General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

blanch152

<Mod note: - now that the election is over, all discussion of same is in this thread. Please don't start any more treads on the election. There is a separate thread on the new Dail and the election of the new Taoiseach and there is also a General Irish Government thread for when (if) a new government is formed>

Now that the election is called, we are likely to have several threads going on the election itself.

Opinion polls are an interesting part of every election campaign and I think it would be interesting to have a separate thread dedicated to the topic of opinion polls for the election.

Topics to be covered could include:

- results of opinion polls, both local and national
- analysis of opinion polls
- trends in opinion polls and likely implications
- performance of different opinion poll companies
- constituency predictions based on opinion polls
- opinion polls versus last election

Discussions of political issues would be limited i.e. someone might say "FF look to be up because of the fallout from the RIC" but discussion of the rights and wrongs of the RIC issue would be off-topic. The idea would be that this thread would be free of political issues back and forth, but look at the numbers only.

Debate on the election issues could be in a separate thread, or if the issue is big enough, in their own thread. If mods disagree, they can lock and delete.

blanch152

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Irish_general_election

As a reminder to what happened at the last general election, the first preference votes and seats for the various parties were:


Fine Gael|25.5%|50
Fianna Fail|24.3%|44
Sinn Fein|13.8%|23
Labour|6.6%|7
AAA-PBP|3.9%|6
I4C|1.5%|4
Social Democrats|3.0%|3
Green|2.7%|2
Renua|2.2%|0
Independent Alliance|4.2%|6
Independent|11.7%|13
Others|0.6%|0

Dymo

Is there a site were I can see all the candidates in each constituency?

L1011

Dymo wrote: »

Is there a site were I can see all the candidates in each constituency?

Declarations aren't even open yet; so for now Adrian Kavanagh is probably most detailed:
https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2017/04/19/candidates-for-the-next-2017-2021-general-election-by-constituency/

Some parties haven't picked anyone yet; also expect to see some trimming where FF/FG have 3 or 4 candidates or SF have 2.

blanch152

What about the 2019 local elections?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Irish_local_elections

While local elections are different to national elections, they will give a pointer to trends in polling data e.g. are the Greens still gaining? was the fall in Sinn Fein support temporary? etc. Will try and keep same position in table as last post

Fine Gael|25.26%
Fianna Fail|26.92%
Sinn Fein|9.48%
Labour|5.73%
Solidarity-PBP|1.93%
I4C|0.5%
Social Democrats|2.28%
Green|5.55%
Renua|0.58%
Independent Alliance|-
Independent|19.54%
Aontu|1.48%


Since the general election, AAA-PBP now run as Solidarity-PBP (not sure if they will run together in the this election) and Aontu are a new party. The numbers don't add up to 100% as I haven't added up the very small numbers of the very small parties.

Not hugely different to the general election, 2% up for Fianna Fail puts them ahead of FG, but remember it was a mid-term election where incumbents rarely do well. Sinn Fein down 4% but the previous general election was their highest ever. The Greens were the story of the election, but they actually didn't get as many votes as Labour - the real successes for the Greens were in the Euros. All of the far left parties lost support. However, none of the changes were statistically significant so it can't be seen as a revolutionary election.

is_that_so

Locals are a measure of sorts but they do produce all sorts of candidates, most of whom wouldn't have a hope in the GE. The Independent vote in the GE is also many headed. The overall trends in polls to me are a better starting point. Mostly I'd expect groups to be where they've averaged. SF may drop that 5%, in which case seats will go a tumbling! The only question at present is where will the FF and FG vote share land. IMO one or other will hit high twenties maybe even 30%. Can't see a bigger party being higher than that unless they have a spectacular election.

blanch152

L1011 has already provided the link to Adrian Kavanagh's site which is a good place to go for candidate lists and polling analysis.

There hasn't been anything on this website since 2016, but might be worth checking if it gets going again for this election:

https://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/

Final link to look at is the election betting. Paddy Power have a comprehensive range of bets with under/over voting percentages for the main parties at the time of writing are as follows:

Fine Gael|26.55%
Fianna Fail|26.55%
Sinn Fein|12.55%
Labour|6.55%
Greens|7.55%

Not very illuminating, could have written those myself. Next government is more interesting, with a wide range of options.

