General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

Dank Janniels

Is the 2nd Green the Achil Avenger? lol

blackwhite

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

After totting up the constituencies, I came back with:

FF 56
FG 34
SF 31
Ind 15
Green 10
Labour 8
Soc Dems 4
Aontú 1
Green 1

Gave SF possibly unlikely gains in Longford and Mayo, so a conservative predictor might give FF and FG each one extra.

At a minimum the greens will get Dublin Bay South and Dublin Rathdown

Decent shot at a seat in Dun Laoghaire also

Water John

FF will be the largest party. I presume the task of forming a Govn't goes with that?

facehugger99

Darc19 wrote: »

I'm slightly biased as I have a good bet at 6/4 (now evs) for under 28.5 and I expect to collect

Yeah, I’m the same.

I’ll be shocked if SF get over 28.5 and have a large wedge riding on it.

ShylockWept

Darc19 wrote: »

Not a chance in hell of sf at 31

They are not transfer friendly and will struggle on later counts.

If they have a really good day, 25.

I'm slightly biased as I have a good bet at 6/4 (now evs) for under 28.5 and I expect to collect

I concur, I would suggest 25-26 is a cap for SF

retalivity

Pearse doherty @ 10/11 for highest first-prefs in the country is buying money, hes polling nearly 2 quotas

Snow Garden

boardise wrote: »

I'm also amazed that Hospital managers are never called to account and grilled in public for their stewardship...or the head of the HSE for that matter.
Don't know why so much personal vilification is directed at the Minister who provides huge increased budgets when local management must be a large factor in producing different outcomes ( as happens across the various hospitals)

The HSE are the worst for wasting budgets at the end of quarters or financial year in order to ensure the same budgets are provided during next cycle.

KevRossi

Water John wrote: »

FF will be the largest party. I presume the task of forming a Govn't goes with that?

No. Any grouping can form a government. Even if SF are 3rd biggest party they could also form a government.

Hypothetical example with 160 seats:

FF - 40
FG - 35
SF - 30
GP - 20
Lab-20
SD - 15
Others - 0

Then SF/GP/Lab/SD could form a coalition with 85 seats, with SF 'only' getting 30. Even though the two biggest parties get 75 between them, they can't do anything about it.

Imreoir2

KevRossi wrote: »

No. Any grouping can form a government. Even if SF are 3rd biggest party they could also form a government.

Hypothetical example with 160 seats:

FF - 40
FG - 35
SF - 30
GP - 20
Lab-20
SD - 15
Others - 0

Then SF/GP/Lab/SD could form a coalition with 85 seats, with SF 'only' getting 30. Even though the two biggest parties get 75 between them, they can't do anything about it.

Sure, but that kind of seat spread is never going to happen. For the most part the smaller parties are fighting each other for the last seat. If the Greens take a seat, its a seat that SD/Lab do not win. There is no chance that all the smaller parties get their upper limt of possible seats

Good loser

Ladykiller Regulation Tattoo wrote: »

Might be true, but God how could you listen to him talking as if he's presenting a children's TV program!

He's been a superb Minister for Finance? None of the interviewers can make any inroads into his logic and grasp of detail.
The country will miss him. Although M McGrath is probably the smartest man in FF (in Dail).

KevRossi

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Sure, but that kind of seat spread is never going to happen. For the most part the smaller parties are fighting each other for the last seat. If the Greens take a seat, its a seat that SD/Lab do not win. There is no chance that all the smaller parties get their upper limt of possible seats

I know. I was just answering the question as to whether the Taoiseach has to come from the largest party, and gave a hypothetical example to back my answer up.

Dank Janniels

Have the other parties said if they will suport a SF co-alition?

blackcard

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I think there will be a late bounce for FG.

There are a lot of people like myself who are pretty content with the way the country is going.
Unemployment is low, the economy is going well and they have done well with the Brexit situation, making sure that the border was an important issue.

FG may not win the most seats but I can see them doing better than polls suggest.

The wet day will help too, as the protest vote is less likely to materialize to the same extend onna good day.

I don't think that there will be an FG bounce. After each debate there was an expectation that their vote would increase but they continued to fall to 17% and still falling. Hard to see them getting 2nd preferences from the left, greens or FF. I am expecting a bloodbath with big names losing. I think FG did well with the economy and employment and can't imagine the disaster if SF were in power. I think housing will improve but will take time. I think FG should go into opposition, another term in government could wipe them out. FF and SF should be given the opportunity to run the country and sort out health and housing

markodaly

My prediction:

FF 57
FG 40
SF 25
Greens 10
Labour 7
SD 3
SOL/PBP 2
Aontu 1
Ind 15

or thereabouts.

