FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

icesnowfrost

-8 uppers over us on saturday. prob get a nice covering on high ground almost anywere in the northern half of the country.

icesnowfrost

-8 uppers over us on saturday. prob get a nice covering on high ground almost anywere in the northern half of the country.

bnt

The ECMWF chart for T+216, Saturday 6 February, doesn't need much in the way of analysis before I start saying "oh, dearie me" ...

pad199207

bnt wrote: »

The ECMWF chart for T+216, Saturday 6 February, doesn't need much in the way of analysis before I start saying "oh, dearie me" ...

Excellent

Mafra

bnt wrote: »

The ECMWF chart for T+216, Saturday 6 February, doesn't need much in the way of analysis before I start saying "oh, dearie me" ...

Excuse my ignorance, I'm intrigued but clueless, what exactly am I looking at?? Thanks!

SeaBreezes

bnt wrote: »

The ECMWF chart for T+216, Saturday 6 February, doesn't need much in the way of analysis before I start saying "oh, dearie me" ...

Where do I sign up? :-)

elastico

Mafra wrote: »

Excuse my ignorance, I'm intrigued but clueless, what exactly am I looking at?? Thanks!

I'd like to know too!

teddybones

bnt wrote: »

The ECMWF chart for T+216, Saturday 6 February, doesn't need much in the way of analysis before I start saying "oh, dearie me" ...

Last Tuesday ecm was showing something similar for Friday next week. It disappeared for a few runs and now back full throttle. I screenshot it, but can't figure out how to post it. (Tried and failed as I am crap) anyhow that low was as terrifying as this one. Now what are the chances realistically of that coming off! So interesting though...

Meteorite58

elastico wrote: »

I'd like to know too!

Its a close up computer prediction of a low pressure system and possible storm in FI ( 8 days away so plenty of time for changes put interesting nonetheless )

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php



Close up http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=3&type=0&archive=0

A slow moving system, run the model the day before and after and it looks even stronger ! A lot of cold air possibly pulled down from the NW me thinks.

bnt

I guess I should have said a bit more about that chart. That low pressure (953mb) is simply alarming in itself, and isn't far from that of Hurricane Sandy at landfall (946mb).

maquiladora

bnt wrote: »

I guess I should have said a bit more about that chart. That low pressure (953mb) is simply alarming in itself, and isn't far from that of Hurricane Sandy at landfall (946mb).

It's a large area of low pressure and the isobars are quite slack despite the low central pressure. It's pressure gradient that determines the strength of the wind, not how low the pressure is. In this case it would just be wet and windy weather but not stormy.

nacho libre

the gfs output, based on this chart, seems to be depicting what the uk met office suggest will happen around the middle of the month

WheatenBriar

There'd be a fair bit of hill snow in that

icesnowfrost

wat a beauty.

Sorry guys having trouble uploading picture for some reason

WheatenBriar

All the juicy stuff is deep in the far reaches of FI on the gfs 12Z

Almost perfect 2 weeks away but completely lala land
See attached where the high is far enough west of Scandi,to drag Icy air down towards Ireland in a NE flow
If that was at t 48 or less and progressed instead of t320 it would be sledge time imminent in the east

NMB

Delicious screenshot

WheatenBriar

If you think thats delicious, lol,the ecm tonight delivers sensory overload for next weekend

Shelf clearing stuff

Basically the polar vortex 2010 style via Scandinavia down on top of us,how would you like that?

Boards won't let me post that screen grab
I'll try again in a new post

Edit,nope wont attach but you get the idea

Darwin

Impressive looking chart alright for next Saturday, 850 temps in the -5/-6 region looking at the low res chart.

WheatenBriar

Darwin wrote: »

Impressive looking chart alright for next Saturday, 850 temps in the -5/-6 region looking at the low res chart.

Aye,far out in FI but even -6 air from that direction, coupled with the thickness's and dewpoints, it would be getting very close,with better on the way possibly?

nacho libre

ah... the way the ecm has been performing this winter doesn't give much hope it will be like that next weekend, they have led us up the garden path before with sensory overload charts. I'd be more encouraged by the gfs, even if what it is showing is two weeks out, it has been good this winter on picking up trends in fi. sometimes it has dropped the idea in subsequent runs, only to pick it up again,so even it drops the idea in the next run i won't be too concerned.

NMB

Every time I see that username I think
1. Snow
2. Free Nachos for everyone !!!

NMB

Every time I see that username I think
1. Snow
2. Free Nachos for everyone !!!

Duiske

Notice GFS is still progging a very heavy spell of precipitation for next Saturday, with cold temps thrown in. Normally wouldn't take much notice at 7 days out, but it's shown up a few times in the last 3/4 days and if it verified could lead to a spell of snow if temps fall off a little. Maybe wishful thinking, but something to keep an eye on.

WheatenBriar

Duiske wrote: »

Notice GFS is still progging a very heavy spell of precipitation for next Saturday, with cold temps thrown in. Normally wouldn't take much notice at 7 days out, but it's shown up a few times in the last 3/4 days and if it verified could lead to a spell of snow if temps fall off a little. Maybe wishful thinking, but something to keep an eye on.

Theres good potential for lots of high ground snow around then alright away from coast's ala the episode on that Saturday night a few weeks back,let's see?

Sadly Im not too confident going forward after that,its a case model wise of its always out at 240
The cold in the states is the spoiler
I just dont see how you're going to get your needed Atlantic blocking when thats spilling out into it
It just seems counter intuitive, so no incentive to drag down a proper north(b)easterly but hey nature could yet surprise us?

Nabber

Tazio

This one at 150 hours has me slight worried.... it looks a bit ominous.
Rtavn1501.gif

Rtavn1508.gif

WheatenBriar

Tazio wrote: »

This one at 150 hours has me slight worried.... it looks a bit ominous.
Rtavn1501.gif

Rtavn1508.gif

Its basically a watered down version of what was discussed on the ecm a few days ago only further west and milder
So nothing special and probably not going to be the verified result on the day

Tazio

Thanks for the expert reply. It still looks like a significant wind event for the south coast on the FI charts... I would like to keep my roof... Glad to hear nothing will come of it

Aerohead

Tazio wrote: »

Thanks for the expert reply. It still looks like a significant wind event for the south coast on the FI charts... I would like to keep my roof... Glad to hear nothing will come of it

MT had it in his weather report this morning so I would not cancel this storm yet

MT
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The early part of next week could turn quite stormy and with temperatures just above freezing there will be mixed falls of rain, sleet and snow depending on elevation. This could go either way from this distance, possibly a milder outcome or possibly a more wintry result.

Tazio

ok thanks... so am I allowed to kick off a "Potential Storm / Wind event 7 to 9 Feb 2016" ' thread yet?

Again I'm a total amateur, but looking at the ECM charts too seem to agree kind of regularly. been watching this (let most here) for a few days..

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

(this is fun)...