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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    late Feb into early March 2018 proved that severe cold is just as potent late in the season. My own county Clare had its biggest ever snowfall (46cm) on April 1st 1917. Late winter to early spring snowfall tends to be more disruptive too due to higher moisture content of snow.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire


    I know Wolfe.

    It's just the drip drip in the daytime with stronger sun, even with cloud.

    I prefer dry snow than the heavy wet type. Strangely St. Patrick's Day and the 18th March 2018 brought a drier snow to us than the Beast a fortnight before. Though 'copious amounts', as Siobhán Ryan would say, fell with the BFTE .

    Then with a farming background, a late Spring, like 2013 and 2018 is tough with feeding animals indoor and no growth. The saving grace those years were 2 excellent summers.

    Snow like January and December 2010, January 1987 is my favourite, when temps are well below freezing and the sun is weak.

    Also, personally, I feel I have my quota of snow this year with 8 days in January, and some snow in November, unlike some years.

    'Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio? A nation turns It's lonely eyes to you.'



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    me too, Oiche.

    Sadly, a perfect match of what we want and what we get weatherwise in Ireland is as rare as a politician who can lay straight in the bed 😜

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,311 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    For most of us in North Leinster who havaent seen snow in several years this is the last throw of the coin for this year so let's go and see can we get some white gold before winter ends so throwing all the chips in.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 832 ✭✭✭bazlers


    I guess this kind of answers my question but just the ramifications at ground level. Below is an extract from a post by Catacol on Netweather who I would deem pretty knowledgeable poster over there.

    "The good news in this situation is that the potential timing of an SSW(still a big if)  is in harmony with the pacific impacts or +EAMT and spiking angular momentum, while the MJO also heads back towards the pacific and phase 7. Those impacts would encourage tropospheric ridging to higher latitudes even without an SSW.Put the two together and the impacts of an SSW will be both magnified and faster than might otherwise be the case as a strat split and pacific forcing act in unison" 

    So the timeing of both might expediate its effects. Mights buts and maybes but we still cling on in hope.

    I would like to see one snow flake that doesnt look like it got blow torched on the way down this year. Nothing but slop so far. Fingers crossed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 567 ✭✭✭tiegan


    Any chance someone could translate the above into laymens terms? Would be appreciated! TIA



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Our weather will turn more settled and cooler after Tuesday as high pressure builds to our south and east keeping Atlantic systems at bay.

    There are signs of a strong block to our east and northeast for later next week. However, any easterly or southeasterly component to our weather does not necessarily mean severe cold for Ireland due to the absence of a deep cold airmass to tap into, at least for next weekend.

    There will be excellent drying conditions due to the drier SE/E winds from later Tuesday to Saturday, which will come as good news for gardeners and farmers as soils are currently saturated or waterlogged.

    How cold will it get later next week?

    At present, temperatures will be around average or slightly below for the time of year. Night-time frosts will become more prevalent. Some mixed wintry showers are likely on eastern and southern coasts due to convective activity as colder air passes over the warmer Irish and Celtic seas.

    The operational run (green line) of the GFS model continues to over-emphasise the extent of how cold it will get later next week in comparison to the ensembles mean (white line). It is, however, run at a higher resolution so we may see a movement toward it over the coming days (see ensembles output in first image).

    That said, it will be mid-month and beyond before a deeper source of cold is potentially in place (see side by side graphic).

    Beyond mid-month?

    The Polar Vortex remains strong, which is associated with a northward shifted jet stream that is serving to corral the coldest air over the pole.

    Warming of the polar stratosphere (10km and 50km above the North Pole) is expected to disrupt the Polar Vortex around mid-month. The extent of any PV disruption has yet to be determined but it is likely that cold air will flood south into the mid-latitudes in the second half of February.

    A minor Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is favoured but a major SSW is showing increased support compared to 48 hours ago. The extended range forecast for mean zonal wind in the polar stratosphere is depicted in the below image. Below 0 m/s indicates a reversal of westerly winds over the North Pole i.e. major SSW.

    A major SSW occurred before the Beast From The East in 2018. However, a SSW does not always lead to severe cold in Ireland and Britain. 25 major SSW events during the past 40 years, a relatively small number have led to a BFTE outcome in Ireland. A SSW in January 2019 had little impact on Ireland's weather, which, in fact, remained relatively mild for the rest of the meteorological winter. Another SSW in January 2021 produced cold conditions in Ireland and Britain, but it was much less severe that the 2018 outcome.

