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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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Comments

  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 10,149 Mod ✭✭✭✭squonk


    Maybe but after some very frosty weather after Christmas and washout conditions over the Jay while and a week without power, I’m personally very happy for a calm week without much going on. Snow on top of lines that are likely “for now” repairs will only mean more power outages. People need a break and the ground definitely needs a chance to dry out so I can’t agree with you.

    Post edited by squonk on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 390 ✭✭almostthere12


    Well the 0z ECM is definitely eye candy in FI, could it be a new trend? Unfortunately it is an outlier on the ensembles.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 390 ✭✭almostthere12


    Also the GEM has consistently been giving us snow for next Tuesday as it develops a unstable cold pool which is a lot stronger than the other models.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,577 ✭✭✭pureza


    At 1035mb pressure,there wouldn’t be much if any precipitation

    Secondly a lot of the surface air in the above is sourced in SE Europe and the Adriatic

    Even Denmark further north has max temps of 4c forecast next week

    No hope here,all we will import is smog haze I think on that



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    LONG RANGE

    There has been much talk over the past week about potential snow and severe cold heading our way. Analysis of the US weather model (GFS) suggests such an outcome is unlikely, at least up to mid-month.

    Forecasting becomes less reliable beyond the 3-5 day window, but trends can be picked up when cross checking successive runs of weather models.

    In a review of the last 5 runs of the GFS using the Midlands on midday, Monday February 17th as the source point, our mid-month weather looks like bringing average temperatures for the time of year (5-8c) and relatively low rainfall totals.

    Ireland will find itself on the boundary between Atlantic low-pressure systems and high pressure to our northeast, a meteorological no man’s land that would produce rather benign conditions overall. Any rainfall would likely be restricted to the western half of Ireland with drier conditions further east.

    The good news is that this week’s spell of weather will allow for good drying conditions which should continue for much of Ireland into much of the following week. The threat of Atlantic storms tracking across Ireland over the next fortnight is presently low as high pressure inhibits their progress eastward (see GFS panels below for February 17th).

    The above source point of 17th February will be updated accordingly in the coming days to see if there is a trend towards a change to the outlook.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 390 ✭✭almostthere12


    I was wondering what you were on about but my bad I posted the wrong chart, correct one below…….Denmark would not be 4C this time!! 😉



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Largely dry and settled with cold nights is the main theme of our weather for the next 7 days at least. High pressure to our east is expected to drift as we move beyond the weekend.It may become more unsettled after mid-week next week, particularly in the western half of Ireland. The red line for the relevant graphs below represents the mean (average) of all 32 members of the GFS weather model.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭esposito


    Nothing really exciting from the models. Colder, good sunshine and great drying so many on here will be pleased and that’s understandable after the recent storm.

    However it would be nice to see proper cold from the east reach our shores at some stage in February with snow showers affecting the snow starved east coast. A ‘son of the beast’ like 17th/ 18th March 2018 would do. Knowing our luck that will probably happen in a months time when most of us won’t want it!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 390 ✭✭almostthere12


    To look further ahead it still does look like it is all to play for in mid to late February with a wide range of options being thrown out by the models. Of course it is all FI but very interesting watching to see how it will all pan out. All models are in general agreement up to the middle of next week however then the differences start to emerge.

    As posted this morning the 0z ECM had the holy grail but was very much an outlier, and the 12z has us stuck in a no man's land but with heights still very far north. The GFS on the other hand wants to bring the Atlantic back as it collapses the northern high fairly quickly at the end of next week.

    Unfortunately I think the GFS will probably be right but when there are heights moving that far north who knows what will happen.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    the KMA is fighting the good fight still

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Tonight's operational run of the GFS has a bullseye low pressure system (951hPa) over Ireland in 13 days from now, which would really announce the return of the Atlantic in this neck of the woods. However, the model's 31 other members eo not follow suit, thereby leaving the operational run without any support for such an outcome.

    "Go Away. Rain, rain, go away. Come again another d̶a̶y̶ month."

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire


    Whatever about a BFTE, I hope we don't get any more bad storms this season.

    'Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio? A nation turns It's lonely eyes to you.'



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    A cold whopper of a Gem. The gfs has us in the Atlantic sink

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭esposito


    UKMO looks promising too.

    ECM meh.

    It would be great to wake up some morning with ALL the major models in agreement that a frigid easterly is on its way to our shores. They love to keep us guessing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    kma still showing. I'll do a breakdown on gfs shortly and will post

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 570 ✭✭✭Robwindstorm


    Alex Deakin from UK Met has a great explanation of variables from the source of the easterly fetch on the 10 day outlook. Great watch (05/02/25)



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,311 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    There's still the possibility that we could get a half decent easterly before the end of winter but it's still all looking a bit flimsy and we need all models singing from the same easterly hymn sheet. We need some big upgrades in the models over the next few days to bring joy back to us in the snow starved east, particularly from the GFS and ECM.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    UKMO shifts towards reinforcing the block

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    A shift away from the Atlantic with better heights in the GEFS mean. I see the USA weather community getting very upset that their cold chances are slipping. When they get excited about snow opportunities, it usually precipitates an Atlantic onslaught for us. Who knows. All is far from determined as of now. 50/50

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 390 ✭✭almostthere12


    That’s very interesting about the US, what website or forum do you go to to see what they’re saying across the pond Wolf?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Follow US wx accounts on Twitter. They sound like us today when we see things going belly up

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 390 ✭✭almostthere12


    Thanks, hopefully we’ll see the Atlantic back off a bit more now, whether that gives the cold from the east a chance to dig in is another thing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    There has been a shift toward sustaining the current dry spell into the middle of next week and beyond in this evening's weather model output. Prospects of something a little colder later next week into the following week have also increased but the likelihood of such an outcome remains around 50/50. The other possible outcome brings cloudier conditions with rain at times, particularly to the western half of Ireland.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,311 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I didn't think people in the United States would get upset over snow chances slipping since they get massive snow falls several times every winter, far more often than anywhere in Europe outside of Scandinavia perhaps. It would be like us getting upset because we don't get enough cloud, wind and rain in this country from the Atlantic!.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,696 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Hope that at least the wind and rain stays away for as long as possible for what remains of this winter......



