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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,053 ✭✭✭✭ Strazdas


    Truss sabre rattling about the Protocol in the Telegraph tonight, but it might just be for ERG consumption, hard to tell.

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1479940140202135554



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,714 ✭✭✭✭ Leroy42


    Truss really really means it though.

    What can be read into that is that Truss's dinners with Coveney et al achieved nothing, since they are right back to exactly the same position.



  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 25,285 Mod ✭✭✭✭ looksee


    Post removed, more suited to a different thread.

    Post edited by looksee on


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,053 ✭✭✭✭ Strazdas


    Post edited by ancapailldorcha on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,161 ✭✭✭ Enzokk


    What was that definition of insanity? I guess Truss doing the exact thing that led to Frost leaving seems to fall within this category. Her quotes is just a rehash of the same old argument,


    '"But let me be clear, I will not sign up to anything which sees the people of Northern Ireland unable to benefit from the same decisions on taxation and spending as the rest of the UK, or which still sees goods moving within our own country being subject to checks.

    "My priority is to protect peace and stability in Northern Ireland. I want a negotiated solution but if we have to use legitimate provisions including Article 16, I am willing to do that."'



    So we are back where Brexit fell down under May and before Johnson sold NI down the river. I understand the frustration from Sefcovic really, he says it best,

    'Last week, Mr Šefčovič warned that "the foundation of the entire deal" brokered between the UK and the EU would be jeopardised if Ms Truss takes the drastic step.

    "This is a very distracting element in the discussions. You try to achieve something together and - bam - there's the threat of Article 16 again," he told German newspaper Der Spiegel.

    "It touches on the fundamentals of our relationship.

    "The Northern Ireland Protocol was the most complicated part of the Brexit negotiations, and it is the foundation of the entire deal. Without the protocol, the whole system will collapse. We must prevent that at any cost."'


    On Labour and their plan to make Brexit work, we have to be realistic that there is still a substantial of the electorate that has been groomed to believe that the EU is the enemy and if Labour proposed to rejoin it would cost them votes. They are not in a position with FPTP to go down this route so the next best thing, make it work. It means as much as "Get Brexit Done" but it allows them to be clear without needing to be specific and get bogged down in the details.


    It was the details that cost Remain, Labour would do well to stay away from making the same mistakes again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,301 ✭✭✭ peter kern


    well it does sound most ports around this one are doing not well at all since boats form far away go to this port in the paper

    that success is not brexit their success seems to start to use modern technology before brexit and be better prepared than the other ports for the problems that arise form brexit ,



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,828 ✭✭✭✭ Ads by Google


    Fair play to them for being prepared. It is a very localised success, but one nonetheless.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,369 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    Mod: Let's not rehash the debate from 5 years ago please. It's been done to death.

    Show me a god that does not demand mortal suffering. Show me a god that celebrates diversity, a celebration that embraces even non-believers, and is not threatened by them. Show me a god that understands the meaning of peace. In life, not in death.

    Steven Erikson



  • Registered Users Posts: 44,114 ✭✭✭✭ Mr.Nice Guy


    The journalist Sam McBride had an article recently on the possibility of the DUP engineering a crisis over port checks.

    I wonder are the comments from Truss part of a coordinated effort by the ERG and DUP to lay the groundwork for justifying the triggering of Article 16. She will need the ERG types for her own leadership ambitions. Create the problem, and then claim that only you can fix the problem. Hope that the US swallows it.

    💙

    💛



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,865 ✭✭✭✭ murphaph


    Very risky given the EU seems to have weathered brexit much better than the UK and many in the EU side fear a no deal/tear up the TCA a heck of a lot less now than a few years ago, simply because we know the UK has shown it will wave stuff through fairly readily.



  • Registered Users Posts: 504 ✭✭✭ farmerval


    It's quite stunning how poorly the UK has played it's hand in agreeing a deal with the EU. Trying to engineer concessions now when it's clear they're unable to enforce restrictions on EU goods coming to Britian is incredible. It really is sticking your finger in your pocket to pretend you have a gun.

    Very Donald Trump negotiations, bellicose, no notion about facts or details, willing to agree to anything once you think it makes it look like you won. That kind of nonsense won't wash with any serious trading group. The US would make such mincemeat of the UK in a trade agreement, and the Tories would lap it up, bullshit about the special relationship etc etc.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 88,798 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Capt'n Midnight


    The good news for the DUP is that the New Decade, NewApproach means ministers can stay in office for weeks and weeks if the Assembly is suspended. And that would take us to the Assembley elections on 5th May.