FF/SD/Lab/Green at 5/1, the same combination with FG instead at 6/1 with FG/FF at 7/1 suggesting the two main parties will try and avoid a second confidence and supply arrangement if the numbers are there. Sinn Fein's first look-in is as FF/SF at 12/1 which is probably relying on the historical reluctance to go into government. Might have a splurge as I think that is more likely than 12/1.

So on we go.

blanch152

is_that_so wrote: »

Locals are a measure of sorts but they do produce all sorts of candidates, most of whom wouldn't have a hope in the GE. The Independent vote in the GE is also many headed. The overall trends in polls to me are a better starting point. Mostly I'd expect groups to be where they've averaged. SF may drop that 5%, in which case seats will go a tumbling! The only question at present is where will the FF and FG vote share land. IMO one or other will hit high twenties maybe even 30%. Can't see a bigger party being higher than that unless they have a spectacular election.

Agree with you on the locals but I was providing some contextual background and information to get the thread going. Similarly, with the Paddy Power post, not very illuminating, but if the odds change over the election campaign, it will be informative then.

Water John

Thanks for this thread. Presume we'll have polls at the weekend.

IAmTheReign

Results of the most recent Sunday Times opinion poll taken just before Christmas.

FG - 27%
FF - 27%
SF - 20%
Lab - 6%
Greens - 6%
PBP - 3%
IA - 2%
Inds/Others - 9%

Pretty close to the results of the local elections and the odds being offered by Paddy Power. Only major difference is the high percentage for SF. Looking at previous opinion polls SF seem to consistently poll higher in Times polls, Red C has them hovering in the low teens for most of last year. Polling data since 2016 available here if anyone is interested

Presume we'll get the first polls of the election out this weekend, will be interesting to see where they go. Personally I think the whole election could be very tight between FG & FF.

Water John

Yes, it really is about whether FG or FF get the most seats. If the largest party can't form a coalition Govn't with its own majority, then they use a confidence and supply arrangement.
Don't see either going into Govn't with SF, when they have the above 2 options.
FF usually poll a bit below what they actually get but then are less, transfer friendly than FG.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Is it possible to vote by post if out of the country on that date?

L1011

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Is it possible to vote by post if out of the country on that date?

For nearly all circumstances, no.

You need to be away on state business more or less.

I held off booking tickets/flights to a gig to see what date got announced and I'm still dithering about whether I'll get back in time on the 8th

Water John wrote: »

Thanks for this thread. Presume we'll have polls at the weekend.

I'm expecting one Saturday and one Sunday probably. One of Irish Times / Saturday Indo for Saturday; then on Sunday Times / Mail on Sunday / SBP / Sunday Indo

RTE and Paddy Power don't seem to fund polls anymore and I also expect the papers will quietly figure out not to do more than one per publication day to avoid wasting costs.

edit: Paddy Power have done a few polls but way less than before; RTE done none except exit polls on PE18 and LE/EE19.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Irish_general_election

aw

I caught Ivan Yates' analysis yesterday on Newstalk.

His GE prediction was quite interesting and the numbers are as follows:

FF to break 60 seats
FG to struggle to get to 40
Margin of error for both of the above: 2/3 seats

Green Party to go to 8
SF to fall to 17
Labour down 1 to 6

13 seats between the smaller parties/groups e.g SD, PBP
19 seats for Independents e.g Mattie McGrath, Healy Raes

liamtech

apologies for repost - wrong thread

liamtech wrote: »

Apologies if this has already been asked - im playing catch up i only just found out there is an election

So if the election is Saturday the 8th February 2020 - does that mean the count will take place on Sunday 9th? Or will it be monday?

ddarcy

L1011 wrote: »

For nearly all circumstances, no.

You need to be away on state business more or less.

I held off booking tickets/flights to a gig to see what date got announced and I'm still dithering about whether I'll get back in time on the 8th



I'm expecting one Saturday and one Sunday probably. One of Irish Times / Saturday Indo for Saturday; then on Sunday Times / Mail on Sunday / SBP / Sunday Indo

RTE and Paddy Power don't seem to fund polls anymore and I also expect the papers will quietly figure out not to do more than one per publication day to avoid wasting costs.

edit: Paddy Power have done a few polls but way less than before; RTE done none except exit polls on PE18 and LE/EE19.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Irish_general_election

I think a few have been in the process pre-election call. So we may need to wait until next week to be given a better representation of what’s going on. If I’m any party I’m not going to be celebrating per se with the first bunch of polls just yet.

blanch152

A couple more links:

Ispos MRBI site:

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ie/news-and-polls/overview

Doesn't seem to have much about their political polls, but if interested in radio listening data....

