Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

salonfire

Christmas is over and the fear mongering over shortages did not materialise. There is a pattern of the media predicting wide spread disruption well in advance but eventually is proven wrong.

I'd say the new import rules will be the same. Businesses were already completing the declarations, but after the import. Now it must be in advance. So any issues with browsers are long resolved.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118437460#Comment_118437460

Weve always been at war with Eastasia.

Seriously like these issues are being reported by the business themselves and they say its not "long resolved"

timetogo1

Shortages didn't materialise as far as I'm aware. But the queues to get goods into the UK have. So the issues aren't "long resolved". It'll increase costs for the UK consumer or reduce choice as importers give up.

https://twitter.com/donnyc1975/status/1479075103669469190?t=RrLxXHNkcGvFs1al6Bvx8A&s=19

Then after all that queing you could be diverted to a checking area on the UK side.

https://twitter.com/MonkdWallydHonq/status/1479127324792610820?t=-7EDiqsi_lUyyMCjDg76fQ&s=19

And if the delays get very bad the head of HMRC has said they'll prioritse flow over compliance.

So shortages should not appear. It's not really a win though.

landofthetree

Among other main themes France wants to promote are the introduction of an EU minimum wage, a carbon tax on imported products and the reform of the EU’s fiscal rules.

France also wants to accelerate discussions between member states to find a consensus on the stalled overhaul of the bloc’s asylum system.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/france-takes-eu-reins-with-push-for-more-sovereignty-1238900.html?utm_campaign=article&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=web

No Brits to block all the madness.

Professor Moriarty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118438096#Comment_118438096

I'm very happy to see these policies introduced.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118438096#Comment_118438096

Bring on the "madness" I say.

Podge_irl

Shortages have materialised. There are pictures of sparse shelves being posted all over the place. They are not catastrophic but there has definitely been an impact.

Also having to fill a declaration before import rather than after is an absolute massive change in terms of supply chain flow.

salonfire

Another example of initial hurdles being smoothed out leading to record sales in sea food for one harbour town

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10380581/ROBERT-HARDMAN-Brexit-success-story-make-Remoaners-choke-sea-bass.html

kowloon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118439683#Comment_118439683

The title of that alone, not even mentioning the source, just scream high-quality journalism to me. Here's one from another pro-brexit paper:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/04/time-running-prove-brexit-not-historic-failure/

roosterman71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118439683#Comment_118439683

Have you read that? Some amount of anti EU, degrading EU customs officials and the like (standard fair for that "paper"), you get to the meat and gravy

So all the various elements of the Brixham fishing industry have sharpened up their act. They have ensured that all their paperwork and processes are up to speed

No mention of the extra costs of that paper work though they do seem to be doing well. Remember. nothing they are doing now couldn't be done pre Brexit. The only difference now is the amount of hoops they have to jump through in order to export.

salonfire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118439813#Comment_118439813

So if you don't like the news, have a pop at the source or the Title? I don't like the Mail either, but it does cite the actual people on the ground.

salonfire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118439833#Comment_118439833

Yes, but there is a difference is forecasting "having to jump through hoops" and entire meltdowns of industries. Neither the Leave or Remain sides have covered themselves in glory nor in any way accurately forecasted how it would pan out. Wildly overblown arguments by both camps.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118439871#Comment_118439871

Remain were much closer to right though

kowloon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118439842#Comment_118439842

You're being pretty selective with the news you're linking. The title sets the tone, the article is a propaganda piece for Brexiteers. It's not out to change anyone's mind.

Capt'n Midnight

The Express has this : It's a relief' UK scientists handed £17m lifeline as EU threatens to BAN them over Brexit

The EU's Horizon program is worth €100 Billion and the UK antics on the Northern Ireland Agreement that they negotiated and signed are a major stumbling block as are fishing licences and all the other Brexit disputes. Play silly games win silly prizes.

The Express also has this : Brexit Britain's studying abroad scheme was hailed as a success in the EU as it proves to be "cheaper and more global" than the bloc's Erasmus programme. Nexit campaigners in the Netherlands hailed the scheme, the article then wanders off onto Scottish Independence and how Scotland wanted to remain in Erasmus.

Finally Brexit betrayal! Boris sparks Tory fury as THREE key promises broken after EU split

getting the "EU's" VAT on energy bills lifted - file it with the rest of the "taking back control" stuff

the £22Bn a year on R&D - can kicked to 2026/27 where it will no doubt be promised again

and participating in the Horizon project - won't be holding my breath

Creating chaos and division to sell newspapers, but was surprised at the nod to Scottish Independence.

