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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,037 ✭✭✭ arctictree


    We are a long way away from a UI when talking about a border poll.

    I think though that we will enter a period of all Ireland co-operation on steroids with a SF first minister. That assembly will be very unstable and constantly under threat of suspension.

    There needs to be a bit of maturity though. Are there any other parliaments where the parties are constantly threatening to pull out?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,998 ✭✭✭ Padre_Pio


    How many people on both sides would agree to a United Ireland that would end the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland?

    UI won't be the RoI plus 6, it may mean a new state, new constitution etc etc.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,124 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout



    I suspect not many. A lot of the people in the Republic are in favour of a United Ireland in theory but as soon as you start getting into the detail and potential compromises they throw their hands at it. In order to be a stable country any United Ireland would need to have a new flag, anthem and the Republic would need to step in and pay the subvention costs that are currently being shouldered by London (£15m last year).

    All of that would be hammered home in any Referendum campaign by the No side and I couldn't see it passing (although I would still vote for it myself).



  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 25,289 Mod ✭✭✭✭ looksee


    That is exactly right. I'd guess most people here thinking of a united Ireland are thinking in terms of incorporating NI into the Republic, but while no doubt the Republic would be picking up the tab for supporting the North, just taking in the 6 counties into the existing Republic is not going to happen. If the UK saw fit to send NI on its way with a big enough dowry, and the EU maybe came up with a wedding present, pragmatism might overcome some of the loyalty to the crown, but it would still be an unholy struggle.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,998 ✭✭✭ Padre_Pio


    This is my takeaway from any UI discussion.

    Incorporating NI isn't like adding an extension onto your house. It's a new house.

    Even in the event of a Yes vote, RoI and NI would need to make serious concessions to appease those on both sides. IMO that means a new parliament and election process, likely a new constitution, anthem, President, and Presidential election process. Maybe a new capital city?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,178 ✭✭✭ Nate--IRL--


    That will all have to be agreed before a vote IMO.

    Nate



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,883 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    As I said earlier, it would be another GF agreement. Nothing agreed until everything is agreed.

    It would help if there was no economic deficit visited on the existing 26 counties. Also, the existing system of government would enter a long transition period for many facets of government, including taxation, policing, health, social security, etc. The question of national voting and representation is unlikely to be changed, and the President would not suddenly become a monarch.

    If one was designing a flag for the new state, one would choose a tricolour with a green stripe for the Irish nationalist side, orange for the unionists, separated with a white panel representing peace. Unfortunately, that design has already been taken and is unacceptable to one side. Does it matter? Well, yes.

    An approach would be to introduce a much stronger local government system.

    Brexit might force the issue.



  • Registered Users Posts: 756 ✭✭✭ generic_throwaway


    I don't disagree with any of this, but I think the Loyalist thugs won't be bothered that the subsidy is decreasing, or services cut in NI. Or if they are bothered, you know who they will blame.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,176 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    There will be a definitely be a group that won't care about the subsidies because they probably already revelling in the miserable life they have. You meet these people in Britain and ROI too, the types who are proud that they have a complete hatred of broadening their horizons whatsoever. I'm talking the kind of people who don't get off the couch unless it's to batter children on the way to school.

    In terms of Brexit I met many leave voters who didn't give a toss about the strength of sterling vs Euro or it's affect on the stock markets because they thought it wouldn't affect the sheltered 1 pub, 1 bookies, 1 supermarket lives. Some didn't even care about blue passports because they had no intention of ever travelling.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,094 ✭✭✭✭ Strazdas


    It would definitely be a new state. It could even end up being something like Belgium, with two jurisdictions within the same country i.e. Stormont and the PSNI etc are retained, even after union.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,585 ✭✭✭✭ kowloon


    Would the size disparity end up causing trouble down the road? It might still end up in an "us and them" situation, which isn't much better than it is now. Politically, would the two parts of New-Ireland be weighted to stop NI from being sidelined? Electoral boundaries would be a nightmare no matter what system was figured out for a UI. Glad it's never going to be my job.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,094 ✭✭✭✭ Strazdas


    I've heard one suggestion that the new state could even be divided into the four provinces in a bid to counteract the problem you describe.

