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General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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    #2402
    Chips Lovell
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,268 Mod ✭✭✭✭Chips Lovell


    seamus wrote: »
    Are there any more reputable polls supposed to be coming out?

    Be interesting to see if Tuesday night's circus will have made any change.

    Doubt it. They'd need to be out today, since there'll be no reporting on the election tomorrow.


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    #2403
    CrabRevolution
    Registered Users Posts: 2,810 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Britain is easier to predict with its FPTP. STV is not an easy one to call at all and as someone pointed out above just because a party seems to have support doesn't mean they'll reap the rewards in constituencies but just putting up a candidate.

    I was thinking this as well, there seems to be a notion that because SF's national numbers are so high, they'll win every seat they contest. But it has to be a bit more complex than that.

    For example here in Meath West we've 3 seats. Shane Cassells and Damien English are 98% certain to retain their two seats. Johnny Guirke is a councillor and SF nominee in the area, but he's up against Noel French (local councillor and well known personality going back decades, who achieved a record number of votes in the local election last year) and Peadar Tóibín who has a pretty high profile and will be going after much of the same audience SF are.

    Then you've the other FF/FG/Labour candidates who don't stand a chance. It's not impossible, but it's not very likely for Guirke to win a seat for SF here. I can only imagine there's a few situations like this around the country, where despite high national figures, the local maths just don't add up.


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    #2404
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,868 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Chips Lovell wrote: »
    Doubt it. They'd need to be out today, since there'll be no reporting on the election tomorrow.

    Moratorium is only from 2pm; and newspapers can do what they want as its solely a broadcast ban. So you could still get traction from one tonight. But I doubt it also.


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    #2405
    C14N
    Registered Users Posts: 2,656 ✭✭✭C14N


    lozenges wrote: »
    Populist
    Soc Dems - free GP care for anyone with a chronic illness
    Fianna Fail - cut CGT to 25%

    Least populist - Greens (carbon tax)

    Is a capital gains tax cut a populist idea? I would have assume that this was meant to appeal to wealthy executives and investors, as most ordinary people don't have huge amounts of income from capital gains.


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    #2406
    C14N
    Registered Users Posts: 2,656 ✭✭✭C14N


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    I don't think turnout is a good measure.

    If turnout is low, are people alienated or are they just not bothered because things are going OK?

    Or people are just not very interested. Sometimes turnout is low because of lower voter awareness or interest, rather than out of resent or a feeling of disenfranchisement.


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    #2407
    lozenges
    Registered Users Posts: 290 ✭✭lozenges


    C14N wrote: »
    Is a capital gains tax cut a populist idea? I would have assume that this was meant to appeal to wealthy executives and investors, as most ordinary people don't have huge amounts of income from capital gains.

    You could be right, I'm not sure. Some people do feel very strongly about it though, despite it not affecting them very frequently! There are some very heated previous boards threads on the subject...


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    #2408
    loyatemu
    Registered Users Posts: 14,802 ✭✭✭✭loyatemu


    Howlin seems keen to get all the soft left parties around a table to agree a common negotiating position with (probably) FF. I guess it depends how well Labour do, if they only have 5 seats he won't be in a position to organise much.

    Either way it looks like FF will need to add some independents to the soup; I can't see the Greens agreeing to work with the likes of the Healy-Raes given their disdain for all things environmental.


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    #2409
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    L1011 wrote: »
    Moratorium is only from 2pm; and newspapers can do what they want as its solely a broadcast ban. So you could still get traction from one tonight. But I doubt it also.
    They should have election related stuff in the print editions but by 2 pm it starts to slide down on the digital end of things. As for a poll cant see it's worth anyone's while to do one, when there'll be an exit poll in two days.


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    #2410
    C14N
    Registered Users Posts: 2,656 ✭✭✭C14N


    Amirani wrote: »
    I'm not sure I agree though, I'd like it to be ringfenced and used to combat climate change. To keep it progressive, much of it can be dedicated to retrofitting the homes of the less well off and subsidising green energy for them to use.

    I still don't see that as being as equitable as just a dividend though. It's great for homeowners, but renters (who are already generally less wealthy than homeowners) receive nothing from it. The dividend also makes it more popular as a policy, because people like getting a cheque in the mail at the end of the year. If a party (like Sinn Féin), wants to come after it, it becomes a lot harder to argue the case if they say they're going to take away everyone's annual cash reward.

    I think other money should still be spent on environmental causes, but the best thing to do with a carbon tax is to just give it back to people as a reward for not polluting.
    droidus wrote: »
    Wonks are a very small part of the electorate

    I wouldn't be so bold as to call myself or most forum posters "wonks". It's not exactly a forum of economists and political operatives. More likely just people who pay a little more attention to news and discussions.
    droidus wrote: »
    Rightly or wrongly, carbon tax as it is currently framed in an irish context is seen as a tax on citizens. Any tax should be targeted upstream at major polluters, fossil profits, car manufacturers etc. and I completely agree with most of what you've said there. The fee and dividend model seems good, and I support a carbon tax in principle but it seems utterly perverse and inequitable to tax household's carbon emissions when the fossil industry in Europe is subsidized to the tune of €39 billion and the govt is pushing ahead with the disastrous Shannon LNG terminal.