Budget: Scottish Government to receive record £46 billion a year, says Sunak That's £880 million a week for the NHS !

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118439871#Comment_118439871

But remain lost, there arguments were rejected. The only ones that count are those promises and forecasts made by the Leave side.

And none of them have proved correct. There is now no talk of actual benefits of Brexit, the only argument left is how much less than a complete disaster it all has turned out to be.

Strazdas

Truss sabre rattling about the Protocol in the Telegraph tonight, but it might just be for ERG consumption, hard to tell.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1479940140202135554

Leroy42

Truss really really means it though.

What can be read into that is that Truss's dinners with Coveney et al achieved nothing, since they are right back to exactly the same position.

looksee

Post removed, more suited to a different thread.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118441758#Comment_118441758

No insults.

reslfj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118442012#Comment_118442012

But "Making Brexit work" is an impossible task.  

You can get agreement with the EU on removing some of the UK self imposed problems especially those that can be changed via the 'NIP Joint Committee'. More flexibility in IT system, common SPS rules, and e.g. electronic handling of trade related papers is a possibility, I think. The basic cost of Brexit and trade will, however, not go away. 

But any substantially better deal for the UK (read England and Wales) than the current WA/NIP + TCA will end up with a formal or a de facto requirement for 27 Yes votes in the EU Council and a majority vote in the EU parliament.

This will not happen anytime soon, and will at least require the UK to accept the total EU acquis - trade or no trade. It may well require the UK (England) to reform its internal politics and accept e.g. future EU tax evasion laws and a more global taxation of all.

Many EU members simply won't have 'trouble makers' much closer the the EU. The 'Copenhagen Criteria' for entry to the EU is also going to be strengthen and rewritten into something, that must not only be valid at EU-entry, but must for new members be valid ever after.

The English has lost very much of the public goodwill among ordinary people in more EU countries, and this in itself will be very hard and expensive to reverse. Politicians get their power from the very same ordinary people.

The fact that the EU has not much noted any major costs of Brexit doesn't help any new deal with the UK.

To me it sounds like from another planet to talk about, what English voters can or will - the real decisions will be taken by EU member states in Brussels - and the UK can do little but accept it or continue to live in their increasing misery called Brexit. Next UK application will just have worse conditions for England and Wales.

Lars 

😀

PS! Stop talking about EFTA as a cure. 

The EFTA organisation does not have much relation with the EU. The members of EFTA are member of the EEA, where the EU is the real master or is CH who's 100+ guillotine linked treaties with the EU will not be repeated by the EU (much to slow and expensive to maintain).

BlitzKrieg

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118439683#Comment_118439683

Looking into it.

https://www.torbayweekly.co.uk/news/working-to-ensure-success-of-brixham-fishing-industry-8591150

Looks like Brixham is leaning heavily on being the largest port and being the one that was most prepared for brexit

Brexit was an eye opening start to the year but on the whole good preparation meant we got through without too many issues.

We do transport fish bought from Brixham Fish Market by EU buyers in Holland, France and Belgium directly into Europe

They were also fortunately pandemic proof too

In June 2019, we were lucky enough to have installed the first cloud-based online auction clock which was the first of its kind in the world - www.aucxis.com/en/e-trade - which saw Brixham Fish Market leap ahead of our competitors. Indeed, without knowing that we would face a worldwide pandemic, this has meant that all our buyers could sit in the luxury of their own homes during Covid-19 and buy their fish.

As we came out of lockdown and restrictions were lifted, fish prices began to rise.

A far leap away from the daily mail article attacking work from home 'grafters' the business was set up to work with the restrictions of the pandemic internationally.

but the larger number of fish caught bumper year reports are a bit misleading

Also Brexit gave us an opportunity to sell fish from along the South Coast as fishermen looked for other ways to sell their fish which was previously exported direct into the EU.

In June, we began transporting fish to Brixham from as many as 15 ports along the south and south east coast, and even from Wales.

Sounds to me that its not that the size of the catch is increasing but that the fishing in the south and south east coast in centralizing around Brixham. Instead of 15-20 small ports and harbors supporting these fishing communities they're all going to the one market that was both fortunate and pro active enough to

A) secure a direct route into the EU exclusively for them.

B) introduce new technology that has proven fundamental in tackling the pandemic

This can still be a good thing, perhaps its what the fishing industry needed to do, but as a brexit benefit 'shrug' I think it comes to your own personal politics in a lot of ways, a big part of the leave campaign's rhetoric was to protect smaller fishermen in the UK and here is brexit pushing most of the trawlers in the south coast all into one agents control. To be fair to them an agent clearly with his head screwed on right but still it's not a clear brexit win.

