General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

CFlat

WM18 wrote: »

obvious disproportionate SF bashing compared to other parties....

I'm not a Sinn Fein supporter but whatever "disproportionate SF bashing..." you perceive is going on, it certainly doesn't appear to be affecting them in the recent polls.

Chips Lovell

WM18 wrote: »

obvious disproportionate SF bashing compared to other parties....

Certainly wouldn't call the Irish Times coverage "SF bashing". Most of it related to developments in the campaign, where McDonald's handling of the Quinn issue (and Murphy's much delayed apology) put the spotlight back on the party's links to terrorism and organised crime.

That's the way the news works. If the conduct of a member or members of a party raises ethical or legal questions, then of course that party is going to be subject to media scrutiny. That isn't "bashing".

I don't see why Sinn Fein should enjoy any special treatment on that front.

is_that_so

WM18 wrote: »

obvious disproportionate SF bashing compared to other parties....

Well, FG have been bashing FF, who have been bashing SF & FG. Everyone else has been bashing FF, FG & SF to a lesser extent. It's just another election campaign.

UDAWINNER

I think a lot of people see it as SF bashing because the independent, times newstalk and rte have many columnists/ panelists who are ex fg/ff/pd/unionist policticians. Can you name one ex sf policitian or someone who doesn't attack them at every turn in their employ?

sid waddell

votecounts wrote: »

Michael McGrath will be the next leader of FF imo, McGuiness hasn't a snowballs chance of getting it. Micheal Martin should never have been leader in the first place, reminds me of monty burns.

If Michael McGrath is the next leader of Fianna Fail, the rest of the Dail will be licking their lips. A complete personality drain and was anti-choice. Jim O'Callaghan is the obvious choice.

hotmail.com

Cyclepath wrote: »

The dictionary definition of populism is:

"a political approach that strives to appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups"

Therefore pretty much anything punted by SF, or the left wing parties is going to be populist.

That doesn't mean populist policies are wrong, but equally it doesn't rule out policies that create a racist or anti immigrant sentiment if sufficient numbers of ordinary people feel concerned about an issue.

The question is whether any morality is applied to the policies. Just because a lot of ordinary people want something doesn't mean it's the right thing to do.

Yet again, populism linked with left wing. The FF and FG manifestos are promising mad stuff and this isn't seen as populist.

PopePalpatine

Water John wrote: »

PBP are left populists who'll ride any old horse. They have so little understanding of the climate issue, they simply went with a vegan type call, to half the national herd.

In fairness, it's not like they'll lose many votes with that policy.

Chips Lovell

UDAWINNER wrote: »

I think a lot of people see it as SF bashing because the independent, times newstalk and rte have many columnists/ panelists who are ex fg/ff/pd/unionist policticians. Can you name one ex sf policitian or someone who doesn't attack them at every turn in their employ?

Well, off the top of my head, in the past week or two in the Irish Times there was:

• Fintan O'Toole:It is time for Sinn Féin to come in from the cold
• Una Mullaly: Those attacking Sinn Féin have become cheerleaders in reverse

But let's not lose sight of the issue at hand. What unfolded this week involved people associated with that party murdering a man and a senior member of the party seemingly attempting to justify that murder by suggesting that he had it coming. By anyone's logic that is an incredibly serious issue and will, of course, generate intensive media scrutiny. Do you think it would have been any different if it involved people associated with Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, or Labour?

But more broadly, every political party can expect media attention on ethical and legal shortcomings. And there shouldn't be an expectation that this attention will get doled out evenly. It will be in proportion to the amount of ethical and legal shortcomings that party has. It's a simple fact that Sinn Fein has far more skeletons in its cupboards than the rest of the parties, so it's not surprising that it finds itself under the spotlight so often.