RedC website:

https://www.redcresearch.ie/

Some analysis of their own polls.

"In summary, the political landscape remains remarkably similar to that seen in 2016. Some small movements are seen with gains for Fianna fail and the Greens, and a decline for Sin Fein and Solidarity PBP. But the reality is, that we are currently looking at an election that could well end up with exactly the same general picture as was seen in 2016. Confidence and Supply anyone?"

Behaviour and Attitudes:

https://banda.ie/

I don't rate these as much as the others, but they do comprehensive analysis such as in this article, 72 pages do tell you a lot:

https://banda.ie/wp-content/uploads/J.1508-Sunday-Times-Dec-2019-Report-V2.pdf

Millward Brown:

http://www.millwardbrown.com/subsites/ireland/insights

Wide-ranging polls available.


Ireland Thinks:

https://www.irelandthinks.ie/blog

They do the polling for the Daily Mail but nothing on their website on political polls since January 2018.

Water John

Red C tend to be my, go to, poller. Wouldn't disagree with their assessment.

AMKC

So we will be going back to vote on the 8th of February.

Is it a good time to have a election?

Leo Varadkar seems to think it is.

Who will win?

Will it be Fine Gael, Fine Fail or someone else?

I think it more than likely will be one of them with some smaller partys.

Moes Tavern

Sunday Times polls are a nonsense. Sinn Fein hitting 20% or even more regularly.

Irish Times and SBP polls are better and more accurate. Any sample under 1000 isn't worth a piss.

Blut2

Is there any analysis/speculation of why Leo picked a Saturday out yet? The first Saturday election for 102 years is fairly noteworthy.

Does he think it'll mean less young people voting? Or more? Less working class people, or more?

I doubt he picked it instead of a weekday unless he thought it would confer FG some advantage.

is_that_so

Yates prediction for this election was mentioned at some point. Here he was in 2016, not exactly calling it right!
https://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/ivan-yates/ivan-yates-predictions-who-will-make-it-to-the-dail-and-whose-heads-will-roll-34484333.html

blanch152

Blut2 wrote: »

Is there any analysis/speculation of why Leo picked a Saturday out yet? The first Saturday election for 102 years is fairly noteworthy.

Does he think it'll mean less young people voting? Or more? Less working class people, or more?

I doubt he picked it instead of a weekday unless he thought it would confer FG some advantage.

Here is his statement from the RTE website.

https://static.rasset.ie/documents/news/2020/01/statement-by-leo-varadkar-14-january.pdf

"The election will be held on Saturday, February 8th. In holding the
General Election on a Saturday for the first time, I do so knowing
the inconvenience to families of a polling day on a weekday
during school term - time off work, lost income, increased
childcare costs. I also want to make it easier for students and
those working away from home to cast their votes."

blanch152

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0114/1107344-election-poll-of-polls/

An excellent article by Michael Marsh on the polls.

"Meanwhile, taking the latest points on each green line to denote where parties are now gives us the following percentages, along with a best guess, based on the record since the 1970s, of the seats that might be won with that level of support.

This is pretty much as we were, apart from a more significant Green Party representation."

Water John

A good point made by Gary Murphy RTE 1 News, about 10 FG TDs are retiring and name recognition is important in Irish elections. This may have an effect that polls will not pick up.

toleratethis

aw wrote: »

I caught Ivan Yates' analysis yesterday on Newstalk.

His GE prediction was quite interesting and the numbers are as follows:

FF to break 60 seats
FG to struggle to get to 40
Margin of error for both of the above: 2/3 seats

Green Party to go to 8
SF to fall to 17
Labour down 1 to 6

13 seats between the smaller parties/groups e.g SD, PBP
19 seats for Independents e.g Mattie McGrath, Healy Raes

I'd wonder if this isn't Yates doing a reverse "Sure your seat is safe" type prediction, scaring fg'ers into getting out.

blanch152

Water John wrote: »

A good point made by Gary Murphy RTE 1 News, about 10 FG TDs are retiring and name recognition is important in Irish elections. This may have an effect that polls will not pick up.

Yes, as the campaign gets going, we may want to look at what’s happening at local level with candidates to get an idea of where things are going.

Water John

That occurred to me as well about Yates. He is FG through and through.

Lass1992

What about parties such as Irish Freedom Party, Irish National Party, Renua etc?

hotmail.com

Lass1992 wrote: »

What about parties such as Irish Freedom Party, Irish National Party, Renua etc?

