FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123145744#Comment_123145744

Beyond 240 hrs the ECM heads for the freezer with snow showers in to eastern counties. Not bad at all.

nacho libre

Yes, the ECM is dangling the carrot. This looks like a robust block so any model bringing back the Atlantic might not be correct. The longer the block holds on the greater the chance of something like what the latest ECM shows happening. This winter hasn't really panned out the way a lot of seasonal models were suggesting. It would be great to get a snowy easterly- let the east have a a few days of snow showers then a two day snow dump courtesy of a stalling front for much of the country as the Atlantic fails to win out. Carlsberg don't do the perfect cold spells, but if they did...

TheMilkyPirate

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123145784#Comment_123145784

Agreed this is only going one way

Kermit.de.frog

Not time to get excited but the trend is good at least. The run up to the BFTE was characterised by incremental upgrades with each day. Might we see a repeat? A long way to go.

rooney30

Ok, let’s keep the popcorn on hold for another day or two so.

bazlers

Is it too much to ask for tightly packed contours stretching from the depths of the Eurals!!!

WolfeEire

KMA still has a plentiful supply of nose candy

TheMilkyPirate

If this comes off the KMA is the new standard 😂

Ros4Sam24

Gfs 18z quite a good run with cold beating the Atlantic and some heavy snow for the SE in FI

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123141712#Comment_123141712

an example from tonight. Plenty of talk in the last week of snowstorms but it has fallen through

Gonzo

Hopefully the snow starved East will get some snow streamers for at least 24 to 36 hours before the end of February, we deserve it, it's been a long painful wait to catch a few flakes apart from a few isolated areas that did well since 2018. The thing that has surprised me the most this entire winter is the lack of enthusiasm from those in the south, south-west and mid-west who had huge snowfalls a few weeks ago to the point where they don't want to see anymore. What am I missing? If it was me I would just want more. Unlike wind, cloud and rain, Snow never get's old. I am more than happy to take a huge snowfall within the next 2 weeks from an easterly if those from the west and south-west don't seem to really want it.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123147271#Comment_123147271

I think it’s appreciated more in urban areas where we don’t lose power and roads get gritted while we still get the beauty of the snow. Would have been different if Cork city, Waterford city or (although it got more snow) Limerick city got 6 inch falls instead of the little bit we saw

Gonzo

Looking at the 18z is not worth paying attention to, it's a huge range of scatter past February 14th from +5 Uppers to -12 Uppers and everything in-between, total chaos where absolutely every scenario is on the table. A model mess. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123147277#Comment_123147277

That's probably the thing with the recent very snowy spell in Southern and South-western areas away from coastal areas, mostly very low populated areas, rural roads, hinterlands, villages and a few small towns so not that much of the population saw huge snow falls this winter since all the well populated coastal areas saw next to nothing this winter as well as the north-eastern half of the country. If the snowfalls of the inland south, mid west and south-west had happened across the large urban centres of Limerick, Galway, Cork, waterford and the Greater Dublin Area there would have been way more noise of delighted snow bunnies and disruption of services, work and public transport.

bazlers

Very nice chart from GFS. Again alot of charts so far out tend to look pretty. Hopefully it will count down. The only thing i would say i would like to see a better cut to the gradient to pile the streamers in. Looks a bit slack. Certainly cold. Long way to go.

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123147271#Comment_123147271

Lack of enthusiasm from the south? When the weight of snow destroys the gutters on houses and farm roofs collapse over the weight of snow,the enthusiasm doesn't long run out!! That on top of roads being impassable and some people unable to get vital medication,on top of the elderly unable to get out and do shopping. No one to clear a road only local farmers. Around here anyway everyone was sick of the snow with the hardship it brought and absolutely no help from any authorities. Sorry for going off topic.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123147607#Comment_123147607

Well the snow you had was heavy wet snow due to the moisture content. Any snow from cold air coming from the east if it were to happen would be the dry type and not nearly as heavy with not as much moisture content.

pauldry

It looks like one of these years. Cold or very cold out to the end of February. Maybe some decent dry spells March and April and then a cool Summer.