Itssoeasy

The weather isn't looking that clever tomorrow or more so tomorrow afternoon/evening. This might lower the turnout a bit. Anyway as much as I love seeing the polls in this thread and the people who posted them are sound people but the polls for some fairly big events over the last four years haven't been all that good(the US election poll was right but the EC is the one that counts) so the exit poll tomorrow at 10PM will be the one to tell us if the opinion polls were right or a little over/under valued.

Rigor Mortis

sid waddell wrote: »

Jim O'Callaghan is the obvious choice.

Are we holding elections for dog catcher?

golfball37

sid waddell wrote: »

If Michael McGrath is the next leader of Fianna Fail, the rest of the Dail will be licking their lips. A complete personality drain and was anti-choice. Jim O'Callaghan is the obvious choice.

He’s the only choice.

lozenges

hotmail.com wrote: »

Is giving free GP care to people with chronic illnesses considered populist. It sounds pretty decent to me for a civilised society.

This is the very issue of this term populist.

Hopefully it becomes redundant and we can go back to saying you don't agree with a policy or that the policy is complete bullsh*t.

It would be fine if we had 1. Enough money 2. Didn't already have a crisis of recruitment of doctors and 3. Specifically a crisis in GP recruitment.

Rural older GPs across the country will be retiring with noone to replace them. It already takes a week in some cases to get a GP appointment. If a service is made free then the utilisation will increase. How long will it take to get a GP appointment then?

Of course in an ideal world it would be great but saying it without acknowledging or attempting to address any of the feasibility issues are why I think it's populist. It sounds great but it's just not credible.

L1011

golfball37 wrote: »

He’s the only choice.

Won't stop O'Cuiv, possibly Dooley and if she somehow gets re-elected, Hanafin from running though.

Any of them would probably shed votes because Martin is inexplicably popular.

charlie14

L1011 wrote: »

Won't stop O'Cuiv, possibly Dooley and if she somehow gets re-elected, Hanafin from running though.

Any of them would probably shed votes because Martin is inexplicably popular.

I doubt they would get half a dozen votes between the three of them.

Brussels Sprout

blackwhite wrote: »

Paddy Power over/unders (odds 5-6 unless stated)

% FPV
FF 26.55%
FG 22.5%
SF 21.55% (under 8-11; over 10-11)
Green 8.55% (under 4-7; over 5-4)
Lab 6.55% (under 3-10; over 2-1)

Seats
FF 54.5
FG 35.5
SF 28.5 (under Evens; over 8-11)
Green 10.5
Lab 5.5


App isn't showing odds for other parties.

Offering 5-1 on another election before end of 2020.

I threw a few bob on the over earlier on.

L1011

L1011 wrote: »

Won't stop O'Cuiv, possibly Dooley and if she somehow gets re-elected, Hanafin from running though.

Any of them would probably shed votes because Martin is inexplicably popular.

O'Cuiv is 69 I believe, this is likely his last election.

beggars_bush

Deleted User wrote: »

O'Cuiv is 69 I believe, this is likely his last election.

Hopefully

Dank Janniels

The weather + the rugby may have an effect on turnout. Or on the other hand it may spur people on to get out and vote early!

Fr Tod Umptious

Itssoeasy wrote: »

The weather isn't looking that clever tomorrow or more so tomorrow afternoon/evening. This might lower the turnout a bit. Anyway as much as I love seeing the polls in this thread and the people who posted them are sound people but the polls for some fairly big events over the last four years haven't been all that good(the US election poll was right but the EC is the one that counts) so the exit poll tomorrow at 10PM will be the one to tell us if the opinion polls were right or a little over/under valued.

I think there will be a late bounce for FG.

There are a lot of people like myself who are pretty content with the way the country is going.
Unemployment is low, the economy is going well and they have done well with the Brexit situation, making sure that the border was an important issue.

FG may not win the most seats but I can see them doing better than polls suggest.

The wet day will help too, as the protest vote is less likely to materialize to the same extend onna good day.

Darc19

Too many variables for anyone to call this.

