Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Saturday, 28 August, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain the same, warm, dry and in areas away from the cloudier north, sunny, with light to moderate east-northeast breezes.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be similar to yesterday with some fairly widespread cloud and isolated light rain in the north, a cooling sea breeze with some fog or mist making slight encroachments on land near the east coast, and otherwise quite warm with hazy sunshine for large parts of the central, western and southern counties where highs close to 24 C again. Highs under cloud or in sea breeze zones could be more like 17-19 C.

TONIGHT will be clear in many areas with some fog or mist developing, but perhaps more cloudy in parts of the north and east. Lows 6 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will continue much the same, as a very slow cooling trend continues that will see each day perhaps a degree cooler than the previous day. Highs around 23 C are likely in the same areas highlighted for warmth today, and around 18 C in parts of the north and east.

From MONDAY to FRIDAY of next week a very slow cooling trend but otherwise little change in the weather pattern with the west, central and inland south counties continuing to enjoy temperatures in the low 20s even by end of the week, while parts of the north and east will perhaps cool slightly more to around 16-18 C. These patterns rarely change in some sort of lock-step with every location always the same each day, slight variations of pressure and wind will tend to create some variations in how strong the east coast sea breeze becomes each day, and how extensive any northern cloud might prove to be. At times I suspect the south coast may come in for more frequent marine cloud effects. Nights are likely to get slightly cooler as the air mass modifies slightly, and some readings as low as 3 to 7 C are possible later in the week, in the usual cool spots in the north central inland counties.

Once this fine spell breaks down, the Atlantic will bring in some cloud and showers, but there are suggestions now that remnants of this dry spell could persist well into the new month and perhaps through the weekend of 4-5 September before there is any real change in the pattern.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy with passing showers off to the south and north at times, never dropping any rain here. It was rather cool with a high of about 17 C. The big weather story is Hurricane Ida which has crossed western Cuba overnight losing very little of its growing strength there, and looking very ominous for a landfall within 36 hours in Louisiana and possibly a direct hit on New Orleans (slightly to the west is the favoured track but if that were to be only 20-40 miles New Orleans would be in a bad location for strong winds and storm surge). Other possible tropical storms are being closely watched but no named storms yet.

Monday, 30 August, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 30 Aug to 5 Sep 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal.

-- Rainfal will average about 50 per cent of normal; most of that will come next weekend so it will be largely dry for the first five days.

-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal, with rather extensive cloud sometimes breaking in some areas to reasonable but not overly lengthy sunny spells.

-- Winds will finally begin to return to the moderate range late in the interval and will reverse direction from easterly to westerly around then.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, highs for most 17 to 20 C, but could reach 22 C where sunshine more prolonged.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and a bit cooler with lows 8 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with highs 17 to 21 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue dry, the cloud may reposition more into the south allowing for some sunshine further north. Lows 5 to 9 C and highs 17 to 21 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will become mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain developing, lows near 10 C and highs near 18 C.

By SUNDAY there could be rather blustery westerly winds and heavy showers, lows near 9 C and highs near 17 C.

After that disturbance passes, another high is going to try to form over the region, it will have a frontal zone embedded in it which may lead to outbreaks of light rain in south-central counties, but there should be some sunshine at times too, with highs perhaps edging back up to near 20 C.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and pleasantly warm with a high near 25 C. The town is being over-run by bears coming in after a very poor season (for them) in terms of natural food sources, so the local gardens and fruit trees have their interest. What's unusual is that a grizzly was spotted as well as the usual more common black bears that are native to our nearby forested mountains. The grizzly must have been displaced by fires from its more likely habitat about 150 kms to our north in more rugged terrain.

However, this was nothing compared to the problems faced in southeast Louisiana including greater New Orleans, as Hurricane Ida really ramped up and moved a long way inland before weakening very much (thanks to all the swamps and storm surges changing "land" back into more or less shallow ocean). There will be some tremendous inland rainfalls now adding to the many problems such as widespread power outages, damage to roofs and storm surge flooding. Meanwhile, TD 11 became Julian and that's already done as a tropical system; TD 10 will have to wait a day or two to get its name and a new disturbance coming out of Africa could get the next name in the list ahead of it, so TD 10 may become the "L" storm.

Wednesday, 1 September, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 September 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.

-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal.

-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.

-- Winds will pick up slightly although not getting much over 30 km/hr at any point.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and local drizzle or sea fog near coasts. Highs 17 to 21, likely warmest inland north, west and midlands. Winds northeast 30-50 km/hr at times.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with lows 8 to 12 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue much the same with mostly cloudy skies with a few brighter intervals at times, and localized drizzle or sea fog. Winds southeast 20-40 km/hr. Lows 8 to 12 C and highs 17 to 20 C.

SATURDAY will bring variable cloud, a few outbreaks of light rain near Atlantic coasts especially later in the day, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 or 19 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY are a bit of a toss-up with guidance continually changing on details of how a weak system to the south eventually interacts with the decaying high pressure. Some runs have shown considerable rainfall in central and northern counties, others are much lighter. For now, we'll go with mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain or showers, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

The regime next week is only slightly different from this week, with rather inactive weather patterns, the odd localized shower, and temperatures near normal values. There are hints of a more active weather pattern by mid-month.

My local weather on Tuesday was mostly cloudy and cooler by several degrees than recent days, high only 15 C. Some light showers are on the local radar although it hasn't rained right here yet. While post-tropical Ida continues to slog along through the southeast U.S. with locally heavy rainfalls, weak Kate will likely not last very long in the subtropical Atlantic, but tropical depression 12 near west Africa promises to evolve into a hurricane in the western Atlantic within five days.

Friday, 3 September, 2021 __ __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 Sept 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, higher in the west and north.

-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal (which is now around 4 hours a day).

-- Wind speeds will remain quite light most days.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, isolated drizzly showers possible in west Munster and parts of Leinster, and highs 17 to 21 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast and mild with fog and mist at times, lows 10 to 13 C.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals in the southeast mainly, and possibly east Ulster. Some light rain will develop over the Atlantic coastal districts. Other areas are likely to stay dry. Highs 17 to 20 C.

SUNDAY will see a few showers moving from west Munster and Connacht towards the midlands and Ulster. Parts of the southeast are likely to remain dry. Skies will be cloudy with sunny breaks, and it will feel rather warm and humid, lows near 13 C and highs 19 to 21 C.