The 18th february is the date that keeps showing on my phone for very cold weather. Feels like MINUS 9 and then 1c actual daytime. As Galway Beo would say "killer cold spell to last for weeks"

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123147858#Comment_123147858

yet in 2018,an awful lot of shed roofs including mine fell in with the weight of the snow in Wicklow and Wexford ,but that was sheer quantity

Roofs ,especially flat roofs are not designed for 3 feet of snow on top of them

The truck weighing scales at Inch CoOp half way between Gorey and Arklow had a weight measurement of the level snow on it which the insurance companies used in their reports on the sheds

Gonzo

I remember alot of people really enjoyed the 2018 snow event and that was alot of snow, I particularly remember people building Igloo's and powering up their Playstation 4s inside them! Back to the models and we seem to be inching our way closer to a cold spell in the second half of February but not quiet there yet.

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123147858#Comment_123147858

Wet snow,dry snow,powdery snow,snow is snow.....

Calibos

I'm not sure the models are including all relevant variables in their output…

…I'm putting on those Michelin Cross Climate 2 All Weather tyres on my car on Tuesday.

Appologies to all the snow lovers here!

Thunder87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123147271#Comment_123147271

Ah heyor. Unless you have the luxury of being able to spend your whole life in your own home with no responsibilities then snow very quickly becomes a hardship and annoyance. I love a good snowfall as much as the next person on here but after a few days of slipping on footpaths, being unable to safely drive anywhere, having huge heating bills etc I'm glad for it to be gone again

On the current charts, I'm not really liking the looks of the way things are headed, any real cold is still right at the end of the run so just hoping we don't end up with yet another winter that drags into the spring with a cold miserable March.

At least it's looking like a mostly dry spell in the week ahead but the cold wind is making it too unpleasant to spend any time outdoors at the moment

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123147995#Comment_123147995

I've not had any snow since Dec 2022 so I will take any snow I can get if I get any this month. Not as if spring is all that far away at this stage anyway.

Gonzo

As much as I love snow I don't really want to see it after the first week of March, preferably keep it to February. Snow rarely stays on the ground for a day in March unless you get something exceptional like what happened in 2018. The much talked about cold March of 2013 we had several snowfalls throughout that month but they were all melted before midday. 2018 was an exceptional year tho, the snow in February/March and then a truly wonderful summer with plenty of sunshine and temperatures regularly well into the 20s.

WolfeEire

Beyond Thursday our weather is a lot more uncertain with latest data showing equal chances of a more Atlantic dominated weather setup and a colder northeasterly or easterly setup. It is so evenly matched that Ireland looks like being on the dividing line between milder and much colder air by Thursday. This could lead to return of more widespread rain, at least for the western half of Ireland.

This afternoon’s ICON model significantly weakens the Atlantic’s push toward Ireland which allows for a greater surge of cold air from the continent toward Ireland. The dividing line between colder and less cold airmasses gets rooted over northern Britain from Wednesday. Any further weaking of the Atlantic will allow for a greater push west of cold air due to the anticipated amplifying of heights linking Scandinavia and Greenland.

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123148697#Comment_123148697

The ukmo is looking very good, cold uppers surging in by next Saturday, the lads on netweather seem to hold it in high regard. Gfs in the12z run wants to make a meal out of an Azores high whereas the rest of the models keep it well south.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123148932#Comment_123148932

The GFS op run has some support but it is much milder than the mean, which is colder than the 06z.

Ros4Sam24

Gfs ensembles to day 10. We could be a while resolving this one!

WolfeEire

I think the ECM may follow the UKMO's lead in reinforcing the block and bringing in much colder conditions next weekend.

pureza

usually there’s something upstream causing this much uncertainty/scatter ,what is it this time?

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123149085#Comment_123149085

Bingo. C'est arrive

The ECM amplifies the block from Scandinavia through Greenland and drags in very cold northeasterly winds next weekend into the start of the following week. This is well beyond the reliable forecasting period (3-5 days) but the potential for a very cold spell of weather from mid-month is increasing. Based on all output, the risk of same is now around 50%. A long road to travel for such an outcome to verify.

