General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

Sir Oxman

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Plenty of rumors that Paschal Donohoe's seat is gone in Dublin Central. If he was to loose his seat then it will be a wipeout for Fine Gael.

https://twitter.com/DecDaly1/status/1225514241249161219

I think FG ran two here for some nuts reason (an extra seat available doesn't cut it)

It's only since 2011 they got a foothold back there.


Wonderful.:D

Hurrache

It's not really rumour, moreso someone reading something into the reasons behind a flier. Sure they all ask for your number 1. Could well be true all the same that he may lose his seat, he doesn't have much appeal or charisma.

hotmail.com

Dublin Central isn't exactly Fine Gael heartland. He's lucky the constituency expanded to 4 seats.

I can't see Mary Fitz getting in there for FF. More likely to be Gary Gannon or Christy Burke.

Fann Linn

Hurrache wrote: »

It's not really rumour, moreso someone reading something into the reasons behind a flier. Sure they all ask for your number 1. Could well be true all the same that he may lose his seat, he doesn't have much appeal or charisma.

It would be nice if he did lose out all the same,

Sierra Oscar

Hurrache wrote: »

It's not really rumour, moreso someone reading something into the reasons behind a flier. Sure they all ask for your number 1. Could well be true all the same that he may lose his seat, he doesn't have much appeal or charisma.

Plenty of chatter on the ground in the actual constituency amongst the different campaigns. The flier is just a reference.

Fine Gael are nervous. They polled 11% in Dublin Central during the 2002 meltdown. The seat is gone if that comes to pass this time around.

golfball37

I don’t like FG but Pascal is an alright sort.

L1011

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Plenty of rumors that Paschal Donohoe's seat is gone in Dublin Central. Fine Gael apparently feel there won't be enough first preferences to elect a Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael TD and it will be a dogfight for the final seat. It's not beyond the realm of possibility if Mary Lou ends up having a massive surplus. I would imagine her transfers will favour Fianna Fáil to Fine Gael.

Looks extremely similar to the last minute leaflets Durkan fired out in 2011 in Kildare North. Possibly worked for him at the expense of his younger constituency mate.

FrancieBrady

Sir Oxman wrote: »

But it is a REALLY large hill to climb down from.

He has used it throughout this campaign to absolve himself. He has no scruples in my opinion. He will either do it, or get shoved aside by the split and infighting in FF.

Sierra Oscar

Irish Examiner front page tomorrow.

In a sign of how nervous the party is, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe chose to appear on Today FM's Last Word with Matt Cooper from his constituency rather than in studio, which was seen as significant.

sporina

i think that there should be a "spoil" option on the ballot paper actually..

hotmail.com

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Irish Examiner front page tomorrow.

Noel Rock must be a goner as well at this rate.

Sir Oxman

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Irish Examiner front page tomorrow.

'Source blasts D4 Boys'


That source would be correct.


I'll miss them on Callan's Kicks though.:D

Sierra Oscar

hotmail.com wrote: »

Noel Rock must be a goner as well at this rate.

Absolute no hoper I would imagine. His seat was extremely marginal in 2016 as it was. He actually polled lower than the Fianna Fáil candidate but was lucky to take the last seat on transfers. He would have to increase his vote a fair bit to keep the seat given their transfer issues. It's unlikely he will buck the national trend.

hotmail.com

C14N wrote: »

Is a capital gains tax cut a populist idea? I would have assume that this was meant to appeal to wealthy executives and investors, as most ordinary people don't have huge amounts of income from capital gains.

Is giving free GP care to people with chronic illnesses considered populist. It sounds pretty decent to me for a civilised society.

This is the very issue of this term populist.

Hopefully it becomes redundant and we can go back to saying you don't agree with a policy or that the policy is complete bullsh*t.

Brussels Sprout

easypazz wrote: »

FF/SF coalition is most likely outcome according to Paddy Power.

It is but that market is nuts. It's like a golf tournament or the grand national. There are so many possible outcomes that they are all individually unlikely.

PP have FF/SF @ 3/1 at the moment which probably means that they reckon it's at least 4/1. That would give it a probability of <20%

Brussels Sprout

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Absolute no hoper I would imagine. His seat was extremely marginal in 2016 as it was. He actually polled lower than the Fianna Fáil candidate but was lucky to take the last seat on transfers. He would have to increase his vote a fair bit to keep the seat given their transfer issues. It's unlikely he will buck the national trend.

Delighted for him if he does lose it. I recall him going to town on John Delaney after the tide had finally turned on him near the end (when it was deemed politically safe to do so). Then it came out that he had been personally contacting Delaney looking for tickets for Ireland matches before all that.

Peregrinus

sporina wrote: »

i think that there should be a "spoil" option on the ballot paper actually..

Ah. But how do we record a ballot where you have tried to fill out the "spoil" option, but made a hames of it?

retalivity

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Irish Examiner front page tomorrow.

In a sign of how nervous the party is, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe chose to appear on Today FM's Last Word with Matt Cooper from his constituency rather than in studio, which was seen as significant.

His constituency is 1.5km from the studio, its not like hes running in Donegal!!

is_that_so

Just a commentary on the influence of transfers and how important it is to be "in the frame".
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2020-why-transfers-may-not-be-a-deciding-factor-1.4164469

is_that_so

hotmail.com wrote: »

Is giving free GP care to people with chronic illnesses considered populist. It sounds pretty decent to me for a civilised society.

This is the very issue of this term populist.

