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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 29,134 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha

    Their being poor politicians is inherent in their willingness to put greed and opportunism before country. You are correct in that the party has eschewed talent in favour of loyalty. It looks more like a feudal court than anything else with various individuals jostling for Johnson's favour while the outcasts plot against him.

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,119 ✭✭✭ fash

    Prior to the brexit referendum, euroscepticism in the major parties was the preserve of the "loser/failure/2nd rate/mediocre" politicians.

    Brexit filtered for political mediocrity.

    Following the brexit victory, only these mediocrities could be selected from to represent "the will of the people".

  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 32,330 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Seth Brundle

    The Food & Drink Federation have published more bad news for GB exports...

    Without wanting to dump a load of tweets in here (click on the above for more info) but since 2019 trade with Germany is down 44.5%, Italy down 43.3%, Spain down 50.6% and Irl down more than 25% (by nearly £0.75bn)

    Global sales of whiskey and salmon and soft drinks are up but all other major products are down. Exports to non-EU markets (China, Taiwan...) is up but I'm not sure if these were much to statrt with.

    Imports also appear to be down: from NL down by 19%, Irl down by 20.1% and Ger by 33.1%

  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 32,330 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Seth Brundle

    I also spotted this video of Penny Mordaunt who is over in the States trying to drum up trade. Interesting choice of descriptions and language - will the Americans fall for it? I don't think so!

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,479 ✭✭✭✭ Leroy42

    The fact that she even has to say that it isn't an act of self harm tells you that they know that that is how everyone is viewing it.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,893 ✭✭✭ Bigus

    If you’re a van driver or driving a commercial vehicle with a trailer from the uk doing drops to the EU a you’re in for a rude awakening,

    £1100 to operate now for uk drivers in the EU.

    I’ve heard rather expression death by 1000 cuts , but the EU is really biting Brexiteers hard.

    Also I saw two Van life female campers explaining really well and intelligently, how Europe differs from EU and ultimately Schengen area.

    they explained how the 180 / 90 day rule works and how UK people could use the Schengen area to legally circumvent not having to return to the actual UK auto stay legal in Europe and not fall foul of EU rules if you wanted to stay away from the UK for more than a year.

    this was about 3 months ago.

    In fairness they weren’t being , smart, arrogant or smug about this but were demonstrating a genuine way to stay in Europe post Brexit for more than 3 months by using non Schengen areas and Turkey etc.

    However their plan was to stay in Slovenia and Croatia, but now, in December, Slovenia and Croatia are snowed under so instead of ideally being down around the warm med ,Brexit has forced them to be frozen out , and they are on their way home to UK now, and going to spend post Christmas in Scotland .

    Also apart from the cold the native winter time (as against summer holiday makers)reaction to the now mandatory UK and GB sticker has caused them untold hostility from the normally friendly locals.

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,396 ✭✭✭✭ kowloon

  • Registered Users Posts: 445 ✭✭ farmerval

    After the first IRAQ war reading a book about how the US got involved there, one of the fascinating things was a lot of the supporting cast, including the guy that had first used the term shock and awe, were brought into the inner circle specifically because of their views. Several were people that in the states contributed to right wing websites and publications. The controlling element in the Republican party were itching for an opportunity to demonstrate how awesome the US Military were.

    People who parroted that line were promoted into policy decision making areas. I think the same happened with the Tories. Having a solid block of MP's that defined themselves only as opposed to Europe, any aspiring MP seemed to need to bow o the ERG grouping if they wanted to progress their careers. Theresa May was a good example. I wonder if she held such venomous attitudes to immigrants or was it simply the best way of progressing to the top.

    Boris is in an impossible position now, he has emboldened a rump of the party that is now almost drunk on it's own power. They have huge power with little responsibility, I believe they don't want to be ministers, I think they feel their in a perfect position.

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭ CJhaughey

    Not alone little responsibility, they are also actively starting to circumvent the law by trying to reduce the power of the courts to rein in their excesses.

    The UK is now heading towards a state where the parliament is answerable to no-one not even the highest courts in the land.

    Its a dangerous situation for any country to find itself in.

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,649 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985

    All of this again brings us back to the disaster that is FPTP. In a voting system like PR you would not get anything at the level of ERG or momentum because those MPs would have probably split years ago knowing they could still get elected but as we saw with UKIP any Tory defectors were ousted at the first election as UKIP candidates.

    These lobby groups within lobby groups within parties are a joke

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,071 ✭✭✭ Enzokk

    Johnson may not be long for No.10, with the Tories having lost the North Shropshire seat of Owen Patterson. To give context, Patterson won the seat with 62% of the vote and a 22 000 vote majority in 2019.

    Sunak is in California now as well and you have to wonder if that is to have as much distance from the stink from Johnson as you can get at the moment. But any leader taking over will have the same problems, unless they are from outside the cabinet. The current cabinet has stood by the messaging from No.10 about rules and parties, but this has had cut through to voters. Will anyone taking over be able to take control of the mess that they stood by for all this time and defended? Or will it just be someone else filling the seat and driving the ship towards disaster? Seeing Morduant speech up thread, my answer would be anyone taking over will just be continuing the same disaster policies.

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,479 ✭✭✭✭ Leroy42

    Johnson took over from TM, having served in her cabinet and voting for her deal, and not only did the voters wipe the slate clean, they gave the very same Tories that had presided over the mess of the previous 3 years, a whopping great majority.

    If Johnson does move on, it will be because the Tories are looking to wipe the slate clean and start anew, as if they hadn't been in power for the last 11 years.

