FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

squarecircles

Very bland boring conditions for the rest of january after the localised wintry conditions of this week pass. Another winter going down the toilet.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123020795#Comment_123020795

Jesus your negativity knows no bounds 😂 A long way to go yet.

Gonzo

Mayo and Donegal will get plenty of snow over the next 2 days with heavy frequent snow showers.

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123020795#Comment_123020795

No weather between Ireland and North Africa, no weather in Spain and Portugal either, now that’s what I call bland and boring!

nacho libre

It could be the blandness, as you put it, that leads to something favourable down the line. I am not saying it will happen, but it's foolish to write off the rest of January at this early stage. Significant snowfall can often be rather localised- just as we saw in November. Although I wouldn't class this weekends snow as being localised given several counties between Munster and Leinster have seen significant snow fall

John.Icy

It would be pretty groundbreaking given our winter climate of new to go from one cold spell directly into the next with no blandness in between.

No stonking operationals in FI in the 12z's to post but still seeing some encouragement. The progression to some sort of strong blocking high development looks increasingly likely.

To really bring home the goods, we need the upcoming Canadian warming to do us a solid, the PV to continue it's march eastwards, and then we have a gap for the blocking high to get sucked up NW to somewhere more favourable for a cold spell.

This was the extended ECM from this morning (0z). Absolutely loaded.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123022825#Comment_123022825

Indeed. New or old... contrary to popular perception, famed past cold spells had less cold/ milder interludes. I would love if we had two months- heck even a month of uninterrupted cold but that just doesn't happen- even 2010 had a less cold period before it all kicked off again on the 16th of December.

John.Icy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123022926#Comment_123022926

Oh we need breaks for sure. I don't think I'd cope endless weeks of 'non-events' and complaints about warnings no matter how accurate.

ECM +240.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123022926#Comment_123022926

From what I remember 2010 had the major cold spell end of November into start of December, lots of snow and then when the milder weather came back in it was only with us a day or 2 when FI starting showing a massive reload and it happened about a week later and we all know what happened in the 2 weeks to the run up to Christmas 2010. So yeah at least a week or 2 between major cold outbreaks is the very least amount of mild we can expect between 2 cold spells.

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123023022#Comment_123023022

Boy does that look primed, the ecm has gone with a few of these charts over the last few days, it will be interesting to see the next few frames shortly.

ClimateObserver

Today's 12z ECMWF is quite juicy. Four days of milder conditions (Sunday → Wednesday) though may not be overly mild if we get inversion cold from the high pressure. Then a release of cold north easterlies thenafter

Thunder87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123023046#Comment_123023046

It never really got mild for most in 2010, we had a week or so before the reload where daily highs got up around 5-6C but still with overnight frosts. I remember there were some places where snow survived the whole spell so had a month of lying snow. Probably a once in a lifetime event for most of us unfortunately

nacho libre

Another chase,anyone?

Billcarson

I never trust anything regarding potential for a decent cold spell for the second half of January though one will surely come at some point. Haven't had one in yrs.

TheMilkyPirate

High pressure has been trying to go north east towards Greenland on a good few runs now but just gets barreled out of it by big dartboard lows. Something brewing but what it will amount to who knows.

The retrogresion of a scandi high to Greenland seems to have been dropped by the models which is a shame as that would be the preferred route as far as I can tell.

WolfeEire

the only thing jumping out at me from from the ensembles is high pressure becoming increasingly dominant. The positioning of this high pressure will ultimately dictate our weather

nacho libre

Yes, I fear it will be a cloudy high. We just have to hope that it eventually moves to a favourable location, but your favourite teleconnection the MJO is not supportive of that happening

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123028123#Comment_123028123

No Bartlett highs hopefully, they suck the life out of winter.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123028135#Comment_123028135

🤢 Teleconnections and MJO phases. Reminds of Netweather technical forum. Meteorological mental gymnastics for me.

