Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

To date, polling consistently shows that a UI would be defeated. It would indeed be interesting times if Stormont didn't exist and a UI was rejected.

I do find it really odd that rather than use Frost departure as a chance to reset, to pause and look at how things were going, looking at a different approach, instead they are simply continuing on the exact same path.

Prior to every meeting the UK, originally through Frost and now Truss, send out a PR threat that Art 16 is going to be triggered unless they get what they want. The EU then ignores it, maybe calls for calm and says its unhelpful to continue making threats, and then simply asks the UK how they intend to solve the issues, for which they never have an answer.

It has been said many times that Brexit is like the dog that caught the car, and A16 is exactly the same.

Both the UK and the EU know that the real value of A16 is the threat to trigger it. Once that is actually triggered, it loses all its powers. If the UK trigger it, what then? What is the next step? What is, once they enter into negotiation, the EU simply holds its current position? Is the UK really going to tear up the entire deal when the last 12 months have shown that in almost every area they are actually looking at rowing back on the extremes?

The EU know that no UK government is going to want to start the entire process from scratch. Telling business, farmers, fishermen etc that the problems they had dealt with, and maybe overcome, are all now in vain and that no only do they have all the additional paperwork and costs, they are no going to suffer tariffs and quotas?

Maybe it shouldn't happen sooner.

Personally, I think a UI vote should be at least 10 years in the future. When Brexit is a thing of the past and a Yes vote is assured. The worst thing that could happen is another 52 - 48 vote either way, or emotional voting based on current circumstances, or protest voting, which would land Ireland in a Brexit-like situation.

There's an 8% gap in favour of 'Remain' in the latest opinion poll. 'Leave' voters tend to be younger though. Just to clarify lest there be any confusion, 'Remain' means remaining in the UK and 'Leave' means joining the RoI....

The speech Patrick Kielty made on the subject recently was very interesting. He says we will never have a 'united' Ireland in the true sense of the word as British unionism and Irish nationalism are poles apart in terms of identity and culture. But we could definitely end up with some sort of 32 county solution where both are able to co-exist peacefully and amicably.

There will never be a united NI. The two main unionist parties can't even come out and say whether they would accept a SF First Minister. Supposedly moderate Doug Beattie can't even stomach an Irish language act. Ask them what they think of Irish people showing reluctance to change their anthem and flag in a shared all-island state and they will point to this as evidence that we don't really want a shared island; yet ask them why a shared NI doesn't likewise need a new flag and anthem and they say it's not required. The reality is they don't want a shared NI. They want the NI of the 1950s when they ran the show. Donaldson recently was cheering Kate Hoey's remarks bemoaning why there are so many nationalists in educated fields.

We are a long way away from a UI when talking about a border poll.

I think though that we will enter a period of all Ireland co-operation on steroids with a SF first minister. That assembly will be very unstable and constantly under threat of suspension.

There needs to be a bit of maturity though. Are there any other parliaments where the parties are constantly threatening to pull out?

I suspect not many. A lot of the people in the Republic are in favour of a United Ireland in theory but as soon as you start getting into the detail and potential compromises they throw their hands at it. In order to be a stable country any United Ireland would need to have a new flag, anthem and the Republic would need to step in and pay the subvention costs that are currently being shouldered by London (£15m last year).

All of that would be hammered home in any Referendum campaign by the No side and I couldn't see it passing (although I would still vote for it myself).

This is my takeaway from any UI discussion.

Incorporating NI isn't like adding an extension onto your house. It's a new house.

Even in the event of a Yes vote, RoI and NI would need to make serious concessions to appease those on both sides. IMO that means a new parliament and election process, likely a new constitution, anthem, President, and Presidential election process. Maybe a new capital city?

There will be a definitely be a group that won't care about the subsidies because they probably already revelling in the miserable life they have. You meet these people in Britain and ROI too, the types who are proud that they have a complete hatred of broadening their horizons whatsoever. I'm talking the kind of people who don't get off the couch unless it's to batter children on the way to school.

In terms of Brexit I met many leave voters who didn't give a toss about the strength of sterling vs Euro or it's affect on the stock markets because they thought it wouldn't affect the sheltered 1 pub, 1 bookies, 1 supermarket lives. Some didn't even care about blue passports because they had no intention of ever travelling.

Would the size disparity end up causing trouble down the road? It might still end up in an "us and them" situation, which isn't much better than it is now. Politically, would the two parts of New-Ireland be weighted to stop NI from being sidelined? Electoral boundaries would be a nightmare no matter what system was figured out for a UI. Glad it's never going to be my job.

Time will resolve many of these issues. With time more trade will flow NI -- IRL and people will settle into the new norm. NI will see it's performing better than the rest of the UK and 'project blame the EU on everything' will be seen for the scapegoat it always was. Unionists will realise that their links to the UK have been eroded and England doesn't care much at all about them. You can never break the nationalist drive in someone but with time older generations will pass and a gambling man would suggest younger generations are less inclined to spite himself so he can wrap himself in the union jack.

It's best NI people are left to decide for themselves, at a time that's right. Outside interference or any form of 'Johnson' catalyst will only cause more trouble than it's worth.

The British are basically hardening the border, or at least intend to.