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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 68,333 ✭✭✭✭ seamus


    It's not true.

    2017/2018 was a particularly harsh 'flu season, which saw 255 deaths amongst confirmed 'flu cases.

    Caveat here is that testing for influenza has never been anywhere close to the same level as we are now testing for Covid. Meaning that many 'flu deaths will likely fly under the radar because they're elderly people who just die without ever going to the doctor. But there is no way that a typical 'flu season sees 1,000 'flu deaths where 75% go unrecorded.

    You can see a report for 2017/2018 here. One other thing that becomes apparent when you look at the report is that there is nothing new about any of the numbers or methods that are being used to track covid. It's all being tracked in the same way that diseases have been tracked for years, so it can't be argued that it's being made up as it goes along. The likes of Nolan have been doing this analysis for years, they are experts in this field. While their projections may prove wrong (nobody has a crystal ball), it's beyond arrogant to question their interpretation of the data unless one has expertise in the area.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,015 ✭✭✭ Penfailed


    'That poster' was correct. The poster you are quoting is incorrect. You should try paying attention.

    Gigs '21 - Stendhal Festival (July), Stendhal Festival (August), [s]Liam Gallagher & Idles[/s], King Kong Company, Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs, The Undertones, And So I Watch You From Afar

    Gigs '22 - And So I Watch You From Afar, Teenage Fanclub, Mogwai, Stendhal Festival, The Fratellis, Clutch, Kurt Vile & The Violators, The Cure



  • Registered Users Posts: 652 ✭✭✭ Quags




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  • Registered Users Posts: 41,206 ✭✭✭✭ SEPT 23 1989




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,457 ✭✭✭ floorpie


    Yeah. Then went on to talk about hand washing etc. being important.

    The general vibe seemed to be a move towards personal responsibility, i.e. you should consider your own underlying illnesses before going out even if you're vaccinated.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,333 ✭✭✭✭ seamus


    People with relevant masters and/or PhDs, by definition have expertise in the area. I'm talking about the armchair MS Excel experts and the Eddie Hobbses of this world who think that any kind of experience analysing numbers entitles them to disagree with epidemiologists about epidemiology.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,463 ✭✭✭ Russman


    I agree they've made a mess of it. The communication has been appalling. I think if the cert is required, that should be it, no restrictions when you're inside.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,947 ✭✭✭✭ Dempo1


    He did but to be fair in the context, its one tool in the armoury of measures to fight transmission etc

    Is maith an scáthán súil charad.




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,909 ✭✭✭ MOR316




  • Registered Users Posts: 31,131 ✭✭✭✭ is_that_so


    TBF it is quite hard to model the completely yo yo nature of cases and hospitalisations. They may get cases right as we are on the cusp of their predictions but hospitalisations look like complete guesses. It's not a problem in its own right but it is at the core of their advice to government.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,215 ✭✭✭ The Big Easy


    Do you know what ranting is? Although your posting style is certainly more of a tirade.

    Have you watched Shutter Island? Had to laugh yesterday when someone intimated you were like the Leonardo Di Caprio character, deludedly investigating and making sense of your own asylum.



  • Registered Users Posts: 593 ✭✭✭ DarkJager21


    Yes, because comparing getting a vaccine and the Nazi persecution of jews is completely original and logical 🙄



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,462 ✭✭✭ growleaves


    Contra the cult of micro-specialism, up until recently work from one branch of science was (theoretically) meant to be verifiable from other branches.

    Epidemiology as a mystery cult which other scientists can't even begin to look at is just political smoke and mirrors, usually from people not in the sciences themselves.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,015 ✭✭✭ Penfailed


    Gigs '21 - Stendhal Festival (July), Stendhal Festival (August), [s]Liam Gallagher & Idles[/s], King Kong Company, Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs, The Undertones, And So I Watch You From Afar

    Gigs '22 - And So I Watch You From Afar, Teenage Fanclub, Mogwai, Stendhal Festival, The Fratellis, Clutch, Kurt Vile & The Violators, The Cure



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,842 ✭✭✭✭ charlie14


    I genuinely have yet to meet anyone who liked being in lockdown or who are looking forward to a return.

    There may be a few in here who will back the government no matter what, but then that is the same with diehard party supporters on practically everything and the diehard supporters of the opposition who will criticise everything a government does regardless.

    If there are some of those diehard supporters on here then at least we have balance with the posters that constantly predict dates for another lockdown and when that fails to materialise move on to another predicted date.

    If there actually are some on here who like lockdowns, with all these predictions it looks as if some may be from the prediction corner where it would mean they could say "see I was right".



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,824 ✭✭✭ Red Silurian


    The latest on live events

    Allowing people to stand at live events could involve some limit on capacity, along with both ticketing and Covid-19 cert requirements.

    Less ridiculous than before at least. No surprise that it's taking them this long to decode what Martin said on Tuesday



  • Registered Users Posts: 975 ✭✭✭ Parachutes


    He will be when you won’t be able to leave 5km radius from your home shortly.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 543 ✭✭✭ Hardyn


    There is way unfortunately. We don't investigate or test for Flu to near the same extent as Covid. It's also complicated by the fact that many deaths are from secondary infections and not attributed to Flu directly. A report from the UK a few years ago estimated the annual number of deaths to be about 10-25k per year. Adjusted for our population that's somewhere between 700-1800 deaths annually. So it's very plausible we miss quite a lot of them.

    That's not attempting to downplay the burden of COVID as opposed to avoiding downplaying that of Flu.




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