FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

Iancar29

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

It's looking exceptionally cold to me with Saturday looking like an ice day.

Certainly has the potential to be, inland areas, frost hollows and such..
Thickness down to 518, good sign that any wintry ppn should make it to sea level.


PPN showing good chances of snow for nearly all coastal regions and inland areas of the north.

The likes of the Mourne and Sperrin ranges should do well in this setup.

Could well be blizzard conditions up there with a strong N/ NW wind.


Any ppn that makes it down futher south should stick nicely with DP's nicely into the negatives.


EDIT: not to mention the roughly 15c + sea/air temp difference ( = lake effect )


Anyways ... its still in FI range until Tuesday IMO. So details will still change no doubt.

Iancar29

12z time... get that refresh button ready !

Captain Snow

VIVA LAS VEGAS :eek:

Oneiric 3

Iancar29 wrote: »

Certainly has the potential to be, inland areas, frost hollows and such..

I always knew this place was a black hole (or a blue one in this case) but now i have solid proof of it

BLIZZARD7

Large differences between the GFS and UKMO days 5-7, Tuesday at the minimum before we know if this will be a proper cold shot or not.

maquiladora

Quite a difference between the GFS and UKMO at 144. Jury is still out on what happens Saturday.

Villain

We have all seen these false dawns before and it looks like a very brief cold shot but nice to see something this early

Captain Snow

Villain wrote: »

We have all seen these false dawns before and it looks like a very brief cold shot but nice to see something this early

Always love the "Cold Polar Air"......

Villain

Indeed Captain Snow, we all live in hope of the infamous "polar low"

maquiladora

12Z GEM has a little low pushing down over the country Friday night. North to south. Could be a rain/snow event, could be a spoiler, could dissappear on the 0Z

Iancar29

We see below the GEM and UKMO fairly similar @144hrs

GFS

GEM

UKMO


Personally id like a mixture of the cold air in the GFS , and the embedded low in the GEM :pac:

Lets see what the ECM has to say.

Iancar29

A quick scan through the GFS ensembles and 7/20 being good for snow at low levels (-8 t850s) though not much ppn about bar one or two that are similar to the GEM solution with the embedded low trying to form.

Remaining cautiously optimistic..

icesnowfrost

interesting

maquiladora

No northerly on the ECM on Saturday. Cold air but it's Polar Maritime, West/Northwest winds and with pressure of around 1025mb it's looking like it could be pretty dry...

Sunday looks a little better, winds from the northeast and pressure a little lower, though 850mb temps might be marginal for low level snow.

Either way, it's all still FI, nothing nailed yet.

Iancar29

And theres your GEM/GFS mix!





I'd be happy with that !

Hooter23

maquiladora wrote: »

No northerly on the ECM on Saturday. Cold air but it's Polar Maritime, West/Northwest winds and with pressure of around 1025mb it's looking like it could be pretty dry...

:mad::mad::mad::pac:

maquiladora

Really wish the high ends up a bit further west. Don't want to end up in a situation where England is getting snow and we're stuck trying to squeeze snizzle out of the atmosphere!

The rest of the 12Z ECM run is interesting though, potential for the cold spell to last a bit longer if the high pressure plays ball instead of flattening.

Interesting times!

sryanbruen

maquiladora wrote: »

Really wish the high ends up a bit further west. Don't want to end up in a situation where England is getting snow and we're stuck trying to squeeze snizzle out of the atmosphere!

The rest of the 12Z ECM run is interesting though, potential for the cold spell to last a bit longer if the high pressure plays ball instead of flattening.

Interesting times!

Yes, wasn't it that the high was to the west of Ireland back in 2010 and low pressures were to the east of England? Is that correct? Remind me please

JanuarySnowstor

The potential for upgrades is there.
This could go either way really .....24 hour tippler v long potent cold spell.

I've a feeling this one may go the toppler route but for these charts to exist in mid Nov is what I find exceptional.

Barring 2010 we just didn't get snow in November during the last 30 years

Reckless Abandonment

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The potential for upgrades is there.
This could go either way really .....24 hour tippler v long potent cold spell.

I've a feeling this one may go the toppler route but for these charts to exist in mid Nov is what I find exceptional.

Barring 2010 we just didn't get snow in November during the last 30 years

My money would be on a couple of cold days and maybe a shot of some snow. Then back to normal or just below But been November I'll take that.

rickdangerouss

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The potential for upgrades is there.
This could go either way really .....24 hour tippler v long potent cold spell.

I've a feeling this one may go the toppler route but for these charts to exist in mid Nov is what I find exceptional.

Barring 2 0 1 0 we just didn't get snow in November during the last 30 years

Shhhh... what ever happens, let us all never tell a soul about the chances of the S word.

So if this does not take place, I will ask the NSA who did it. So no jinxing this.

Oh not do not place the numbers 2 0 1 0 or 2 0 0 9 together on this forum.

icesnowfrost

porn
pity its so far out.

teddybones

icesnowfrost wrote: »

porn
pity its so far out.

Oooh er naughty

maquiladora

A very messy looking cold snap on the GFS this morning. Rain on Saturday turning to wintry showers in the north and on high ground then briefly on lower ground Saturday night before turning back to rain again south of Ulster on Sunday then drying out as the high collapses on us.

Starting to a feel a bit meh about this.

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

Starting to a feel a bit meh about this.

Yep, another winter in Ireland has begun.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

A very messy looking cold snap on the GFS this morning. Rain on Saturday turning to wintry showers in the north and on high ground then briefly on lower ground Saturday night before turning back to rain again south of Ulster on Sunday then drying out as the high collapses on us.

Starting to a feel a bit meh about this.

For me its still looks reasonable enough for a pre winter cold snap. Yes one may need to go find the snow. But that can be all part of the fun too.
Once it doesn't move further east i'll be happy.

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

For me its still looks reasonable enough for a pre winter cold snap. Yes one may need to go find the snow. But that can be all part of the fun too.
Once it doesn't move further east i'll be happy.

It's just that the charts were looking a lot more interesting a few days ago, now we're getting into that familiar watered down pattern...it's only November so can't really expect much but it's looking less interesting to me now. Still time for things to change of course.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

It's just that the charts were looking a lot more interesting a few days ago, now we're getting into that familiar watered down pattern...it's only November so can't really expect much but it's looking less interesting to me now. Still time for things to change of course.

Ah I'm at the stage now that I do expect a watering down ahead of time, so if i see, for example -12 850s on a chart id be then hopeful for some -8s closer to the time.

Might go on a hike up Kippure Sunday morning and see what we get.

Don't think theres much room for upgrades at this stage. November cold pools are hard to come by.

Gonzo

judging by those maps this looks like a UK only event which is something we are all too familiar with! Winter hasn't even started yet so hopefully will have better luck next time!

maquiladora

Now this looks a bit more interesting.