FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

Iancar29

patneve2 wrote: »

Well, interesting ECM in FI with cold high pressure that would bring unseasonable heavy frost at night. GFS, on the other hand, goes for more of what we had last year with PM air exiting Canada/Greenland and reaching our shores in brisk W winds.

Yeah the ECM looks like it could bring the first snow to high ground next week if its right. Northerly straight from the North Pole.

Darwin

Both the 12z runs of the GFS and UKMO showing quite a potent low for next Monday, centre of low goes north of us on GFS and south of us on UKMO. ECMWF making nothing of it at present, but the later 12z run should be interesting....

maquiladora

Darwin wrote: »

Both the 12z runs of the GFS and UKMO showing quite a potent low for next Monday, centre of low goes north of us on GFS and south of us on UKMO. ECMWF making nothing of it at present, but the later 12z run should be interesting....

12Z ECM doesn't develop it.

Hooter23

So its either potentially stormy or cold and frosty interesting whichever way it turns out...

Iancar29

Today's eye candy from the CFS :pac:

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

Today's eye candy from the CFS :pac:

And a White Christmas in Saint-Tropez!

pauldry

Love the CFS (complete fantasy snow) Forecast;)

Oneiric 3

Be interesting to see if the latest ECM 240 chart verifies. I don't think I have ever seen such a huge and extensive anticyclone over Central Europe at this time of year.

gerrybhoy

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Be interesting to see if the latest ECM 240 chart verifies. I don't think I have ever seen such a huge and extensive anticyclone over Central Europe at this time of year.

right what does that mean

Gonzo

gerrybhoy wrote: »

right what does that mean

looks like summer fantasy land just 4 months too late.

dexter647

gerrybhoy wrote: »

right what does that mean

A bore fest for this time of year:(

Meteorite58

The end of next week sees a possible cold plunge down over Ireland. White tops on mountains perhaps ?

ninebeanrows

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The end of next week sees a possible cold plunge down over Ireland. White tops on mountains perhaps ?

Them charts aren't cold though. Maybe some returning PM airmass, but certainly no snow from them i wouldn't have thought.

FWVT

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The end of next week sees a possible cold plunge down over Ireland. White tops on mountains perhaps ?

Those colours refer to 500 hPa heights, not thickness or temperature. Just a deep low-pressure system

B17G

Some of the ensembles hinting at a possible storm next weekend.

maquiladora

FI looking real boring at the moment. :rolleyes:

Bring on any kind of interesting weather, please.

Rebelbrowser

If you want to be really depressed I just looked at the CFS all the way out to 21 January 2016. The coldest 850 uppers it forecasts between now and new year are a brief flirtation with -3's / -4's in early December. Most of the time uppers are well in excess of 0c. Its a bit better in Jan 2016 but still no -6's, let alone -8's......

And yes, I know its only the CFS.

maquiladora

Stormy conditions for the west coast around 144 hours on the 06Z GFS but the low will probably be weaker/further offshore on the next run so very much FI stuff.

maquiladora

Tail end of the 0Z GFS run. :P

arctictree

12z GFS still going for a cold theme but a bit earlier:

maquiladora

Stormy conditions for the west on Friday on the 12Z GFS but the UKMO and ECM don't develop the low, so it's FI stuff even though its only 96 hours.

maquiladora

:P

maquiladora

Once again, GFS probably overdoing it with another low.

hatrickpatrick

maquiladora wrote: »

:P

This is pretty much the holy grail of wintry weather

maquiladora

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

This is pretty much the holy grail of wintry weather

Nah I think that would be closer to this.

Rebelbrowser

maquiladora wrote: »

Nah I think that would be closer to this.

Apologies if this is the wrong thread for this and/or if its too much of an ask. I wonder though could one of the more knowledgeable contributors here explain what it is about Maq's chart above that makes it so wintry. Maq having identified it as wintry I believe I understand it (if I am right its cold air sourced in Russia feeding into a low pressure system to our south leading to snowmaggedon) - but if I was just shown that chart in the abstract I'm not sure if I'd have come to the same conclusion. I generally need to look at (upper) temp charts also just to confirm my read of a chart is correct. I can't be the only one either I also suspect.

Just a thought on educating us masses with winter coming....

Iancar29

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Apologies if this is the wrong thread for this and/or if its too much of an ask. I wonder though could one of the more knowledgeable contributors here explain what it is about Maq's chart above that makes it so wintry. Maq having identified it as wintry I believe I understand it (if I am right its cold air sourced in Russia feeding into a low pressure system to our south leading to snowmaggedon) - but if I was just shown that chart in the abstract I'm not sure if I'd have come to the same conclusion. I generally need to look at (upper) temp charts also just to confirm my read of a chart is correct. I can't be the only one either I also suspect.

Just a thought on educating us masses with winter coming....

Yeah ur pretty much correct. There we have cold air sourced from a cold continent, a low pressure undercutting a high to bring strong instability ( heavy snow showers) and a blocked atlantic to keep the dominant wind easterly in direction.

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

Yeah ur pretty much correct. There we have cold air sourced from a cold continent, a low pressure undercutting a high to bring strong instability ( heavy snow showers) and a blocked atlantic to keep the dominant wind easterly in direction.

Indeed, blocked Atlantic, easterly flow, cold pool over Ireland and most important of all the low delivering copious amounts of frontal snow with strong winds. Drifts over 300cm.

http://www.irishidentity.com/extras/weather/stories/bigsnow.htm

Baggy Trousers

maquiladora wrote: »

http://www.irishidentity.com/extras/weather/stories/bigsnow.htm

That's a great read!

Iancar29

I'll just leave these here... :pac: