General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

is_that_so

ForestFire wrote: »

I think exit polls and tallies should be banned. Now it probable makes no difference in Ireland due to the complicated counting system, but...

when world leader declare victory based on exit polls or incomplete counting from a small sample(and the opposition even conceed!) , why bother asking everyone to vote in the first place?

Remember Leo declaring the green wave vote and he was listening(increase our taxes) , when in fact, the final counting showed a much different green vote.

Tallies are often a very good early indicator as the people doing it have been at it for years.

FrancieBrady

ForestFire wrote: »

I think exit polls and tallies should be banned. Now it probable makes no difference in Ireland due to the complicated counting system, but...

when world leader declare victory based on exit polls or incomplete counting from a small sample(and the opposition even conceed!) , why bother asking everyone to vote in the first place?

They do actually finish the counts.

Bannasidhe

ForestFire wrote: »

I think exit polls and tallies should be banned. Now it probable makes no difference in Ireland due to the complicated counting system, but...

It's all part of the spectator sport that is the counting of the votes.

It's honestly my favourite spectator sport. And not just mine, I once explained the Irish system to a Cuban who was fascinated by how we were glued to the screens in work, shouting out counts, rushing it when there was a declaration. He thought we were mad.
Now he's an addict too - watches online from Cuba.

Sir Oxman

Tally men and women are a great feature of Irish elections.

FrancieBrady

Bannasidhe wrote: »

It's all part of the spectator sport that is the counting of the votes.

It's honestly my favourite spectator sport. And not just mine, I once explained the Irish system to a Cuban who was fascinated by how we were glued to the screens in work, shouting out counts, rushing it when there was a declaration. He thought we were mad.
Now he's an addict too - watches online from Cuba.

I do love a good count...as the actress said to Dracula.

Itssoeasy

C14N wrote: »

He was elected in his constituency, chosen as party leader, and then given a vote of confidence by the Dáil. That's really about as elected as any Taoiseach has ever been.

And also no Taoiseach was elected that. They were as you pointed out elected by the voters of their constituency and then by the dail
.

blackcard

Obviously the tide is out for FG and in for SF. I expect the momentum to continue. I think FG are going to struggle with second preferences also. A term on the opposition benches may do them no harm. We will see how SF manage in government. I think a term as the junior party in government is preferable to having them as senior partner down the road. Not sure that there are any easy solutions to health and housing

Uriel.

blackcard wrote: »

Obviously the tide is out for FG and in for SF. I expect the momentum to continue. I think FG are going to struggle with second preferences also. A term on the opposition benches may do them no harm. We will see how SF manage in government. I think a term as the junior party in government is preferable to having them as senior partner down the road. Not sure that there are any easy solutions to health and housing

Don't think they'll (SF) be part of Government following this election.

cameramonkey

blackcard wrote: »

Obviously the tide is out for FG and in for SF. I expect the momentum to continue. I think FG are going to struggle with second preferences also. A term on the opposition benches may do them no harm. We will see how SF manage in government. I think a term as the junior party in government is preferable to having them as senior partner down the road. Not sure that there are any easy solutions to health and housing

Haven't you heard FF dont do coalitions with SF. How do you expect them to be in government?

KevRossi

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Tally men and women are a great feature of Irish elections.

Also means various politicians and parties can totally ignore certain areas for the nest 5 years based on the low votes they get out of certain boxes. It benefits the politicians far more than the electorate.

Sir Oxman

KevRossi wrote: »

Also means various politicians and parties can totally ignore certain areas for the nest 5 years based on the low votes they get out of certain boxes. It benefits the politicians far more than the electorate.

there is that!
Or, they could target those areas to gain votes.

Itssoeasy

Sir Oxman wrote: »

there is that!
Or, they could target those areas to gain votes.

Probably saves the cost of posters and the shoes if you don't go to areas you won't get votes in regardless of how good a candidate you may be.

FrancieBrady

cameramonkey wrote: »

Haven't you heard FF dont do coalitions with SF. How do you expect them to be in government?

One way or another they'll be a big influence on government.

I think when the dust settles you'll see a hugely energised SF north and south.

robman60

I enjoyed what I saw of the TG4 debate. A very confrontational Seán Kyne. Seemed to have an arrogance up there. The only other interesting character was the PBP guy because he kind of fitted my image of what PBP people are like.

Kyne's closing remarks were all about Brexit. I think FG need to realise rapidly that rightly or wrongly, people consider Brexit old news. I guess they don't have another trump to play though.

Snow Garden

Can we find where Vincent Browne is hiding and get him to do one show with the party leaders? He would rip them all to shreds!

Snow Garden

robman60 wrote: »

I enjoyed what I saw of the TG4 debate. A very confrontational Seán Kyne. Seemed to have an arrogance up there. The only other interesting character was the PBP guy because he kind of fitted my image of what PBP people are like.

Kyne's closing remarks were all about Brexit. I think FG need to realise rapidly that rightly or wrongly, people consider Brexit old news. I guess they don't have another trump to play though.

Yep and Kyne is in real danger of losing his seat. I hear his nest is well feathered though.

deanh

droidus wrote: »

Survation have a good record in the UK. I wouldn't discount that poll out of hand.