SafeSurfer

Dank Janniels wrote: »

Have the other parties said if they will suport a SF co-alition?

No. Labour have ruled out SF also.

markodaly

KevRossi wrote: »

No. Any grouping can form a government. Even if SF are 3rd biggest party they could also form a government.

Hypothetical example with 160 seats:

FF - 40
FG - 35
SF - 30
GP - 20
Lab-20
SD - 15
Others - 0

Then SF/GP/Lab/SD could form a coalition with 85 seats, with SF 'only' getting 30. Even though the two biggest parties get 75 between them, they can't do anything about it.

Maybe in another lifetime, but whatever about SF getting 30, Greens won't be getting 20, maybe 10, Labour will be lucky to hold onto the 7 they have, and the SDs will max out at 3.

So you are about 35 TD's short, which is almost half a government.

To put simply, there are not enough 'left-wing' votes in the country. Maybe in the future but not now.

markodaly

In terms of government, I think it will be either

FF/SF straight up
or
FF/Greens/SD/Labour/Inde's

Instability abounds.

Labour and Greens were bitten last time out, so they will want a very different program for government this time out, which will annoy many-core FF and backbench TD's
I mentioned before, can you imagine the Greens and the Healy-Rae's in government at the same time?

FG can take a back seat from 9 years in power, build up the party again, and laugh at the ensuing chaos that transpires.

Dank Janniels

Afew Inds will support FF aswell- Mattie McGrath is ex-FF
The 2 Healy Reas - their father did several years ago
Noel Grellish- Previously in PDs
Possibly Michael Fitzmaurice
That Collins guy

markodaly

Yea, it will be easy enough for FF to get 5-6 independent supporters over the line.
But will they be able to convince the Greens, SDs and Labour at the same time, because essentially they will all be in it together.

The Greens red line is a huge rise in Carbon tax and cutting the national herd. How will that go down in Kerry? Some of the independents could be signing their P45 if they agree to go in with the Greens.

droidus

blackcard wrote: »

I don't think that there will be an FG bounce. After each debate there was an expectation that their vote would increase but they continued to fall to 17% and still falling. Hard to see them getting 2nd preferences from the left, greens or FF. I am expecting a bloodbath with big names losing.

Yeah, I think its possible that this may actually end up even worse than the polls suggest for FG.

Imreoir2

markodaly wrote: »

The Greens red line is a huge rise in Carbon tax. How will that go down in Kerry? Some of the independents could be signing their P45 if they agree to go in with the Greens.

No it's not. The Green position on incresing the Carbon Tax is the same as the outgoing government's. The only real difference in Green Party policy is they want the money raised ringfenced in a Green Fund to finance retrofits.

UDAWINNER

Chips Lovell wrote: »

Well, off the top of my head, in the past week or two in the Irish Times there was:

• Fintan O'Toole:It is time for Sinn Féin to come in from the cold
• Una Mullaly: Those attacking Sinn Féin have become cheerleaders in reverse

But let's not lose sight of the issue at hand. What unfolded this week involved people associated with that party murdering a man and a senior member of the party seemingly attempting to justify that murder by suggesting that he had it coming. By anyone's logic that is an incredibly serious issue and will, of course, generate intensive media scrutiny. Do you think it would have been any different if it involved people associated with Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, or Labour?

But more broadly, every political party can expect media attention on ethical and legal shortcomings. And there shouldn't be an expectation that this attention will get doled out evenly. It will be in proportion to the amount of ethical and legal shortcomings that party has. It's a simple fact that Sinn Fein has far more skeletons in its cupboards than the rest of the parties, so it's not surprising that it finds itself under the spotlight so often.

Do you really think some people in the media care about the death of Paul Quinn or his his grieving parents, they don't and they using to score political points. In previous elections, Jean McConville was used and then forgotten as soon as the election was over. Same will happen with the Quinn case, the media and other politicians will lose the Quinns phone number and will be unreachable come Sunday.

Bannasidhe

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Sure, but that kind of seat spread is never going to happen. For the most part the smaller parties are fighting each other for the last seat. If the Greens take a seat, its a seat that SD/Lab do not win. There is no chance that all the smaller parties get their upper limt of possible seats

The GE held in Feb 1948 resulted in a 5 party coalition/1 Ind gov that lasted for 3 years.