Hopefully it becomes redundant and we can go back to saying you don't agree with a policy or that the policy is complete bullsh*t.

Most things that people like to see a government do could be considered populist and in a bag of election goodies there will be things we can all get on board with. It's when you get into abolishing things, targeting groups people have issues with or seemingly solving every one of society's ills that populism deservedly gets a bad name. There are very good reasons why complex problems can rarely be solved by simplistic policy proposals but they can be good for votes.

C14N

hotmail.com wrote: »

Is giving free GP care to people with chronic illnesses considered populist. It sounds pretty decent to me for a civilised society.

This is the very issue of this term populist.

Hopefully it becomes redundant and we can go back to saying you don't agree with a policy or that the policy is complete bullsh*t.

Yes, it is, but as I said in the other thread, being populist doesn't make it necessarily wrong or mean I don't agree with it.

I see sheep

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

It is but that market is nuts. It's like a golf tournament or the grand national. There are so many possible outcomes that they are all individually unlikely.

PP have FF/SF @ 3/1 at the moment which probably means that they reckon it's at least 4/1. That would give it a probability of <20%

I'm tempted by the 8/1 FF minority, SF might not want to go in with them at this stage and a FF minority might last 6 months or something, then SF will run candidates in every seat in 6 months time and try to be the biggest party.

I'd appreciate if someone who knows more than me tells me why this won't happen before I bet on it! Ta

zimmermania

Sir Oxman wrote: »

I cannot see how Martin can get himself off the cross he's built for himself.
How can he justify coalescing with a party he has described as having a shadowy unelected committee behind it making all the decisions.


I know politicians of all hues are lying swines but that's a fairly large hill to climb down even for him.


PS I wish all involved in the SF rhetoric (RTE, FF, FG, radio, newspapers etc) would come out and show us proof at least of what they talk about in regards to SF.

The fact that nobody in the bar saw McCartney beaten to death,or saw the "cleaners"come in tells a lot and thats just one of many incidents,the balaclavas found in the van of Snodsers postering crew in Dublin....

C14N

is_that_so wrote: »

He beat the rest of them comfortably.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Fianna_F%C3%A1il_leadership_election

I wasn't suggesting there was anything untoward about him winning, just that I find it odd that he's still leading the party. Was the last leadership election really in 2011? Do they not have leadership elections more often than every 10 years?

ForestFire wrote: »

when world leader declare victory based on exit polls or incomplete counting from a small sample(and the opposition even conceed!) , why bother asking everyone to vote in the first place?

What else are you supposed to do? Get a representative sample of the population and ask only them to vote? How would you even know what's representative until you tally the votes?

Also, early tallies are usually right, but they're not final. They keep counting for a reason, and upsets do happen. Early Brexit counting had that referendum failing and later results overturned that.

easypazz wrote: »

FF/SF coalition is most likely outcome according to Paddy Power.

Paddy Power is heavily influenced by punters placing bets. If a lot of people bet on FF/SF, they have to shorten the odds to hedge their bets. I'm not pretending to know enough about the internal machinations of the parties that I would rule it out completely, but I have a very hard time seeing FF going in with Sinn Féin after all they've said about them and their ideological differences, especially if some other coalition could be assembled, or even just confidence and supply. Leo Varadkar was shockingly not even ruling out something like that in the 3-way RTE debate.

Snow Garden

golfball37 wrote: »

I don’t like FG but Pascal is an alright sort.

I get the strong sense over the past few days that many FG TDs spent the last 5 years taking care of themselves rather than their constituents. And I am not talking about the obvious ones like Murphy. I guess new FG TDs have an inferiority complex to FF and thought they might lose their seat next time out (let's be honest, FF have won most of the elections since 1932).

is_that_so

C14N wrote: »

I wasn't suggesting there was anything untoward about him winning, just that I find it odd that he's still leading the party. Was the last leadership election really in 2011? Do they not have leadership elections more often than every 10 years?

Given the economic events surrounding FF and their continued attempts at rehabilitation, a new leader is still way down the list of priorities, even now.

Cyclepath

The dictionary definition of populism is:

"a political approach that strives to appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups"

Therefore pretty much anything punted by SF, or the left wing parties is going to be populist.

That doesn't mean populist policies are wrong, but equally it doesn't rule out policies that create a racist or anti immigrant sentiment if sufficient numbers of ordinary people feel concerned about an issue.

The question is whether any morality is applied to the policies. Just because a lot of ordinary people want something doesn't mean it's the right thing to do.

L1011

Coppingers posters are getting increasingly desperate warning that's she's likely gone

robman60

Anyone with local knowledge got a good candidate shout that the bookies see as unlikely? Have a fiver free bet with Ladbroke that I'd like to use at the election but I don't see any value jumping out at me.

seamus

Snow Garden wrote: »

I get the strong sense over the past few days that many FG TDs spent the last 5 years taking care of themselves rather than their constituents. And I am not talking about the obvious ones like Murphy. I guess new FG TDs have an inferiority complex to FF and thought they might lose their seat next time out (let's be honest, FF have won most of the elections since 1932).

3 elections in a row would be monumental for FG tbh.

Kenny stood down in order to leave on a high because he had achieved what no other FG leader had - two elections won back-to-back.

So even from day one the stage was set for a FG defeat at the next election. I expect all FG TDs, including Varadkar, have always expected to lose this one, hence the somewhat level/muted approach. For the most part they've let FF & SF get down and fight in the mud, probably fully expecting that there's no point in FG fighting a battle they're statistically nearly guaranteed to lose.