    The bad news for the DUP is that in 2017 28% voted DUP, now only 16% are largely committed to doing so now. 9% have gone to the TUV and 3% to the UUP. An additional 6% more are toying with the idea of switching to TUV and a further 6% to the UUP.

    If Stornmount is collapsed then it like the first comment says it may not be coming back and that makes a border poll more likely. Whatever about Boris giving Liz the poison chalice, would he stoke the fires in NI in the political game to keep his power within the Conservative party ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,323 ✭✭✭✭ Peregrinus


    We already know the answer to this one. Yes, he would.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,332 ✭✭✭✭ Professor Moriarty


    To date, polling consistently shows that a UI would be defeated. It would indeed be interesting times if Stormont didn't exist and a UI was rejected.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,860 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    Polling on a UI is specious.

    A poll on a UI is only possible if the SoS for NI determines (he personally) that such a poll would succeed. Before he can determine that, a proposal for a settlement between the various interested parties, both internationally, and within Ireland and NI, with detailed proposals on how everything would work. It would be another Good Friday/Belfast agreement type of scenario. A very detailed proposition would have to be hammered out and every aspect nailed down, before any vote.

    It would start with the SoS announces that he is minded to investigate the possibility - effectively lighting the blue touch paper. I doubt that will happen with this Gov in control - no matter what.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭ Podge_irl


    I don't even understand the logic behind saying a collapsed Stormont makes a border poll more likely.

    It is, nonetheless, entirely within the grace of the NI SoS to call it and that is not going to happen.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,860 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    There is no logic.

    If, in the unlikely event that the Stormont elections in May return a majority in favour of a UI, and pass a motion asking the SoS to hold a border poll, then it might happen, but even then, it is still in the personal gift of the SoS. This UK Gov will never agree to a border poll.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 88,798 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Capt'n Midnight


    Today yes. But without a Northern Ireland Assembly it would happen sooner.


    Anyway the DUP have made the made the noises so 'hold me back'




  • Registered Users Posts: 14,332 ✭✭✭✭ Professor Moriarty


    There's an 8% gap in favour of 'Remain' in the latest opinion poll. 'Leave' voters tend to be younger though. Just to clarify lest there be any confusion, 'Remain' means remaining in the UK and 'Leave' means joining the RoI....



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,053 ✭✭✭✭ Strazdas


    The speech Patrick Kielty made on the subject recently was very interesting. He says we will never have a 'united' Ireland in the true sense of the word as British unionism and Irish nationalism are poles apart in terms of identity and culture. But we could definitely end up with some sort of 32 county solution where both are able to co-exist peacefully and amicably.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 CMod ✭✭✭✭ Nody



    I think the answer sits in the subsidy in general to be honest, once UK cuts that off I got a feeling a United Ireland with funding for the unification etc. suddenly sounds like not so bad after all. The reason I think they are going to cut the funding is simple, Tories don't care about NI as they got the votes in support anyway and Labour will care about the heartlands more than NI were they get zero votes (hence shifting the funding to their heartland makes more sense). I could even see SF do a once in a life time move to vote with Labour government for the promise of a vote on a UI.



  • Registered Users Posts: 44,114 ✭✭✭✭ Mr.Nice Guy


    There will never be a united NI. The two main unionist parties can't even come out and say whether they would accept a SF First Minister. Supposedly moderate Doug Beattie can't even stomach an Irish language act. Ask them what they think of Irish people showing reluctance to change their anthem and flag in a shared all-island state and they will point to this as evidence that we don't really want a shared island; yet ask them why a shared NI doesn't likewise need a new flag and anthem and they say it's not required. The reality is they don't want a shared NI. They want the NI of the 1950s when they ran the show. Donaldson recently was cheering Kate Hoey's remarks bemoaning why there are so many nationalists in educated fields.

    💙

    💛



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,860 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    Brexit is a narrow edge where NI is different from rUK which will widen if the EU are generous with NI supports, and show positive attitudes towards NI, fostered by our Gov. If the UK Gov decides this is an opportunity to cut back on funding for NI, on the basis they are doing better, then the tipping point will be reached when Loyalty will tilt towards the half-crown from the current Loyalty to the Crown.

    May bought the DUP with a bung to NI, so they have form in this. [Whatever happened to all that money?]



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