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FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

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    #602
    NMB
    Registered Users Posts: 314 ✭✭NMB


    Here's some info a dates Teddybones

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056107894


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    #603
    teddybones
    Registered Users Posts: 173 ✭✭teddybones


    NMB wrote: »
    Here's some info a dates Teddybones

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056107894


    Just read it. Sounds horrifying and amazing in equal measure.


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    #604
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    GFS wants to developer SSW (Sudden stratospheric warming) at the end of the month, will be interesting to watch.


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    #605
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Apparently Atlantic modification is non existent on the latest GFS run :pac:

    gfs-1-156_qkp5.png

    156-779UK_rdk4.GIF


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    #606
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Interesting

    https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/691258281600405505


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    #607
    lapua20grain
    Registered Users Posts: 821 ✭✭✭lapua20grain


    Villain wrote: »
    Interesting

    https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/691258281600405505
    what is this a link to? i cannot find it on twitter: apologies found it thanks


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    #608
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,660 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    lapua20grain wrote: »
    what is this a link to? i cannot find it on twitter

    it refers to a big wave number one displacement event in the stratospheric vortex. in an ideal scenario, this would lead to the polar vortex buggering off completely from Greenland, allowing the cold air trapped in the Arctic to descend over us courtesy of a mid Atlantic block or a Greenland high. however it's just as likely with a displacement, that a lobe of the polar vortex will hang on in the wrong place, or, worse still, it does in fact all move, but comes back quickly to its default location(Greenland) leaving us with a brief cold period, before a zonal flow quickly returns. The optimum scenario for us is the polar vortex being destroyed by a major stratospheric warming event( i think this happened in 2010), but there does not seem to be any indication of a major ssw event happening this winter. What's currently modelled is a minor warming leading to a possible displacement of the vortex.


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    #609
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    nacho libre wrote: »
    it refers to a big wave number one displacement event in the stratospheric vortex. in an ideal scenario, this would lead to the polar vortex buggering off completely from Greenland, allowing the cold air trapped in the Arctic to descend over us courtesy of a mid Atlantic block or a Greenland high. however it's just as likely with a displacement, that a lobe of the polar vortex will hang on in the wrong place, or, worse still, it does in fact all move, but comes back quickly to its default location(Greenland) leaving us with a brief cold period, before a zonal flow quickly returns. The optimum scenario for us is the polar vortex being destroyed by a major stratospheric warming event( i think this happened in 2010), but there does not seem to be any indication of a major ssw event happening this winter. What's currently modelled is a minor warming leading to a possible displacement of the vortex.

    No, the sudden stratospheric warming that you are probably thinking of took place in January 2013.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #610
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,660 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    No, the sudden stratospheric warming that you are probably thinking of took place in January 2013.

    Ah, yes you're right, sorry. There was one back then too. How could i forget the snowfall we had in late Feburary and temperatures struggling to get above 3c at times in this concrete jungle.


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    #611
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Ah, yes you're right, sorry. There was one back then too. How could i forget the snowfall we had in late Feburary and temperatures struggling to get above 3c at times in this concrete jungle.

    Kind of incorrect there, sorry. I know this is off topic to the thread firstly but this is just a summary I made to help you remember what the weather was like around that time.

    January 1st-5th: Very mild and dry but quite cloudy throughout. It was a sharp contrast to the end of 2012 which continued from the unsettled conditions that year threw at us since April of that year.

    January 6th-7th: Very mild again but wet and windy and still cloudy. Heavy rainfalls were recorded in parts of up to 40mm.

    January 8th-10th: A colder, drier and sunnier period. The 9th was a particularly sunny day and temperatures were a little below average.

    January 11th-15th: Cloudier again with little sunny spells. It was rather cold and mixed with showers on the 11th, 12th and 14th and some rain on the 13th.

    January 16th-18th: It started off very cloudy and drizzly with just showery rain, particularly in the east. Still rather cold but not exceptionally so. The 17th was cloudy and dry for the most part but very heavy rainfall affected the country overnight and into the 18th when parts of Dublin recorded 30mm or more. It was relatively mild this day, however, this did not win out!

    January 19th-24th: A very cold and mainly dry period for the most part with the exception of rainfall in the south on the 20th. Temperatures struggled to get past 5c nearly everywhere and frosts were frequent. There was even some snowfall in places at times (my station recorded snow on the 22nd).

    January 25th-29th: Much milder with temperatures getting up to 15c on the 29th. But it was also wetter with flooding at times and very dull conditions with little sunshine.

