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FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,242 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Love the CFS.

    Do people actually get employed to forecast the weather "we want"?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,031 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    pauldry wrote: »
    Love the CFS.

    Do people actually get employed to forecast the weather "we want"?

    Ha. I could do that job !


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Just for fun but tonight's GFS 12z looking relatively vigorous in FI.

    368262.png

    New Moon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,346 ✭✭✭highdef


    Well this evenings gfs really is teasing us!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    ECM putting out some interesting stuff.

    216

    ECU1-216_wym7.GIF

    240

    ECM1-240_heh1.GIF


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    06Z GFS deep FI

    gfs-0-384_wwq2.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,991 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Any more stormy weather on the way maq, what is the latest on Hurricane Kate.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭B17G


    06Z GFS deep FI

    Minus eight uppers over the NE.

    gfs-1-372_xel9.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Any more stormy weather on the way maq, what is the latest on Hurricane Kate.

    Remains of Kate won't be anything too interesting here. Plenty of rain and 90-100 km/h gusts on the west coast I'd say.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z ECM.

    ECH1-240_nam6.GIF


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  • Registered Users Posts: 167 ✭✭Timmyboy


    I'd say that's a good chance of potential snow towards the middle of week after next!
    By a good chance, this means that it's probably at 70% likely hood that there will be snow on the mountains over 2500 feet.
    This is more hope that anything scientific from me but I do like the look of the recent ECMWF charts. :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z ECM ensemble shows the operational run wasn't an outlier. That's a pretty clear signal for a 50 member ensemble mean at 192 hours out. Whether it'll be right or not is a different question, but this is just the FI thread :P

    EDH1-192_rmg5.GIF


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Listen to this forecast, I hope it comes true! :D:)

    http://www.bbc.com/weather/features/34816131


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Next Saturday on the 06Z GFS

    gfs-0-174_kzg1.png
    gfs-1-180_uyd9.png

    Though this run looks like it'll end up being a toppler rather than a sustained cold spell, we'll see. Still FI land.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    GFS 12z still showing some wintry ppn the end of next week but is definitely a toppler setup and not a lasting cold spell.

    gfs-0-168_rfc0.png
    gfs-1-168_bjy9.png

    What we want to see is the Canadian ridge forming a solid cut off high over Greenland.
    gfsnh-0-114_qws9.png

    AnywaysInteresting times ahead still..

    Lets see what the ECM has to offer ...


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,526 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    The charts will change but lots of potential there on current charts with weather coming down from the north west / north at times and winter hasn't even started yet:)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Still looking at a cooldown next weekend. GFS has about a 24 window for wintry showers before the high collapses on us Sunday morning. North/northwest areas with best chances here :

    gfs-0-162_ylt3.png

    ECM keeps that window open a bit longer, about 48 hours. North/northeast areas with best chances here.

    ECM1-168_wmr4.GIF

    In short, the further north you are the better for wintry showers.

    After that, at the moment it looks like we might have a dry, cool period for a while under high pressure. Still all FI of course.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    It's looking exceptionally cold to me with Saturday looking like an ice day.
    All to play for but need the 12Z to upgrade a bit.

    Is your definition of cool 2 to 5 maq?
    Because temps will be no higher on sat and pbly closer to zero imo

    Agree with the 24 hour windows alright.
    It is a blink n you miss affair but quite potent


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    It's looking exceptionally cold to me with Saturday looking like an ice day.
    All to play for but need the 12Z to upgrade a bit.

