FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123058886#Comment_123058886

Not surprised given the forecast temps in the Eastern U.S at the moment

-7c maxes in new York Tuesday for example,no prizes for guessing who’s there that day,I’ll report back on the accuracy if my fingers still work?

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123059062#Comment_123059062

3 types for 90% of our weather.

1. Mild, wet, zonal, south-westerly.
2. The washing machine low pressures over us in summer. Thundery downpours. Often a Biscay component.
3. The Bartlett High in Winter.

An honourable mention to the September high pressure. Often found from the 14th to 23rd of the month.

We could do our own Buchanan's cold and warm spells edition!!

TheMilkyPirate

GFS throwing some big dartboard lows at us in FI

WolfeEire

A plunge of deep cold into the eastern half North America will serve to fire up the jetstream, which will act as a conveyor belt for low pressure systems to track toward Ireland and Britain later next week. It remains to be seen if high pressure over Europe will stall or divert these systems from making a direct impact here.

nacho libre

We have not had a conveyor belt of lows in a long time. It wouldn't surprise me if this February is maybe a re run of February 2013. However if we do get another cold spell it just shows we can get one without an SSW and were it all to pan out like February 1991, then it also shows in rare cases we can get them with a positive NAO

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123058137#Comment_123058137

Same here can't even see the centre pressure must be below 930mb edit wow 900mb don't think pressure has EVER been that low near us

roosterman71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123059464#Comment_123059464

For us at the back of the class, what would a low like that mean for us?

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123059613#Comment_123059613

Obliteration! Worse than the night of the big wind 1839. 1 in a million chance.

And snow from the west like The Day After Tomorrow!

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123059613#Comment_123059613

Very windy, raw wind chills, lots of cold rain for coastal areas and much of Leinster and wintry conditions over places well inland and high ground. Something similar to the 24 hour deluge we had over a week ago but far more windy. It's highly unlikely to verify like this tho.

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123059667#Comment_123059667

I think it's this one being referred to. More severe!

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123059685#Comment_123059685

That chart seems very weird, -12 uppers from the Atlantic, is that even possible? Normally we need a long fetch unstable north easterly travelling over mostly land from Siberia direct to us. Despite the above originating from North Canada, there is still 1000s of km of Atlantic to water those uppers well down by the time they reach us.

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123059719#Comment_123059719

It's mad Gonzo! I remember a good Canadian long fetch snowfall in January 1984.. but I imagine -6/7 uppers.

Donegal Ken

That's actually a mental chart, Don't think I have ever seen -12 uppers from that kind of set up. Imagine a low pressure system of that scale hitting there would be some damage done.

Gonzo

I'm really not sure such a chart is possible in terms of 'brutal cold' from the Atlantic, there must be some mistake in that modelling. CFS has something similar, loads of dartboard lows crossing us from the Atlantic but those cold -10 to -20 uppers leaving the Canadian coast water down to -4 to -6 uppers at best over us and that's much more realistic. Rarely have I ever seen colder than -7 uppers from the Atlantic with no cold from eastern Europe bottled in place leading up to it.

pauldry

I think from looking at charts for Jan 24th onwards in the past week or so it's 50/50 that it will be either cold or stormy or both.

It won't be mild and wet or dry and cool. More than likely some form of precipitation.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123059613#Comment_123059613

Well the wind field looks quite widespread and in that model run the isobars are so tightly packed together it looks like just a pure white line especially to the southern flank of the system and as for pressure it's been a while since we've had a system even down to 940mb let alone an extremely rare 900mb system , if that was to verify we'd have probably a nationwide red warning sustained winds of 70 to 80mph (120km/h) and gusts of the region of 120mph (192km/h) we'd have a northwesterly wind making it feel colder and possibly some mountain snow , but still anything can change as its 2 weeks out and because of the states having cold blast and the warmth to the south that's gonna really fire up the jetstream and fire lows at us but one to watch anyway for now

nacho libre

• - 12 uppers and a major storm that would make the previous storm look like a gentle breeze in comparison

I think i have better chance of winning the lottery than a chart like that coming off! In one way I would like to see it,but overall I am glad it won't ever happen.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123060320#Comment_123060320

It's very bizarre I have to say it's unheard of those uppers that low from that direction although there will be extreme arctic airmass over Canada but stretching all the way to us is bonkers to say the least

Robwindstorm

It would be some storm at a very intense center of 900. There was a storm centre of below 930mb a few years ago, north of Scotland, but the windfield was surprisingly scattered and uneventful. The charts are showing some intense storms now again after yesterday's easterly. We might as well be flipping pancakes in FI.

WolfeEire

For absolute FI entertainment purposes, I present perturbation 19

The rest of the members are generally scattered and show a cool outlook generally, the source of which is likely to be a Polar Maritime airmass. The full panel for the same timestamp as above follows

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123060934#Comment_123060934

Omg that would be epic 😍

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123060986#Comment_123060986

That's the dream but unfortunately we probably have a better chance of winning the Euromillions and retiring to some fancy villa in Greece with proper summers guaranteed and snow in the winter more regular than Ireland!

pauldry

The dream is over I fear. Atlantic has decided to blow everything away with cold rain and some wind. Nothing too extreme as that would be too interesting. Just barely normal fare for late January and February. Maybe the cold will come back in later forecasts but not this morning on GFS.

WolfeEire

The general trend beyond this weekend is for high pressure to drift away from Ireland allowing for less settled conditions to take hold into next week. Temperatures will be lower than they are currently, but will remain close to the average for the time of year.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123061603#Comment_123061603

I'd rather that then at least we could go to a cold country in winter ,but let's see what models keeping doing the next few days

WolfeEire

Since 1990, few of the weather charts for January 16th had extensive warm upper air temps for Ireland and Britain as those showing for today (2025). What's notable is the general lack of any deep cold for the islands for this date during the past 35 years.

WolfeEire

The GFS and GEM operational runs illustrate the result of an energised Jetstream that could potentially bring stormy conditions to Ireland later next week. Anticipated deep cold over the eastern half of North America is the main driver of a fired up Jetstream. A lot to resolve in the interim so, for now, these charts are indicative of possible conditions rather than a forecast. Ridging heights over Europe may still prevent any Atlantic systems from directly impacting Ireland and Britain.

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123063059#Comment_123063059

The contrast between this year and last year.. there was a lot of cold to tap into last year. I know this upper air temp profile can change quickly.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123058137#Comment_123058137

GFS with a 917mb storm next Friday to the west of Ireland. Worst out of it stays offshore

Then the 28th

ECM 940mb storm next Friday , stays offshore like gfs

Potential is certainly there for a stormy period late next week.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123065026#Comment_123065026

Perhaps those weak heights to our north may prevent them from directly impact us?

Really don’t want storms. Of course this storm potential is all due to the deep cold outbreak over the US firing up the poxy jet stream. 😤