MONDAY will become partly cloudy in the south with a few more outbreaks of light rain moving east through Ulster. Lows near 14 C and highs 19 to 22 C.

The rest of next week is looking quite warm and settled with southeast breezes, probably some localized sea fog or mist and temperatures somewhat warmer in the west and central counties with local maxima reaching 23 C possibly, coastal areas 17 to 19 C. Some showers may break in for a time around mid-week from another rather weak system working to break down the blocking high pressure but it keeps rebuilding after every slight blow it takes.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny with a few afternoon clouds, the sort that look threatening but have little vertical extent because of subsidence forcing the tops to stay below the freezing level, so we had very dramatic looking skies at times without any actual risk of a storm. Highs were around 22 C after quite a cold start, heard people talking about frost in lower lying places near town but no evidence of that in town.

Meanwhile what's left of old Ida went hammering through Atlantic Canada on its way to an eventual demise up around Greenland. New kid on the block Larry is flexing his muscles in the central tropical Atlantic and could be tangling with Bermuda around this time next week, en route to a severe landfall in Newfoundland possibly, and ending up near the Norwegian Sea. There may be a breezy day when that happens in about ten days' time but not seeing much potential for a memorable sort of post-tropical outcome (yet anyway).

Sunday, 5 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 Sep --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal.

-- Rainfall will average 25 per cent of normal.

-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal.

-- Wind speeds will remain rather light.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy, the best chance for any sunny breaks will be in the south and east. A few showers will develop across parts of Connacht spreading into the north midlands and Ulster. Amounts of 3-5 mm are expected. Highs 18 to 21 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy in the south to overcast north with occasional rain in Ulster, lows near 13 C.

MONDAY will see the rain fragmenting to showers and moving out of east Ulster, otherwise, a fairly nice day with some breaks in the overcast appearing and possibly some longer hazy sunny intervals later, highs 20 to 23 C.

TUESDAY will bring hazy sunshine except for more cloud near some coasts, in particular north and northwest, with highs 23 to 26 C for most, about 18 to 20 C in cloudier areas.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 14 C and highs near 23 C.

THURSDAY will become more overcast with heavier showers possible, lows near 13 C and highs near 19 C.

FRIDAY will see some clearing as high pressure rebuilds from the northwest, while rather cool it should be bright and pleasant, highs near 18 C.

Another warmer spell is expected to follow and the regime looks fairly robust and perhaps able to hold off Atlantic storms for a good part of the month. Hurricane Larry is expected to be near Bermuda by this coming Thursday and just south of Newfoundland on Saturday 11th, then models show it weakening considerably and meandering around in the central Atlantic visiting the Azores (as a much weakened tropical storm perhaps) then the remnants trying to break through but being forced north towards Iceland instead.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny with considerable haze, and rather warm with highs near 24 C. New moon is approaching so skies are quite dark and I had a good view of Jupiter and Saturn earlier. The new moon is timed for the night of Monday-Tuesday (early on the 7th).

Tuesday, 7 September, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 Sep --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal.

-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, most of this on Thursday.

-- Sunshine will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal.

-- Wind speeds will remain rather light.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring hazy sunshine except for more cloud near some coasts, in particular north and northwest, with highs 23 to 26 C for most, about 18 to 20 C in cloudier areas.

TONIGHT clouds will increase from the south, and some showers could arrive by dawn in parts of Munster. Lows near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 14 C and highs near 23 C.

THURSDAY will become more overcast with heavier showers or thunderstorms possible, rainfalls generally 10-20 mm but possibly higher in parts of the midlands to south Ulster, lows near 13 C and highs near 19 C.

FRIDAY will see some clearing as high pressure rebuilds from the northwest, but there is a chance of some isolated showers developing in Ulster and Leinster mainly, and while rather cool it should be bright and pleasant, with lows near 11 C and highs near 18 C.

The WEEKEND will continue partly cloudy to sunny with near normal temperatures, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 17 to 19 C. High pressure will build up to the north cresting over Scotland by about Monday. This will bring a somewhat cloudier southeasterly flow by Monday 13th and Tuesday 14th. One detail that has changed in the guidance (for now) is that Larry heads north after sideswiping southeast Newfoundland, and the Azores low will have to mount its campaign without Larry's weak contribution now, but the outcome looks the same for Ireland anyway with a gradual increase in cloud and moisture mid-week followed by a return to Atlantic frontal systems, but temperatures will rarely fall much below average by the looks of this pattern, and the month could average about one degree above normal throughout.

My local weather on (Labour Day) Monday was sunny and rather warm again, with patchy high cloud at times. Highs reached about 25 C. Heat is building up again over most of the western and central regions of North America, I don't expect anything too severe around here as the core of the upper level support remains down over the deserts and the Great Basin for now. We may get closer to 30 C at some point though. It is back into the 42-45 C in the desert southwest and this heat is spreading into the central plains states.

Thursday, 9 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 September --

-- Temperatures will average about 1.5 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will average near normal in some parts, with today a major contributor to the totals, but a new development may bring significant rain to the south by Sunday.

-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

-- Winds will continue rather slack, picking up gradually next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and muggy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, locally heavy downpours especially in parts of the midlands, west and Ulster could bring 20-30 mm more rain there, otherwise 5-10 mm more widely. Highs 18 to 21 C.

TONIGHT will become rather foggy or misty in areas that have seen heavier rainfalls, with lows near 13 C. Some further showers or thunderstorms are possible.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, humid with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs 16 to 18 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY is now under some threat of a moderate to heavy rainfall moving into the south and southeast, from the distant low pressure northeast of the Azores, which seems like it might spin off a satellite disturbance heading for Ireland. This is not yet totally confirmed however, so check later forecasts if you were hoping for a more pleasant day. It still might turn out fairly decent in parts of Connacht and Ulster further away from this new low. Temperatures will be steady 12 to 16 C.

MONDAY will see partial clearing with a few leftover showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

The balance of next week may be rather breezy and unsettled with the Atlantic gradually becoming the dominant influence in more of a west to east progression of weather events. ... Larry is going to be moving past Bermuda later today but far enough east that the result should be tropical storm force northwest winds there. Southeast Newfoundland is bracing for a more direct hit of a cat-1 intensity Larry on Saturday, after which the storm moves north towards the East Greenland Sea.

My local weather was hazy but sunny and warm with highs around 27 C. We had a minor return of forest fire smoke which must have been coming from some distant location in the U.S. as winds were south-southwest at 30-50 km/hr all day.

Saturday, 11 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 September --

-- Temperatures will be near normal values.

-- Rainfall will be about half of normal.

-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal.

--Wind speeds will gradually increase to moderate southwest later in the interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, isolated showers more frequent in Ulster, cool with highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with lows 5 to 9 C.

SUNDAY will become overcast in the south with outbreaks of light rain possible later in the day, other regions will remain partly cloudy to sunny with highs near 18 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with a few outbreaks of light rain, more likely in south and west. Lows 6 to 10 C and highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers ending by afternoon, lows 5 to 8 C, highs 14 to 17 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring increasing cloud and moderate southwest winds late in the day, rain overnight into Thursday morning, highs both days near 17 C.

From that point on, the regime will be unsettled with passing frontal systems and occasionally heavier rainfalls, temperatures in the 14 to 17 C range.

Larry has come and gone from eastern Newfoundland where winds gusted to nearly 140 km/hr. My local weather was cloudy, somewhat misty, with light rain setting in after mid-afternoon, and it's raining now, with temperatures peaking at 20 C earlier.

Monday, 13 September, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 Sept are generally close to normal values except that sunshine may fall a bit short (50 to 75 per cent of normal).

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy except for some brighter intervals this morning in the north. Light rain will spread into the south coast counties and later some parts of Leinster and the midlands will see a few showers, isolated heavier outbreaks and thunderstorms are possible but most places are only going to see 5-10 mm rainfalls. Highs 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few leftover showers and lows 7 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, highs near 19 C.

WEDNESDAY will be sunny with increasing cloud by mid-day west, afternoon east. Lows near 7 C and highs near 20 C.

THURSDAY will see rain arriving on the west coast and spreading gradually into the midlands, 5 to 15 mm amounts possible. Winds will pick up for the first time in quite a while for most places, southwest 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 18 C.

FRIDAY will start out showery in central and eastern counties, with gradual clearing by afternoon, not as breezy, with lows near 11 C and highs near 17 C.

SATURDAY will bring increasing cloud, gusty southwest winds and rain by late in the day, lows near 10 C and highs near 19 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and breezy with morning showers and some clearing by later in the day, lows near 13 C and highs near 18 C.

NEXT WEEK is looking fairly unsettled and breezy to windy at times with near average temperatures, although it could warm up again late in the week.

My local weather was partly to mostly cloudy with a thunderstorm rolling in by mid-afternoon, highs near 21 C. Meanwhile as remnants of Larry drop snow over the Greenland ice cap, a new storm has formed, Nicholas in the western Gulf of Mexico moving north off the Rio Grande border region of Texas and Mexico, with a landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston expected late tonight. This storm could briefly become a hurricane before landfall, but the main impacts will be flooding rainfalls in southeast Texas.

Wednesday, 15 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 Sept 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal, mainly because nights will continue very mild, daytime readings not too far from mid-September averages.

-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal as the disturbances begin to acquire more moisture in coming days, notably Friday.

-- Sunshine will be held down to around 50 per cent of normal values.

-- Wind speeds will gradually increase back into a more typical autumnal range.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring a few morning showers and some partial clearing later, highs 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with fog becoming rather widespread after midnight, lows 12 to 14 C in the south and west, 6 to 10 C central, east and north (although temperatures may rise towards dawn).

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy in the eastern and central two-thirds, and overcast in the west where rain and strong south to southwest winds are likely to arrive during the late afternoon and evening. Highs 18-21 C.

FRIDAY will see frequent and sometimes heavy showers with total rainfalls from late Thursday to early Saturday about 30-40 mm in some central counties, 20-30 mm more widespread. Lows near 11 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY there will still be one or two showers around but a gradual clearing trend for a time, followed by more persistent showers for part of the overnight period into Sunday morning. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY will have the morning showers left over from the overnight frontal passage, then variable cloud and a few more showers likely, lows around 10 C and highs around 16 C.

NEXT WEEK is currently looking rather dry by comparison, and temperatures may be warmer at times in a southwesterly flow. Highs 19 to 23 C.

My local weather on Tuesday was mostly cloudy with light rain at times, high near 17 C. Two new tropical systems are being tracked, neither has acquired a number yet; one is southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, heading slowly west. This one could become a hurricane over a week from now near Bermuda and could threaten either the U.S. northeast coast or Canada's Atlantic provinces (or both). Another less potent system is east of Florida drifting north-northeast and looks likely to remain over the ocean if it does reach storm intensity. These two may get their numbers and names in reverse order.

Friday, 17 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 September --

-- Temperatures will average about 1.0 deg above normal but with a gradual fall to slightly below normal at end of the week.

-- Rainfalls will average near normal to 25% below normal in parts of the east.

-- Sunshine will average about 75% of normal. Some dense fog can be expected several nights and mornings (Mon-Wed).

-- Wind speeds will gradually pick up late in the interval but will be either light or moderate until then.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms moving through south-central counties into central Leinster. Further rainfalls of 10-15 mm are likely. Highs 16 to 18 C. Some clearing by afternoon in parts of the west, but still with isolated showers around.

TONIGHT will have a few light showers but also some clear intervals and lows 7 to 10 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, perhaps a bit more frequent in south central counties by afternoon and evening. About 2-5 mm rain is expected. Highs 14 to 17 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy but becoming overcast from the west by late in the day as a weak warm front approaches, with dry weather most of the day, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C. Some drizzle or light rain may develop in the west overnight.

MONDAY will have a rather dull and misty start, brightening up gradually by afternoon. Any light rain or drizzle in the north should clear out by the afternoon. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY could have some persistent dense fog in the morning, slowly brightening to hazy sunny intervals in some parts of the east, south and central counties. Lows near 6 C and highs near 18 C. Strong southwest winds will develop and rain will arrive by the overnight hours.

WEDNESDAY will be windy with showers and temperatures steady around 14 to 16 C.

