FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

I've never really gotten the fuss with easterlies, we've had a handful of them over the past 20 years and they never amounted to anything particularly interesting or memorable. Usually means high pressure just to our north which suppresses shower activity to nothing more than coastal flurries (March 2013 being the main example).

A low pressure dominated north easterly sourced from Scandinavia/Svalbard is more the holy grail for the east coast I'd say.

True arctic northerlies are also extremely rare, I don't think we've had one since 2010 and before then it was Dec 2000 and 1995. We're overdue one if anything

I take it you don't live in the East?

Im in Cavan. We were buried in snow from the Easterly before Emma made an appearance. I think it was the perfect mix.

"Hello darkness, my old friend"

From next weekend onward, temperatures look like dipping closer to the average for the time of year while it will become a little more unsettled as high pressure shifts away from Ireland. A zonal Atlantic flow is favoured for the following week.

ECM 12z FI 😵

Increasing signs that Atlantic systems may approach our shores next weekend as high pressure weakens to our east. This means more unsettled conditions with rain and stronger winds. Temperatures will remain close to average for the time of year.ICON, GFS and GEM 12z output below.

The big two models are showing plenty of wet weather from next Friday/Saturday onwards once the high over NW France retreats. However, it is FI, so lets hope they're over-cooking the rainfall totals from January 18th to 26th.

The GFS has toned down the 'mild' from the SW flow this coming week, however the ECM is intent on seeing us get into the 13c to 14c range.

Let's hope the GFS is closer to what happens.

Noo 😩

I arrive on the 19th and fly out again on the 24th

Would love some dry days so we can go places

Years away but nothing else happening

so you mean there’s a chance ??

I think it was Joanna said day 10 charts aren’t worth the crayons they’re written with,so I’d say every chance

Not until the North American cold has been washed out of the system though and that would indeed take 2 weeks unless it reloads

Unfortunately as the jet stream is usually west to East and North America is a giant land mass bordering on the warmer Atlantic,cold shotssouth there usually do get caught up in the jet stream firing rainy cold lows our way

That’s climate for you

I am open to correction but I don’t think there was northern blocking in the February ‘91 spell

The NAO is just a number reflecting the contrast between low pressure towards Greenland and the pole and high pressure towards the Azores,it’s positive under normal climatic conditions and negative when that’s inclined to reverse

When you see it trending one way or the other it’s just shorthand for those highs and lows being in their usual or opposite positions really as reflected in FI

That part isn’t super cast on stone in terms of being better to predict but it’s kind of

Yes, the February 1991 cold spell happened with a positive NAO and in the absence of northern blocking. A situation like that is unfortunately as rare as hens teeth. The long range models point to a mild Feburary- but as we have seen with long range models in recent times they can be wrong, so posters should not be absolute about ruling out colder weather in February.