    I guess all of this would have to be thrashed out before a referendum. It would be no bad thing IMO if Scotland left the UK before such a border poll was held - it would bring some realism to the debate and tell everyone that 'the UK' had no future.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,275 ✭✭✭ Gerry T


    Time will resolve many of these issues. With time more trade will flow NI -- IRL and people will settle into the new norm. NI will see it's performing better than the rest of the UK and 'project blame the EU on everything' will be seen for the scapegoat it always was. Unionists will realise that their links to the UK have been eroded and England doesn't care much at all about them. You can never break the nationalist drive in someone but with time older generations will pass and a gambling man would suggest younger generations are less inclined to spite himself so he can wrap himself in the union jack.

    It's best NI people are left to decide for themselves, at a time that's right. Outside interference or any form of 'Johnson' catalyst will only cause more trouble than it's worth.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,585 ✭✭✭✭ kowloon


    The thing about the likes of the DUP is they're like an abused child; they keep seeing clear displays that Westminster doesn't care about them but can't (or won't) do anything about it because their ideology doesn't allow it. They're British to the core, the loyalest loyalists. They'll keep asking "did I do good Daddy?" only to be locked back in the basement until they're asked to prove their worth again getting something over the line for the tories.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭ BluePlanet


    The British are basically hardening the border, or at least intend to.





  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,649 CMod ✭✭✭✭ Nody


    I guess this will be executed exactly as the new border controls; i.e. not at all in reality for a very long time if ever but it makes a great Telegraph headline.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,060 ✭✭✭✭ Podge_irl


    The British are making pointless public gestures and pretending to harden the border on paper. There will be no de facto difference.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭ BluePlanet


    Shouldn't RoI and the EU retaliate with a similar law?

    Even if it's just performative.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,954 ✭✭✭ 28064212


    That's exactly what the Tories want. EU retaliates, Tories escalate, tit-for-tat ensues, and everyone forgets who started it in the first place, both sides look as bad as each other. It's the same tired play they've been making since 2016, and it hasn't worked once yet, but it's the only play they have.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭ BluePlanet


    I don't think so. I think it may be in our long term interests that the border hardens as a result of Brexit, as I believe that will drive a UI.

    The British have correctly identified the NI border as a weak point in the Single Market. They are looking for to use it as leverage and this latest bill could be seen as a sort of probing attack on that border. Depending on our response we could well see more of this sort of thing occurring.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭ pg633


    I don't think there is much more we could do even if we wanted.

    The reciprocal is already applied.

    A British person can travel here but if the want to travel on then to the rest of the EU they need to register.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,176 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    Causing awful problems in the hopes of a future UI off in the distance is the kind of thinking that lead to Brexit. We should do what's best for now and not some imaginary future



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭ BluePlanet


    Well, if i understand correctly, the British government have allowed loads of people from Hong Kong and soon, India into the UK.

    If those people hold British passports then they have rights to enter here, but if they don't, then that can provide a pretext to respond with similar passport checks on our side.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,633 Mod ✭✭✭✭ L1011


    The Hong Kong passports will be British National Overseas ones + a UK visa, which would not give rights to live in Ireland.

    Ireland has plenty of people with visas that don't allow them in to the UK and vice versa already



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,998 ✭✭✭ Padre_Pio


    Pure nonsense. How will this be enforced if there's no physical border?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭ BluePlanet


    Consider it part of planning for UI.

    Short termism isn't going to cut it, while that is certainly a characteristic of most our serving politicians, eventually someone has extend the horizon a bit and plan ahead for future that is beyond 5 yrs.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,884 ✭✭✭ ambro25


    Spot and ad hoc checks, at a guess.

    And, for anyone looking to do more than merely transiting, then as usual by employers, landlords, administrations, etc.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,176 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    You can plan for a UI without shafting everyone along the border for what could be years. Hard border on not we will be lucky to see a UI before I die so I think we should continue to ensure an open border rather than gamble it on what ifs



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭ BluePlanet


    I have a different view. If the people along the border feel shafted, it is the result of Britains decision to Brexit, and not just that but to Brexit with the most extreme version where they opt out of the SM.

    Now we can get try and fudge things and basically soften the SM, but who actually benefits from that? The Tories do for one, and their weaponizing the border getting results. This to me, sounds exactly like what a partionionist mindset would prefer.



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