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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)



  • Darmanin (IIRC) went on record this weekend on the back of the EU Ministers’ meeting over immigration, with a claim of €17m paid out by the UK out of the €67m (£50m) promised…when patrolling the French north coast reportedly costs the French tax payer €250m.

    I’m seeing a lot of Yorkshire-esque “calling a spade a spade” from French ministers about the UK atm, no doubt on instructions from Macron…

    …who will be taking the EU presidency in about 1 month’s time.

    I think the sudden, summary and very public cancellation of Patel’s invitation to that EU Ministers’ meeting over immigration, is very much the shape of diplomatic things to come, at least from France, for the next 6 months. Including for all things Brexit, whilst France presides the EU, especially as Macron co-temporously runs his presidential re-election race.

    UK keeps in line, things keep progressing. UK steps out of line, gets its nose instantly rubbed into it, hard. Works OK with puppies.

  • While I can see the political benefit in cosying up to brexit voters by blaming the ills of Brexit on the implementation rather than the principle of the thing, and while this is also true, I think it could end up being costly in the long run

    Sometimes bad ideas need to be completely defeated, rather than diluted, because when you dilute a damaging political ideology, that can end up with elements of that ideology seeping into your own party

    I'm not making a case for ideological purism, but the left should stand up for it's core principles, and if it's going to approach the EU, it should be in solidarity with others from the same political sphere

  • So the wine and spirits association are lying?

    Project Fear is a misspelling. It's project reality. Economy is weak, trade is dwindling and all that's grown, is hostility within and towards the UK. But please, more Tory talking points. It's worked so well in the past.

  • City's lost jobs and huge amounts of assets. But, I'm sure things will be better in 50 years per JRM.

    (among many). The good news is, a lot of those jobs are moving to Dublin. Of more concern are the assets being moved, the firms aren't all that up-front about it.

    FWIW, the # of Jobs in the article is 7400. Bank of England predicted 10,000 right after the referendum. And, this is the first year of full-on Brexit so we'll see.

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  • There are real problems being created by brexit. Those problems have been reduced by the continued pushback of the full effects (another significant impact due in Han 2022) such that Brexit still has been fully delivered.

    However, even with the pushback, business and individuals has seen the negative impacts. Hence the pushback in the first place as even the UK government accept the negative impacts.

    But, as usual, business will find a way. Tesco, for example, cannot afford to have no alcohol as they would lose huge business to competitors. Not just the booze sales. So Tesco will do what it can to avoid such a scenario .

    But that doesn't mean protect fear is wrong, just that people have found a way to deal with it. Possiblr outcomes were predicted, and many have come to pass.

    The most telling proof that Brexit is a disaster is that even now no-one can point out a single benefit. Or point to a time when it will all be worth it.

    The billions spent, the loss of diplomatic relationships, the time wasted that could have been spent dealing with other issues.

    All wasted on a failing idea that lives on solely on the basis that to stop now would be embarrassing.

  • Much like other direst consequences of Brexit, predictions about hundreds of thousands of City jobs vanishing overnight were predicated on a no deal outcome. Which, as we all know, did not happen - still less under the preparatory framework of the WA of December 2019 with the ‘go light for one year’ TCA started on 1/1/21.

    Rather, what did happen, continues to happen, and will continue to happen for the foreseeable future, as equally foretold (and chronicled since around 2019), is a slow bleed of high-value financial jobs tied with EU markets and trading activities, variously in retail and corporate banking, wealth management, (re)insurance and more.

    A good proportion of these relocated jobs did not actually go to Dublin, Paris or Frankfurt (but Dublin got the lion’s share, good for them), but went to NY or Singapore instead since, 3rd country for 3rd country, might as well take the opportunity of a restructuring forced by Brexit to reorganise for efficiency. Whether the EU27 gained or not is moot: the UK lost all the same.

    This bleeding of City jobs (and elsewhere, e.g. Leeds) will endure and, if not amplify, then stay at least constant, as the EU gradually repatriates ever more prerogatives in financial activities as time goes by, until such time as the UK financial jobs market reaches equilibrium based on zero (or close to) access to the EU financial markets. Latest example:

    The jobs themselves matter a lot less than the assets under management, transactions with which attract a substantial volume of taxes. On that particular score, GB plc is at least a $ trillion down by now, through asset exfiltration due to Brexit. This has been well chronicled in the FT and other MSMs.

    Sunak told Johnson that there is no more money to be had for his ‘levelling up’ agenda last week, so feel free to follow the non-money and find out how much less no.11 Downing St is getting out of the City now and for the foreseeable future, and maybe connect dots.

    Post edited by ambro25 on

  • David Frost has previously admitted the whys: this is why they're so dead set against the NI Protocol; 'cos once the dust settled, a successful Northern Ireland would show Brexit for the folly that it is. A perfect encapsulation within the UK itself. With Brexit vs. Without Brexit. The Tories have been lucky in many respects; lucky that within NI there lives a demographic who'd burn their own house down to appear loyal and eager Loyalists for the cause. Without them there'd never even be this ongoing tedium.

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  • Unless and until they upgrade the road to the port in Scotland there is no point in building a bridge or tunnel. There's a reason why most of the shipments to NI used to go through Dublin. Also a road bridge would have to be closed in bad weather which is much of winter.

    Permanent links to Sakhalin from Japan and Russia would be a much better investment, though you'd also have to upgrade the Baikal-Amur railway line too.

  • Wondering if there was anything to this, those more in the know might be able to tease this out or dismiss it.

    We know that Cross border trade has boomed, and that one aspect of this boom is an increase of NI "exports" to Ireland, and also a decrease of exports from Britain to Ireland!!