Several days of colder autumnal feeling weather will follow, highs closer to 13 C and winds westerly 50-70 km/hr at times, with passing showers, some of hail. It will however warm up again towards the end of the weekend of 25th-26th.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and cool with highs near 14 C after a slight ground frost reported around the area, and it feels cold enough under clear skies at present to have another frost but then cloud followed by rain for most of late Friday and Saturday here. ... the two weak tropical candidates have not impressed the judges yet, and remain un-recognized. The east coast low will probably have a 2 day spell as a tropical storm off Cape Cod, and the tropical Atlantic wave looks like it wants to stay quite weak for days, but eventually could become a tropical storm also near Bermuda, where it could circle around trapped below a ridge.

Sunday, 19 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 September --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will be around 10 to 25% of the average for the first four days, and most of that happens today. The split in the guidance may continue but the drier outlook seems more plausible to me, so I would estimate at most 50% of normal values by next weekend. It could be closer to 75% in parts of the north and west.

-- Sunshine will be around 75% of normal values, the main factor working against a higher outcome is low cloud and fog likely on several mornings.

-- Wind speeds will slowly increase after mid-week but will be rather slack until then.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with some sunny breaks, and occasional outbreaks of light rain mostly in the northwest into Ulster as a weak warm front moves through. Rainfall amounts generally 1-3 mm in the north, perhaps less in some parts of the south and east. Highs 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will see some clearing but also widespread low cloud and eventually mist or fog, which might be quite prevalent by morning, lows will depend on the amount of clearing, could drop to 4-7 C where skies clear for any length of time, otherwise 7 to 10 C more likely.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be strongly influenced by strong high pressure and warm air aloft creating an inversion. This may lead to extensive fog and low cloud both mornings starting from the overnight hours, but any place that can manage to clear up could warm into the low 20s, as I suspect many places won't clear very readily 17 to 19 C seems more likely for many both days. Morning lows are also going to be subject to variations depending on clear skies or low cloud, lows could fall into the 5 to 8 C range inland but will likely be held near 10 C in most locations. These will be almost calm days too.

WEDNESDAY this calm spell will slowly yield to stronger southwest breezes setting in across the north early in the day and spreading further south later. Some sporadic outbreaks of rain are likely with a weak and drying frontal system. Lows 7 to 9 C and highs 16 to 19 C.

THURSDAY to about SUNDAY 26th will be similar with moderate to strong southwest winds at times, a few intervals of showery rains, but also fairly dry overall especially in the south, with near average temperatures (highs 14 to 17 C). After the weekend, a stormier pattern is indicated and there could be strong winds and heavy rainfalls in some areas, particularly the west and north.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with some light rain at times and chilly, highs only around 13 C. Tropical storm Odette has come and gone, but a fairly active low remains from that, and part of it will head for Iceland mid-week while another part will drift around in a long counter-clockwise loop west of the Azores. That could re-acquire tropical characteristics but I am not sure if the NHC would consider it Odette part two or give it a new name as the storm will soon split into two parts. Meanwhile, the tropical Atlantic disturbance has finally made it to the numbered stage and seems unlikely to do very much, if it gets a name (35 knot winds would be required) then it will be Peter (unless something else happens with another wave following it, the next name in the series is Rose).

Tuesday, 21 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 September --

-- Temperatures will average about 1.5 deg above normal values, turning cooler after Sunday 26th.

-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal in the south, to perhaps 50-75 per cent in the north.

-- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal values.

-- Winds will be very light at first, then will slowly increase to moderate southwest to west at times.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see a very gradual end to morning fog or mist, winds staying rather light in the south, but picking up gradually to moderate southwesterly in the north, where a bit of drizzle or light rain could develop later, highs 17 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will be breezy and quite mild with occasional rain in the north and west, lows near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, heavier in Connacht and Ulster (5-8 mm) than Munster or Leinster, except for some counties further north. Winds southwest 40-70 km/hr will mark a change in the recent weather for most places, and highs 15 to 18 C.

THURSDAY will become partly cloudy with isolated showers, moderate westerly winds and lows near 10 C, highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with breaks in the cloud only likely in the south, and breezy with some showers turning to a steady rain in the north mainly at first, spreading further south later on, with 5 to 15 mm potential, lows near 8 C and highs 17 to 19 C.

The weekend will continue unsettled with temperatures slightly above average (16 to 18 C) and occasional rain both days, then it will turn a few degrees colder for Monday 27th and remain in the 13 to 16 C range most of the last week of the month, with a few showers but also sunny intervals in a west to northwest wind of about 30 to 50 km/hr.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy with passing light showers, clearing towards evening, and rather cool (15 C). The tropical situation remains unchanged from the previous report, Peter and Rose continue to limp along as rather weak tropical storms. There is some sign of development now from yet another wave coming out of west Africa and models do show some signs of a hurricane forming from either that or some other similar impulse in about a week or so, after Peter and Rose have both died off.

If you're interested in the Ryder Cup golf forecast, it looks reasonably good for the three days (Friday to Sunday), partly cloudy skies and near average temperatures with any showers brief and relatively light, winds no stronger than about 15-20 mph and those generally from west to northwest. Temperatures will be around 18 C daytime hours.

Thursday, 23 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 Sep 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal to 1.0 deg above normal, after a warm first half of the weekly interval, and a cooler second half.

-- Rainfalls will average about 25 per cent above normal in the west, to 25 per cent below normal in the east, after a series of locally heavy frontal waves hit from Sunday to mid-week. It will be essentially dry in the south until they arrive.

-- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal with a lot of cloud in both the warmer air and the cooler air masses when they arrive.

-- Winds will be moderate southwesterly until Sunday, briefly stronger westerly then back to southwesterly at more moderate pace.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and occasional showers, in gusty southwest to west winds 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs 17 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will continue partly cloudy to overcast and very mild with lows 12 to 14 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with moderate southwest winds and isolated showers both days, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C (locally closer to 20 C near east and south coasts).

SUNDAY will become overcast and rather windy (southwest to west 50 to 70 km/hr) with intervals of rain, 10 to 20 mm possible, lows near 13 C and highs near 17 C. There could be some local thunderstorms with hail during the cold frontal passage mid-day.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with outbreaks of rain and local hail possible, lows near 9 C and highs near 14 C. A spell of heavier rain is likely on Tuesday as a frontal system develops in the cooler flow and moves quickly through the north and central regions, rainfalls could be quite heavy in Atlantic counties.

The rest of next week may warm up again slightly to around 15-16 C as the Atlantic resumes a more southwesterly delivery, and eventually there could be some stronger winds and briefly heavy rainfalls.