    January 30th-February 14th: A very mixed period with bands of rain affecting the country on January 31st (early hours), February 7th, 9th, 10th, 12th and 13th. The rest of the time, it was very quiet with just little showers. Some places recorded snowfall on the 4th and 5th of February. Temperatures were average or a little below generally. February 6th and 14th were dry days.

    February 15th-March 5th: A long spell of dry weather. It started off mild with temperatures reaching 12c on February 17th but soon became relatively cold (not exceptionally so) from February 19th - March 2nd (I think it was). Temperatures struggled at times to get past 6 or 7c. Parts of the east recorded little snowfall on February 23rd and 24th. But throughout this period, it was very dry, quiet and mixed spells of sunshine. The period February 22nd - 27th was particularly sunny in places, especially the west. As March began, it began to become a bit milder with temperatures reaching 14c on the 5th. Amazingly, my station did not get above 10c though.

    March 6th-9th: Very dull and wet and relatively mild. This period was just plain miserable!

    March 10th-April 9th: A long period of very cold weather. Persistent rainfall on March 21st and 22nd but overall, very cold and snowy. Temperatures did not get above 0c in places on March 11th. It was the coldest Easter on record (March 31st) with maximums of only 3-5c in most places.

    ^ I hope this helps.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #612
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,660 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Kind of incorrect there, sorry. I know this is off topic to the thread firstly but this is just a summary I made to help you remember what the weather was like around that time.

    January 1st-5th: Very mild and dry but quite cloudy throughout. It was a sharp contrast to the end of 2012 which continued from the unsettled conditions that year threw at us since April of that year.

    January 6th-7th: Very mild again but wet and windy and still cloudy. Heavy rainfalls were recorded in parts of up to 40mm.

    January 8th-10th: A colder, drier and sunnier period. The 9th was a particularly sunny day and temperatures were a little below average.

    January 11th-15th: Cloudier again with little sunny spells. It was rather cold and mixed with showers on the 11th, 12th and 14th and some rain on the 13th.

    January 16th-18th: It started off very cloudy and drizzly with just showery rain, particularly in the east. Still rather cold but not exceptionally so. The 17th was cloudy and dry for the most part but very heavy rainfall affected the country overnight and into the 18th when parts of Dublin recorded 30mm or more. It was relatively mild this day, however, this did not win out!

    January 19th-24th: A very cold and mainly dry period for the most part with the exception of rainfall in the south on the 20th. Temperatures struggled to get past 5c nearly everywhere and frosts were frequent. There was even some snowfall in places at times (my station recorded snow on the 22nd).

    January 25th-29th: Much milder with temperatures getting up to 15c on the 29th. But it was also wetter with flooding at times and very dull conditions with little sunshine.

    January 30th-February 14th: A very mixed period with bands of rain affecting the country on January 31st (early hours), February 7th, 9th, 10th, 12th and 13th. The rest of the time, it was very quiet with just little showers. Some places recorded snowfall on the 4th and 5th of February. Temperatures were average or a little below generally. February 6th and 14th were dry days.

    February 15th-March 5th: A long spell of dry weather. It started off mild with temperatures reaching 12c on February 17th but soon became relatively cold (not exceptionally so) from February 19th - March 2nd (I think it was). Temperatures struggled at times to get past 6 or 7c. Parts of the east recorded little snowfall on February 23rd and 24th. But throughout this period, it was very dry, quiet and mixed spells of sunshine. The period February 22nd - 27th was particularly sunny in places, especially the west. As March began, it began to become a bit milder with temperatures reaching 14c on the 5th. Amazingly, my station did not get above 10c though.

    March 6th-9th: Very dull and wet and relatively mild. This period was just plain miserable!

    March 10th-April 9th: A long period of very cold weather. Persistent rainfall on March 21st and 22nd but overall, very cold and snowy. Temperatures did not get above 0c in places on March 11th. It was the coldest Easter on record (March 31st) with maximums of only 3-5c in most places.

    ^ I hope this helps.

    Sorry again:o I should have clarified i was talking about the weather in the South East of England, not Ireland, at that time.


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    #613
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Sorry again:o I should have clarified i was talking about the weather in the South East of England, not Ireland, at that time.

    Then yeah, that makes sense. I remember the southeast of England recording some scattered snowfall at multiple times in the second half of February (also on the 10th in the first half). But anyways... back to this Winter.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #614
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Back to a similar Atlantic set up like before Christmas with low after low skimmimg past us well into FI. Some very windy spells to come and no doubt a lot of rain in the systems. The strong Jet looks to stay over us or to the North of us well into Feb.


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    #615
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Back to a similar Atlantic set up like before Christmas with low after low skimmimg past us well into FI. Some very windy spells to come and no doubt a lot of rain in the systems. The strong Jet looks to stay over us or to the North of us well into Feb.