Saturday voting
Bad weather
The demise of hard left
The memory of ff
The current government
The history of SF

Greens will probably be the big winners both in decent #1's and being transfer friendly.

I'll be very surprised if SF do anything near their poll standings especially with publicity from last few days. (younger voters are very fickle)
My own guess is that there will be little change with FF slightly ahead

Ff/FG mid 40's in seats
SF 20/22
Green 12/13
Lab 6/7

Others 30

FF led minority with FG support

FrancieBrady

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I think there will be a late bounce for FG.

There are a lot of people like myself who are pretty content with the way the country is going.
Unemployment is low, the economy is going well and they have done well with the Brexit situation, making sure that the border was an important issue.

FG may not win the most seats but I can see them doing better than polls suggest.

The wet day will help too, as the protest vote is less likely to materialize to the same extend onna good day.

I said after the debates that FG might catch up to FF. The 3rd 4th and 5th seats are going to be interesting and the wind could go out of a few sails yet.

ninebeanrows

Michael is 1/25 shot to be Taoiseach.

There must be some strong internal polling showing good FF numbers.

Water John

There will be a drop in the number of Inds. Nowhere near 30.
All the signs are FG know they're going to have a difficult election.

boardise

Snow Garden wrote: »

I wonder when though do we start blaming the permanent government i.e. the senior civil servants and department heads. They must be to blame for a lot of the incompetence and yet get a free ride while their bosses front up to the electorate. They are untouchable.

I'm also amazed that Hospital managers are never called to account and grilled in public for their stewardship...or the head of the HSE for that matter.
Don't know why so much personal vilification is directed at the Minister who provides huge increased budgets when local management must be a large factor in producing different outcomes ( as happens across the various hospitals)

moby2101

Weather conditions will be a factor, FG will have a sizable positive shift from their poor polling numbers. Poor return for independents and Labour, SF up 5-8 seats.
Ffffffing greens wil be the kingmakers of the next dail

a very cool kid

boardise wrote: »

I'm also amazed that Hospital managers are never called to account and grilled in public for their stewardship...or the head of the HSE for that matter.
Don't know why so much personal vilification is directed at the Minister who provides huge increased budgets when local management must be a large factor in producing different outcomes ( as happens across the various hospitals)

Who'd ever take a job as a hospital master if you know you have this coming? No lack of vacancies for medical professionals

ShylockWept

Water John wrote: »

There will be a drop in the number of Inds. Nowhere near 30.
All the signs are FG know they're going to have a difficult election.

I'm not so sure. Don't get me wrong - I'm no fan. But Leo did quite well in the debates. I think the FF-FG margin will be less than people are expecting - mid-40s sounds right. I think Labour will do marginally better - they are more credible than they were in 2016. I predict they will gain back seats in Louth and Dublin South Central.

My prediction: FG (47)+ LAB (10) + GREEN (13) + SD (5) + IND (5)

An Ciarraioch

After totting up the constituencies, I came back with:

FF 56
FG 34
SF 31
Ind 15
Green 10
Labour 8
Soc Dems 4
Aontú 1
Green 1

Gave SF possibly unlikely gains in Longford and Mayo, so a conservative predictor might give FF and FG each one extra.

Wombatman

I mean this is the home page of the Indo GE 2020 section right now. Shameless and more than a little worrying TBH.



If they were so concerned about the Paul Quinn murder why not follow it up at the time?

Darc19

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

After totting up the constituencies, I came back with:

FF 56
FG 34
SF 31
Ind 15
Green 10
Labour 8
Soc Dems 4
Aontú 1
Green 1

Gave SF possibly unlikely gains in Longford and Mayo, so a conservative predictor might give FF and FG each one extra.

Not a chance in hell of sf at 31

They are not transfer friendly and will struggle on later counts.

If they have a really good day, 25.

I'm slightly biased as I have a good bet at 6/4 (now evs) for under 28.5 and I expect to collect