General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

FrancieBrady

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Utter nonsence.

Ireland is a laggard with regards to climate change. Our government and most of the other parties have dragged their feet on the issue and this election is no different. Most parties in Ireland have shown little ambition on climate change. We are facing significant fines as a result. We can't afford another government blocking climate action at EU level or holding us back from the transition to a green economy.

The Greens are running in every part of the country and are competative in several rural constituencies, such as Kerry. As for being obsolete, they are about to quadruple their seats in the Dáil.

Yeh sure.

But the Greens are not going to change that. Compliance with EU legislation and penalties and growing awareness will.

The Greens as some separate ideology party won't. They don't have the clout. They would be better working in telly and radio and in consultancy role. And Ryan needs to trade in the diesel car even if it costs him a few bucks.

Imreoir2

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yeh sure.

But the Greens are not going to change that. Compliance with EU legislation and penalties and growing awareness will.

The Greens as some separate ideology party won't. They don't have the clout. They would be better working in telly and radio and in consultancy role. And Ryan needs to trade in the diesel car even if it costs him a few bucks.

The growth of support for the Green Party in the Local/European elections has forced other parties to take the climate issue seriously. The threat of the Green party taking their seats from them in Europe, on councils and in the Dáil has forced the main parties to get serious on climate action.

The Green Party is a party of government. Being one of a small number of parties that can privide a realistic coalition partner for the next government will mean that the next government will likely have Green ministers implementing Green policy.

FrancieBrady

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The growth of support for the Green Party in the Local/European elections has forced other parties to take the climate issue seriously. The threat of the Green party taking their seats from them in Europe, on councils and in the Dáil has forced the main parties to get serious on climate action.

The Green Party is a party of government. Being one of a small number of parties that can privide a realistic coalition partner for the next government will mean that the next government will likely have Green ministers implementing Green policy.

We have to take climate change seriously...that is what is causing the change. The Irish Green party have been faffing around the periphery, over moralizing about this stuff for 30 years? Certainly 20. They served as useful stooges to a government, as a succession of smaller parties have. Essentially empowering the diminishing power swap parties. They won some less than earth saving legislative victories that generally cost the taxpayer. Woo Hoo.
What has ushered in their agenda has been world awareness and EU legislation.
We'll all be Green going forward.

Chips Lovell

But this is a murder we're talking about here. Are you actually claiming that the only reason they care about it is because it involves Sinn Fein? This reason this murder is an election issue is because there was a development. If McDonald had said something similar about the McConville murder, then that would have been all over the news.

Perhaps you should reflect on what you've said here, because it comes across as quite callous. Ask yourself, if the murder involved members of another party, would your reaction be the same. Would you be looking at the newspapers and tut-tutting thinking "they really need to lay off bashing Fianna Fail".

An Ciarraioch

UDAWINNER wrote: »

Well in just under 21 Hours we will have the exit poll and this give us a fair idea of the election outcome will be. Im going to put the SF seats at 24/25, FF will get mid 50's and the rest I am unsure of. Turnout will be lower than expected due to the weather 55-60%.
I am sure there will be snipes from both sides when the results come out , but anyway regardless of your political persuasion make sure you vote later today.
Take care.

Looking at the 2016 version, it got the FG, Ind and Labour percentages broadly accurate, but underestimated FF by 3%, overestimated SF by 2%, and slightly inflated the smaller parties:

https://www.thejournal.ie/rte-exit-poll-2627678-Feb2016/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Irish_general_election#Voting_summary

LuckyLloyd

A feud between people in South Armagh 13 years ago that had nothing to do with politics then clearly should have nothing to do with a general election in Ireland now that has been fought on housing, health, tax and the climate. All the faux moralising from you Chips Lovell won’t change that. It stinks and you damn well know it does.

is_that_so

L1011 wrote: »

Won't stop O'Cuiv, possibly Dooley and if she somehow gets re-elected, Hanafin from running though.

Any of them would probably shed votes because Martin is inexplicably popular.

He hasn't unduly upset people and keeps doing the mea culpa and mostly seems reasonable, not a level of humility that one can attribute to the other blowhards.