What about them! They don't figure at all.

Frank Bullitt

Lass1992 wrote: »

What about parties such as Irish Freedom Party, Irish National Party, Renua etc?

Hopefully this election will rid Ireland of these donkeys once and for all.

Water John

I'd say Renua will be running a good few candidates, if people wish to vote for them.

Lass1992

Gintonious wrote: »

Hopefully this election will rid Ireland of these donkeys once and for all.

What makes them donkeys though?

Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein all stand for the same thing, pro EU, open borders, and anti free speech.

If I'm against all of those policies what other choice do I have other than independants?

blanch152

Lass1992 wrote: »

What about parties such as Irish Freedom Party, Irish National Party, Renua etc?

Trying to keep this thread politically neutral, so a fair question.

My post on the last election results mentioned Remus.

I would guess that the opinion polls leave them out because low support makes the figures unrealistic. I didn’t separate the other two for the last locals because they were statistically insignificant.

Lass1992

blanch152 wrote: »

Trying to keep this thread politically neutral, so a fair question.

My post on the last election results mentioned Remus.

I would guess that the opinion polls leave them out because low support makes the figures unrealistic. I didn’t separate the other two for the last locals because they were statistically insignificant.

I was just wondering if people are considering them. I don't want to vote sf, ff, fg or gp so the parties I mentioned are more in line with what I want, not totally but closer.

L1011

Lass1992 wrote: »

What about parties such as Irish Freedom Party, Irish National Party, Renua etc?

1% between them most likely

Thrashssacre

They all seem to be running at least some candidates, the national party have a list of their candidates on their website so the option is there if people want to vote for them.

Doubt any of them have a chance of a seat though to be fair.

hotmail.com

Lass1992 wrote: »

I was just wondering if people are considering them. I don't want to vote sf, ff, fg or gp so the parties I mentioned are more in line with what I want, not totally but closer.

They will be lucky to get 1%.

Perhaps try voting for a socially conservative independent in your constituency instead, if this is stuff that you base your vote on.

ninebeanrows

I think when it all comes down to it the FFers will get 32% and FG will trail at 27%

Thrashssacre

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

I think when it all comes down to it the FFers will get 32% and FG will trail at 27%

FF/green coalition possibly with the support of indiependants, the boom is back baby.

ninebeanrows

Varadkar should have went to people in November when was strongman in Brexit negotiations

Since then health crisis has re emerged , some smugness off ministers has grown and some political miscalculations regarding the RIC thing

sid waddell

Any big potential casualties?

I think Eoghan Murphy will lose his seat in Dublin Bay South. Kate O'Connell has made a good impression nationally and seems popular locally, whereas Murphy has had a complete nightmare over the last couple of years. O'Connell, Jim O'Callaghan and Eamon Ryan look nailed on for three of the four seats and Murphy will be fighting for his life for the last seat at best I think. Labour could gain a seat back there.

Regina Doherty will struggle in Meath East. Where the challenge to her comes from is the question but I think FG will do very well to hold two seats in a three seat constituency.

I have a feeling Shane Ross's vote will be well down in Dublin Rathdown, he'll probably have enough but I wouldn't rule a big shock there, either FF or FG2 to beat him - Neale Richmond is a strong candidate.

Peadar Toibin will struggle in Meath West after leaving Sinn Fein. He has to be Aontu's only chance of a seat and if he loses it's pretty much curtains for them as a party a la Renua 2016. He'll be relying on a personal vote.

Stephen Donnelly is at serious risk in Wicklow for me. His vote from 2016 will surely desert him en masse and existing FF supporters might not be hugely inclined to vote for him.

Not sure if Joan Burton is running this time but I think she'll lose out this time in Dublin West and Ruth Coppinger is at risk in the same constituency as well.

markodaly

aw wrote: »

I caught Ivan Yates' analysis yesterday on Newstalk.

His GE prediction was quite interesting and the numbers are as follows:

FF to break 60 seats
FG to struggle to get to 40
Margin of error for both of the above: 2/3 seats

Green Party to go to 8
SF to fall to 17
Labour down 1 to 6

13 seats between the smaller parties/groups e.g SD, PBP
19 seats for Independents e.g Mattie McGrath, Healy Raes

Interesting analysis.

