FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

WolfeEire

GFS going for it again

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123055187#Comment_123055187

You have the year correct but not that flop. It was December of that same year that gave birth to That ECM saga. The chart in question is below.

John.Icy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123055049#Comment_123055049

A good example I thought of too. But more so the bigger issue was we couldn't get an undercut to prop up the easterly, given how far east the high was. If the Atlantic undercut on the below, my word - there was severe severe cold out East. Alas we just ended up in no mans land in the arm of WAA.

In these cases, you probably want the Atlantic to push even further east because a strong block will disrupt it SE and lock in the cold. The below was mere days before BFTE 2018…if you looked at this in isolation would you have thought anything worthwhile was going to follow, with that huge lobe of vortex over Canada/Greenland? 2018 had the SSW to aid chances of course so a different thing. But it's not beyond the realms of possibility that we get some sort of weak split in the vortex and a big high to the NE can eventually beat back the lobe to our NW and an LP from it undercuts and causes a cold easterly.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123055187#Comment_123055187

Nah that was December 2012. 12z, 5th December to be exact. Complete bust. I bought into that at the time being a young lad, but looking back at 'that ECM', it was a couple of amazing charts in FI for a single suite basically. The roll backs started the next run! Netweather held it up as some promised thing that it just never was for some reason. EDIT: Sryan beat me to it!

Kermit.de.frog

If we start to see the ECM converge on a similar trajectory with a Scandi high of some strength like the GFS around day 7 or 8 it would be time to take interest but with GFS on it's own and a myriad of it's own ensemble outcomes we can't take anything seriously yet. Even if the ECM did come on board it's a delicate evolution on the GFS anyway so it would be some days before there'd be real confidence.

Still it's positive to see something interesting at least.

The 12z ECM is a step in the right direction though.

.Donegal.

Day 10 before the cold air starts making inroads

mcriot29

I expect Donegal weather Chanel hype man to start posting about a beast on the way soon 🤫

Donegal Ken

And why would you think that?

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123055838#Comment_123055838

Mod Note: mcriot29 please stay on topic , no need for that in this forum.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123055806#Comment_123055806

That were it to come to pass would be interesting as its more ESE over Ireland with a gigantic water fetch for its cold sourced air from the north of Cornwall to Louth,probably 200 miles?

WolfeEire

Pub run goes for a screaming easterly. The 12z ensembles had little support for such an outcome. Let's see what the 18z show.

Thunder87

Yep 18Z GFS going for a full blown easterly with undercutting lows!

No definite pattern emerging so far but there's definitely some signal of pressure building towards our north east driving an easterly across Europe

TheMilkyPirate

Well if that 18z comes off this place will go into meltdown

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123057013#Comment_123057013

Remaining very cautious about this, we have along way to go, but it's about time we hit the jackpot because we've been so long waiting!

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123056989#Comment_123056989

The potential for a cold easterly is not without support in the GEFS ensembles, but it remains an unlikely outcome. The operational output as depicted in my quoted post is out of sync with the majority of ensemble members.

Robwindstorm

Wow, I know it's FI, but that is some flip in the charts in one day. The ECM is slowly starting to come on board too.

Gonzo

If that 18z was to verify exactly as is, unfortunately the uppers aren't low enough once again for much of Leinster, similar to the last cold spell, similar uppers maybe a tad colder and winds in off the Irish sea which would most likely result in sleety rain. The 18z isn't going to verify as is so what i'd like to see is upgrades over the next week, but not all at once, but increasing cold uppers and get that high a bit further north to let colder uppers reach us. What I really want to see is the -10 uppers crossing the country to be absolutely certain.

It's very early days and we need more GFS members to fall in line first and then the other models to follow suit, one by one. At least we're back looking at potentially cold and wintry charts, a break from the Atlantic dominated blow torch southwesterly charts that have dominated much of this winter so far.

Thunder87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123057129#Comment_123057129

The air would be nowhere near as modified by the Atlantic coming from the east so not really comparable to low pressure from the NW, -6 to -8C would be plenty cold.

Main issue would be high pressure suppressing any shower activity, though 500hPa heights are relatively low so probably still enough instability for streamers to get going

nacho libre

The op can sometimes lead the way against the ensembles. However, I still think we will be looking on enviously as the continent goes into the freezer while we remain under Atlantic influence

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123057301#Comment_123057301

Unfortunately that's the way the majority of easterlies happen, we miss out and the cold dives south-east clipping south east UK.

.Donegal.

From Yesterday evenings GEF perb 22. You can see wacky bleep on them but that’s the deepest low I have ever seen for us from any perturbation before

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123058137#Comment_123058137

First time I have ever seen a -12 850 modelled to hit us from the west!

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123058146#Comment_123058146

Aye but it’s a perturbation

If we were to cherrypick those all the time,the country would be regularly flattened by wind snow and ice,we’d all be struck by lightning prior to being burned alive by the sun in 40c plus temperatures mercifully struck down by the heat before the freezing snow hurricanes of winter

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123058260#Comment_123058260

Oh absolutely and I don't expect it to come close to happening, at the same time I have never seen it modelled before in a perturbation, op, control or otherwise.

WolfeEire

There is minimal support for an easterly as of today. A greater Atlantic inluence on our weather will become established later on Saturday. Therafter, there will be rain at times and temperatures will drop closer to average for the time of year.

Gonzo

maybe support might come back early in February. currently the NAO and AO are set to remain positive for the rest of January with only minor support for northern blocking hence a mostly mild and Atlantic dominated scene until the beginning of February the most likely outcome.

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

This winter has the feel of 1991. Early January snow. Mild 3 weeks. Early February easterly.

Robwindstorm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123058137#Comment_123058137

Well holy God, Ireland would be left with a lunar landscape after that passed through.

WolfeEire

Looking ahead to next week and Ireland will be staring down the Atlantic Washing Machine as deep areas of low pressure approach our shores. Ridging heights in Europe may very well hold off the systems from making a direct impact.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123058886#Comment_123058886

Meanwhile, this afternoon's ICON butts in to sing:
"And then I go and spoil it all
By saying somethin' stupid like, "EASTERLY"

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123058886#Comment_123058886

The Washing Machine is usually an Irish summer specialty, hopefully less washing machine this summer if we can get it out of the way now or in the Spring.