NIMAN

Are people seeing a love-in between the media and FG that I'm missing for the last few years?

Has there not been near constant health, homelessness, crime stories etc for the last 5 years? Because I've been seeing them. It's all over the media, both press and tv.

If anything, id say the media in Ireland are more FF than FG.

Darc19

Dank Janniels wrote: »

Afew Inds will support FF aswell- Mattie McGrath is ex-FF
The 2 Healy Reas - their father did several years ago
Noel Grellish- Previously in PDs
Possibly Michael Fitzmaurice
That Collins guy

Likely that only one healyrae will be elected.

Danny was never a great TD and was even too whacky for Kerry people.

Pete_Cavan

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

A feud between people in South Armagh 13 years ago that had nothing to do with politics then clearly should have nothing to do with a general election in Ireland now that has been fought on housing, health, tax and the climate. All the faux moralising from you Chips Lovell won’t change that. It stinks and you damn well know it does.

In fairness, the political connections to this murder is a far more worthy news story than the political connections of a woman falling off a swing but I'd say the later got more coverage at the time.

is_that_so

blackcard wrote: »

I don't think that there will be an FG bounce. After each debate there was an expectation that their vote would increase but they continued to fall to 17% and still falling. Hard to see them getting 2nd preferences from the left, greens or FF. I am expecting a bloodbath with big names losing. I think FG did well with the economy and employment and can't imagine the disaster if SF were in power. I think housing will improve but will take time. I think FG should go into opposition, another term in government could wipe them out. FF and SF should be given the opportunity to run the country and sort out health and housing

There'll be no bloodbath but there will be casualties, some of them Ministers but predictably so. That they still hold a degree of support in the over 50s, who vote in very large numbers, should mitigate that, with the seat bonus such as it will be likely to nudge second FF candidates about FG. They will be in opposition unless called upon to prop up the numbers.

is_that_so

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

A feud between people in South Armagh 13 years ago that had nothing to do with politics then clearly should have nothing to do with a general election in Ireland now that has been fought on housing, health, tax and the climate. All the faux moralising from you Chips Lovell won’t change that. It stinks and you damn well know it does.

It's not the murder, it's that the family want to know what Murphy found out. Then there's that matter of him, with MLM stoutly defending him, suddenly apologising for calling the lad a criminal, 13 years later, in the last days of an election campaign. One doesn't even need to be a cynic to see what that's about.
Sure the past is used to beat SF but McGuiness aside, very few are prepared to own that past and their understandable determination to stand by "volunteers" and others is something they will never escape easily.

joe40

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

In fairness, the political connections to this murder is a far more worthy news story than the political connections of a woman falling off a swing but I'd say the later got more coverage at the time.

But what are the political connections. Everyone knows that Sinn Fein had links with the IRA during the troubles. That's not news for some it is still unpalatable, fair enough, but nothing new.
The killing of Paul Quinn was barbaric in the extreme but accepted by PSNI and our government as a criminal feud. Whether Quinn himself was involved in criminality does not take away from the Barbaric nature of the crimes which Sinn Fein have constantly condemned.
There is nothing new here.
For many it reinforces their opposition to Sinn Fein but it is not some new revelation as it is been portrayed.

Sir Oxman

All done and dusted.
I went the furthest down the paper than I ever have in a long while (to #8)
Steady stream of voters, no crowds.
Beautiful morning in Dublin so hope the turnout is high no matter the result.

zell12

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I think there will be a late bounce for FG.
There are a lot of people like myself who are pretty content with the way the country is going....

Senior FG party figures have privately conceded to the Irish Examiner the election will “not go our way” and the party’s time in government is coming to an end.
“We cannot win. The tide of change is too strong. We just need to try and keep as many seats as we can,” said one minister.
“The campaign has been a ****ing disaster,” said one senior party figure. “The D4 boys ran it again and it hasn’t worked. Blame nine years all you like, we made things difficult for ourselves.”

is_that_so

zell12 wrote: »

Senior FG party figures have privately conceded to the Irish Examiner the election will “not go our way” and the party’s time in government is coming to an end.
“We cannot win. The tide of change is too strong. We just need to try and keep as many seats as we can,” said one minister.
“The campaign has been a ****ing disaster,” said one senior party figure. “The D4 boys ran it again and it hasn’t worked. Blame nine years all you like, we made things difficult for ourselves.”

