FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

WheatenBriar

Tbh,I don't think you'll be short opportunities for those yet

Nabber

Comhrá

Looks like it could get pretty windy again around 07/02 again:

squarecircles

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20160202/12/123/ukgust.png

Potential storm next weekend.

Darwin

Rather worryingly, all the big three models show a very similar pattern too for next Sunday/Monday, hopefully the worst of it will stay south out to sea.

sryanbruen

Imogen looks to be hot on its tails next week :pac:

squarecircles

Looks like a more country wide event as opposed to the normal west/northwest storm

maquiladora

18Z GFS shows very strong inland wind gusts up to around 150 km/h on Sunday at 117 hours over the Southern counties. That's inland, not just coastal areas.

Will probably downgrade but looks very strong on that run.

(No longer able to log into boards on my PC so I won't really be as active on here any more unless the login issues get fixed.)

lolie

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS shows very strong inland wind gusts up to around 150 km/h on Sunday at 117 hours over the Southern counties. That's inland, not just coastal areas.

Will probably downgrade but looks very strong on that run.

(No longer able to log into boards on my PC so I won't really be as active on here any more unless the login issues get fixed.)

Have you tried the Opera browser?
I couldn't post a picture attachment earlier with chrome but it worked no problem with Opera, although that was on the phone not pc.

downwiththatsor

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS shows very strong inland wind gusts up to around 150 km/h on Sunday at 117 hours over the Southern counties. That's inland, not just coastal areas.

Will probably downgrade but looks very strong on that run.

(No longer able to log into boards on my PC so I won't really be as active on here any more unless the login issues get fixed.)

Thats a pity Maq, hope you get it sorted.

93mph gusts would not be nice.

SeaBreezes

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS shows very strong inland wind gusts up to around 150 km/h on Sunday at 117 hours over the Southern counties. That's inland, not just coastal areas.

Will probably downgrade but looks very strong on that run.

(No longer able to log into boards on my PC so I won't really be as active on here any more unless the login issues get fixed.)

Hi Maq, I had the same issue with Chrome, until I cleared all my history and opened Chrome using Incognito ( You can also use the keyboard shortcut and press Ctrl + Shift + N (Windows, Linux, and Chrome OS) and ⌘ + Shift + N (Mac) to open an incognito window. Touch the Chrome menu, which may look like either three dots or a tab . A new window will open with a gray incognito icon .) its worth a shot!

Meteorite58

I think the models have been very accurate of late , seem to handle this Atlantic weather well. Seems a lot of early agreement in something stormy around Sun or Mon even got an early mention on the weather forecast this evening . The Atlantic / Jet stream is very volatile atm. It is definitly a sit up and take notice potential event but still 5 days away, will be watching .

dacogawa

And lets not forget the added Spring Tide next week! :eek:

It'll be 4.20m on Monday so lets hope that it doesn't slow down it's approach (GFS faster than ECM at the moment)

Wednesday is the top at 4.45m (14.6ft) and we remember that last time it was in that range and had a little storm before it...

Grand Canal Dock/Liffey

KingdomRushed

With the exceptional deep troughing due over us from Saturday until mid week I would expect event weather to pop up at short notice. You can see all sorts of nasty little features popping up in the extended GPS ensembles this morning at the southern end of the trough. These barrel lows will not be forecast accurately yet and there is a chance of very nasty winds landing on someone's doorstep. Also I would expect good snowfall on Dublin mountains for those interested with cold uppers and precipitation at times.

Chris_5339762

Going to Brighton this weekend, flying out Friday evening and flying home Saturday night. I'll miss the worst of it (expecting a few delays but no cancellations) but for gods sake this will be my third UK trip in a row where it'll be ruined by absolutely biblical rain.

Late October when I went over to Brighton we couldn't leave the house all day such was the rain.
November I spent 8 hours outside in Manchester in absolutely deluging rain.
February 6th forecasts are deteriorating with each run; originally it was supposed to be ok now looks like it'll be a repeat of the previous trips.

Crazy.

Chris_5339762

Going to Brighton this weekend, flying out Friday evening and flying home Saturday night. I'll miss the worst of it (expecting a few delays but no cancellations) but for gods sake this will be my third UK trip in a row where it'll be ruined by absolutely biblical rain.

Late October when I went over to Brighton we couldn't leave the house all day such was the rain.
November I spent 8 hours outside in Manchester in absolutely deluging rain.
February 6th forecasts are deteriorating with each run; originally it was supposed to be ok now looks like it'll be a repeat of the previous trips.

Crazy.

The12thMan

so good you said it twice?

Tactical

The12thMan wrote: »

so good you said it twice?

Double post most likely related to the recent login problems etc...

Elmer Blooker

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

It will be interesting to look back at these charts in 8 days time, knowing our climate I know which one will be most accurate.

Eight days on and here's the current chart, a remarkable and outstanding performance from the GFS at +192 compared to the overrated ECM.

Comhrá

GFS has us in for a good lash next Wed, 10th:

squarecircles

Looking blowy.

Comhrá

Greatly diminished in severity in latest run:

snaps

The gfs has been superb this winter. Nearly 100% accurate out to 7/8days. This storm immogen was showing on the gfs last saturday.

patneve2

snaps wrote: »

The gfs has been superb this winter. Nearly 100% accurate out to 7/8days. This storm immogen was showing on the gfs last saturday.

Well lets hope GFS continues being accurate...:D

Nabber

Speak Now

snaps wrote: »

The gfs has been superb this winter. Nearly 100% accurate out to 7/8days. This storm immogen was showing on the gfs last saturday.

I was surprised to see model accuracy at 90% for day 5.

At 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.

At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts

At 5 days ECM leads with 90.6 pts to UKMO at 88.7 pts and GFS at 88.1 pts.

At 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.0 pts to 64.5 pts.

At Day 10 GFS leads today at 49.9 pts to ECM's 48.7 pts.


These are 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM.

Gibby includes these figures in his daily review of NWP OUTPUT in the model output discussion thread over on net weather.

Comhrá

Is Spring due around Feb. 20-21st? Looks like we might get a few really mild days soon ....even if it's only a short respite

Iancar29

Battle ground setup holding firm on the 12z for the Weekend.

Saturday could get interesting for many if the cold air doesn't get pushed back.






One to keep an eye on.

JCX BXC

That's pure depressing from a West Clare perspective.

pad199207

Carnacalla wrote: »

That's pure depressing from a West Clare perspective.

Yeah and by next weekend it will be pure depressing from an Ireland perspective!