The only government to be formed then is:

FF/SF/Green
FF/SF/Labour
or FF/FG
or another minority government

I think it will be close between FF and FG, but FG will be hurt by the rise of the Greens and FF will eat away at the SF vote, which will mean two seats.

Also, winning three terms in power is extremely difficult, so its a natural course of events for FG to be out of power come Feb 9.
But, like the last time, we could be without a government for months and months while the other parties dance around the issues of a coalition.

sid waddell

Where the Greens gain seats will be very interesting.

They'll definitely hold the three they currently have - Dublin Bay South, Dublin Rathdown and Fingal.

Likely gains for them in my view are as follows:
Dun Laoighaire (which may mean Richard Boyd Barrett gets edged out)
Dublin Bay North - Finian McGrath's retirement should boost their prospects
Louth - Mark Deary performed well there in 2016 and with Gerry Adams retiring that should boost his vote on top of the swing he would have got anyway

Then you're looking at possibles, especially places where they have had a seat previously:
Dublin Mid-West - the complicating factor here is that Paul Gogarty, who used to be a Green TD himself but is now independent, is running
Carlow-Kilkenny - the Greens will have their eye on the SF seat
Cork South Central - SF are again at risk here

Others to watch are:
Dublin West - seems the sort of constituency where they might have a chance
Wicklow - suburban constituency and the type of demographic that previously voted for Stephen Donnelly seems a good fit for the Greens this time

In terms of outside shots I'd be looking at:
Kildare North
Meath East
Meath West
Galway West
Any of the other Dublin constituencies

Saoirse McHugh should poll respectably in Mayo but it's hard to see her take a seat there.

markodaly

The Greens have 3 seats but I would not be surprised if they come back with 8-10 seats next time out.
This will hurt the middle class FG vote and the urban Labour vote.

Larbre34

My feelings on Dun Laoghaire are 1 FG 1 FF 1 Grn 1 PBP.

There was traditionally a Labour seat there but since Gilmore nobody has come up to scratch. Deirdre Kingston withdrew and nobody else on the Council is of sufficient quality. They'd have to parachute in a huge name to figure, and there isn't one.

Larbre34

Either Joan or Coppinger will be returned in Dub West if both run. I do see an SF gain there though.

Dank Janniels

Might be stating the obvious but these will be safe:

Dennis Naughton
Michael Fitzmaurice
Michael Healy Rae
Danny Healy Rae
Mattie McGrath
Boxer Moran
Michael Lowry
Noel Grelish

Catherine Murphy
Rosin Shortall

Eamon Ryan

Brendan Howlin
Alan Kelly

Aonghus O'Snodaigh
Mary Lou McDonald
Pearse Doherthy

Willie O'Dea
Micheal Martin
Michael McGrath

Richard Bruton
Simon Coveney
Leo Varadkar (possibly)

*its actually hard trying to think of all the others!

is_that_so

sid waddell wrote: »

Louth - Mark Deary performed well there in 2016 and with Gerry Adams retiring that should boost his vote on top of the swing he would have got anyway

Deary has no hope and never did but his transfers will be good for someone, possibly Nash.

Russman

markodaly wrote: »

The Greens have 3 seats but I would not be surprised if they come back with 8-10 seats next time out.
This will hurt the middle class FG vote and the urban Labour vote.

This could be on the money alright. I think the Greens will do well, call it the Greta effect. They're probably a natural enough fit for a disgruntled FG voter who won't go to Labour or FF, and also could impact on any Labour recovery, while still a fairly safe place for any totally undecideds.

Its probably not a bad election to lose for FG. Fair chance of a recession during the next few years, so get out, blame FF, get back in.

bren2001

Dank Janniels wrote: »

Might be stating the obvious but these will be safe:

Dennis Naughton
Michael Fitzmaurice
Michael Healy Rae
Danny Healy Rae
Mattie McGrath
Boxer Moran
Michael Lowry
Noel Grelish

Catherine Murphy
Rosin Shortall

Eamon Ryan

Brendan Howlin
Alan Kelly

Aonghus O'Snodaigh
Mary Lou McDonald
Pearse Doherthy

Willie O'Dea
Micheal Martin
Michael McGrath

Richard Bruton
Simon Coveney
Leo Varadkar (possibly)

*its actually hard trying to think of all the others!

In Dublin Bay North: Richard Bruton and Sean Haughey are safe. I'd go as far to say Denise Mitchel is also safe if SF only run the one (which I believe they are). Leaves 2 seats for the rest there.