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123028153#Comment_123028153

I agree. I think Gaoth Laidir is good on it.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123028156#Comment_123028156

not sure he goes too deep into that stuff. He loves a good TAFF, sounding or METAR though. He has a penchant for wet bulbs too 🤣

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123028172#Comment_123028172

Oh yeah, I'm mixing him up with someone else on here, or Netweather!

Oh he loves his wet bulbs😅 Yesterday's description was textbook perfect 😊

Elmer Blooker

So another year and another winter eating mid lat anticyclone dominating, the usual ‘unprecedented’ winter storms in N America and no doubt Athens snow to complete the hat-trick.

I think we can write off Greenland blocking now which isn’t surprising as northern blocking doesn’t exist in a winter month anymore.

Gonzo

Our next chance at a cold spell is probably going to be in February, big model support for a very much warmer than average second half of January for us.

squarecircles

Not long till the endless blow torch is back again , after a hugely anti climactic cold spell, that failed to deliver nationwide cold and snow.

Those chilly summer days not far away.

Thunder87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123015382#Comment_123015382

I called it a few days ago, amazing how accurate the models can be when showing blowtorch south westerlies

Looks like heatwave conditions next week, we'd be looking at a scorching spell of weather if this happened any time from May to October.

Gonzo

Uncertainty about Northern Blocking over the coming weeks with a huge amount of scatter but it looks like the trend is for it to go neutral.

NAO to go neutral or weakly positive.

This tells us that any short term models showing blocking or Greenland highs are therefore very unreliable and not well supported. No signs of an SSW anytime soon either. While there is warming it's nowhere near enough to disrupt the PV and it will remain in business into February.

John.Icy

Yep, Canadian warming no longer looks up to much, certainly isn't giving us a hand in displacing the vortex to our side of the hemisphere anymore, which was giving us that gap for a potential retrogression without all our friends of the alphabet being optimal. Our forming high is going to end up being much more of a high centred south or over us. A little to the north and it could have put more pressure on the strat and vortex.

But alas, the northern hemisphere view is grim this morning. No vortex displacement to our side and if anything, it looks like it's going to get pretty comfortable over Greenland, which is a bad outcome.

Not to worry, lots of time left. People say the charts can change at short notice which is true, but you still have to get some of the dross out of the way first once it sets up. The short term changes to a better outlook tend to come after a few weeks of pain is what I'm saying. After the November spell, we had to go through some 3-4 odd weeks of a fairly consistent pattern of an Azores/Euro high domination with a brief amplification of said high into more of a UK high around the 10th of December. If the charts above set up, you quite simply can't will them away with positive energy and sods law says we'll have to go through a decent length transitional period before we get the next window. So enjoy any crispy clear cold weather to come this week, and this thread can hopefully pick back up in 10-14 or so days with some eye candy.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123028153#Comment_123028153

As important as they all are, I think it does help this place that no one is ever too fussed over tracking them here. The shenanigans over the 2024 January potential on Netweather saw several teleconnection experts leave the forum in the fury afterwards. Basically were giving nailed on 2010 potential because of how incredibly the background signals were aligning. Then then meltdowns ensued when people dared to question whether or not they're that important given the holy grail of background drivers and teleconnections can't even pull off a cold spell.

I think they lead people to thinking that they're a promise to win the lotto, rather than that they might buy you a ticket to have a chance at winning the lotto.

rooney30

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123028904#Comment_123028904

In my lifetime I cannot remember a single occasion of nationwide snow , and I’m an 80s child , maybe you can ??

squonk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123029379#Comment_123029379

Nope same. Back in 81 or 82 I was very young but was visiting friends and family with my parents in Kildare and also Tallaght. There was extensive score in Dublin and also in Kildare. I remember travelling home and not being able to wait so I could build a snowman. As we drive down through the country the score became lighter in spots. I can’t remember how things were in Clare but I think we got enough. I get mixed up however as I was young and there was snow in both 81 and 82 I think. So, even then there was no instance of a complete countrywide whiteout.