Thursday, 15 July, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 15-21 July 2021
-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal, the higher values in the midlands, south and east.
-- Rainfall will be slight if any falls at all.
-- Sunshine will vary from 75 per cent of normal in the cloudier west, to 125 per cent of normal in the sunny east.
-- Wind speeds will be very light and nights generally calm.
Over the next week, conditions will be similar each day with regional differences so rather than repeating all those regional differences, it makes more sense to give the forecasts by regions ... this will apply to the period from today to mid-week (Wed 21st July).
EASTERN and CENTRAL counties will be partly to mostly sunny and very warm, with hazy nights prone to some local fog. Highs will be around 24 to 27 C each day and overnight lows in the range of 12 to 16 C.
SOUTHERN counties will be similar to the above especially inland from the coast, but sea breezes or local low cloud and fog could reduce temperatures near the coast to around 20 C. There would also be a slight risk of thundershowers forming by the weekend and early next week, rather isolated and brief, but with the potential for one or two locally heavy downpours, this most likely near higher terrain in the south central to southwestern counties.
WESTERN counties will also be quite warm, and the conditions indicated further east may extend fairly far west at times to within 10-30 miles of the Atlantic coast. Even closer to the coast, low cloud or mist may hold temperatures down closer to the 17-20 C range. However, that may only apply to some outer headlands as time goes on, with a reduction in the marine influence through the latter stages of the warm spell.
Further NORTH, expect more of a mix of cloud and sun and quite warm also, highs 22 to 26 C, lows 11 to 15 C. Coastal areas may have similar marine layer influences to the west coast.
Beyond 21st of July, this pattern is expected to break down gradually with an increase in cloud and showers or thunderstorms from the south, as light winds become moderate southeasterly. Eventually this process will allow the more normal summer weather patterns to redevelop with the Atlantic back in the picture by the final week of the month and some occasional rainfalls again.
While we were off-line, my weather remained sunny, hazy and hot. The only change has been an increase in forest fire smoke from blazes that are mostly in the range of 50 to 300 kms north to northwest of us, not really close but enough to reduce visibility on Wednesday to only 5 kms, with the highs for the past few days in the mid 30s, the heat is considerable but not quite as intense as the super heat wave we had during the Boards 1.0 era.
I didn't know this interruption was coming, or I would have let you know that these forecasts always appear (within a few minutes) on the facebook page of Irish Weather Online. Some of you may have known that or figured it out during the downtime.
Friday, 16 July, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS remain the same, very warm (2-4 deg above normal) and generally dry with near normal amounts of sunshine overall, perhaps more in the east and a bit less than average in the west, with light winds and local sea breezes prevalent.
TODAY will start out with some low cloud or mist near the east coast but this should give way to sunshine by late morning or earlier inland. It will then become partly cloudy to sunny and very warm in most areas by afternoon with a bit of marine cloud or sea fog near some coasts. Highs 24 to 27 C.
TONIGHT will be hazy and partly cloudy with lows only dropping slowly to reach 15 to 18 C.
The next five to seven days will be similar with either very warm or hot conditions depending on location and your tolerance for the combination of temperatures near 25 C (possibly a few degrees higher inland) and moderate humidity levels. There will be a slight increase in risk of local thundershowers in the inland south along sea breeze boundaries 20-40 kms inland from the coast, probably peaking around Sunday but this feature will be very localized, perhaps most likely in higher parts of the inland southwest.
This warm spell (you may hear heat wave although that seems a bit excessive for the actual conditions expected) will break down rather gradually late next week, with a band of showers and thunderstorms expected to move north into the country either late Thursday or early Friday 23rd. This may persist into part of the following weekend with a drop in temperatures to the low 20s. Another front is expected to follow in from the west and return temperatures to a more normal range of 18 to 21 C for the last week of the month, when more frequent showers are likely.
My local weather on Thursday remained sunny, hazy and hot with a high near 36 C. For a while the visibility improved as a southeasterly breeze pushed the smoke haze back towards its point of origin, but then winds turned back to the north and the smoke haze redeveloped towards evening. We have now had a remarkable thirty days of excessive heat here with the average maximum since mid-June at 37 C (normal maximum temperatures in early July are around 29 or 30 C).
Saturday, 17 July, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 July 2021
-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will begin to return to the picture around Friday 23rd, and could amount to 10-15 mm in places.
-- Sunshine will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal values for most, perhaps closer to average in a few coastal areas of the west and north.
-- Very light winds during the day and calm at night most of this coming week.
Just to continue on with the regional rather than daily theme, from now to about Thursday mostly sunny and very warm (some will be thinking hot) especially inland with highs each day 25 to 28 C, and overnight lows quite balmy too with readings only falling below 18 C towards sunrise (perhaps reaching 15 C briefly). Coastal areas will be somewhat cooler especially near the west coast and some parts of north Ulster. Sea fog will be out over the water and may not spread inland at all, but could be found on a few outer headlands. Sunday brings a slight risk of localized thunderstorms in west Munster, near higher terrain, and forming where a weak sea breeze boundary sets up a few miles north of Cork (city) to south Kerry.
By Thursday this pattern may begin to break down with increasing cloud in the south and slightly cooler temperatures as a southeast wind begins to blow at 30-50 km/hr. By Friday most guidance seems to favour a full breakdown of the warm spell / heat wave (as you wish) with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms moving north. This has some potential to become heavy in Leinster and east Ulster, but we won't know too much about the specifics for a few days yet.
Once that breakdown occurs, the trend will be generally towards more unsettled and somewhat cooler weather with highs 19 to 23 C.
My local weather remained sunny and hot, with fairly good visibility most of the day. A weak front brought high cloud in the late afternoon and made for a colourful sunset with smoke layers embedded in the higher cloud moving in. This front was more active to the northeast of the Rockies towards Edmonton with some severe storms in that region. The other day a tornado hit in Barrie, Ontario, which happens to be the location of Ontario's most damaging historical tornado (May 31, 1985) but this one while damaging had a lower rating (EF2) and there were injuries but unlike the previous one, no deaths (eight people died in the 1985 storm, yours truly was living in another Ontario town further along the storm track and we hit our basement when the cell rolled in, the results there were minor wind damage and large hail).
Enjoy the weekend.