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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 29,024 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha

    On the concept, certainly not but they'll not wait one second to screw the Tory party over if it means good headlines and sales.

  • Registered Users Posts: 7,698 ✭✭✭ cml387

    The right leaning papers would never abandon the Tory party (with the notable exception of The Sun who backed Tony Blair in 97, but rapidly returned to the fold thereafter).

    What they would do is turn on the leader, and only then if he/she is an electoral liability.

  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 29,024 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha

    In this particular incarnation of the party, they are one and the same. The closest thing there are to principled Tories are those who cowardly abstained in controversial votes. It's like a feudal court where positions are handed out based on loyalty and little, if anything else.

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,978 ✭✭✭ storker

    They've probably decided that Boris is now too much of an embarrassment (even for them) and are sharpening knives, and Brexit looks like the best stone too whet them on. But after Boris has been (metaphorically) chucked in the Thames with it around his neck, I wouldn't be surprised if they revert to cheerleading Global Britain and Taking Back Control and chuck Brexit's economic failure down the memory-hole.

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,978 ✭✭✭ storker

    @Leroy42 "So there was never a need to work out a what if scenario such as Galileo, as it was always assumed that it would never come to pass."

    And it might not have been if the UK-not-in-EU-but-in-EU-wonderland had come to pass, which is what was being sold pre-referendum. Then there was the handbrake turn in the direction of a hard Brexit and it was too late to discuss the new set of issues it presented. Unless of course there had been another public vote on it but they couldn't countenance that because "democracy".

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,051 ✭✭✭ KildareP

    Whoever replaces Johnson won't be able to counteract reality, though. Who'd want to take over the office of PM right now?

    Johnson's ability, thus far, is being able to give the impression he was "Getting Brexit Done" when he was doing anything but. Throw GB-NI paperwork in the bin, he says assuredly, as he signs into law the very systems underpinning the need for said paperwork.

    The fact he wasn't "Getting Brexit Done" is now starting to catch up, and fast.

    And blaming the big bad EU for disregarding Global Britain would have worked if it wasn't for the fact he and his wider party has been caught blatantly disregarding the very rules and regulations they themselves were bound to abide by. Can't blame the EU for that.

    What can a new leader do differently, if not admit Brexit has not worked out well for the UK and the party must clean up its act?

    Their first achievement would be to likely cause an irreversible split through the very centre of the Conservative party as they'll have to swing one way or another to carve a way forward.

    Johnson was widely thought to have taken the shortest premiership in history title. Whoever takes over now will be doing so at a time when the Conservative party is damaged, a lot of the EU trade exemptions are about to expire and the threat of Art 16 and an ensuing trade war becomes every closer, and Covid looks dead set to take off again.

    That's one hell of a hill you could very quickly find yourself dead on as the new PM...

  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 87,032 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Capt'n Midnight

    It's to fund UK students abroad. This means dealing with each country's individual rules and regulations, lots and lots of different new processes.

    But it's being done by a outsourcer that has spectacularly failed to deliver on hiring and training people for the armed forces, following well defined processes that go back hundreds of years. They got £2.3Bn for that.

    Now they're only getting £6.9m for to look after the students.

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,414 ✭✭✭✭ Strazdas

    Indeed, it's hard to see how the 'regime' can change tack, even under a new leader. It's completely dominated by Brexiteers / right wing English nationalists (Chris Patten made this point yesterday in an interview, saying it's not a Conservative Party he recognises).

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,213 ✭✭✭ yagan

    Anyone I've seen sporting a copy of the Express in England looked bewildered.

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,756 ✭✭✭ McGiver

    I think the Express article is not Express turning away from Brexit but Express turning away from Johnson. Preparing the ground for a new shiny Tory replacement.

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,414 ✭✭✭✭ Strazdas

    I get the impression that Frost has climbed down in private on the ECJ, but doesn't want the Brexit supporting public to know. Note how this emerged in the midst of all the Johnson furore.

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,511 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985

    It's almost like Brexiters are more susceptible to lies

  • Registered Users Posts: 23,325 ✭✭✭✭ Peregrinus

    The biggest common factor is likely to be age - older people are more likely to have voted for Brexit, and of course they are also dramatically more likely to die of Covid.

  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 32,298 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Seth Brundle

    Looks like Patel has changed the rules and is now looking for the 2.3 million EU citizens living in the UK to have to reapply for settled status (paywalled)...

    Originally the UK agreed with the EU that its citizens could become settled if they lived in the Uk for five years continuously - they would have a pre-established status. Now those EU citizens will need to reapply for settlement status at the end of the five-year period for which they got a right to stay. 

  • Registered Users Posts: 17,653 ✭✭✭✭ Ads by Google

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,907 ✭✭✭ correct horse battery staple

  • Registered Users Posts: 23,325 ✭✭✭✭ Peregrinus

    This is unfair. Older people's higher death rates from Covid are not due to ignorance. They are due to being old.

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,907 ✭✭✭ correct horse battery staple

    Older people who ignore this ^ and don’t get vaccinated (actively antivax) and ignore a million and one reasons brexit is a bad idea are ignorant

    there are plenty of areas in Europe with older populations but a fraction of covid death rate than UK

  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 87,032 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Capt'n Midnight

    AFAIK that was always the case for those who got pre-settlement, IIRC it was the right to remain until you qualified for settled status rather than automatic granting of it.

    However, not all those that applied for EUSS (especially through agencies) were given the correct status so some people probably have the right to remain but were only awarded the temporary extension.

    And there's 348,100 people still waiting to get a decision on settlement (5%)

    Decisions :

    Settled 52% (3,103,900) EUSS

    Pre-settled 41% (2,485,100) - This will include people who should have Settled status.

    Refused 3% (194,400)

    Withdrawn or Void 2% (108,900)

    Invalid 2% (99,400)

    As an example of how the system is run nearly 90% of appeals are successful compared to other HO reviews of typically 3.4%

  • Registered Users Posts: 30,544 ✭✭✭✭ listermint

    Confirmed what was always assumed..... UK rolling back on more items that they are supposed to be well advanced on

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,756 ✭✭✭ McGiver

    Frost seems to believe there are negotiations about the NIP ongoing.

    There are no negotiations.

    There are technical implementation talks.

    It looks like the UK regime will simply ignore implementing the protocol and keep "negotiating".

    I think the French and the Germans will lose patience very soon if this is going to carry on like this.

    The EU legal action prepared earlier this year as a reaction to the UK not implementing parts of the protocol in timely manner will be revived pronto...

  • Registered Users Posts: 23,325 ✭✭✭✭ Peregrinus

    But the higher death rates in areas of the UK with high rates of elderly residents are not due to elderly residents being unvaccinated - vaccination rates in the UK are high, especially among the elderly. They are due to the elderly being old.

    I think you'll find the pattern is replicated in other countries - districts that have a higher proportion of elderly residents also have a higher Covid death rate.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,822 ✭✭✭✭ CJhaughey

    I remember figures of 50k Customs officers being required Pre-Brexit to deal with the Post-Brexit bureaucracy and forms.

    As far as I can see there have been no additional recruitment campaigns for this small army of people so presumably until the positions are filled and there are people on the ground that are able to carry out the required checks then the can will continue to be kicked down the road.

    At this stage the smugglers paradise must be extremely attractive to all kinds of criminal as the likelihood of being caught is minimal in the extreme and profits must be immense. So much for taking back control...