Ros4Sam24

The ECM is a beauty from day 8 right through FI

mcriot29

way too far out last week

It was showing it from the 12th

Nao and solar output will most likely cancel it

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123149271#Comment_123149271

The ingredients are there we just need the correct quantities to enjoy our cake!!

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123149271#Comment_123149271

I wish these juicy charts were valid from Tues/Wed next week and not from next weekend. It just feels so far away in weather terms. The painful countdown…

Ros4Sam24

In fairness the 15/16th were signalled for the start of some potential cold, that has not changed

Meteorite58

Big difference though between the ECM and GFS ( being firmly inside the less cold side of boundary ), GEM leaning towards the cold and UKMO likewise. ACCESS-G in no man's land, ICON likewise but leaning a bit towards cold.

ECM has some very deep cold over the entire country, which would give very hard frosts and no doubt a chance of snow if there was a source of moisture about and streamers along the East coast.

No clear picture but would think there is a reasonable chance of continuing cooler weather and perhaps leaning towards it becoming colder. Would need to see more consensus between the models to give a clearer trend. Will certainly be needing the heat on over the coming weeks , rainfall in general not to much and very light in areas more central and East. No threatening strong winds on the horizon so that is a plus giving time for the country to get back to normal.

ECM 12Z certainly a very cold run.

bazlers

During Late February 2018 where was the cold actually sourced? Was it svalbard or Barents sea area or am i way off?

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123149579#Comment_123149579

Tonight’s ECM is more 2010 sources than 2018

It’s a shorter track for the super cold NE of here but a lovely fetch over the Irish sea would pummel the East with airport shutting snow showers if it happened,you’d hope they have those John Deere tractors and ploughs they invested in ready?

2018 came via Moscow

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123149377#Comment_123149377

Pity they aren't in a more reliable time frame. But if by any chance we can get to around Wednesday and they are still showing the beginning of a cold spell next weekend it might be time to start getting a bit excited.

dairyedge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123147271#Comment_123147271

Sorry I didn’t invite you to south Tipp a few weeks ago when I could not leave my property for 1 solid week and thousands without electricity in the cold with snow and sound of crashing branches/trees. Next you’ll be wishing for another 180km storm because you missed out on being able to survive without power for a week. In 18 there was serious animals welfare issues. Don’t mentioned 2018 to a farmer. Someone that has to go out in it regardless of weather warnings.

pauldry

It may happen but itl be trimmed down to 24 to 36 hours by the time it does. However with all this splitting of Polar Vortexes this week and SSW taking place the ingredients are definitely there.

WolfeEire

can we keep this thread to chart discussion please. There are other threads for general winter discussion.

Overall, we are looking at modest chances of colder weather by mid month. I would put it at around 50% at best. A depression over the Benelux countries is a key factor later next week as is the extent to which the jetstream gets fired up by cold weather in NE USA. The linking up of heights between Scandi and Greenland is the one constant. We need to see how the Atlantic and Benelux depressions interact with the heights. The latest GFS is not hugely supportive of a cold outcome for us in comparison to the other models, but there is much to play out.

Rebelbrowser

looking at the various models this morning they almost all appear to have dropped the idea of the easterly on 18/19 Feb sadly… 6z gfs still rolling out

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

Looked at Boards FI thread. One post in 11 hours told me all. Need U turns from the models today.

Gonzo

I think we all know this easterly ain't happening. Most likely our hunt for snow will roll on to another winter sometime in the future.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123150947#Comment_123150947

that’s the spirit Gonzo, chin up😂

Gonzo

The idea of a properly cold easterly is now on life support with the majority of GFS ensembles now supporting average or mild conditions, most of the cold runs are now gone from the ensembles and heights over southern Europe as always preventing any cold air coming our way. The AO is going deeply negative but it makes a very quick recovery in about 10 days time and the NAO stays neutral to slightly positive suggesting blocking won't be in a position to affect us in any great way. We will probably get a cold spell at some stage in March but too little too late as always.

I lost hope when the GFS turned it's back on the SSW and really cold charts over a week ago and since then we've had mainly the KMA and CFS for comfort while looking at the odd not very well supported cold outlier from the ECM and GFS.

WolfeEire

You are going to see all kinds of flips in modelling over the next day or two.