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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 26,548 Mod ✭✭✭✭ pixelburp


    Apart from the "nerd" bit, what makes you think a posh private schoolboy is some kind of disadvantage in the case of political ascension in the UK? I will grant you, there's an air of the inauthentic with his public persona - especially with his social media profile after he hired a media manager, so that could be the thing that does him in.



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 26,548 Mod ✭✭✭✭ pixelburp


    At first glance, that's a farcical amount of money - but compared with other mega-structures of this complexity is it at least comparable? Am thinking of those giant road bridges built in China etc.

    Wonder how much it cost to fund a feasibility study like this; something everyone and their mother knew was a complete waste of time, born from the spitball of a PM flailing for ideas to shore up a creaking union.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,252 ✭✭✭ yagan


    It was obviously only ever placation to Loyalists in NI as it was of zero benefit to the English Brexiter heartlands to fund a massive project linking one nation whose denizens are optional EU citizens to a Scotland that could well be realigned with the EU/EEA in the coming years.

    Manning a 500Km with nearly 300 crossing points in Ireland is of equally little interest to English Brexiters.

    Edit to add they already postponed checks on EU imports three times already and I won't be surprised if the next deadline in January gets postponed too.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 29,782 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    Why though? NI has no benefits for the Tory party. It has at most 18 MP's and none of those seats are flipping blue any time soon. Money spent on this is money that could have placate Johnson's northern voters instead.

    Was this all it was marketed as? They still need to ensure that no hard border appears on the island of Ireland anyway.



  • Registered Users Posts: 47 Mayfielder


    Johson's idea to conduct a feasibility study was backed by the Irish government at the time. The study has reported back as not being worth the cost and the idea has been shelved.

    Similar criticisms were made when the idea of the Channel Tunnel was first mooted. And there's an ongoing discussion about the costs and feasability of HS2. I see no fault in any government coming up with ideas for big infrastructure plans - it's how modern economies develop.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,700 ✭✭✭✭ Strazdas


    Should be remembered that Sunak is a hardcore Brexiteer - that immediately makes him suspect in my book (it seems nearly every dodgy type in English politics ended up on the Brexit side of the fence).



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 87,779 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Capt'n Midnight


    Has the UK paid France what they already promised yet ?


    In other news - something that will make the UK even less attractive to foreign workers.

    The new nationality and borders bill will allow the Home Office to remove British Citizenship without notice effectively denying appeals.

    Other proposed rule changes in the bill have already attracted criticism, including rendering claims from anyone arriving in the UK by an illegal route inadmissible, while criminalising them and anyone who seeks to save their lives, and giving Border Force staff immunity from prosecution if people die in the Channel during “pushback” operations.




  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 32,531 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Seth Brundle


    The bridge linking NI to GB was always a stupid idea and whilst the Irish may have said "knock yourself out" they did so whilst laughing quietly at the prepostery of it. The terrain is very different to the channel but more importantly are the thousands of tonnes of munitions dumped there by the Brits.

    By all means, come up with ideas but maybe think about them quietly to yourself before announcing them to the world!



  • Registered Users Posts: 47 Mayfielder


    It's only likely to make the UK less attractive to foreign workers who attempt to enter the country illegally. Those who apply through the correct legal channels have nothing to fear. In that respect the USA's attitude towards the many Irish " undocumented " workers is exactly the same.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 47 Mayfielder


    According to latest UK government figures - slightly skewed by Covid - there was a 19% increase in work-related visas issued to year end June 2021 compared to June 2020 but 7% fewer than the previous year.Skilled work, which accounts for 60% of work-related visas granted, saw the largest increase in visa numbers, up 16,775 or 19%. High value, Skilled worker, Temporary worker and Other work visas and exemptions routes all increased compared to the previous year.

