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FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

  • 27-08-2015 5:57pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭


    Mod Note
    This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards


    Never to early to start the fun of looking through some extreme FI charts for storms and cold spells.


    I shall start the post with a rant....

    IF ONLY IT WAS WINTER ALREADY!!

    Big Scandi High...
    cfsnh-0-714_uok2.png

    And a classic gif to start with :pac:
    hitler-s-rant-o.gif


«13456715

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    By the time Winter gets here the Azores high will have moved in.

    It would be very typical.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,771 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Lucreto wrote: »
    By the time Winter gets here the Azores high will have moved in.

    It would be very typical.

    Indeed - we have a climate that is rather frustrating for those of us who enjoy a seasonal fair:( and it would be typical to now have a run of mild months through the winter after such a frigid spring/summer for most


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,467 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    First weekend of September. Sure this'd be grand! :D

    gfs-0-222.png?6


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Yeah even the ensembles are showing classic " back to school weather " with high pressure showing potentially for the next two weeks.

    360372.png


    Minimal ppn due to this.
    360371.png

    It won't be a heatwaves though with t850s being showing colder than average for the first 8-10 days at least.
    360373.png
    One of my favourite types of weather , dry and sunny but cool enough to be able to get out and about without melting away.
    And of course being able to sleep at night!! :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,171 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Getting nippy toward end of November according to the ever reliable CFS (coldest chart I could find out to late November!)..

    15112100_3000.gif


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    ECM develops the remnants of TS henri slightly more aggressively than the gfs
    ECM1-96_llu8.GIF


    gfs-0-96_omc8.png

    Still only warning criteria for southern England for rain and NW France for winds. Ireland not effected much on this run IMO.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Strong FI storm on the GEM tonight.

    afuO97J.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,675 ✭✭✭ronnie3585


    Strong FI storm on the GEM tonight.

    Highest tides in 18 years for Galway that evening. Such low pressure and strong westerlies would not be helpful.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,188 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Strong FI storm on the GEM tonight.
    I prefer the ECM myself! Has it hit 20c anywhere this month? If this comes off it certainly will.
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015092012/ECM1-192.GIF?20-0


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Bit of an Indian summer maybe?

    ECM1-192_sng6.GIF


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Even better. Pity it's FI and not in July. :pac:

    ECM1-216_qsi8.GIF


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 89 ✭✭Backpack20


    Any update on that storm you posted about that could hit next Monday ? Not that great at reading them charts ..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Backpack20 wrote: »
    Any update on that storm you posted about that could hit next Monday ? Not that great at reading them charts ..

    That's disappeared now, it was just shown on one model on that day.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,188 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    An Indian summer now odds on and this is the first post here in over 24 hours!:confused: Was it 2011 or '12 when Dublin recorded 26c at the very end of Sept?
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015092212/ECM1-144.GIF?22-0


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    An Indian summer now odds on and this is the first post here in over 24 hours!:confused: Was it 2011 or '12 when Dublin recorded 26c at the very end of Sept?
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015092212/ECM1-144.GIF?22-0

    There was a couple of warm days towards the end of Sept 2011 which peaked on the 28th.

    363385.PNG

    Tight isobar gradient coupled with specific wind direction suggest a possible fohn influence on local temps

    New Moon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    There was a couple of warm days towards the end of Sept 2011 which peaked on the 28th.

    363385.PNG

    Tight isobar gradient coupled with specific wind direction suggest a possible fohn influence on local temps

    25 in Dublin that day. Was there warmest September day there for around 100 years if I remember right.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,283 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Recorded max. of 23.2c on 29.09.11. Would love a bit of that now!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,188 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    25 in Dublin that day. Was there warmest September day there for around 100 years if I remember right.
    Good memory! :) I had a look at Met.ie and it was the warmest day in Dublin for 105 years, the record stands at 27.6c on Sept 2nd 1906. The 25.7c in 2011 (28th) didn't come close to setting a new record but it was four weeks later in the month and after the equinox which makes a remarkable temperature for the time of year.
    By the way today is the equinox but I doubt if we'll see anything like 2011 in the coming week.
    The 12z GFS and UKMO identical at +144. I think western areas might see their highest temperatures of 2015 in the last week of September!!
    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015092312/gfs-0-144.png?12


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Some extreme cherry picking on the 6z ensembles we get a hint of what would probably be the first wintry showers of the season if the following charts came to fruition.

    Cold north westerly flow
    gens-16-0-204_igr8.png

    An embedded trough would probably bring the first flakes to high ground in the N & NW
    gens-16-1-204_pmt1.png


    Let the madness begin... ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,467 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Some extreme cherry picking on the 6z ensembles we get a hint of what would probably be the first wintry showers of the season if the following charts came to fruition.

    Cold north westerly flow
    gens-16-0-204_igr8.png

    An embedded trough would probably bring the first flakes to high ground in the N & NW
    gens-16-1-204_pmt1.png


    Let the madness begin... ;)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    A proper wind to get the leaves off the tress perhaps? :)
    gens-12-1-192_xpa2.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    hopefully won't happen, as much as I want whiteout conditions all winter, first week of October is too much too soon, would like another 3 weeks of 16+ temps before we settle into winter!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Always good to look at the CFS for some daydreaming :pac: :rolleyes:

    cfsnh-0-1614_evl7.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,208 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Settled weather showing up out to the far reaches of FI with a big High Pressure in over the country for a few days or more perhaps ( models fairly consistent the last few days).

