FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123036732#Comment_123036732

Hopefully if we're to get one more cold spell this winter that it's a proper easterly. We've had quite a few northerlies over the past 6 years and not a sniff of an easterly which is why much of Leinster is still starving for snow after years of nothing.

Robwindstorm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123036746#Comment_123036746

Gonzo, your a 'Snow Vampire '

Thunder87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123036746#Comment_123036746

I've never really gotten the fuss with easterlies, we've had a handful of them over the past 20 years and they never amounted to anything particularly interesting or memorable. Usually means high pressure just to our north which suppresses shower activity to nothing more than coastal flurries (March 2013 being the main example).

A low pressure dominated north easterly sourced from Scandinavia/Svalbard is more the holy grail for the east coast I'd say.

True arctic northerlies are also extremely rare, I don't think we've had one since 2010 and before then it was Dec 2000 and 1995. We're overdue one if anything

WolfeEire

From this weekend, our weather will enter an anticylonic pattern giving much of Ireland largely dry conditions and above average temperatures. Quite cloudy at times with any precip most likely in the northwest. It will become more unsettled with strong SW to W winds at times in about 10 days. Everything points to that right now.

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123037215#Comment_123037215

I take it you don't live in the East?

Thunder87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123037321#Comment_123037321

I do these days but spent most of my life in the NW where easterlies just mean cold and clear. I guess I'm discounting 2018, though that was caused by an Atlantic storm from the SW clashing with the cold rather than being snow actually sourced from the easterly, and to be fair I'd gladly take something like that again!

piplip87

Im in Cavan. We were buried in snow from the Easterly before Emma made an appearance. I think it was the perfect mix.

giveitholly

........

WolfeEire

"Hello darkness, my old friend"

Elmer Blooker

on your marks … get set .. GO!

better than looking at the slug for the rest of the month at least!

WolfeEire

From next weekend onward, temperatures look like dipping closer to the average for the time of year while it will become a little more unsettled as high pressure shifts away from Ireland. A zonal Atlantic flow is favoured for the following week.

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123042363#Comment_123042363

It maybe zonal but it wont be a train of lows

Wouldnt take much for favorable setup for another cold intrusion down the line. I hope. Im sure folks further west and south dont.

Ros4Sam24

ECM 12z FI 😵

pauldry

Ya I'd be fairly confident we will see another (maybe brief) cold spell last week of January. Though think anything like the past 7 days is unlikely to be repeated this Winter at least.

WolfeEire

Increasing signs that Atlantic systems may approach our shores next weekend as high pressure weakens to our east. This means more unsettled conditions with rain and stronger winds. Temperatures will remain close to average for the time of year.ICON, GFS and GEM 12z output below.

WolfeEire

After a largely dry week next week, it will become unsettled and windy from about 7-8 days time as high pressure retreats east (red arrow) and Atlantic systems push in. ECMWF precipitation charts for the next two weeks are marked on the bottom line. Air temps are on the top line.

ClimateObserver

The big two models are showing plenty of wet weather from next Friday/Saturday onwards once the high over NW France retreats. However, it is FI, so lets hope they're over-cooking the rainfall totals from January 18th to 26th.

The GFS has toned down the 'mild' from the SW flow this coming week, however the ECM is intent on seeing us get into the 13c to 14c range.

Let's hope the GFS is closer to what happens.

Gonzo

The ECM long term models are very grim, if they verify Winter is over and we are into a very mild and wet Atlantic onslaught from a weeks time all through February. Of course the ECM long range model cannot be relied upon much like the CFS Long range model. However it is likely that most of the rest of January is a completely and totally write off for winter weather but hopefully we will start to see good charts in about 2 weeks time.

Mars Bar

Noo 😩

I arrive on the 19th and fly out again on the 24th

Would love some dry days so we can go places

Rebelbrowser

if you like driving sleet then the last week of the 6z gfs is golden for you….

.Donegal.

Years away but nothing else happening

Gonzo

Trend seems to be a much more unsettled final 10 days to January and perhaps not as overly mild as the coming week.

rooney30

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123047223#Comment_123047223

so you mean there’s a chance ??

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123047242#Comment_123047242

Possibly final days of January or early February a small chance but alot needs to happen first.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123047252#Comment_123047252

I think it was Joanna said day 10 charts aren’t worth the crayons they’re written with,so I’d say every chance

Not until the North American cold has been washed out of the system though and that would indeed take 2 weeks unless it reloads

Unfortunately as the jet stream is usually west to East and North America is a giant land mass bordering on the warmer Atlantic,cold shotssouth there usually do get caught up in the jet stream firing rainy cold lows our way

That’s climate for you

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123047317#Comment_123047317

The NAO/AO is forecasted to be fairly positive for the remainder of January so northern blocking looks off the table. The most likely scenario over the next 2 to 3 weeks is a dry and very mild week to come followed by an increasingly unsettled scene and remaining on the mild side with Atlantic domination but hopefully we will see signs of a change as we push through the final week of January. No signs of an SSW any time soon so for me that ship is beginning to sale with the PV still in business as we enter February.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123048185#Comment_123048185

I am open to correction but I don’t think there was northern blocking in the February ‘91 spell

The NAO is just a number reflecting the contrast between low pressure towards Greenland and the pole and high pressure towards the Azores,it’s positive under normal climatic conditions and negative when that’s inclined to reverse

When you see it trending one way or the other it’s just shorthand for those highs and lows being in their usual or opposite positions really as reflected in FI

That part isn’t super cast on stone in terms of being better to predict but it’s kind of

Reversal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123048185#Comment_123048185

Those NAO/AO plots are just current GEFS and ENS output though? They're just another way of looking at current output, rather than leading or forecasting future modelling.

Id say those plots will take a dip this evening. Few models showing tentative signs of the euro and Alaskan high building towards the pole. Not leading to anything to exciting here in the output, but you never know.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123048847#Comment_123048847

Yes, the February 1991 cold spell happened with a positive NAO and in the absence of northern blocking. A situation like that is unfortunately as rare as hens teeth. The long range models point to a mild Feburary- but as we have seen with long range models in recent times they can be wrong, so posters should not be absolute about ruling out colder weather in February.

Gonzo

The ECM Long range model got things hilariously wrong last winter with oceans of northern blocking and high pressure anchored over Greenland for weeks on end when it didn't even settle over Greenland for 1 day. CFS will always show the form horse and 9 times out of 10 it is correct in doing so. CFS didn't show the recent cold spell in it's modelling until 2 days prior. The long range models are grim for the rest of winter but that doesn't mean they are correct.