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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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Some murmurings of a cold easterly wind becoming established over Ireland and Britain by the turn of the month and into early February 🧊❄️.
Presently, there is minimal support for a 'Beast from the East' type scenario over the next 10-14 days as a result of a Scandinavian high pressure system pulling in cold air from the continent.
There will be a E-SE component to our weather as high pressure nudges north during midweek and eventually settles to the southeast of Britain by the weekend. Drier, cooler and brighter conditions are expected from midweek up to Sunday-Monday (2-3 Feb).
Thereafter looks more uncertain as the Atlantic attempts to reassert itself. The general consensus is that it will succeed. The below output from the US GFS model illustrates the anticipated rise in high pressure, and the brief cool down and drier spell from midweek to about Sunday. The red line signifies the average of all 30 perturbation (members) of the model.
📸Meteociel
Of note in the pressure graph is the significant pressure drop associated with tomorrow's low pressure system (Storm Herminia) pushing east across Ireland and Britain.
The model suggests that high pressure will be located close to Ireland, but that the Atlantic will be right on our doorstep by the end of next week.
The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) Index is a useful barometer for assessing how active the Atlantic is. It is forecasted to remain in high positive territory through the beginning of February which is a good indicator that a cold easterly setup in Ireland is highly unlikely to materialise. A small number easterly setups have developed in a positive NAO scenario down through the decades, but such an occurrence is rare.
📸NOAA
Put your money on the 'Pest from the West' and Ireland and Britain slowly returning to an Atlantic zonal setup after a brief lull. The below GFS panel featuring upper air temps (approx 1500m) for 10 days time is overwhelmingly backing such a scenario. Temperatures at that altitude are a good indicator of the likely weather to be expected at ground level.
📸Meteociel
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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The weather outlook for Ireland for the next 12 to 16 days is mixed, but overall rainfall totals will be lower than average.
High pressure will be located close to Ireland for the duration of the outlook period and will inhibit Atlantic lows from impacting our weather to the same extent as has been experienced in the past week.
Parts of the northwest and north will experience moderate to strong winds at times, however, as high pressure edges a little further south and east. Rainfall totals will be highest in these areas while the lower totals will be towards the southeast of Ireland.
Temperatures will be around average or slightly above average for the time of year. Overnight temperatures will dip into low single figures away from the north and west.
Sunny conditions can be expected in all locations at times, particularly those located away from the west and northwest.
The precipitation charts indicate rainfall will affect Ireland tomorrow (Thursday) night, Saturday night into Sunday morning and Monday night into Tuesday morning. Further rainfall is expected by the end of next week as high pressure weakens allowing Atlantic systems to push in. Totals are expected to remain low overall, however.
The below ECMWF ensembles forecast features the output of 50 perturbations (members). Each perturbation produces a separate forecast to address underlying uncertainties in the input data. The midlands region of Ireland has been selected in the below output from the overnight run of the weather model. The forecast of relatively low rainfall totals is confirmed here.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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GFS 06z goes for a major SSW and PV split. This would be in a position to opening the floodgates down the line for a polar continental easterly flow. Just one run though. See if it lasts to subsequent runs or a trend develops and I'm sure there's a lot of stratospheric fatigue after hearing it so much this decade.
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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The GFS SSW on this mornings models looks fairly impressive but will it happen? Could very well be gone on the 12z but we shall see.
Game over for the PV on the 6z but do i believe it? If this verified it's probably too late to impact the remainder of February and would have impacts sometime in March or April leading to a possibly very cold start to Spring. This is the sort of thing I want to see end of December or early January but it's always too late.
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GFS 12z attempts to split with clear sign of the polar vortex splitting into two lobes but it doesn't quite get there with no secondary ridge to fully split it apart inbetween. As a result, it doesn't reverse but still a significant warming. ECM 12z shows a more defined split with the secondary ridge.
Anomalies can be deceiving - the GFS equivalent would make you believe it's a full on split but when you look at the 10mb winds and heights, it's not. The ECM is a more classic split signature.
Two weeks away so no doubt there will be changes and changes. Keeping an eye on it.
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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I am writing this for the benefit of Boardsies who may nout understand the background to all of the above. Apologies to the absolute experts on the issue if any of my explanation is incorrect.