    The idea that the UK is no longer attractive to legitimate applicants isn't really born out by the figures and especially by the thousands of people prepared to risk their lives every month to enter illegally across the channel - most of them men aged under 35 - to find employment.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 32,531 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Seth Brundle


    How many of those visas were for EU citizens who were forced to apply for a visa in order to continue working in the UK under the EUSS (as opposed to people who just arrived in the UK)?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,252 ✭✭✭ yagan


    Settlement visas.

    BTW, where did I say it was no longer attractive?

    I said it would be less attractive.



  • Registered Users Posts: 47 Mayfielder


    None.

    There were 172,045 work-related visas granted to people living outside the UK in the year ending June 2021. The EUSS is a settlement status scheme and totally different.

    5.2 million people have so far been granted settled status and the number granted in the year ending June 2021 is more than 3 milllion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,700 ✭✭✭✭ Strazdas


    Back to Brexit itself and Frost is still threatening to trigger Article 16 :

    https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1464271847797764101



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,456 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985


    The channel tunnel was linking London to Paris and HS2 upgrading London links to the other 2/3 biggest cities in England.

    A very different prospect to the building and long term upkeep involved in linking Belfast to Scotland which has no real world benefits



  • Registered Users Posts: 89 ✭✭ Maxface


    I don't read many things on Daily Mail but read the odd thing to see what way the wind is blowing at that time with certain events but I always look at the comments to get a real feel of the temperature between those readers. Recently the tide has turned massively against Johnson. It is very noticeable and like all things it was a slight turn from the Mail recently and now heavy noise against the Premier. It would not surprise me to see more articles that are semi against Johnson and the tide turning quite quickly. There are a number of hurdles coming up, Christmas and all the shopping and all goods unavailability etc, winter and the possibility of extreme temps and power costs and the current UK system with power providers, continued migrants and new checks on 01 of next year. I would not be surprised to see a push very soon but to me it is obvious that his time is up and Johnson will be gone.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,700 ✭✭✭✭ Strazdas


    Yes, definitely very noticeable that Mail readers have turned on Johnson in the last couple of months. Those right wing press columnists and on social media still defending him may well be going against the general opinion of their own readers / followers.



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  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 25,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭ looksee


    Might be better if he stayed in place and lost the next election for them. If someone even half competent or convincing takes over they might even get voted in again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 47 Mayfielder


    It's also very noticeable that Geordie Greig, who turned the Mail from pro to anti Brexit, has been ousted as editor and Paul Dacre - the original Fleet Street Brexiteer - has returned as Editor-in-Chief.

    It's also worth remembering that the UK is more than two years away from a likely general election.

    And there's also a large number of Tory MPs who owe their seats to Johnson's popularity at the last election.

    I'd also be delighted to read of any names in the current Tory front bench who anyone on here thinks can achieve the electoral success of Bozo.

    For all his faults Boris is a superb electioneer with a great popular touch.

    There is not a hope in hell the Tories will ditch him before the next GE.



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,325 ✭✭✭✭ Peregrinus


    This doesn't, on its own, establish that the UK is more attractive, or as attractive, to foreign workers as it was in the past. How many of those new visas were granted to someone who will simply replace a foreign worker who went home, and did not return? You need to subtract departures from arrivals to identify net increase or decrease in the foreign workforce, and if there has been a net decrease you can hardly cite that as evidence that the UK remains attractive.

    I will pass over in diplomatic silence your attempt to claim refugees seeking protection in the UK as foreign workers seeking employment in order to bolster your case. If your case needs that kind of bolstering, it isn't very strong.



  • Registered Users Posts: 89 ✭✭ Maxface


    I just feel it may be forced upon them rather than a push by an over eager front bencher. He may well become very hard to defend at some short point in the future.



  • Registered Users Posts: 47 Mayfielder


    The Tories are ruthless when it comes to getting rid of leaders perceived as election liabilities.

    I just don't see any viable alternative in their party at this stage.

    That could change, of course.

    Keep an eye on Reform UK, Farage's old Brexit Party.