In the tropics, Peter and Rose seem to be just about done with their weak efforts, but Sam (about to be named, still T.D. 18) may prove to be a more formidable storm reaching hurricane proportions near the Windward or Leeward Islands, then making a grand tour of the Atlantic, and it's worth noting that the guidance shows its remnants quite close to Ulster in about two weeks, something to track anyway (too early to be at all concerned about this).

My local weather on Wednesday was partly sunny with thick layers of high cloud at times, but rather warm near 21 C.

Saturday, 25 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 25 Sep to 1 Oct 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, often rather cool after this weekend's continuing 3-5 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfalls will average near normal with a few parts of the southeast possibly 25 per cent above normal after significant outbreaks of rain on Sunday and Tuesday, and a few more showers later.

-- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal values in a rather cloudy regime.

-- Winds generally moderate southwest to west throughout.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather misty and in some places drizzly at first, with some brighter intervals developing at least in the southern and eastern regions by mid-day and afternoon, with winds west-southwest 40-60 km/hr. Highs 17 to 21 C.

TONIGHT will continue very mild with occasional light rain, lows near 14 C.

SUNDAY will bring some heavy showers and isolated squally showers or thunderstorms with hail, clearing from the west during the afternoon and turning colder there. Highs 15 to 18 C, temperatures dropping to about 12-14 C later. Winds southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr. Rainfalls about 10 to 15 mm in some areas.

MONDAY will be bright, cool with passing showers of rain and some with hail and thunder, winds west-southwest 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY will bring intervals of rain turning rather heavy across the southeast during the afternoon, 15-30 mm amounts possible. Some gusty westerly winds will develop later in the day. Lows near 12 C and highs near 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy with isolated showers, some steady rain by evening and overnight in the north though, lows around 7 C and highs around 13 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will turn somewhat milder again with occasional rain or drizzle, highs 15 to 17 C.

The outlook into early October calls for rather cool weather to return for some time, and becoming quite windy at times possibly in association with remnants of Hurricane Sam (see next paragraph) ...

Sam will probably be quite a strong hurricane but fortunately is swerving north in time to miss most of the island chain and tracking just east of Bermuda in a few days' time. Models now have Sam meandering around in eastern Canada for a while then its remnant low moving across the Atlantic and bringing gales to parts of Ulster and Scotland around 7th to 9th of October. Still lots of time for that to change. Yet another weak tropical storm has developed (not associated with remnants of Odette), Teresa is north of Bermuda and will merge with low pressure moving out of the Great Lakes region within two days.

My local weather on Friday was sunny and very warm with a high near 26 C.

Monday, 27 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 27 Sep to 3 Oct 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values or slightly below.

-- Rainfalls will average about 25 per cent above normal.

-- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal values.

-- Most of the interval will have moderate southwest to west winds, occasionally stronger gusts with frontal passages.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, some becoming heavy later on with thunder and hail possible. Winds southwest to west at around 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will have a few partly cloudy to clear intervals at first, then overcast with rain arriving in parts of the southwest towards dawn. Lows will be 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY will have frequent intervals of rain with 10-20 mm accumulations, probably heaviest in the south and east. A few thundery showers could be embedded in a frontal passage around early to mid afternoon. Winds southerly veering more westerly with the front, could be strong at times near south coast and parts of the west coast. Highs 13 to 15 C. Some fog is likely over higher ground in the north in the morning to mid-day hours.

WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy with showers more isolated, staying rather cool, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C. Moderate southwest to west winds 40 to 70 km/hr.

THURSDAY will be overcast and a little milder with outbreaks of light to moderate rain, 5 to 10 mm likely, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY will be windy with passing showers and risk of a thunderstorm, lows near 11 C and highs near 17 C. About 10 mm of rain likely.

The WEEKEND and first part of the following week (2 to 5 Oct) will be rather cold with partly cloudy skies and some chance of showers. Eventually this will break down to more windy and unsettled conditions later in the week, but remnants of Sam are perhaps less likely to be a factor although at this time range guidance cannot be all that trusted on details, but Sam is now shown taking quite a bit of time to get disentangled with its close approach to eastern Newfoundland where it's now shown looping around and getting quite weak before rejoining a steady stream of other disturbances in the jet stream where it may be absorbed into another low long before reaching Europe.

The first part of Sam's history is still looking about the same, quite strong at present but no direct threat to Caribbean islands, but then including a close brush with Bermuda by about Saturday 2nd, and Newfoundland by Monday 4th October. Some other tropical threats are being watched but not expected to be overly severe if they do happen at all.

My local weather on Sunday marked the end of a long fine spell with increasing cloud and a bit of drizzle by late afternoon, highs near 19 C. It looks like more sustained rainfalls here over the next two days and cooler temperatures.

Wednesday, 29 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 29 Sep to 5 Oct 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.

-- Rainfall will be rather heavy in some parts of west Ulster and north Connacht, with 50 per cent above normal possible from frequent downpours, but other regions will either be closer to normal or a little below normal in some "rainshadow" areas further east.

-- Sunshine will be only about 50 per cent of normal values.

-- Winds will vary from moderate to strong at times, often from a southwest to west direction.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with a sprinkling of rather light showers at first, but heavy showers and areas of heavy rainfall will move in during the evening, as winds freshen considerably. Highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will be cloudy and windy with 20-40 mm rainfalls possible near the west coast especially over hilly terrain, more like 10-20 mm generally in other regions. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr in exposed locations. Some moderation of these conditions may follow towards morning. Lows could be around 5 to 8 C in the east before more cloud spreads in, but otherwise temperatures steady around 11 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, then overcast and windy with squally showers and another 10-15 mm rain likely. Highs 13 to 17 C. Winds by evening and overnight southwest 60 to 100 km/hr in exposed locations.

FRIDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with outbreaks of light rain, 5 to 10 mm expected, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

SATURDAY will continue overcast and rather wet at times with gusty southwest to west winds developing, the situation is evolving and exact track of a fast-moving low will determine which regions may require wind alerts, most likely the south coast. Temperatures steady 12 to 14 C.

SUNDAY will become partly cloudy again with showers more isolated in west to northwest winds, cooler with highs only 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY will also be rather cool and partly cloudy with highs near 14 C.