Fine Gael, The Labour Party Clann No Poblachta, Clann na Talmhan,National Labour Party, and James Dillion.

The leader of the largest party in the coalition (FG), Richard Mulcahy, did not become Taoiseach - he was minister for education.
John A Costello (FG) was Taoiseach - a compromise to get Seán MacBride and Clann Na Poblachta on board.
Tanaiste was William Norton of the LP.

FF were 6 seats short of a majority but refused to go into coalition.
They wanted a supply and confidence agreement with Clann Na Poblachta but MacBride said coalition or nothing.

Minister for Health was Noel Browne.

Never say never...

Heraldoffreeent

Dank Janniels wrote: »

Afew Inds will support FF aswell- Mattie McGrath is ex-FF
The 2 Healy Reas - their father did several years ago
Noel Grellish- Previously in PDs
Possibly Michael Fitzmaurice
That Collins guy

Not sure they'd want Grealish, he could be a bit toxic later on.
Fitzmaurice had a chance last time, figured out he'd prefer hurling from the ditch, likewise Collins.

Sean Canney and Boxer are more likely, 2 junior ministries and they'd be in, they're both Pragmatic and also FF gene pool. Naughton and Lowry can get a few treats for their respective local areas and they'll stay both quiet and bought.

FrancieBrady

Imreoir2 wrote: »

No it's not. The Green position on incresing the Carbon Tax is the same as the outgoing government's. The only real difference in Green Party policy is they want the money raised ringfenced in a Green Fund to finance retrofits.

All party's...especially those in government, will be 'green' in 5 yrs or even less. They're an obsolete party at this stage, appealing mostly to urbanites who have little else to worry about but the planet. Ryan would be more suited to a watchdog role or some specialist TV presenter role. EU legislation will take care of our commitments to change.

L1011

Bannasidhe wrote: »

The GE held in Feb 1948 resulted in a 5 party coalition/1 Ind gov that lasted for 3 years.

Fine Gael, Clann No Poblachta, Clann na Talmhan,National Labour Party, and James Dillion.

The leader of the largest party in the coalition (FG), Richard Mulcahy, did not become Taoiseach - he was minister for education.
John A Costello (FG) was Taoiseach - a compromise to get Seán MacBride and Clann Na Poblachta on board.
Tanaiste was William Norton of the NLP.

FF were 6 seats short of a majority but refused to go into coalition.
They wanted a supply and confidence agreement with Clann Na Poblachta but MacBride said coalition or nothing.

Minister for Health was Noel Browne.

Never say never...

William Norton was not NLP, he was Labour (who you left out of the party list)

NLP merged back in to the Labour party in the 50s; as is the standard death of a split.

UDAWINNER

Well in just under 21 Hours we will have the exit poll and this give us a fair idea of the election outcome will be. Im going to put the SF seats at 24/25, FF will get mid 50's and the rest I am unsure of. Turnout will be lower than expected due to the weather 55-60%.
I am sure there will be snipes from both sides when the results come out , but anyway regardless of your political persuasion make sure you vote later today.
Take care.

Bannasidhe

L1011 wrote: »

William Norton was not NLP, he was Labour (who you left out of the party list)

Yes, I did.
Fixed it.

Imreoir2

FrancieBrady wrote: »

All party's...especially those in government, will be 'green' in 5 yrs or even less. They're an obsolete party at this stage, appealing mostly to urbanites who have little else to worry about but the planet. Ryan would be more suited to a watchdog role or some specialist TV presenter role. EU legislation will take care of our commitments to change.

Utter nonsence.

Ireland is a laggard with regards to climate change. Our government and most of the other parties have dragged their feet on the issue and this election is no different. Most parties in Ireland have shown little ambition on climate change. We are facing significant fines as a result. We can't afford another government blocking climate action at EU level or holding us back from the transition to a green economy.

The Greens are running in every part of the country and are competative in several rural constituencies, such as Kerry. As for being obsolete, they are about to quadruple their seats in the Dáil.

mickdw

Maybe FG getting pushed out will be the best thing to ever happen them.
If brexit destroys confidence here and we go into a major recession, FF in power will get eaten alive.
FG were lucky not to win the 2007 election. They would have stepped into control of a sinking ship and would have taken the hit even worse that FF as it would have been seen as bankrupting the country in 12 months.