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,649 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985

    People gave "getting Brexit done" the whopping majority as much as it being about a clean slate. The next election won't be about Brexit in the same way and will probably involve the 4th Tory PM since Brown was voted out so it might take more than a clean slate next time.

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,291 ✭✭✭ BluePlanet

    She didn't deliver that very well. The whole thing came out sounding very contrived and it kinda seemed like she doesn't really believe a word of it.

    Utter shite.

  • Registered Users Posts: 618 ✭✭✭ timetogo1

    Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 on Twitter: "+UPDATE+ Britain to accept the role of EU law & judges in Northern Ireland." / Twitter

    A good day to release that news quietly I think.

    One of the comments on that thread sums it up.

    "The white flag of Brexit victory waved again"

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,888 ✭✭✭ fly_agaric

    (Short) article commenting on UK move to exempt Ireland from its Customs changes in Jan next year:

    It's interesting what the UK is doing here.

    Maybe I'm getting sour & full of paranoia wrt. actions of this UK govt. but to me looks like their trade policy towards Ireland is following the immigration/citizenship policies they have which post Brexit prevent Ireland ever joining Schengen, and any deeper successor aggreements between Schengen members (because Ireland doesn't wish to lose these "benefits"). It's effectively a roadblock on Ireland getting deeper into that aspect of EU integration, we will need opt outs etc. in future.

    So they are cutting us out of the EU with respect to trade and giving special treatment, maybe in a hope of creating similar barriers over time (on other aspects of our EU membership...we won't wish to disrupt the "special" relationship with the UK). 

    Maybe redirection of Irish trade to the continent has worried them badly. Frost has mentioned our trade shifting (i.e. East-West + vice versa) which he obviously sees as still "their" trade in a sense despite the dispute in the 20s, as a problem for the UK which must be addressed immediately, not just the NI protocol issues.

    They also lose some of their best leverage over the EU (which is mainly through their ability to make Ireland suffer badly) the more we disconnect our economy from them so they are trying to stop or at least slow that down by allowing our exporters a benefit. They might need that leverage in future. Overall it's not really a good thing I think (apart from the short term benefits).

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,271 ✭✭✭ Gerry T

    I think its more a realisation that the UK buys a substantial proportion of their food from IRL and introducing tariffs on that trade would put the final nail in the tory coffin, or al least Johnson's PM role.

    From an Irish perspective this is great news, IRL remains in the EU and there is less tension with NI with free trade in one direction. There are no wedges placed between IRL and the rest of the EU, and Irish exporters have an advantage over most every other country exporting to the UK. The UK will stretch the patience of the EU but that doesn't affect us in IRL.

    It will be interesting to see if peoples attitudes to Johnson change, he's had such bad press it has to affect him.

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,888 ✭✭✭ fly_agaric

    Yeah it is "good news" on the face of it. As you say it is a problem for the EU though. We may not always be a beneficiary of countries trying to divide the EU on trade like this for whatever reason (e.g. see trade sanctions China is trying to impose on Lithuania only at the moment).

    I don't think there are any tariffs involved here, but their food imports from this country would be made slower/more difficult by new Customs requirements on 1 Jan and of course the Irish exporters may then be further encouraged to shift away from the UK to avoid red tape/problems. The UK has to import alot of food from somewhere in the end.

    As said I may be overly cynical. There's alot of possible reasons for this like the UK Customs not being ready, or not wanting to disrupt/slow food imports from a major supplier country (...but then they also import large amounts of food from other EU members like all the veg. from Spain/Netherlands, so why is Ireland singled out?).

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,382 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell

    I think that the NI Protocol plays a part in this. If they implement full customs between NI and GB, then that reinforces the need for customs between GB and NI, which undermines the 'bin the paperwork' cry from Johnson.

    If we want to go Schengen, we need NI to be in Schengen - so that is out short of a united Ireland.

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,819 ✭✭✭ RobAMerc

    does this mean we are effectively in the same boat as NI wrt trade to the UK and EU ?

    I assume WTO rules will put the kybosh on this.

  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 87,177 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Capt'n Midnight

    It is described as the first post-Brexit deal negotiated from scratch and not "rolled over" from trade terms that the UK enjoyed while in the EU.

    Oz is a country that's a close ally and China is boycotting food imports so needs a new market. UK farmers are not impressed as they won't be seeing much of that 0.08% GDP growth by 2035 ( that 0.006% annual growth will offset the negative aspects of Brexit )

  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 87,177 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Capt'n Midnight

    Looks they are coming around to the acceptance stage ?

    Cambridge professor of EU law Catherine Barnard said the suggestions floating around Whitehall for a solution over the European court of justice had merit and would effectively mean swapping article 12 of the Northern Ireland protocol for articles 169 to 174 of the overall withdrawal agreement.

    So no, they still at the bargaining stage and wanting to EU to compromise.

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,649 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,271 ✭✭✭ Gerry T

    Thats true, had to look and IRL is fourth largest country that the UK imports from, but we are not that important over all.

    It is a good question, why Ireland. Do they think by keeping IRL close they might see us leave the EU and keep ties with the UK, are they that deluded ! do they think their actions cause a smoke screen and division within the EU, 'divide and conquer' tactics, or do they feel giving way in NI, having a border in the Irish sea will be unforgiven at the next election. But either way if by then the economic performance in NI is far better than GB since brexit this yr, that will still be a big blow to the tory's, only a land border in IRL would prevent that, which doesn't explain the current course of action by this Govt. It will be interesting to see how this develops.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,649 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985

    They are doing it to Ireland because they don't have a solution to the corner they backed themselves into. This is essentially a climb down from the trigger art.50 BS