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FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1
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sryanbruen wrote: »If only this actually happened! But no it will sadly not
What is this chart saying its bringing?0 -
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maquiladora wrote: »It's 348 hours out, which is in the extremely unreliable time-frame. FI stands for Fantasy Island. These charts are just for fun until you get till around 148-168 hours out and even then it can completely change quite easily.
Like the end of the world in 2012
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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sryanbruen wrote: »Like the end of the world in 2012
I don't think the Mayans were taking leap years into account, so they may have only been out by a few years :pac:0 -
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Boy oh boy
EDIT:
Just had a look through the GFS ensembles and made a few notes. Being honest I'm a bit lazy tonight so I only looked at 850hpa temperatures, didn't look at pressure or precipitation. Will do that when and if these good scenarios move out of FI and become serious possibilities.
There are 20 variations in the ensemble. Most of the runs which show cold towards the end of November unfortunately also show a large lobe of heat building from the equatorial Atlantic towards Greenland, and this then being swept Eastwards by the jet stream towards us. I've made a list of the ensembles which actually look promising:
3, 6, 10,and 11 are the best ones.
6 in particular is the absolute holy grail. with very cold uppers which persist for several days at the end of the run, and beyond.
2, 7, and 19 are good, but look like they're getting ready to dissipate (about to warm up) at +384 hours, beyond which the models don't run so I could be wrong about this. Just seems like that's the way it's going for Ireland in those runs, you can see warmth spreading nearby.
4, 15, and 17 are the opposite of the above - no sub-zero temperatures on these charts, but they look towards the tail end of the run like the cold is about to envelope Ireland.
How I'm judging a good and bad run is fairly simple - whether the zero degree isotherm is above, below, or splitting Ireland. We need that isotherm to the south of us before we can even talk about snow persisting on the ground. Obviously the truly epic runs (variation +6 is amazing, check it out in case it disappears on the next run) have temperatures of -4 to -8 on them, but at least getting the 0 isotherm properly below Ireland is a start, because it implies that the jet stream has moved to the south which can potentially allow cold northern air to sweep downwards.
Back in 2010, what happened was that the jet stream formed "waves", so that it swung sharply to the North just before Greenland, peaked there, and then was rammed sharply South where it remained until it had passed Ireland. What I don't yet understand, and somebody feel free to educate me if they know this, is the chicken-and-egg status of the jet stream moving and the blocking high which formed over Greenland that November. In other words, did the jet stream shift because the block forced it to, or did the block form because of the jet stream's unusual behaviour?0 -
. Wonder what precip it will bring, hopefully some of the white stuff 😊😏😏😏hatrickpatrick wrote: »Boy oh boy
EDIT:
Just had a look through the GFS ensembles and made a few notes. Being honest I'm a bit lazy tonight so I only looked at 850hpa temperatures, didn't look at pressure or precipitation. Will do that when and if these good scenarios move out of FI and become serious possibilities.
There are 20 variations in the ensemble. Most of the runs which show cold towards the end of November unfortunately also show a large lobe of heat building from the equatorial Atlantic towards Greenland, and this then being swept Eastwards by the jet stream towards us. I've made a list of the ensembles which actually look promising:
3, 6, 10,and 11 are the best ones.
6 in particular is the absolute holy grail. with very cold uppers which persist for several days at the end of the run, and beyond.
2, 7, and 19 are good, but look like they're getting ready to dissipate (about to warm up) at +384 hours, beyond which the models don't run so I could be wrong about this. Just seems like that's the way it's going for Ireland in those runs, you can see warmth spreading nearby.
4, 15, and 17 are the opposite of the above - no sub-zero temperatures on these charts, but they look towards the tail end of the run like the cold is about to envelope Ireland.
How I'm judging a good and bad run is fairly simple - whether the zero degree isotherm is above, below, or splitting Ireland. We need that isotherm to the south of us before we can even talk about snow persisting on the ground. Obviously the truly epic runs (variation +6 is amazing, check it out in case it disappears on the next run) have temperatures of -4 to -8 on them, but at least getting the 0 isotherm properly below Ireland is a start, because it implies that the jet stream has moved to the south which can potentially allow cold northern air to sweep downwards.
Back in 2010, what happened was that the jet stream formed "waves", so that it swung sharply to the North just before Greenland, peaked there, and then was rammed sharply South where it remained until it had passed Ireland. What I don't yet understand, and somebody feel free to educate me if they know this, is the chicken-and-egg status of the jet stream moving and the blocking high which formed over Greenland that November. In other words, did the jet stream shift because the block forced it to, or did the block form because of the jet stream's unusual behaviour?0 -
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Snowbiee21 wrote: ». Wonder what precip it will bring, hopefully some of the white stuff 😊😏😏😏
Shaded white line areas are snow
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High pressure is now trying to edge its way up to Greenland near the ends of the main GFS and ECM runs. It's having only varying measures of success and is generally being swept aside fairly quickly, but the fact that charts with such a distorted polar vortex are appearing this early in November is a good sign indeed. Believe 0
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Captain Snow wrote: »November 2010 repeat ?
We can dream
This is shaping up to be the most interesting November in years. Last year and the year before, even FI didn't hint at anything like this.
Where the hell is Redsunset with his SSW tracking?0 -
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hatrickpatrick wrote: »We can dream
This is shaping up to be the most interesting November in years. Last year and the year before, even FI didn't hint at anything like this.
Where the hell is Redsunset with his SSW tracking?
https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84231-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20152016/0
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