    That's what a carbon tax is. The major polluters are paying the vast majority of the tax. The average citizen is paying a minuscule amount, and if there is a dividend model, they will profit overall from the tax. I also agree with cutting subsidies to fossil fuel industry, but we don't really have the power to tell other governments in Europe what they can and can't subsidize, outside of lobbying for EU regulations for it.


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    #2411
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    loyatemu wrote: »
    Howlin seems keen to get all the soft left parties around a table to agree a common negotiating position with (probably) FF. I guess it depends how well Labour do, if they only have 5 seats he won't be in a position to organise much.

    Either way it looks like FF will need to add some independents to the soup; I can't see the Greens agreeing to work with the likes of the Healy-Raes given their disdain for all things environmental.
    It's a sensible move by Labour and they are looking at three , themselves, SDs and Greens. Regardless of how well they do, it would still be a sizeable block in government forming terms.


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    #2412
    seamus
    Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Turnout's going to be an interesting one.

    On top of it being a Saturday (people often have plans that aren't conducive to dropping by a polling station), you have the rugby match on relatively early.

    I saw someone mentioning the potential for a rush around lunchtime before the match begins. This could also have the effect of turning people away who see a queue and don't want to miss the match.

    After then it'll be much quieter as nobody's going to leave the pub to go and vote. Which all has the potential to see the older vote being a much stronger force than the younger one, which would hand the election to FF.


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    #2413
    Zetor19
    Registered Users Posts: 155 ✭✭Zetor19


    The rugby crowd would be more likely to be fg voters.


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    #2414
    seamus
    Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    I don't really think that D4 stereotype holds up when it comes to internationals.

    The majority of those watching are doing so as an excuse for a few pints and a bit of a laugh. And that's pretty well spread across the political spectrum. Most wouldn't watch a game of rugby from one end of the year to the next.


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    #2415
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,159 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Once you give MHR some stuff for Kerry. he'll dance any jig for you. When he's bought, he'll stay bought. Supposed to have a good friendship with MM.
    Loyatemu, you're giving him very high principles.
    Mattie now might be a different story.


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    #2416
    Banner2theend
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭Banner2theend


    Pat Kenny acting like a tool with Mary Lou on right-wing Newstalk this morning. Sad to see PK selling his soul out to satisfy the establishment. Thankfully he is getting an absolute hammering in social media. Good enough for him is all I'll say for this former RTE employee.


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    #2417
    loyatemu
    Registered Users Posts: 14,802 ✭✭✭✭loyatemu


    Water John wrote: »
    Once you give MHR some stuff for Kerry. he'll dance any jig for you. When he's bought, he'll stay bought. Supposed to have a good friendship with MM.
    Loyatemu, you're giving him very high principles.

    would he vote for a carbon tax, or any measures to reduce agricultural emissions? I doubt it. DHR literally said "God controls the weather"; though if the TG4 poll is to be believed he might be in trouble retaining his seat.


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    #2418
    markodaly
    Registered Users Posts: 14,006 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    The Healy-Rae's can be bought but it will come as a price for any would be government. The public will not look too kindly on it.


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    #2419
    Whitecarstones
    Registered Users Posts: 129 ✭✭Whitecarstones


    Opposition is a crucial part of any government make up.

    But you would think with the dire straits the country is in with regards to health etc, that all parties would put their petty squabbles aside and work together to sort it out.

    Say what you will about Mary Lou, she is a brilliant public speaker and would be a great asset to heading negotiations etc. Same goes for LV and MM. They all do have something to offer and its a pity they are so f*ing childish.

    For me this election campaign has just become a farce. The focus seems to be on their stupid little fights with one another rather than the real issues on hand.

    Also I think in Canada and Norway the different ministerial roles are filled by people with experience in their areas.

    Minister for health = doctor
    Minister for Education = teacher

    And so on.

    It kind of makes sense to me. In this country they are just thrown into the deep end without prior experience. Zappone coming to mind in particular.


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    #2420
    neris
    Registered Users Posts: 20,043 ✭✭✭✭neris


    Whitecarstones wrote: »
    Opposition is a crucial part of any government make up.

    But you would think with the dire straits the country is in with regards to health etc, that all parties would put their petty squabbles aside and work together to sort it out.

    Say what you will about Mary Lou, she is a brilliant public speaker and would be a great asset to heading negotiations etc. Same goes for LV and MM. They all do have something to offer and its a pity they are so f*ing childish.

    For me this election campaign has just become a farce. The focus seems to be on their stupid little fights with one another rather than the real issues on hand.

    Also I think in Canada and Norway the different ministerial roles are filled by people with experience in their areas.