You may hear the terms Polar Vortex (PV), PV split and Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) mentioned over the coming days in relation to goings on in the stratosphere above the North Pole. You will also come across online news articles and Twitter posts confidently suggesting stating that the 'B***t from the East' is imminent.In short, the BFTE is not imminent, but weather models are hinting that the building blocks that produce such an outcome could materialise in around 2 weeks days from now with a potential cold spell impacting somewhere in the mid-latitudes, which includes Ireland, in early March.
It really is a case of ‘ifs, buts and maybes’ this far out.
To Beast or not to Beast? That is the question.
About those building blocks.
The PV is a band of strong westerly winds that forms in the stratosphere between about 10km and 50km miles above the North Pole every winter.
When the vortex weakens, shifts, or splits, the polar jet stream often becomes extremely wavy, allowing warm air to flood into the Arctic and polar air to flood south.
See below.
A SSW refers to a swift jump in polar stratospheric temperatures. The warming is preceded by a slowing then reversal of the westerly winds in PV.
Such disruptions of the PV can lead to extreme cold air outbreaks in the mid-latitudes, in place like Eurasia, Europe and the United States. It should be noted that despite there being an estimated 25 major SSW events during the past 40 years, a relatively small number have led to a BFTE outcome in Ireland.
For example, a major SSW around February 10th, 2018, produced the infamous Beast From The East of late February and early March that year. A SSW in January 2019 had little impact on Ireland's weather, which, in fact, remained relatively mild for the rest of the meteorological winter. Another SSW in January 2021 produced cold conditions in Ireland and Britain, but it was much less severe that the 2018 outcome.
Back to what is happening in winter 2024-25 and, more importantly, between 10km and 50km above the North Pole. Right now, the PV is rather stable but models like the ECMWF and GFS indicate that a warming of the stratosphere will commence later next week and just about pull off a PV split in approximately two weeks, sending two lobes of cold air south into the mid latitudes. There is limited support for a Major SSW but growing support for a minor SSW. See animation below.
The ECMWF is more resolute on producing a definitive PV split as the image posted by @sryanbruen shows.
This is one to watch and the outcome is far from certain. Models struggle with forecasts beyond 3-5 days out, never mind two weeks out. Furthermore, should the ECMWF output verify in two weeks, it will take another 2.5 to 3 weeks for the impact of PV split and any accompanying SSW to be felt in the mid-latitudes.
Stories about an imminent ‘Beast From The East just like 2018’ will be pushed at you over the coming days by your neighbours and friends who will parrot what they have read on social media or elsewhere online. The truth is that there is a small possibility of such an outcome in early March (there goes spring if it comes off). However, there is far more unknowns than knowns due to the uncertainties surrounding long range forecasting.
BFTE talk is akin to the Chinese whispers surrounding your local sports team who are supposedly “flying it in training”. We all need to wait and see for ourselves should Championship Day (SSW / PV split) eventually come around.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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The overnight run of the GFS model shows a warming of the stratosphere above the North Pole leading to Polar Vortex split, not a textbook split but one none the same as two lobes of cold air descend south into the mid latitudes. See quoted post for context and what it could mean for our weather in 4-5 weeks.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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More of a textbook/classic Polar Vortex split on the 06z run of the GFS model. Polar stratospheric warming over the North Pole squeezes the vortex and sends two lobes of cold air flooding south into the mid-latitudes. These charts are in the far echelons of the model run, but there is trend there for there to be 'all change at the top'.
On a separate note and the topic of spring as mentioned above, for farmers it has been a difficult winter with drying opportunities limited across the country. The past week alone has seen 140% to 320% of the average rainfall amounts recorded, according to Met Éireann in its latest farming commentary.
Valentia in Kerry has recorded 194.4mm in the month up to yesterday. The monthly average here is 173.8mm. The Midlands and some parts of the northwest have recorded lower than average rainfall totals for the month to date. However, all moderately and well drained soils are saturated across the country, while poorly drained soils are close to waterlogged.
There will be moderate drying conditions during the rest of today and for much of Sunday, as well as late Tuesday morning through Thursday.
Winds will be largely variable between W and S, apart from Thursday next week when easterly to southeasterly winds will provide more favourable drying conditions. Rainfall is expected during Saturday, Monday and on a more regular basis beyond Thursday of next week.