    Is1tsU2.png?1


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Yep cool, dry, bright days and cold frosty/foggy nights ... BRING IT :D

    With that setup its increasingly likely more of eastern Europe will get more snow in their forecasts. Will be interesting to watch the snow/ice advance this season!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Yep cool, dry, bright days and cold frosty/foggy nights ... BRING IT :D

    With that setup its increasingly likely more of eastern Europe will get more snow in their forecasts. Will be interesting to watch the snow/ice advance this season!

    It's that time of year again where we start to hear about those theories of the "rate of westward expansion of snowcover during October..." etc. Judah Cohen was it?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    A little teaser at the end of tonight's GFS run (if you desperately scour the ensembles hard enough)
    gens-5-1-372_rvj3.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Anyone like to offer an theory as to why high pressure has been, with just brief interruption so persistent over the last month or so and why it appears to be hanging around for a while yet. If only we'd had this set up in June/July.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,208 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Early days of next week looking cool, wet and windy....

    6qWbXIE.png?1

    PaXvlMb.png?1

    7wAeq28.gif?1


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Well, interesting ECM in FI with cold high pressure that would bring unseasonable heavy frost at night. GFS, on the other hand, goes for more of what we had last year with PM air exiting Canada/Greenland and reaching our shores in brisk W winds.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    patneve2 wrote: »
    Well, interesting ECM in FI with cold high pressure that would bring unseasonable heavy frost at night. GFS, on the other hand, goes for more of what we had last year with PM air exiting Canada/Greenland and reaching our shores in brisk W winds.

    Yeah the ECM looks like it could bring the first snow to high ground next week if its right. Northerly straight from the North Pole.
    ECM1-168_fqr5.GIF


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,689 ✭✭✭Darwin


    Both the 12z runs of the GFS and UKMO showing quite a potent low for next Monday, centre of low goes north of us on GFS and south of us on UKMO. ECMWF making nothing of it at present, but the later 12z run should be interesting....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Darwin wrote: »
    Both the 12z runs of the GFS and UKMO showing quite a potent low for next Monday, centre of low goes north of us on GFS and south of us on UKMO. ECMWF making nothing of it at present, but the later 12z run should be interesting....

    12Z ECM doesn't develop it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,526 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    So its either potentially stormy or cold and frosty interesting whichever way it turns out...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Today's eye candy from the CFS :pac:

    cfs-0-1194_ijo4.png

    cfs-2-1194_ocf8.png


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Today's eye candy from the CFS :pac:

    cfs-0-1194_ijo4.png

    cfs-2-1194_ocf8.png

    And a White Christmas in Saint-Tropez!

    cfs-0-1542_xou9.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,242 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Love the CFS (complete fantasy snow) Forecast;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Be interesting to see if the latest ECM 240 chart verifies. I don't think I have ever seen such a huge and extensive anticyclone over Central Europe at this time of year.

    LgWXJjZ.gif

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 514 ✭✭✭gerrybhoy


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Be interesting to see if the latest ECM 240 chart verifies. I don't think I have ever seen such a huge and extensive anticyclone over Central Europe at this time of year.

    LgWXJjZ.gif
    right what does that mean


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    gerrybhoy wrote: »
    right what does that mean

    looks like summer fantasy land just 4 months too late.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭dexter647


    gerrybhoy wrote: »
    right what does that mean


    A bore fest for this time of year:(


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,208 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The end of next week sees a possible cold plunge down over Ireland. White tops on mountains perhaps ?



    ICRMkG4.png?1


    N7YO2bH.png?1


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    The end of next week sees a possible cold plunge down over Ireland. White tops on mountains perhaps ?



    ICRMkG4.png?1


    N7YO2bH.png?1

    Them charts aren't cold though. Maybe some returning PM airmass, but certainly no snow from them i wouldn't have thought.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 922 ✭✭✭FWVT


    The end of next week sees a possible cold plunge down over Ireland. White tops on mountains perhaps ?



    ICRMkG4.png?1


    N7YO2bH.png?1

    Those colours refer to 500 hPa heights, not thickness or temperature. Just a deep low-pressure system


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭B17G


    Some of the ensembles hinting at a possible storm next weekend.

    gens-4-1-150_zmq0.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    FI looking real boring at the moment. :rolleyes:

    Bring on any kind of interesting weather, please.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,171 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    If you want to be really depressed I just looked at the CFS all the way out to 21 January 2016. The coldest 850 uppers it forecasts between now and new year are a brief flirtation with -3's / -4's in early December. Most of the time uppers are well in excess of 0c. Its a bit better in Jan 2016 but still no -6's, let alone -8's......

    And yes, I know its only the CFS.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Stormy conditions for the west coast around 144 hours on the 06Z GFS but the low will probably be weaker/further offshore on the next run so very much FI stuff.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Tail end of the 0Z GFS run. :P

    gfsnh-0-384_uts7.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,347 ✭✭✭arctictree


    12z GFS still going for a cold theme but a bit earlier:

    Rtavn3121.gif


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