    A graphic to explain the Polar Vortex is included in the final image.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 207 ✭✭Ros4Sam24


    @WolfeEire Great post, certainly more interesting weather is likely compared to February’s since 2018



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,696 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    The hp this coming week ,I hope to Christ it won't be another one of those cloudy highs.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,311 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    A decent looking KMA.

    If this verified it would turn the Irish Sea into a snow machine for about 3 days!… as long as we can keep the uppers at -8 or lower.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,311 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GFS 12z is getting close to a potentially very cold spell but the high pressure would need to nudge ever so slightly north to truly bring us into the freezer.

    As for the PV it gets fairly slaughtered.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,311 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Some crazy SSW action in the GFS 12z ensembles.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,233 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    pleased with the way things are progressing, get the building blocks in place first and the rest should follow .. hopefully!

    ott ramping of course but a rare Feb cold spell seems imminent.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,238 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    I hope we do get a easterly but if we do then I’m gonna stay in a hotel for 3 days to experience it but I’d need to know by next week end so I can book lol I’d consider this as monitor mode for now



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,311 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Just going through the GFS 12z ensembles and there is certainly support for a cold spell around mid February, not all the ensemble members are cold but many go for low to mid level cold and at least 8 ensemble members going for long fetch easterlies with an unstable setup. The ECM is generally not as exciting as the GFS output at the moment, certainly not as cold. Interesting model watching over the coming week chasing cold from the east and watching if we'll get an SSW mid February.

    After a mild opening first few days of February we generally look on the cold side up to mid February and possibly beyond.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 154 ✭✭Rain from the West


    At least you get Irish Sea streamers Gonzo! Here in Dundalk, if the wind is anyway North of Easterly, we get clear sunny days due to the Cooley/Mournes snow shield.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,311 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    KMA 12z is a fairly cold one and definitely has snow streamer potential.

    ECM AI 12z has a long fetch easterly from western Russia with makes it all the way to Canada.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 207 ✭✭Ros4Sam24


    Signal for an SSW seems to be dying fairly quickly. Good if you want a warmer March, April. Bad if you want a late winter blast…

    GFS 6z



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,311 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    yep the GFS has had a bit of a wobble on it overnight and same with the deep unstable easterlies.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭esposito


    I couldn’t care less about SSW’s. When do they actually deliver anyway? Feb 2018 is the only one I can think of in recent times.

    For the shorter term, models will always wobble when it comes to cold from the east. It’s rarely straightforward. Let’s see what the 12z output says.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,311 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    What is looking more likely over the coming week to 10 days is temperatures slightly cooler than average and alot of dry weather, perhaps some frosty nights if skies clear at night. Yesterdays 12z had some sensational output for deep easterlies and incredible SSW's, this has been dialed right back overnight. KMA and CFS still going for some very cold February weather at times but we shall see. GFS now more similar to the ECM output which is bland compared to the excitement of yesterdays 12z.

    We could see the excitement from yesterdays 12z output come back but to believe in it, we would need it to come back on the GFS and for all the other models to follow with similar output and that was the big issue with yesterdays output.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,959 ✭✭✭✭fits


    Not too put out. I’ve had enough winter for one winter. And I’m in south east so didn’t get anything too severe between darragh, the snow and Eowyn. Ready here for spring now. I’m sure there’s many more could do with some benign weather for a while.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,306 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    Same. Would be lovely to have some dry, bright, mild weather. Everywhere has that awful green tinge to it from being so wet for so long.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Drier and cooler conditions will become established across Ireland later tomorrow (Tuesday) through the rest of the week thanks to high pressure building to our east and south.

    This evening's rainfall and scattered showers during Tuesday will account for most of the the week's forecast accumulated precipitation, as depicted below. Totals are in mm.

    The GFS ensembles chart for Dublin suggests rain is likely beyond the weekend but totals are not excessive.

    Drying conditions beyond Tuesday will be excellent due to the drier east to southeast sourced airmass.

    📸http://Meteociel.fr & http://wetterzentrale.de

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    The UK Met Office has issued an update on the prospect of cold weather for the UK later this week and into next week.

    Frank Saunders, Met Office Chief Meteorologist, said: “It’s worth being aware that despite a largely pleasant week ahead, there’s a good chance the UK will experience a dip in temperatures at the weekend and into next week. High-pressure is set to move in, bringing along with it easterly winds, low temperatures and an increasing risk of wintry hazards like snow and ice. We’ll know more as the week goes on so it’s worth keeping up-to-date with the forecast in your area.”

