FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

maquiladora

Looks like this will be the end of wintry FI charts for the foreseeable future again.

Snowbiee21

maquiladora wrote: »

Looks like this will be the end of wintry FI charts for the foreseeable future again.

Why why

maquiladora

Snowbiee21

maquiladora wrote: »

Warm or cold

Darwin

UK met office is not too hopeful of cold in the immediate future, westerly zonality all the way for the immediate outlook (possibly all the way to January) with the odd Polar Maritime incursion.

martinsvi

maquiladora wrote: »

that pressure gradient - is that a hurricane? 60+mb difference between the eye and the outer circle, uh-oh..

Reckless Abandonment

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Warm or cold

Cold. As you'll probably be missing your roof .

maquiladora

martinsvi wrote: »

that pressure gradient - is that a hurricane? 60+mb difference between the eye and the outer circle, uh-oh..

It's the CFS and 900+ hours away. It's not going to happen.

Iancar29

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Cold. As you'll probably be missing your roof .

martinsvi wrote: »

that pressure gradient - is that a hurricane? 60+mb difference between the eye and the outer circle, uh-oh..

maquiladora wrote: »

It's the CFS and 900+ hours away. It's not going to happen.

And it wouldn't be a hurricane anyways as its a cold core system aka extra tropical cyclone.

Rebelbrowser

I know the CFS is very long range but thought I'd share this extract from a post which I've already posted in the White Christmas thread..


".... Just as a final observation, the CFS shows it being consistently cool (cold at times) from around 10th Jan to mid Feb with 850 hpa uppers at -2 or below at virtually all times and plenty of "pink" all over much of Europe. I attach a typical enough chart from the period....




Plenty of interest to come accordingly....."

pauldry

Love the CFS.

Do people actually get employed to forecast the weather "we want"?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

pauldry wrote: »

Love the CFS.

Do people actually get employed to forecast the weather "we want"?

Ha. I could do that job !

Oneiric 3

Just for fun but tonight's GFS 12z looking relatively vigorous in FI.

highdef

Well this evenings gfs really is teasing us!

maquiladora

ECM putting out some interesting stuff.

216



240

maquiladora

06Z GFS deep FI

Storm 10

Any more stormy weather on the way maq, what is the latest on Hurricane Kate.

B17G

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS deep FI

Minus eight uppers over the NE.

maquiladora

Storm 10 wrote: »

Any more stormy weather on the way maq, what is the latest on Hurricane Kate.

Remains of Kate won't be anything too interesting here. Plenty of rain and 90-100 km/h gusts on the west coast I'd say.

maquiladora

12Z ECM.

Timmyboy

I'd say that's a good chance of potential snow towards the middle of week after next!
By a good chance, this means that it's probably at 70% likely hood that there will be snow on the mountains over 2500 feet.
This is more hope that anything scientific from me but I do like the look of the recent ECMWF charts.

maquiladora

12Z ECM ensemble shows the operational run wasn't an outlier. That's a pretty clear signal for a 50 member ensemble mean at 192 hours out. Whether it'll be right or not is a different question, but this is just the FI thread :P

sryanbruen

Listen to this forecast, I hope it comes true! :)

http://www.bbc.com/weather/features/34816131

maquiladora

Next Saturday on the 06Z GFS




Though this run looks like it'll end up being a toppler rather than a sustained cold spell, we'll see. Still FI land.

Iancar29

GFS 12z still showing some wintry ppn the end of next week but is definitely a toppler setup and not a lasting cold spell.




What we want to see is the Canadian ridge forming a solid cut off high over Greenland.


AnywaysInteresting times ahead still..

Lets see what the ECM has to offer ...

Hooter23

The charts will change but lots of potential there on current charts with weather coming down from the north west / north at times and winter hasn't even started yet:)

maquiladora

Still looking at a cooldown next weekend. GFS has about a 24 window for wintry showers before the high collapses on us Sunday morning. North/northwest areas with best chances here :



ECM keeps that window open a bit longer, about 48 hours. North/northeast areas with best chances here.



In short, the further north you are the better for wintry showers.

After that, at the moment it looks like we might have a dry, cool period for a while under high pressure. Still all FI of course.

JanuarySnowstor

It's looking exceptionally cold to me with Saturday looking like an ice day.
All to play for but need the 12Z to upgrade a bit.

Is your definition of cool 2 to 5 maq?
Because temps will be no higher on sat and pbly closer to zero imo

Agree with the 24 hour windows alright.
It is a blink n you miss affair but quite potent

maquiladora

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

It's looking exceptionally cold to me with Saturday looking like an ice day.
All to play for but need the 12Z to upgrade a bit.

Is your definition of cool 2 to 5 maq?
Because temps will be no higher on sat and pbly closer to zero imo

Agree with the 24 hour windows alright.
It is a blink n you miss affair but quite potent

Too early to know exact temperatures at this stage, 06Z GFS is showing 1-7 Saturday afternoon but it's still 150 hours away, we don't know if there will be shortwaves interrupting the flow or if the high will collapse quicker. Just safe to say "cool" at this stage but cold looking very possible.

esposito

Hoping for very cold temps next weekend but used to being disappointed from the recent past. Not too optimistic tbh - I think temps will be in the 4-8 range and won't be cold enough for snow (except on mountains in north)

I hope I'm wrong but the goddam mild weather just never seems to be far away does it. Still, good to see these charts so early.
We might just have a significant cold shot from the north/east this winter