    They're currently polling around 6%, only just behind the LibDems and Greens.

    If - and it's unlikely at the stage - Farage was to return to the fray they could begin to make serious inroads into Tory waverers.

    Remember, at the last election the Brexit Party didn't stand in any constituency where the sitting MP voted Leave.

    They gifted a significant number of votes to the Tories.

    Farage has been warning all year about the growing number of cross channel migrants and it's still a very big concern among Tory voters.

    I think it's this more than things like sleaze which will endanger Johnson.

    But I could be wrong.The next two years are going to be fascinating.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,700 ✭✭✭✭ Strazdas


    You're right about the growing concerns of English Tory voters on migration, but it is of course an entirely manufactured 'crisis'. Let's say 40,000 people crossed the Channel in a year : that would be the equivalent of about 3000 asylum seekers going to Ireland - hardly something that would cause the Irish state to collapse.

    But manufactured or not, it will be interesting to see where this whole debate goes and what impact it has on Johnson and the Tory Party.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,586 CMod ✭✭✭✭ Nody



    Boris is not going to achieve the same results even if he's PM at the time either; because the rallying call he could use ("Get Brexit Done") is no longer relevant and he'll have four years of worsening economics (it will take yet another hit come Jan 1st. 2022 with origin requirements etc.) and no one to blame it on (majority of people will not buy the "EU is punishing us" gag after four years after the "wonderful" trade deals that's suppose to compensate). The problem for Boris is he is charming if he's there in casual doses in an "Oh Boris" headline every so often kind of way but being the PM and not sorting things out as promised will be a anchor on his neck. The problem for Tories is that there's no way around the realities of Brexit and the ongoing, and constant, set of bad news it will keep generating. Brexit was the rallying call to win last election and it will be an anchor next election due to the effects of it and I could see a new PM elected to simply blame it all on Boris bad policies but this new PM will "sort things out". Could very well be Priti to hone in on the "anti immigration" vote as well (with bonus points for female PM and immigrant allowing to deflect criticism as racism/misogyny instead of answering the question).



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,700 ✭✭✭✭ Strazdas


    A YouGov poll yesterday showed that 51% of people think Brexit is 'going badly' with only 20% or so thinking the opposite. This is definitely intriguing and suggests the right wing press, Tory MPs, Brexit cheerleaders etc are losing the battle and losing control of the narrative (I guess it's literally impossible for them to cover up the growing evidence all around that their project is failing badly). How they handle the ongoing failure of Brexit is going to be one to watch.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,567 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    The problem with the migration issue is that it is now focussed on the cross channel inflatables filled dangerously with migrants desperate to get to the UK. The instinct of the Tories is to blame France, and use megaphone diplomacy to get the message across. This does wonders for the support Britain needs to keep the pressure on the EU to provide plenty of cake for the Brexiteers to both have and to eat. Is that how to win friends?

    Recently, France and Germany have both expressed strong support for the current NI Protocol, and for action to enforce it.

    Add in the fishing licences that are in dispute between France and UK, and Dover is beginning to look like it will be a lorry park before Christmas.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 470 ✭✭ farmerval


    There's definitely a bit of too much Boris is a bad thing. Like seeing a comedian with the same routine, it wears thinner with time. I think a bigger issue over time will be his cabinet of uselessness, they can't seem to get anything right, they won't be able to point to much positives in policy at the next election.

    It's easy to see Johnson moving ever more like Trump and sacking the likes of Patel if the migrant crossings continue; it's only inviting Farage to attack his right flank.

    I also suspect that at some stage Frost will draw sufficient retaliatory measures from the EU he'll also get the chop. Boris is happy for those buffoons to push the envelope as far as possible, but when the balloon bursts, Boris won't have their back, only for stabbing purposes. I think it's telling that Boris talks about the Protocol needing adjustments and improvements and Frost banging the table demanding what he knows he won't get.



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