The long term outlook remains uncertain, but a return to a more Atlantic dominated setup for the second week of February is favoured at present.www.x.com/wolfeeire
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WolfeEire is about bang on, the central date (when it reverses to easterly at 60N 10hPa) was the 12th February. Easterly winds started becoming influential 10 days later on the 22nd. The building blocks kept developing to the northeast eventually resulting in a complete flip of the normal zonal flow and a retrograding high pressure from the Urals all the way to Canada through the first week of March. The severe cold air started flirting the east coast on the 26th February with the evening of the 27th showing the first significant snow showers.
This Northern Annular Mode (which is another name for the Arctic Oscillation) cross section illustrates nicely the quick propagation of the February 2018 major SSW to the lower stratosphere and the troposphere. It was the holy grail.
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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Hints of a not so beasterly easterly on the horizon.
Tonight's ECM (European model) operational run shows an easterly wind becoming established over Ireland by the end of next weekend. However, the airmass does not tap into a deep cold source i.e. there is a distinct absence of entrenched cold over the continent.
In such a setup, we could expect slightly below daytime temperatures for the time of year and frost at night. It would be largely dry away from the east and south coasts where convective activity could develop as cold air passes over the warmer Irish and Celtic seas and produce mixed wintry showers.
The GFS (US model) shows something similar with a Scandinavian blocking high, but its' ensembles only show slight to moderate support for such an outcome. The GEM (Canadian model) and UKMO also show heights over Scandinavia, but easterly winds do not progress further west than Britain.
Plenty of interesting prospects for out likely weather at the end of next week into the following week, particularly in light of a forecast polar stratospheric warming. For more, see below.www.x.com/wolfeeire
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A good marker to see if the Easterly cold becomes a trend. Out in FI, ECM IFS and AIFS and GFS showing cold weather from the East moving across Europe towards us. GEM and ACCESS G leaning towards cold just past +240hrs. Could we be on to an Easterly setting in? Are we seeing the early signs of the effects of a stratospheric warming ??
The Atlantic quieter as we move into next week as blocking becomes established over Europe and Scandinavia , precipitation charts quieten down from around midweek showing less rainfall and cooler airmass, some cold charts there out near + 200 to 240hrs and beyond. Will see.
Link on NOAA's Bluesky account with good explainer about disruptions of the polar vortex.
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While Gfs 18z did not really produce interest early in the run, a massive warming of the stratosphere and a split of the PV lobes is produced later on. A quick response by the NWP modelling and an interesting winter chart appears. Eyes are peeled
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CFS is cold for February and brutal cold at times in March. This would be a rather chilly Saint Patricks Day, 0% of it being actually this cold on the day but plenty of cold to come over the next 2 months if the CFS is right.
While the above is not impossible to achieve it shows the power of a direct hit long fetch easterly from Siberia in mid March.
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Very cold weather is not expected in Ireland over next 10 to 14 days, although the prospects of a cold spell at the turn of the month remain open due to a forecast polar stratospheric warming.
Stormy conditions like those experienced during January are highly unlikely as the below pressure chart indicates, while rainfall amounts and temperatures will remain around average for the time of year.
A spell of rain during today and on Monday will be followed by dry conditions for most of Ireland next week as high pressure rebuilds to the east and south of Ireland, which will serve to keep Atlantic systems at bay. It will be driest away from western and northwestern coastal counties. See precipitation animation below.
Some frosty nights can be expected in sheltered inland locations with daytime temperatures hovering around between 7c and 11c, mildest in the west.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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Another absolutely classic SSW run on todays GFS 12z.
This is perhaps even better than last nights pub run! This is basically a 70C to 80C rise in temperature over the pole!. Exciting times ahead possibly!
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Next weekend is set to be largely dry with temperatures at or, perhaps, slightly below average levels for the time of year.
Widespread overnight frost with fog in places will become a feature of our weather in the second half of the week owing to generally slacker winds and high pressure anchored to our east and south.
With the exception of Monday night and Wednesday night, winds will be generally light to gentle.Atlantic coastal counties will experience the highest precipitation totals, most of which will come from Sunday and Monday night/Tuesday morning's frontal systems.
Totals will be much lower further east over the next week.The below chart shows some of the main weather models for Saturday afternoon. The other graphs show the GFS 12z ensembles for precipitation and air temps. the white line signifies the average (mean) of all 30 members of the model. The green line is what was depicted on the operational run.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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