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,099 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    The US is a massive country. There are many parts of the US that get much less snow than us.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 207 ✭✭Ros4Sam24


    But nearly everywhere in the US gets better summers than us, because of the fe**in Atlantic!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    The KMA is still on the nose candy

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,311 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    KMA has never backed down from a cold spell unlike most of the other models. CFS also for the most part been on the nose candy for a while now.

    Until the GFS, GEM, ECM and Icon fall in line i'm not taking these cold charts in anyway seriously, but at least proper cold is still on the table just about. I'd like to see upgrades in the models beginning tomorrow.

    GFS and ECM having none of the cold really, a 7 to 10 days of dry coolish weather and then the Atlantic comes back. However alot can change between now and February 15th for better or for worse.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 390 ✭✭almostthere12


    It ain’t called the pub run for nothing, the gfs 18z comes up with the goods, it will be interesting to see where it sits in the ensembles!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 742 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    It is quite frustrating though, even in 2 days the GFS has been showing roughly -5/-6 uppers with precipitation for the E coast, but it just isn't cold enough, it'll mostly be sleety rain and by the looks of the temperatures associated with the uppers, it seems to be a similar situation to Britain with some low-lying mild sector making it too warm to fall as snow…

    Lets hope the models pull through in the coming week, they seem to be having a real issue with the LP shooting out from the Atlantic. Very weird that the CFS / KMA etc all show this continuing, while the GFS and ECM either fail, or their OP run is an insane outlier. We've had several extreme outlier OP runs lately, very strange.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    My best guess as to why models are jumpy is the blocking going on in the northeast Pacific and North American northwest. Heights are a lot more extensive than modelled a few days ago and the data from the downstream effect of this may just be feeding into models. Looking at the ensembles and there is an 18c swing in the members for 8 days time. Some sub -10c 850s in there.

    ps….ensembles not following the cold op and control runs on gfs. Onwards to tomorrow

    Post edited by WolfeEire on

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,311 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The 18z is an outlier towards the end of it's run.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 390 ✭✭almostthere12


    Another very nice gfs run this morning but like the 18z it is at the bottom of the ensembles.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,577 ✭✭✭pureza


    I think it’s inevitable isn’t it,no matter what specifics are in FI that if that high sticks around or meanders a bit more north than south,that an injection of polar air will come,the longer it stays,the bigger the likelihood




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    agree. A lot of sub minus 10c members appearing too which shows the potential.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,099 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Seems like there's been quite a few OP runs with little to no support from their ensembles the last week or so, any particular reason? Would it be due to the warming.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,311 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    It's annoying, majority of the GFS operational runs over the past few days have been very much cold outliers with very little support. The 6z rolling out now and it looks to be closer to a mild outlier. Majority of GFS members going for average temperatures mid month, nothing too mild or cold.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Analysis of the past 13 runs of the GEFS for a Midlands location at midday on Monday 17th February indicates the model is leaning toward average or slightly below temperatures and relatively settled/dry conditions, at least for the Midlands.

    Some of the less-observed models (KMA, CFS) are pushing for a colder spell of weather, while the the GFS position is shared by the main models (ECM, GEM).




    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭esposito


    The models are such a head wreck.

    I fear we’ll just end up in no man’s land (coldish temps but not cold enough for snow) despite the northern blocking. We need a big slice of luck for proper cold to come our way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire


    February is such a short little month too. A quarter of it over now.

    By about the 12-14 February you'd like something solid to show.

    I've a feeling around the 22nd we'll have signs of cold at month's end. The first week of March will bring snow to some. That week is often a cold wintry time for many years now.

    'Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio? A nation turns It's lonely eyes to you.'



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Mixed operational runs this afternoon. Big spread in the senembles. A 20c spread in 850s for this day week.

    It's at this point the ECM needs to stand up and say "right, boys. This is how you do it"

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,577 ✭✭✭pureza


    The gefs control run from Day 8 shows how peachy the direction of travel slowly appears to be turning ,a 2010esque/2018esque feed If ever I saw one approaching?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 832 ✭✭✭bazlers




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    It's at this point the ECM has stood up and said "right, boys. This is how you do it"

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 832 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Its a thing of beauty Wolfe, seen plenty of day 15 beauts though to turn to Shrek! A nation holds its breath!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire


    Good to see. You'd hope it happens in that time frame. I know 2018 was a week to 10 days later. But the earlier the better if you're looking for lying snow.

    The sheer volume in 2018 meant plenty of lying snow. But if say Gonzo's area got 3 inches of snow. It has a much better chance of staying on the ground longer at 17 February than a fortnight later at 3 March. You basically gain an hour of daylight in a fortnight. The sun angle is 25° on 17 February. The sun has climbed to 30° by 3rd March. It's so much stronger.

    'Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio? A nation turns It's lonely eyes to you.'



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,744 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    ECM decaying front approaching from the west stalls over Connacht and disintegrates delivers a dusting for there which melts fairly quick next Friday. Apart from that a dusting for Antrim.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,744 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    JMA has a belter of an evolution out in cuckoo land.



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