The rest of next week looks rather unsettled and milder in a developing southwest flow that could see remnants of Sam interacting with potential new tropical storm or hurricane (probably "Victor" although if something else gets a name first, then Wanda) which right now is trailing Sam by about 1,500 miles in the tropical Atlantic. The distance between them may slowly decrease once Sam slows down while interacting with low pressure near Newfoundland. At some point around midweek Sam's dying circulation south of Iceland could pull in the energy from still-tropical Victor (or Wanda) near the Azores and this situation will need a close watch as details are bound to be somewhat different from today's maps (for Friday 8th October which is ten days away yet). But those maps suggest that the wind circulation around Victor (or Wanda) could be energized by this complex development just around the time it is passing close to Ireland, so worth keeping in mind that there could be some impactful weather events late next week (as well as all this rather significant weather before then). Another tropical wave between Sam and potential Victor is looking rather weak now and could max out as only a tropical depression with a number but no name possibly, its problem being that the system to its east has much better conditions for development and may absorb this other one eventually.

The entire collection of these disturbances threatens to bring some heavy to excessive rainfalls to some parts of northwestern Ireland over the time scale of a week to ten days, I've seen model forecasts of up to 100-120 mm of rain over that period (perhaps not all that unusual as the peak of the autumn rains are usually in November). This is somewhat speculative at this time range however.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with a few showers and cool with highs reaching about 13 C. We are expecting a slow clearing trend by tomorrow (later today in your time frame) here.

Friday, 1 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 Oct 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal.

-- Rainfall will average about 25 per cent above normal in some parts of the west and north, closer to average or a little below in south and east.

-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values.

-- Winds mostly moderate south to southwest, occasionally strong southwest to west.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, more frequent in the east this morning. Scattered showers will bring only about 2-5 mm of rain to most places during the day, heavier rain could set in by evening for a time. Highs 12 to 15 C. Winds backing to southerly and increasing to 50-70 km/hr with higher gusts possible near south coast.

TONIGHT will be overcast with intervals of rain, and some strong wind gusts near the south coast mainly, with lows around 7 C. A further 5-8 mm of rain is likely overnight.

SATURDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud, some brief outbreaks of heavy rain with local thunder and hail, but also some brighter spells. Winds may become strong west to northwest along Atlantic coasts by late in the day. Highs 13 to 16 C. A much stormier outcome is expected over in southern England as low pressure heads there during the day with some locally heavy rainfalls and strong winds.

SUNDAY will be breezy to windy and cool with passing showers, winds westerly 50 to 70 km/hr, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

MONDAY will start with an interval of rather blustery winds and squally showers, with partial clearing to follow as winds veer from southwest to west at around 50 to 80 km/hr at times. Lows near 9 C and highs near 13 C.

TUESDAY will see gradual improvement as a ridge of high pressure builds in, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy at first but sunny intervals will be more frequent by afternoon, and showers will die out, as will the blustery winds. Lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and mild with morning lows 3 to 7 C and highs 14 to 18 C.

THURSDAY will bring increasing cloud and a chance of rain in west and north mainly, lows near 8 C and highs near 20 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy with outbreaks of light rain and staying quite mild, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

The latest on Sam and Victor ... Victor now seems like he can't keep up to big brother Sam and will miss the chance to transfer energy into Sam's trailing cold fronts, which now look even less energized overall and could stay near or even off to the north of Ulster. This will allow the very mild southwest flow promoted by Sam's trajectory to continue for several more days. What's left of Victor by the end of next week is now expected to die out near the middle of the Atlantic or transfer some energy into the next low following on behind Sam. The main theme of this period will perhaps not be stormy weather of any kind but very mild temperatures.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with dry conditions to mid-afternoon then some light rain, and a high near 14 C.

Sunday, 3 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 Oct 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 2.5 deg above normal, with an increasing trend from slightly below normal at first to 4-6 above normal by end.

-- Rainfall will average about 25 per cent above normal in some parts of the west and north, closer to average to as little as 50 per cent of normal values in the south and east.

-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values.

-- Winds mostly moderate south to southwest, occasionally strong southwest to west.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy to windy and cool with passing showers sometimes merging into longer intervals of light rain, winds westerly 50 to 70 km/hr backing late in the day to south-southwest 50 to 70 km/hr with some potential for higher gusts near south coast, and highs near 13 C. About 5-10 mm further rainfalls are expected today, although some "rainshadow" locations further east may only see 1 to 3 mm.

TONIGHT will be rather windy and cool with occasional rain, winds southwesterly 40 to 60 km/hr, lows 7 to 9 C.

MONDAY will start with an interval of rather blustery winds and squally showers, with partial clearing to follow in some parts of the west and north, although heavy showers may continue across the south coast and in parts of Leinster, with winds gradually veering from southwest to west at around 50 to 80 km/hr at times, highs near 13 C.

TUESDAY will see gradual improvement as a ridge of high pressure builds in, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy at first but sunny intervals will be more frequent by afternoon, and showers will die out, as will the blustery winds. Lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and mild with morning lows 3 to 7 C and highs 14 to 18 C. Some rain now appears likely to brush into western coastal areas during the day.

THURSDAY will bring sunshine in some parts of the east, midlands and south, followed by increasing cloud and further outbreaks of rain in west and north mainly, sometimes spreading a bit further east, with lows near 8 C and highs near 20 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy with outbreaks of light rain and staying quite mild, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C west, 21 C east.

By the weekend of the 9th-10th, higher pressure will be developing and skies could be clear at times with patchy low cloud and some morning fog or mist patches, quite mild with highs 16 to 21 C. This high shows signs of strengthening over Ireland during the week which could lead to a prolonged interval of fine, dry weather although prone to longer spells of fog in some areas, but eventually this would be likely to give way to either a renewed blast of Atlantic driven wind and rain or even a colder turn from a northerly source (at this time range model suggestions of cold outbreaks are often just downgraded later by shunting the main path of the cold further east though).

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with spotty light rain in the afternoon but quite mild at around 18 C. Meanwhile Hurricane Sam, slowly losing intensity but gaining in terms of its areal extent, is moving northeast well to the south of Newfoundland and will just miss the island by a few hundred miles when it becomes extratropical around Monday night. From there it heads northeast into the far northern Atlantic and loops around near Iceland. The rain in the forecast from mid-week to Friday is from a long trailing cold front that Sam is expected to produce, but this feature becomes very weak once the high pressure mentioned begins to push into it from the southeast. Victor never made it to hurricane status and has been declared a dying tropical depression, although traces of it continue to push north for several days, and it makes a weak connection to the frontal system before being totally eliminated from the maps around Thursday.