    Is your definition of cool 2 to 5 maq?
    Because temps will be no higher on sat and pbly closer to zero imo

    Agree with the 24 hour windows alright.
    It is a blink n you miss affair but quite potent

    Too early to know exact temperatures at this stage, 06Z GFS is showing 1-7 Saturday afternoon but it's still 150 hours away, we don't know if there will be shortwaves interrupting the flow or if the high will collapse quicker. Just safe to say "cool" at this stage but cold looking very possible.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭esposito


    Hoping for very cold temps next weekend but used to being disappointed from the recent past. Not too optimistic tbh - I think temps will be in the 4-8 range and won't be cold enough for snow (except on mountains in north)

    I hope I'm wrong but the goddam mild weather just never seems to be far away does it. Still, good to see these charts so early.
    We might just have a significant cold shot from the north/east this winter :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    It's looking exceptionally cold to me with Saturday looking like an ice day.

    Certainly has the potential to be, inland areas, frost hollows and such..
    Thickness down to 518, good sign that any wintry ppn should make it to sea level.
    368590.png

    PPN showing good chances of snow for nearly all coastal regions and inland areas of the north.
    144-574UK_tuu2.GIF
    The likes of the Mourne and Sperrin ranges should do well in this setup.

    Could well be blizzard conditions up there with a strong N/ NW wind.
    144-515UK_kzs1.GIF

    Any ppn that makes it down futher south should stick nicely with DP's nicely into the negatives.
    144-101UK_gay9.GIF

    EDIT: not to mention the roughly 15c + sea/air temp difference ( = lake effect ;) )


    Anyways ... its still in FI range until Tuesday IMO. So details will still change no doubt.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    12z time... get that refresh button ready !


  • Registered Users Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    VIVA LAS VEGAS :eek:


    7d2AwW.png

    r8gmyT.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Certainly has the potential to be, inland areas, frost hollows and such..

    144-101UK_gay9.GIF

    I always knew this place was a black hole (or a blue one in this case) but now i have solid proof of it

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Large differences between the GFS and UKMO days 5-7, Tuesday at the minimum before we know if this will be a proper cold shot or not.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Quite a difference between the GFS and UKMO at 144. Jury is still out on what happens Saturday.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    We have all seen these false dawns before and it looks like a very brief cold shot but nice to see something this early :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Villain wrote: »
    We have all seen these false dawns before and it looks like a very brief cold shot but nice to see something this early :D


    Jq3giE.png

    Always love the "Cold Polar Air"......


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Indeed Captain Snow, we all live in hope of the infamous "polar low" :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z GEM has a little low pushing down over the country Friday night. North to south. Could be a rain/snow event, could be a spoiler, could dissappear on the 0Z :p


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    We see below the GEM and UKMO fairly similar @144hrs

    GFS
    gfs-0-114_lkg0.png
    GEM
    gem-0-120_qjj1.png
    UKMO
    UW120-21_nap8.GIF

    Personally id like a mixture of the cold air in the GFS , and the embedded low in the GEM :pac:

    Lets see what the ECM has to say.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    A quick scan through the GFS ensembles and 7/20 being good for snow at low levels (-8 t850s) though not much ppn about bar one or two that are similar to the GEM solution with the embedded low trying to form.

    Remaining cautiously optimistic..


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    interesting :)
    gfs-0-108.png?12


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    No northerly on the ECM on Saturday. Cold air but it's Polar Maritime, West/Northwest winds and with pressure of around 1025mb it's looking like it could be pretty dry...

    Sunday looks a little better, winds from the northeast and pressure a little lower, though 850mb temps might be marginal for low level snow.

    Either way, it's all still FI, nothing nailed yet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    And theres your GEM/GFS mix!

    ECU1-120_vsi2.GIF

    ECU0-144_hlg2.GIF

    I'd be happy with that !


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,526 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    No northerly on the ECM on Saturday. Cold air but it's Polar Maritime, West/Northwest winds and with pressure of around 1025mb it's looking like it could be pretty dry...

    :mad::mad::mad::pac:

    26476eq.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Really wish the high ends up a bit further west. Don't want to end up in a situation where England is getting snow and we're stuck trying to squeeze snizzle out of the atmosphere!

    The rest of the 12Z ECM run is interesting though, potential for the cold spell to last a bit longer if the high pressure plays ball instead of flattening.

