FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123005953#Comment_123005953

I wouldn't worry about it too much, even if it verified we have at least a week of winter weather to come, over the past 6 years we were lucky to get a day or 2 each winter.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123006366#Comment_123006366

That's a more positive outlook from you Gonzo. Was that one of your New Year resolutions? You are right though. If we are lucky some places may see a decent snowfall over the weekend.

nacho libre

Well looking long term ,the scandi high option while it might not have the right orientation to advect cold our way could put further pressure on the strat. Although we could just as easily end up with a uk based high- which would not be a bad option to keep things at the surface cold( assuming there is no mild breakthrough before hand). What we really don't want is to end up with a high that sinks into Europe and leads to days of mild, damp and dreary weather. We had enough of that in December already!

John.Icy

Don't want to clog the event thread, but GFS 6z really plays out some of the chatter online on where things could go.

Wedge to Scandi → this really is popping up a lot. A block to develop, no guarantee orientation is favourable intially due to the nature of them. Could be anything from a mild southerly, to a cool SE'rly to a cold E'ly. But it's the stress this block may put on the strat and the vortex is where the next interest would lie.

6z retrogresses the block N/NW, majority of the polar vortex migrates to eastern side of the hemisphere. That's key, we don't want a big lobe of PV anywhere near Canada or Greenland, which usually fires up the jet and screws us with zonality.

It would be locked and loaded for a seismic cold spell if you could latch onto a decent northerly or northeasterly down the line.

And yeah yeah, +384 I know. It's just for fun though, lots of exciting weather to get through before the next phase.

KingdomRushed

Gonna say I'm a little on the fence here. It appears slightly more marginal than the excitement would suggest. Love to be proven wrong of course. Bearing in mind its a rare enough set up so not a huge amount to compare it to

Dickie10

any basis for thinking a cold spell of weather could get locked in for prolonged period? Seems we get 3/4 weeks of weather when we get a change in the weather . Like rain, drought , dull and dry

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123010667#Comment_123010667

Even in the famed winters of 1947 and 1962, and December 2010 there were periods of less cold weather. An extended cold spell of 3-4 weeks without interruption is therefore extremely unlikely. We will be doing very well if this cold spell lasts through to next weekend. I am just trying to focus on the next few days rather than fixating on when the breakdown comes. Just to clarify a breakdown to me means a return to average temperatures- anything that is too mild for snow to fall. I would hope any breakdown/ less cold period is brief before a return to colder conditions

John.Icy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009226#Comment_123009226

Variation on the above theme on the 18z too.

Brrrr.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123011412#Comment_123011412

What us Dubs and eastern counties are craving for. It will certainly be a January to remember if that verifies. Pity it’s the pub run but as you said it was hinted at on the 6z as well.

esposito

👌🏻

John.Icy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123011431#Comment_123011431

Yeah it's been several days now this idea of Scandi heights has been there. The 6z and 18z are examples of it going textbook perfect in terms of the emerging scandi block retrogressing and the polar vortex transferring east.

The biggest thing against us though is that from my reading of updates from the teleconnections crew over at Netweather, there's pretty much nothing 'forcing' us in the direction of a major blocking episode in terms of all these MJOs (we are currently in the favourable phases 7/8 but that is coming to an end) and other drivers. T

Not to say you can't still get a good end result in spite of that, but it makes life a hell of a lot harder if everything is against you.

nacho libre

Do these models not take into account atmospheric drivers. ? From what I read recently the QBO has gone easterly ahead of time which may favour more blocking episodes. I don't think these teleconnections are the be all and end all. Then again I could be accused of ignorance for saying that because I don't know enough about them, but while they may drive weather patterns worldwide they don't always determine what weather we get locally. I suppose if the Idea of a Scandi high vanishes and we return to something more zonal then maybe they( the teleconnection experts)were right. However it could be that we get lucky the scandi high forms before the influence of the mjo becomes negative. What I would like to know is just how many mid to high latitude blocking episodes over the last 60 years corresponded with the mjo being in phase 7 or 8. Of course there are other factors to such as AM, ,MT,GWO. Now my head is starting to hurt;)

John.Icy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123009226#Comment_123009226

Add the 0z and below 12z to the list on this pattern progression. Alignment not amazing on this option in terms of a stiff northerly or north easterly, we end up largely in a slack col, but severely cold nonetheless.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123013655#Comment_123013655

If only we could get a boxed in high more to the center of Greenland rather than it all going too far west.

WolfeEire

Some small signs that a return to colder weather is possible after mid-month, but they are generally not well supported at this time.

The cold spell will come to a close for Ireland on Friday or Saturday when milder air takes hold. High pressure will be situated close to Ireland and will keep our weather relatively settled, which is a plus.

Elmer Blooker

After seeing the ECM 216 which can only be described as gruesome I’m quite happy with that 240 chart above, looks like going up.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123014055#Comment_123014055

It is rather handsome alright!! Is this officially the next chase? 😶

almostthere12

Not surprised the models have started showing this from mid month, the regime charts have been showing blocking for most of January for a while now……best not look at February!!!

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123014055#Comment_123014055

Prior to some epic past cold spells the charts in some cases looked crap - you would be forgiven for thinking we were not on the cusp of a major cold spell. I am not saying that's going to happen this time but I noticed WolfeEire seems to have become more positive already

Gonzo

I don't believe for a second that the current cold spell we have entered will be the only one of the winter, there's bound to be another one. Winters in Ireland are usually mild from start to finish but when the winters have a decent cold spell in terms of length there is usually more than one in that winter, that's what I find. I'm not looking forward to all the cold rain for my location over the next 2 days but I am looking forward to all the ice days next week.

I just hope if and when we get a reload that it will be a proper easterly this time. Dublin/Meath/Louth has been shafted now for far too long and we need a few miracles and invent new prayers.

Brendan offaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123014477#Comment_123014477

You might be suprised over the weekend.

Nowcast , remember.

Thunder87

Looks nice and warm next week, temperatures well up into the mid teens 😎

esposito

High pressure attempting to go northwest into Greenland again in FI. Interesting.

John.Icy

ECM extended below, very similar to a lot of recent GFS runs I've been posted, though nothing dramatic on this.

Greater trend that the brief Scandi wedge will drive a big blocking high further south than hoped, as the +216 someone posted above, bringing a blip of milder air. In the most ideal world this would form further north and not be so centred over us, as it would allow colder air into the circulation under the block and towards us. However, the trend for the high to build NW is still there, with transfer of a large amount of the PV to the eastern side of the hemisphere.

Both ECM and GFS sniffing up this tree now. One to occupy myself with from a snowless Dublin.

Elmer Blooker

John.Icy .. the +216 you mentioned is the 12z from yesterday, the 00z while not brilliant is certainly not as bad. Could even be cold with clear skies and a drift off the continent which should be snow covered?

.Donegal.

Not often you see a 20c temperature contrast . -10 West Ulster and 10c extreme SW.

TheMilkyPirate

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123016450#Comment_123016450

Would love to see the next few frames of that ECM. Something interesting to watch over the next week or so.

WolfeEire

The ECM starting to head north here. Interesting Interesting.model watching beyond this cold period

WolfeEire

It's quite likely that the current cold spell will come to an end this Friday into Saturday. It will be relatively dry and mild for a week or more. Some background signals that we could have a reload of cold in the final 7-10 days of the month.

WolfeEire

Temperatures recovering slowly from this Friday before eventually settling to normal or slightly below normal for the time of year as high pressure will be located close to Ireland.