Tuesday, 5 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 Oct 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal values with the warmest readings Friday to Sunday.

-- Rainfalls will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal in the coastal portions of the west, but much less even a few miles inland, trending down to only about 10 to 25 per cent of normal in most of Leinster and east Munster. The heavier rain will occur around Thursday and Friday.

-- Sunshine will average near normal values or perhaps slightly above in some parts of the east, to about half of normal in the cloudier west.

-- Winds will slowly diminish from moderate to light as high pressure takes hold on the weekend.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy, quite breezy at times with isolated showers, most likely close to the west coast. Winds west to northwest at about 30 to 50 km/hr, highs 13 to 15 C. There may be fairly generous amounts of sunshine in some eastern counties.

TONIGHT will start out clear and cool in parts of the east and north while cloud will spread in rapidly across the south and west. Lowest temperatures could be during the evening with a warming trend after midnight, but lows in many areas of the south and west will be close to 10 C while they could fall to 5 C and start rising in the east and north.

WEDNESDAY will become overcast in parts of the south and west and there could be some outbreaks of light rain but the east and north are likely to remain partly cloudy turning very mild, morning lows 7 to 10 C and afternoon highs 14 to 18 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY, some bursts of heavy rain are possible near Atlantic coasts as a front associated with distant extratropical Sam (west of Iceland) brushes up against the coast, but will be prevented from making much progress inland by a push of higher pressure from the east. The net result will be quite mild and at times hazy sunshine may break through widespread higher cloud layers, with temperatures perhaps close to 20 degrees away from coasts in a southeast to southerly breeze both days. About 20-40 mm of rain could fall in a few spots like higher parts of Kerry, Connemara and west Ulster. Even so, it may remain almost dry in most of central and eastern Ireland with some hazy sunshine both days despite considerable amounts of higher cloud. The west coast rain may be confined to just a few areas as the guidance suggests the main axis of heavy rain will be just off the coast except for outer headlands of Kerry, then into Connemara and across western Mayo into northwest Donegal. These few areas could see some heavy stream flows but not very far east, rainfalls could be considerably lower even in much of Clare, Limerick and Cork.

By SATURDAY high pressure will be more in control and the rain will end, skies will tend to remain partly to mostly cloudy in the west but with some sunny intervals, and it could be sunny for much of the day further east, with highs 18 to 21 C. SUNDAY looks almost the same but with a slight northwesterly flow setting in as the high drifts a bit further west, it may be closer to 16 C. MONDAY will have a more pronounced cooler component so that highs could be around 14 C. Nights may get rather cool in this spell with dense fog possible and lows perhaps into the frost zone for inland counties. However, the high looks like it would then ripple back across Ireland from the west cutting off the colder northerly breezes and returning temperatures to the high teens (16 to 19 C range) by mid-week. Eventually the high will sink further south and allow a mild southwesterly flow to develop with occasional rainfalls returning to the mix.

My local weather on Monday was mild with a veil of higher cloud sometimes breaking slightly to allow weak sunshine, and highs reached about 17 with light winds. We expect to remain in this warmer air mass today with a weak frontal passage and small amounts of rain due mid-week then about a week of dry weather which is always a bonus at this time of year.

Thursday, 7 October, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 Oct --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal values, warmest from today to Saturday, then closer to average although warming again by mid-week.

-- Rainfalls could exceed normal values in a few parts of the west, otherwise, will amount to only 25 per cent of normal in other regions.

-- Sunshine will be near normal and could reach 25 per cent above normal in the east with the brightest part of this weekly interval coming towards the middle and end.

-- Winds will drop back to rather light values, occasionally back to moderate by about Monday but another spell of light winds will then develop.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be unseasonably warm in most areas, with highs 18 to 21 C. A few brighter intervals could develop over Leinster and east Munster. Pulses of heavy rain will continue to feed up from the southwest clipping some parts of the west coast, most notably Connemara where some locally heavy amounts are possible (30-40 mm). Some parts of Kerry and Donegal, Mayo could also see fairly significant rainfalls, but amounts will rapidly drop off around Galway (city) and further east.

TONIGHT will be cloudy and mild with some rain at times in the west, lows 13 to 15 C.

FRIDAY will see the rain edging a bit further east at times, but there could also be a general weakening trend as it does so, with 10-15 mm further amounts possible in some western counties, 5-10 mm further east and later in the day. Warm again with highs 18 to 21 C.

SATURDAY will bring an end to the western rainfall as the front begins to disintegrate early in the day, leaving a mix of cloud and sun, but continued rather warm temperatures with lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY, the wind will turn a little more northwesterly and allow for a slight cooling, highs will be in the 13 to 17 C range (warmest now in west Munster) and morning lows will be at least a few degrees cooler (5 to 8 C) and locally could be even lower, with dense fog and ground frosts possible. This will be a generally pleasant spell of weather nevertheless, and after the northwest flow is cut off due to the high returning a bit further east, the rest of next week could turn milder again, possibly back into the 15 to 18 C range with milder nights likely too. It looks like a week to ten days before this mild and dry interval breaks down and then only to a more unsettled but still quite mild south to southwest flow.

My local weather on Wednesday was a bit cooler with passing clouds and sprinkles of hail as it was quite cold aloft. We drove through some nearby mountains and noticed small amounts of snow had fallen near their summits (above 2,000 m) but it was around 8 C in the mountain passes and around 16 C in the valleys. An odd thing you might not expect to encounter was dense smoke as forestry companies are burning off "slash" (waste wood from logging) which they tend to do in the autumn and early winter when there's no danger of the fires spreading.

Hoping the program does better today ...

Friday, 8 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, warm for a few days, then closer to average with a slight return to warmer than average later next week. Some substantial rainfalls today then mostly dry. An improvement in sunshine can be expected. Winds becoming rather light at times.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy, warm and humid with outbreaks of rain, becoming heavier by afternoon in some western and also central counties where up to 20 mm could fall. All areas are likely to see at least 5 mm. Highs 18 to 21 C.

TONIGHT will become rather foggy or misty with occasional light rain continuing, mild with lows 12 to 16 C.

SATURDAY morning, cloud will linger in some areas, especially the north, and a bit more rain is likely. Eventually some sunshine will begin to break through and the rain will move off to the north and east. Highs 16 to 19 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will be partly cloudy to clear, with some generous sunshine amounts in some parts of the south and east, but slightly cooler due to a light northwest wind (becoming moderate in Ulster). Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 12 to 17 C.