    Interesting times!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Really wish the high ends up a bit further west. Don't want to end up in a situation where England is getting snow and we're stuck trying to squeeze snizzle out of the atmosphere!

    The rest of the 12Z ECM run is interesting though, potential for the cold spell to last a bit longer if the high pressure plays ball instead of flattening.

    Interesting times!

    Yes, wasn't it that the high was to the west of Ireland back in 2010 and low pressures were to the east of England? Is that correct? Remind me please :o


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The potential for upgrades is there.
    This could go either way really .....24 hour tippler v long potent cold spell.

    I've a feeling this one may go the toppler route but for these charts to exist in mid Nov is what I find exceptional.

    Barring 2010 we just didn't get snow in November during the last 30 years


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,513 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    The potential for upgrades is there.
    This could go either way really .....24 hour tippler v long potent cold spell.

    I've a feeling this one may go the toppler route but for these charts to exist in mid Nov is what I find exceptional.

    Barring 2010 we just didn't get snow in November during the last 30 years
    My money would be on a couple of cold days and maybe a shot of some snow. Then back to normal or just below But been November I'll take that.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 244 ✭✭rickdangerouss


    The potential for upgrades is there.
    This could go either way really .....24 hour tippler v long potent cold spell.

    I've a feeling this one may go the toppler route but for these charts to exist in mid Nov is what I find exceptional.

    Barring 2 0 1 0 we just didn't get snow in November during the last 30 years

    Shhhh... what ever happens, let us all never tell a soul about the chances of the S word.

    So if this does not take place, I will ask the NSA who did it. So no jinxing this.

    Oh not do not place the numbers 2 0 1 0 or 2 0 0 9 together on this forum. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    porncma-0-240.png?12
    pity its so far out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 175 ✭✭teddybones


    porncma-0-240.png?12
    pity its so far out.


    Oooh er naughty


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    A very messy looking cold snap on the GFS this morning. Rain on Saturday turning to wintry showers in the north and on high ground then briefly on lower ground Saturday night before turning back to rain again south of Ulster on Sunday then drying out as the high collapses on us.

    Starting to a feel a bit meh about this.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Starting to a feel a bit meh about this.

    Yep, another winter in Ireland has begun.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    A very messy looking cold snap on the GFS this morning. Rain on Saturday turning to wintry showers in the north and on high ground then briefly on lower ground Saturday night before turning back to rain again south of Ulster on Sunday then drying out as the high collapses on us.

    Starting to a feel a bit meh about this.

    For me its still looks reasonable enough for a pre winter cold snap. Yes one may need to go find the snow. But that can be all part of the fun too.
    Once it doesn't move further east i'll be happy.

    150-780UK_jmx3.GIF


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    For me its still looks reasonable enough for a pre winter cold snap. Yes one may need to go find the snow. But that can be all part of the fun too.
    Once it doesn't move further east i'll be happy.

    150-780UK_jmx3.GIF

    It's just that the charts were looking a lot more interesting a few days ago, now we're getting into that familiar watered down pattern...it's only November so can't really expect much but it's looking less interesting to me now. Still time for things to change of course.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    It's just that the charts were looking a lot more interesting a few days ago, now we're getting into that familiar watered down pattern...it's only November so can't really expect much but it's looking less interesting to me now. Still time for things to change of course.

    Ah I'm at the stage now that I do expect a watering down ahead of time, so if i see, for example -12 850s on a chart id be then hopeful for some -8s closer to the time.

    Might go on a hike up Kippure Sunday morning and see what we get.

    Don't think theres much room for upgrades at this stage. November cold pools are hard to come by.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    judging by those maps this looks like a UK only event which is something we are all too familiar with! Winter hasn't even started yet so hopefully will have better luck next time!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Now this looks a bit more interesting.

    gfs-0-117-3h_nou7.png


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