    Are thse things related, as in are qe seeing goods going from Britain to NI and then shipped down south, avoiding customs etc, the very thing the EU has been concerned about ?

    I know anecdotally of some b2b trade where companies are sourcing things from the UK via NI, so there has to be something to this ?

    Are we seeing the failure of the UK government implementing checks resulting in goods crossing the border that should not be ?

  • I'm not sure either side has the resources in place to know, either way.

  • I see where you're coming from. But "Brexitism needs to be completely defeated" is not the same thing as "Brexitism needs to be completely defeated immediately". This is simply not possible, partly because it is deeply entrenched in UK political culture, but also because, right now, I don't think the UK would be welcome back into the EU.

    It took a long time for the UK to get to this point; it will take a long time to get back from it. I think selling the idea that "the UK doesn't have to be permanently antagonistic to Europe and it would probably be a good idea if it weren't" is a good start. Once any kind of clsoeness with Europe becomes politically acceptable, and is practised, and has good results, then you open the way to considering whether a higher degree of closeness might be desirable, and some reflection on why the UK left the EU in the first place. The re-entry of the UK to the EU, if it ever happens, will be the end of a very long process.

    Post edited by Peregrinus on

  • I would say they are related. I haven't looked into the statistics that are available (from ONS or CSO) in any depth to see if that could be teased out at all either. However from above posted Guardian article:

    The decline in demand for the ferry services to Wales and Liverpool has also seen Northern Irish ports receiving a Brexit dividend, with freight volumes hitting “unprecedented highs in 2021”.

    Historically, Northern Irish hauliers have preferred the Dublin-Holyhead route as the quickest way to access markets in the south and south-east of England, but some have now eschewed the route “to avoid the new customs requirements involved between Ireland and UK ports”, the reports said.

    It has meant an uplift in traffic in Northern Ireland’s three ports, with a 15% rise in Belfast, 18% in Larne and 20% at Warrenpoint.

    (edit: Sorry misread there and see they meant Ireland-UK trade is now easier done via NI, but I think this applies as much, or even more in other direction).

    I kind of doubt (?) economic growth in NI or an increase in inputs to NI located businesses from UK, which then go into products that are sold onto Ireland or into wider EU can explain that. So, in agreement with their quote presumably alot of it is UK-Ireland stuff avoiding the full EU customs in Dublin or other ports in favour of the cursory checks from GB-NI under the semi-implemented NI Protocol.

    As far as my laymans understanding from the media goes, this is just form filling, maybe with some document checks by UK and no access allowed by UK (for EU) to any of this data to know what is really happening on the ground. Since no less a personage than the UK PM himself directed business to just put customs forms "in the bin", and the UK still can't do it's own customs on EU imports, I somehow doubt the rigour of this is very high.

    Post edited by fly_agaric on

  • Yeah, I suspect a lot of UK sourced goods destined for here are bypassing customs and going via NI!

  • Goods via Warrenpoint can be in ‘the South’ in 30 mins if required ( dual carriage way)and (mostly) bypass Newry to the *M1.

    *A1/N1/M1 but it’s the same road.

    Post edited by joeysoap on

  • In fairness the pound, since Sept 2020 has been gaining on the Euro.

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  • In Feb 2020 it was 83p (1.20) which it has yet to repeat so still trading in the same regions. The recent rise is likely caused by UK inflation given the expectation of a rise in base rate to combat the Brexit caused inflation.

  • .85 today.And I hope it gets better. ( the euro that is) petrol is cheaper in the North. No carbon tax.

  • In July 2015 it went as low as £0.69 to the euro. But that was before Brexit.........

  • As someone who rented a holiday apartment in Tenerife /Portugal/ Spain off an ( usually English owners , but not exclusively so) I am painfully aware that the pound was strong. I am also a border resident so I am definitely aware.

  • An article in the FT

    The US is delaying a deal to remove Trump-era tariffs on UK steel and aluminium because of Washington’s concerns about London’s threats to change post-Brexit trading rules in Northern Ireland.

    Brussels and Washington have repeatedly warned London that unilaterally changing the EU-UK accord that sealed Britain’s exit from the bloc in 2020 could threaten peace on the island of Ireland.

    And on and on, then ends

    The UK department of trade said: “We do not see any connection with this particular issue and the Northern Ireland protocol and it will in no way affect the UK’s approach. That is because significant changes are needed to the protocol in order to protect the Belfast (Good Friday) agreement and Northern Ireland’s place in the UK internal market.”


    They'll keep acting as if they're presiding over an empire that the sun never sets on, come what may.

  • That's fabulous. I imagined Biden would do that as it was an executive power - but great to see.

  • It's not just Biden that's driving this. Per the FT report, the administration is experiencing "pressure from Congress over the UK's threats" to trigger Art 16.

  • Sure- but I believe that these steel tariffs are a presidential power - some commentators were speculating that Trump could do a "deal" with Boris where whisky tariffs were dropped as a "Brexit benefit" for example- while bypassing the ways and means committee

  • Yes, and Biden - in theory - could do the same. He doesn't, of course, and my point is that the reason he doesn't is not just that he himself is not inclined to, but also that he is under pressure from sources in Congress not to. Even if he wanted to do something like this, therefore, he would burn some political capital in actually doing it, and that might be a price he would choose not to pay.

    The takeaway is that the US's stance towards the UK and its threats to the Protocol is not something driven just by Biden and his personal sentiments about Ireland; it has a much wider basis that that.

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  • As I understand the position, there are new boarder checks due to come into force on 1 January.

    Have the UK mad any preparations? I'm off the view that they will just postpone them and carry on as normal.