    Minister for health = doctor
    Minister for Education = teacher

    And so on.

    It kind of makes sense to me. In this country they are just thrown into the deep end without prior experience. Zappone coming to mind in particular.

    Havent we had 2 doctors who were ministers for health and didnt really do much.


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    #2421
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,635 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    loyatemu wrote: »
    would he vote for a carbon tax, or any measures to reduce agricultural emissions? I doubt it. DHR literally said "God controls the weather"; though if the TG4 poll is to be believed he might be in trouble retaining his seat.

    Was talking to a guy in work from South Kerry and he implied that DHR was too much of an embarrassment for a lot of Kerry voters.

    I'll believe it when I see it though given that family's stellar electoral record.


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    #2422
    Whitecarstones
    Registered Users Posts: 129 ✭✭Whitecarstones


    neris wrote: »
    Havent we had 2 doctors who were ministers for health and didnt really do much.

    True.


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    #2423
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    markodaly wrote: »
    The Healy-Rae's can be bought but it will come as a price for any would be government. The public will not look too kindly on it.


    Lowry who has adverse findings from the Moriarty Tribunal has been bought for years by FG, and he tops the poll every election in Tipperary and has made no discernible difference to any FG national vote that I have seen.
    The Healy-Rae`s would be no different.


    What can affect a parties national vote is giving independents ministerial positions. I doubt anyone will offer the Healy-Rea`s that.
    Even if they did, they are far too cute to take up the offer.


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    #2424
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    markodaly wrote: »
    Em, they are not pledging to get rid of the USC in this election.
    At least get your facts straight first.

    Your quite right I stand corrected . It was in 2016 they promised it


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    #2425
    Shaney Boy
    Registered Users Posts: 24 ✭Shaney Boy


    I watched the debate with my daughter (first time voter) who was not impressed with "manxplaining" comment. Thought it was very patronising.


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    #2426
    gozunda
    Registered Users Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    Shaney Boy wrote: »
    I watched the debate with my daughter (first time voter) who was not impressed with "manxplaining" comment. Thought it was very patronising.

    I found her contribution to the debate came mainly across as whinging and reactionary. Wasn't impressed at all.


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    #2427
    dmakc
    Registered Users Posts: 954 ✭✭✭dmakc


    Why are the keyboard warriors on facebook all over SF after the debate? Bullying anyone under an RTE / Indo post who dares to question Mary Lou. It's frightening


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    #2428
    ednwireland
    Registered Users Posts: 14,315 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    is it just me or has leo been exposed as a very poor leader, i suspect if theres a heave against him he will be gone pretty quickly.


    i doubt there will be an enda type fight form him.

    My weather

    https://www.ecowitt.net/home/share?authorize=96CT1F



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    #2429
    sid waddell
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    CrabRevolution wrote: »
    I was thinking this as well, there seems to be a notion that because SF's national numbers are so high, they'll win every seat they contest. But it has to be a bit more complex than that.

    For example here in Meath West we've 3 seats. Shane Cassells and Damien English are 98% certain to retain their two seats. Johnny Guirke is a councillor and SF nominee in the area, but he's up against Noel French (local councillor and well known personality going back decades, who achieved a record number of votes in the local election last year) and Peadar Tóibín who has a pretty high profile and will be going after much of the same audience SF are.

    Then you've the other FF/FG/Labour candidates who don't stand a chance. It's not impossible, but it's not very likely for Guirke to win a seat for SF here. I can only imagine there's a few situations like this around the country, where despite high national figures, the local maths just don't add up.
    If the SF vote nationally even vaguely holds up in comparison to polls I'd be astonished be if SF didn't easily win a seat in Meath West.


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    #2430
    C14N
    Registered Users Posts: 2,656 ✭✭✭C14N


    The problem is that you can't really tell people to just put differences aside and sort the problem out when they have fundamentally different views on how the problem can actually be solved. About the only time you ever see that kind of rallying effect in government is when a nation is at war, and as bad as the housing crisis is here, it's not in any way comparable to being at war.

    Mary Lou seems to think you can solve the housing shortage simply by making it illegal for housing to be expensive, and that you can just tax the bejaysis out of rich people and companies to pay for it all, and they won't complain. It's is a really short-sighted and overly simplistic solution that will actually just make the problem worse, but she believes in it passionately. She won't go into government without someone who agrees, and I can only hope nobody with any sense will let her into government while she still clings to them.


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    #2431
    C14N
    Registered Users Posts: 2,656 ✭✭✭C14N


    ednwireland wrote: »
    is it just me or has leo been exposed as a very poor leader, i suspect if theres a heave against him he will be gone pretty quickly.


    i doubt there will be an enda type fight form him.

    I don't know if he's an especially poor leader, but I do think he's personally quite unpopular and comes across as very insensitive a lot of the time, and there's definitely a perception that he's too privileged and well-off to know what problems people are dealing with.


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