The big surprise is why Sinn Fein are using a British based polling company. Survation don't have a good reputation at all. They have dodgy links to Aaron Banks, leave.eu, and Nigel Farage.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-06/brexit-pollster-faces-scrutiny-over-secret-political-operations
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-06/brexit-pollster-faces-scrutiny-over-secret-political-operations

FrancieBrady

deanh wrote: »

The big surprise is why Sinn Fein are using a British based polling company. Survation don't have a good reputation at all. They have dodgy links to Aaron Banks, leave.eu, and Nigel Farage.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-06/brexit-pollster-faces-scrutiny-over-secret-political-operations
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-06/brexit-pollster-faces-scrutiny-over-secret-political-operations

Treat any polls with caution would be my advice. And news outlets owned by billionaires with presidential ambitions.

sid waddell

deanh wrote: »

The big surprise is why Sinn Fein are using a British based polling company. Survation don't have a good reputation at all. They have dodgy links to Aaron Banks, leave.eu, and Nigel Farage.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-06/brexit-pollster-faces-scrutiny-over-secret-political-operations
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-06/brexit-pollster-faces-scrutiny-over-secret-political-operations

Depends which angle you're talking about as regards reputation. They have a very good record in terms of accuracy in recent years.

easypazz

cameramonkey wrote: »

Haven't you heard FF dont do coalitions with SF. How do you expect them to be in government?

FF/SF coalition is most likely outcome according to Paddy Power.

blackcard

cameramonkey wrote: »

Haven't you heard FF dont do coalitions with SF. How do you expect them to be in government?

FF said up the 80's said that they would never go into coalition with anyone. The 2 probable outcomes are FF & FG or FF & SF. I think at this stage, FG would welcome a period in opposition. FF want to be in power as does SF. Both will state that they are doing it in the interest of the nation and to avoid another election.

L1011

That debate was astounding uneventful, helped by heavy use of muting microphones.

Nobody really came out too badly except Coppinger, unable to answer questions or string a sentence together.

Hurrache

Snow Garden wrote: »

Can we find where Vincent Browne is hiding and get him to do one show with the party leaders? He would rip them all to shreds!

Richard Boyd Barrett has him locked in his basement, it's the only obvious explanation for Browne making YouTube videos advocating we vote for him.

Sir Oxman

blackcard wrote: »

FF said up the 80's said that they would never go into coalition with anyone. The 2 probable outcomes are FF & FG or FF & SF. I think at this stage, FG would welcome a period in opposition. FF want to be in power as does SF. Both will state that they are doing it in the interest of the nation and to avoid another election.

I cannot see how Martin can get himself off the cross he's built for himself.
How can he justify coalescing with a party he has described as having a shadowy unelected committee behind it making all the decisions.


I know politicians of all hues are lying swines but that's a fairly large hill to climb down even for him.


PS I wish all involved in the SF rhetoric (RTE, FF, FG, radio, newspapers etc) would come out and show us proof at least of what they talk about in regards to SF.

FrancieBrady

Sir Oxman wrote: »

I cannot see how Martin can get himself off the cross he's built for himself.
How can he justify coalescing with a party he has described as having a shadowy unelected committee behind it making all the decisions.


I know politicians of all hues are lying swines but that's a fairly large hill to climb down even for him.


PS I wish all involved in the SF rhetoric (RTE, FF, FG, radio, newspapers etc) would come out and show us proof at least of what they talk about in regards to SF.

'for the good of the country'. Martin's go to 'woe is me' phrase.

easypazz

blackcard wrote: »

FF said up the 80's said that they would never go into coalition with anyone. The 2 probable outcomes are FF & FG or FF & SF. I think at this stage, FG would welcome a period in opposition. FF want to be in power as does SF. Both will state that they are doing it in the interest of the nation and to avoid another election.

If FG do confidence & supply or enter coalition with FF, with only say 35 seats, they could be cannibalised in the next GE by Sinn Fein, same as Labour in 2016.

They will be safer rebuilding in opposition.

Hurrache

Sir Oxman wrote: »

PS I wish all involved in the SF rhetoric (RTE, FF, FG, radio, newspapers etc) would come out and show us proof at least of what they talk about in regards to SF.

What have they said that you need evidence for and are sceptical of?

SF have dug all their own holes, something their pretty familiar with. {OK, that was too obvious but I couldn't pass it)

easypazz

Sir Oxman wrote: »

I cannot see how Martin can get himself off the cross he's built for himself.
How can he justify coalescing with a party he has described as having a shadowy unelected committee behind it making all the decisions.


I know politicians of all hues are lying swines but that's a fairly large hill to climb down even for him.


PS I wish all involved in the SF rhetoric (RTE, FF, FG, radio, newspapers etc) would come out and show us proof at least of what they talk about in regards to SF.

Once the election is over he wont care. Being the boss is all that will bother him.

Sir Oxman

FrancieBrady wrote: »

'for the good of the country'. Martin's go to 'woe is me' phrase.

But it is a REALLY large hill to climb down from.

Sierra Oscar

Plenty of rumors that Paschal Donohoe's seat is gone in Dublin Central. Fine Gael apparently feel there won't be enough first preferences to elect a Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael TD and it will be a dogfight for the final seat. It's not beyond the realm of possibility if Mary Lou ends up having a massive surplus. I would imagine her transfers will favour Fianna Fáil to Fine Gael.

If Paschal was to loose his seat then it will be a wipeout for Fine Gael.

https://twitter.com/DecDaly1/status/1225514241249161219