EDIT

yeah a quick look for older articles I spotted this little bit in a guardian piece on brixham

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/nov/01/i-wish-id-voted-to-stay-in-brixham-fishers-on-the-cost-of-brexit

Lowic Farnham, 31, the skipper of the fishing boat Sanderling, has relocated from Jersey to Brixham because of the wider implications of Brexit. “Since Brexit, we’ve been shafted,” he said.

Previously, Jersey fishers could head straight into French ports, but since Brexit they are required to return to Jersey, narrowing the window in which they can fish.

yeah Brixham is sort of booming but off the collapse of fishing in other parts of the UK

Enzokk

What was that definition of insanity? I guess Truss doing the exact thing that led to Frost leaving seems to fall within this category. Her quotes is just a rehash of the same old argument,

'"But let me be clear, I will not sign up to anything which sees the people of Northern Ireland unable to benefit from the same decisions on taxation and spending as the rest of the UK, or which still sees goods moving within our own country being subject to checks.

"My priority is to protect peace and stability in Northern Ireland. I want a negotiated solution but if we have to use legitimate provisions including Article 16, I am willing to do that."'

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2022/0109/1272620-brexit-northern-ireland-protocol/

So we are back where Brexit fell down under May and before Johnson sold NI down the river. I understand the frustration from Sefcovic really, he says it best,

'Last week, Mr Šefčovič warned that "the foundation of the entire deal" brokered between the UK and the EU would be jeopardised if Ms Truss takes the drastic step.

"This is a very distracting element in the discussions. You try to achieve something together and - bam - there's the threat of Article 16 again," he told German newspaper Der Spiegel.

"It touches on the fundamentals of our relationship.

"The Northern Ireland Protocol was the most complicated part of the Brexit negotiations, and it is the foundation of the entire deal. Without the protocol, the whole system will collapse. We must prevent that at any cost."'

On Labour and their plan to make Brexit work, we have to be realistic that there is still a substantial of the electorate that has been groomed to believe that the EU is the enemy and if Labour proposed to rejoin it would cost them votes. They are not in a position with FPTP to go down this route so the next best thing, make it work. It means as much as "Get Brexit Done" but it allows them to be clear without needing to be specific and get bogged down in the details.

It was the details that cost Remain, Labour would do well to stay away from making the same mistakes again.

peter kern

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118439871#Comment_118439871

well it does sound most ports around this one are doing not well at all since boats form far away go to this port in the paper

that success is not brexit their success seems to start to use modern technology before brexit and be better prepared than the other ports for the problems that arise form brexit ,

Fair play to them for being prepared. It is a very localised success, but one nonetheless.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Let's not rehash the debate from 5 years ago please. It's been done to death.

Mr.Nice Guy

The journalist Sam McBride had an article recently on the possibility of the DUP engineering a crisis over port checks.

https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1479735761708670977

I wonder are the comments from Truss part of a coordinated effort by the ERG and DUP to lay the groundwork for justifying the triggering of Article 16. She will need the ERG types for her own leadership ambitions. Create the problem, and then claim that only you can fix the problem. Hope that the US swallows it.

murphaph

Very risky given the EU seems to have weathered brexit much better than the UK and many in the EU side fear a no deal/tear up the TCA a heck of a lot less now than a few years ago, simply because we know the UK has shown it will wave stuff through fairly readily.

farmerval

It's quite stunning how poorly the UK has played it's hand in agreeing a deal with the EU. Trying to engineer concessions now when it's clear they're unable to enforce restrictions on EU goods coming to Britian is incredible. It really is sticking your finger in your pocket to pretend you have a gun.

Very Donald Trump negotiations, bellicose, no notion about facts or details, willing to agree to anything once you think it makes it look like you won. That kind of nonsense won't wash with any serious trading group. The US would make such mincemeat of the UK in a trade agreement, and the Tories would lap it up, bullshit about the special relationship etc etc.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118446237#Comment_118446237

The good news for the DUP is that the New Decade, NewApproach means ministers can stay in office for weeks and weeks if the Assembly is suspended. And that would take us to the Assembley elections on 5th May.

The bad news for the DUP is that in 2017 28% voted DUP, now only 16% are largely committed to doing so now. 9% have gone to the TUV and 3% to the UUP. An additional 6% more are toying with the idea of switching to TUV and a further 6% to the UUP.

If Stornmount is collapsed then it like the first comment says it may not be coming back and that makes a border poll more likely. Whatever about Boris giving Liz the poison chalice, would he stoke the fires in NI in the political game to keep his power within the Conservative party ?