Yeah, one always needs to be wary of an anonymous "senior party figure" on a solo run. 9 years is a good run in government and the chances of being returned again after 2 terms are never very high anyway.

Water John

Seem to be putting themselves (FG) around 32 seats.

Fr Tod Umptious

is_that_so wrote: »

Yeah, one always needs to be wary of an anonymous "senior party figure" on a solo run. 9 years is a good run in government and the chances of being returned again after 2 terms are never very high anyway.

It somewhat reminds me of 2007.
FF were in power, going for a third term, things were going OK but it was not like the boom of 2002.

FG were seen as an alternative but they could never land a knock out blow on FF.

Pat Rabbite was odds on to become Tainiste.

On the day people decided to stay on the horse they were on and FF were returned as the largest party with a reduced number of seats.

This time FG are in FFs position and Mary Lou is Pat Rabbite.

On the day people might stick with what they know, as I said earlier I don't think it will be enough to return them as the biggest party, but their drop will not be as expected.

cute geoge

The only difference between ff and fg is that ff are a peoples party

blackcard

I think that there will be a late surge to SF and FF and away from FG as people vote to be on the 'winning' side

Ronan|Raven

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

and Mary Lou is Pat Rabbite.

I fcuking knew it!

Scoondal

At the polling station, the clerk gave me a torn ballot paper. I questioned if the paper was okay to vote on and she assured me it "was fine".
In hindsight, I think she did not stamp my ballot paper as she tried not to tear the paper further while extracting it from the book. My query about the ballot paper may have caused her to forget the stamp.
My wife was behind me and she can't remember the ballot paper being stamped. She said her paper was definitely stamped.
I think about 15% of the ballot paper was affected, including 2 voting spaces. The tear was about 10cms long with 5cms still attached.
A bad experience.

Sir Oxman

Turnout Dublin City @ 12noon 9%
Dublin County 6.5%

Fr Tod Umptious

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Turnout Dublin City @ 12noon 9%
Dublin County 6.5%

I'd guess that there is really no benchmark for turnout time segments today seeing as it's the first Saturday GE.

Previously there would have been the going to work rush, after work rush etc, but none of that is worth much of a Saturday.

Sir Oxman

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I'd guess that there is really no benchmark for turnout time segments today seeing as it's the first Saturday GE.

Previously there would have been the going to work rush, after work rush etc, but none of that is worth much of a Saturday.

It's actually around 20% in Dublin at 12 noon.

charlie14

is_that_so wrote: »

He hasn't unduly upset people and keeps doing the mea culpa and mostly seems reasonable, not a level of humility that one can attribute to the other blowhards.

After 2011 I got the feeling that there was a grudging respect for Martin in that unlike others he stayed with the sinking ship, and in 2016 actually managed to re-float it.
That as much as anything else appears to be the reason why they look to be in the position they may now be in. There appeared to be a realisation of that within his party as he was really the only face of FF during this campaign.

namloc1980

20% turnout at one station in Cobh, Co Cork by 12.30.

namloc1980

That paper won't be counted as it is invalid without a perforated stamp.

Hindsight is great but you should have insisted on getting another paper once the first one was torn.

Bannasidhe

Sir Oxman wrote: »

All done and dusted.
I went the furthest down the paper than I ever have in a long while (to #8)
Steady stream of voters, no crowds.
Beautiful morning in Dublin so hope the turnout is high no matter the result.

Blustery and raining in Cork NC but ticking over nicely in local polling station . Steady stream. Son voted around 11:30 and said it was busy.

I got as far as 4 - and that only by holding my nose and voting Green even though I can't abide Eamonn Ryan.

It was a long and mostly blank voting slip I put in the box.

FF, FG, LP got nothing from me. Neither did any of the Right wing, Anti-Abortion, anti-EU shower.
SF also got nothing as I said all along that until they adopt an animal welfare policy I won't vote for them.

Sparko

Just had a party rep at the door to make sure we'd been out to vote and to try and get there before the rugby/bad weather.

I've never had that before.