    In its long range outlook for the week commencing Monday 10th February, the UKMO says, "...the risk of wintry showers increases with a risk of some sleet or snow falling more widely for a time, but still with some sunshine in between. Temperatures will likely be a few degrees below average with some hard frosts and the wind may make it feel much colder at times."

    For Ireland, the prospects of much colder weather remain uncertain as it remains unclear how far west high pressure will extend.

    More from the UK Met Office here https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/long-range-forecast

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,233 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    I don’t get these kind of posts, fair enough longing for spring, nothing wrong with that but it’s February which is a winter month. It’s a bit like looking forward to autumn on the 3rd of August.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,959 ✭✭✭✭fits


    the point is it’s been a hard winter. Just walked down out farm here. It’s absolutely sodden. We could do with a bit of mild dry weather. Especially the folks in the west without power.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    An impressive looking blocking regime is showing up in the far echelons of the 12z GFS operational run, which would be in keeping with the met office outlook. Heights extending to our NW, N and NE around mid-month would serve to keep Atlantic systems at bay, and result in very cold ESE or E winds being pulled in across Ireland and Britain.Models have been toying with such an eventuality for a number of days. We will see where the operational run sits with the ensembles this evening.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 263 ✭✭Thunder87


    Most people are fed up with the cold, wind and darkness by February and longing for some warmth and brightness, hardly a difficult concept to grasp. Plenty on here are looking forward to winter by October/November or summer in April/May for similar reasons

    No signs of spring on the models at the moment really though if we get any calm sunny days we might start to feel a bit of weak warmth in the sun at least, though the easterly wind will no doubt keep it feeling cold. At least the Atlantic looks to be kept at bay for a while from midweek onwards



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 406 ✭✭mcriot29


    come on them -12 uppers



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 497 ✭✭Mr Bumble


    An easterly dries ground faster than anything else - warm or cold. A week of that coming You'll be grand.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,522 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mod Note: need to stay on topic, FI charts ( T120+ onwards ) only, all other conversation best kept for winter discussion thread.

    Thanks



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 207 ✭✭Ros4Sam24


    Gfs 12z ensembles are very poor for cold. Op run a proper outlier



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,311 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Probably best we forget everything about yesterdays 12z, it's completely in the bin at this stage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 832 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Ive no doubt it will come back. Then pushed out a day, then disappear until it comes back pushed out two days, until it end up in March.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,327 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    nice Easterly on the 18z gfs. Currently skiing surrounded by snow but still excited by this. Should possibly talk to an addiction counsellor…,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,577 ✭✭✭pureza


    nowhere near cold enough in Eastern Europe for an Easterly to work

    Moscow daytime is above freezing atm

    You’d need a NE feed from north of Scandinavia and east of there which is what we had circulating around and towards us in 2010



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Not the worst looking 18z GEFS mean if it's dry and cool weather you are looking for in the medium term.

    A high pressure system anchored over Scandinavia will draw in east-southeasterly winds this weekend into the beginning of the following week. The source of the airmass is not particularly cold.



    We can expect near average or slightly below average daytime temperatures and widespread frost with fog in places at night. There is a chance of mixed wintry precipitation in eastern and southeastern coastal counties of both Ireland and Britain. Heights build over Greenland too which would inhibit the passage of low pressure systems across the Atlantic.

    Overall, the trend continues for cool and dry conditions beyond tomorrow (Tuesday) into the early days of next week.

    Precipitation charts for Dublin up to Feb 12th below.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 207 ✭✭Ros4Sam24


    Yes at the moment, but if we can get some high-latitude blocking cold air can flood mainland Europe. Question is whether it can reach us..

    18z showcases this well. From a complete lack, to an abundance of cold in 4 days. However, it fails to reach us



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,311 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I feel this will go either way, either we will see a continue downgrade and a very insipid brief easterly or the magic could happen and we manage to pull in a very cold unstable airmass, even if just for 2 or 3 days. All it takes is a 24 hour period of -8C uppers or lower with pressure low enough to support Irish Sea snow showers and that will provide more snow than most of Leinster has seen since 2018, particularly the northern half of Leinster which seen barely a snowflake in 6 years.