    It was very windy today LOL. There was a roof full of water from heavy rain and the wind was blowing it over to us :pac::pac:

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #616
    Eugene Norman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,191 ✭✭✭Eugene Norman


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Back to a similar Atlantic set up like before Christmas with low after low skimmimg past us well into FI. Some very windy spells to come and no doubt a lot of rain in the systems. The strong Jet looks to stay over us or to the North of us well into Feb.

    Ah but MT has mentioned cold in early Feb.


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    #617
    WheatenBriar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,170 ✭✭✭WheatenBriar


    Eugene Norman wrote: »
    Ah but MT has mentioned cold in early Feb.

    Which could end up being march and we'll hear a narrative about how its later than expected
    Lets make no mistake about it, cold has to be much more severe in origin to make an impact as it gets later, March is a nuisance imho

    Meanwhile, I see the 0Z ECM fi has a potential deep artic cold shot next week
    It may of course be gone on the 12Z
    I'd prefer to be reading a narrative saying it's early


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    #618
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    WheatenBriar wrote: »
    Which could end up being march and we'll hear a narrative about how its later than expected
    Lets make no mistake about it, cold has to be much more severe in origin to make an impact as it gets later, March is a nuisance imho

    Meanwhile, I see the 0Z ECM fi has a potential deep artic cold shot next week
    It may of course be gone on the 12Z
    I'd prefer to be reading a narrative saying it's early

    Yeah we need things to calm down around the Greenland area as well as getting rid of that Mediterranean HP. I don't feel confident re. the last third of winter, but anyways lets see if these strat warmings can save the day.


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    #619
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users Posts: 6,055 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    It will be interesting to look back at these charts in 8 days time, knowing our climate I know which one will be most accurate.

    ECM1-192.GIF?27-12

    gfs-0-192.png?6


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    #620
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Elmer Blooker wrote: »
    It will be interesting to look back at these charts in 8 days time, knowing our climate I know which one will be most accurate.

    ECM1-192.GIF?27-12

    gfs-0-192.png?6

    Obviously the GFS

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #621
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,660 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Obviously the GFS

    As a matter of interest which model is on top this winter in terms of verification?


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    #622
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    nacho libre wrote: »
    As a matter of interest which model is on top this winter in terms of verification?

    No... I said obviously the GFS because it was showing the most likely scenario above ^

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #623
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,660 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    No... I said obviously the GFS because it was showing the most likely scenario above ^

    you pessimist, or is that realist:(. yes, given our loccation, the gfs will likely be right. also i seem to recall the ECM producing eye candy charts previously, only for it to back the more sobering output of the GFS in the end. i'm sure steve murr over on netweather is saying bin the gfs output, because its not showing what he wants


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    #624
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,530 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    nacho libre wrote: »
    you pessimist, or is that realist:(. yes, given our loccation, the gfs will likely be right. also i seem to recall the ECM producing eye candy charts previously, only for it to back the more sobering output of the GFS in the end. i'm sure steve murr over on netweather is saying bin the gfs output, because its not showing what he wants

    Yeah it's realist

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #625
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    FI

    gens-4-1-288.png


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    #626
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    ECM 12Z sticking with the 0Z colder theme. I can't post charts as i'm a newbie :)


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    #627
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    144 hrs

    Recm1442.gif

    168 hrs

    Recm1682.gif

    192 hrs

    Recm1922.gif

    Not buying it, but interesting model watching nonetheless


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    #628
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,660 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    ECM1-168.GIF?27-0

    this would be very nice for me, but of course it won't happen


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    #629
    WheatenBriar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,170 ✭✭✭WheatenBriar


    Well the folks on the UK sites are excited, the fools.
    I can only comment on what those charts would give,they've zero chance of verifying
    Mostly northwesterlies, cold but not much precipitation
    Snow for mountainy man again for sure were it to pan out
    One or two days of weak northeasterlies too as the low in the north sea heads away southeastwards killing off our chances again as we fade into a col having had our cold feed diverted into the continent
    All rubbish, interesting rubbish nonetheless.


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    #630
    Eugene Norman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,191 ✭✭✭Eugene Norman


    Fairly pessimistic bunch of coldies on here. During the last excitement MT was suggesting the cold wasn't really certain and would be short lived (that is on his daily forecasts, he rarely comes in here). Today he was more than hinting at cold.

    The games afoot.


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    #631
    mountainy man
    Registered Users Posts: 981 ✭✭✭mountainy man


    Thanks for the personal forecast WB :pac: Btw had a heavy snow shower at 13.30 today, didn't stick.


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