By TUESDAY somewhat milder again as the northwest breeze is cut off and replaced by light and variable winds to a gentle southerly flow in western counties. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 13 to 18 C.

This milder weather could persist for several more days and if anything it could turn slightly warmer again.

My local weather started out with a mixture of rain and wet snow leaving a brief accumulation on grassy surfaces at my elevation (nothing fell below about 700 m asl). Later on it became partly cloudy to clear by evening. Highs reached about 10 C once the sun got past the cloud deck, but it was only 2 or 3 C at 0900h.

Saturday, 9 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 Oct 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will average 25 per cent of normal as the heavier rainfall recently peters out today, not likely to return in any significant amount for most of this week.

-- Sunshine could eventually reach a normal amount in many areas but there is some concern that the high pressure due to dominate the week could contain considerable low cloud, so it may be somewhat hit or miss as to what places see the most sunshine.

-- Winds are going to return to the light or even calm categories, not great news if you're trying to generate electricity that way.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy at first with the rain slowly fragmenting to showers and ending with just drizzle around mid-day in parts of the east. The west will brighten up first and some long sunny intervals could show up in parts of the inland central to southern counties. Highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will have patchy low cloud, fog developing after midnight in places, especially inland low-lying districts. Lows 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY any low cloud or fog may be rather slow to dissipate in a few spots but the sun should win out at least from time to time, with very light winds expected. A bit cooler for the eastern half of the country perhaps, but highs still in the 14 to 17 C range.

MONDAY will continue similar with low cloud and fog at first, morning lows 3 to 7 C, some sunny intervals developing, and mild daytime highs of about 14 to 17 C.

The rest of the week looks quite mild for mid-October, with light southeast winds developing. There could be considerable low cloud and fog each morning after some clear skies from afternoon to late evening. Highs each day about 12 to 16 C and morning lows about 3 to 6 C, although isolated frost cannot be ruled out in the central counties. This dry spell (other than fog or dew) will gradually break down around Friday or Saturday, possibly not until late Saturday according to some guidance, with just sporadic outbreaks of light rain at times in the following week as the high does not totally disappear from the weather mix, although with a stronger southerly flow at times and weak fronts trying to push as far east as Britain but encountering resistance by the time they reach the eastern half of Ireland.

My local weather on Friday started out cloudy and cold with a few snowflakes drifting by, then it cleared by mid-day and stayed mostly sunny for the afternoon with a high near 9 C. There's likely a sharp frost already forming as it has stayed clear and felt like about 2 C at sunset. We are still seeing the odd bear around so they don't expect winter to start for a while (I am not ruling out any reliable guidance at this point).

Is the tropical storm season over? There are few signs of any major developments but probably one or two more named storms are yet to come.

The count for this season so far is 20 named storms, 7 became hurricanes and of those, 4 became major hurricanes.

Monday, 11 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain the same, near normal temperatures and quite dry with more sunshine than some recent times, and very light winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly cloudy to sunny with any fog dissipating soon, and with light winds it will feel pleasant by mid-day and afternoon with highs around 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will start out clear and some fog or mist will develop, cool with chance of isolated ground frosts, lows 1 to 6 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will continue very similar to today with light winds and morning fog or mist, isolated patchy frosts, and daytime sunny spells with a similar temperature range, lows about 2 to 5 C and highs 13 to 16 C. The southeast breeze will pick up slightly after tomorrow.

FRIDAY some light rain may develop in parts of Ulster and north Leinster as a cooler air mass tries to push in, but its effects may be limited to that part of Ireland with more cloud spreading further south at times, temperatures will range from 8-11 C in the north and northeast, to about 14 C in the south and west.

By SATURDAY, back to partly cloudy skies and light winds as the high rebuilds for a day or so, highs near 14 C, then cloudy with a few showers by SUNDAY and highs 13 to 16 C.

The following week will be mild with moderate south to southwest winds developing, some rain at times, and temperatures much milder at night due to the cloud cover although staying in this week's range for daytime readings, so expect lows 8-12 C and highs 12-16 C. This mild pattern may dominate for the rest of the month although guidance always wants to show variations after ten days or so, that may not necessarily be reliable.

My local weather was cool and partly cloudy to sunny with brisk west to northwest breezes at times, a morning frost and afternoon highs near 13 degrees.

Wednesday, 13 October, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 Oct 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfalls will start up on the weekend and may reach 50 per cent of normal or a bit more in some western counties.

-- Sunshine will be about 50 to 75 per cent of normal, due to persistent low cloud despite high pressure.

-- Winds will be light for several more days then more moderate becoming strong at times near the end of this interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks in the south mainly, and any fog or mist should transform into low cloud later this morning. A slight southeast to south wind will begin to move the cloud by afternoon but large parts of it may persist anyway. Highs 13 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will be foggy or misty with a few widely separated clear spots that could lead to dense fog patches forming. Lows 5 to 9 C.

THURSDAY will be overcast to partly cloudy at times, with morning fog or mist slowly clearing away, highs 13 to 17 C. Rain may arrive in east Ulster by late in the day.

FRIDAY as a weak front moves south, a few outbreaks of light rain from north Leinster towards the southeast counties but this will be brief and amounts slight. Some western areas may remain dry except for fog and dew. Lows 4 to 7 C north, 8 to 11 C south. Highs 9 to 12 C north to about 15 C south and west.

SATURDAY will bring outbreaks of rain, followed by partial clearing, and increasing south to southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, breezy with occasional rain or showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will likely be rather windy and unsettled, temperatures around 14 C, with outbreaks of heavy rain possible. By mid-week temperatures may fall off slightly in strong westerly winds, showers could turn squally with hail and thunder in places. Highs mid-week around 10 to 12 C. It will then turn milder again with more Atlantic systems heading towards Ireland on a regular basis.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and rather cool after a sharp frost, with highs around 10 C. It has clouded over since sunset. Pacific hurricane Pamela is heading into the southwestern U.S. from Baja California and will follow a low already moving out of the Rockies into the plains states. This will keep it quite warm in many parts of the central and eastern U.S., with locally heavy rainfalls near the frontal systems in central regions. All of this activity will be heading into the Atlantic later in the week and firing up the jet stream again.