    But this needs to happen within the next 3 weeks, not sometime in March.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,577 ✭✭✭pureza


    From experience it takes 4 to 5 days for Eastern Europe cold to reach here and that means based on those charts you’d need a perfectly orientated high in Scandy for more than a week with 4 days of that week building that cold into Europe and another 4 bringing it across

    You’d have your Easterly here for the first 4 days alright but not with cold enough air

    That’s the practicality of it,a big ask and why it’s rare



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    The forecasted cold spilling into NE USA is problematic as it will serve to fire up the jetstream. This will negate the ability of heights over Greenland to act as a block to the Atlantic as low pressure undercuts these heights. That said, I think there is a lot to resolve between now and then as to what happens to our northwest. The Scandi heights are also looking stubborn and hard to shift.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,139 ✭✭✭compsys


    Regardless of what happens in the medium term, it looks like the entire country has three days of sun to look forward to in the short term from Wed to Fri.

    Should hopefully put everyone in a nice mood.

    And Western parts could see a nice weekend too.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,311 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I don't see anything particularly cold over the coming 2 weeks. A mostly dry outcome over the next week with temperatures close to average or slightly below. Every time we look where we could possibly get a cold spell going, the cold always spills out of North America just on time to spoil the fun! At least we're not looking at a raging Atlantic, I think we're all blue in the face with the wind and rain/wintry precipitation in places over the past month or so.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,233 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    we may not have a direct easterly all the way from Vladivostok but it can only come progressively colder and not milder over the next two weeks, a long way to go before we see whether we only get temperatures ‘close to average or slightly below’. I’m pleased we aren’t getting a Siberian blast as it always ends in a short cold snap, just a couple of days like Jan 1987 and the ‘BFTE’ , I think the Siberian blast at the end of Dec 1978 ended as quick as it started, again just a couple of days. Give me the gradual build up to a lengthy spell rather than a snap.

    that’ll do me nicely!



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 10,149 Mod ✭✭✭✭squonk


    land in the west of the country is waterlogged at this point. The forecasted run of easterlies will be a good thing.

    Post edited by squonk on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    No Beast, but there will be a Bite in the air

    A spell of colder, drier weather is on the way for the remainder of this week and into the start of next week. Daytime temperatures will be close to normal for the time of year (6-9c) while overnight frost will become a feature of our weather. Winds will veer from southerly during Wednesday to southeasterly during Thursday, which will provide good drying conditions for waterlogged soils (and clothes on the line).

    Much of today's model output suggests that the Atlantic will attempt to reassert its influence on our weather by midweek next week, but there is little indication we will see a rapid return to the very unsettled weather of the past fortnight. Equally, there is no indication that the coming week’s cooler weather will evolve into a much colder spell.

    In essence, northwestern Europe will find itself in a meteorological no man’s land by early next week with Atlantic systems never too far away to our west and heights extending between Greenland and Scandinavia keeping us in a relatively slack southeasterly airflow. The outcome depends on the orientation of these areas of high pressure and the extent to which the Jetstream interacts with expected cold weather over North America.

    From a cold weather perspective in Ireland and Britain, the JMA (animation) provides the most interesting output of the evening model runs as it sets up a possible colder airmass extending over northwest Europe just beyond Day 10. The KMA and CFS produce a similar outcome. The GFS (US) and GEM (Canadian) models show Atlantic systems encroaching from our southwest by or just after mid-week. The ECM (European) looks determined to keep Ireland in a meteorological no man’s land.



    All model output for Day 10 is featured below. The images feature 850hPa (approx 1500m) temperatures, which provide a good indication of likely weather at the surface.


    Something has got to give, and we will know more about next week’s weather prospects in the coming day or two. The Atlantic usually wins the day in this neck of the world, but the outlook can change rapidly in light of the warming going on in the Polar stratosphere as will be the case in the coming days.

    This finely balanced situation is best summed up by the 12Z ECMWF EPS clusters showing a near 50/50 split between a cold SE/E airmass and a more Atlantic-influenced airmass dominating our weather. In forecasting terms, the long-range outlook for now is far from determined. To Beast or not to Beast? That is the question.


    At things stand, there is plenty of drier and brighter weather to come over the 7 days or so.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,238 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    Absolute legend 👏 🙌 thanks for posting this 🙏 💯



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire


    No beast, maybe a terrier from the east or Jack Russell for the next 10 days🤭 A bit of a small bite.

    'Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio? A nation turns It's lonely eyes to you.'



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,311 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Considering the potential a few days ago while the coming week will be nice, dry weather, it's hugely disappointing to see an extremely insipid spell of weather instead of something exciting and the SSW is also a bust now just a bit of a displacement and the PV remains in business. Amazing how this never happens to projected 'warm' winter spells such as what we had over the Christmas, the models nailing the warmth weeks out and not even a hint of a wobble.



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