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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 13 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    The trends remain the same, quite mild, essentially dry in most areas with small amounts of rain likely at times in the Atlantic coastal counties and parts of Ulster, and a quiet weather pattern for this time of year when it can become very windy or volatile sometimes.

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy but there could be some brighter spells later on in the south mainly, and there will be a few very brief and isolated showers mostly confined to the west but possible anywhere, only amounting to a few raindrops to perhaps 1 mm of rain in a few places. Mild with highs around 13 C.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast, still some patchy drizzle in parts of the west, and lows around 7 C.

    SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and a bit of rain will spread into the west with 1-3 mm potential there, highs about 13 C again.

    MONDAY the rain will become more patchy as it moves further east, eventually dying out entirely, with some brighter spells by afternoon. Lows around 7 C and highs around 13 C.

    TUESDAY a slightly colder westerly flow will push into northern areas with showers and blustery winds (WSW 40-60 km/hr) but will have limited effects on the south, which will have virtually the same weather as the previous days. Highs 8 to 11 C north, 11 to 14 C south.

    WEDNESDAY will see that colder interlude fading out in the north and otherwise it will remain bland and rather featureless in most areas, cloudy with some hazy sun briefly, highs around 14 C.

    From THURSDAY to SATURDAY (20th) there will be little change as mild westerly breezes continue, high pressure quite close to the south coast so a basically dry pattern for many areas, slight chances of rain in the coastal northwest and north. Highs will continue very mild in the 12 to 15 C range. Nights are not likely to get very cold but there could always be one or two places in the inland south with longer spells of clear skies and that would allow colder temperatures to develop there. Not overly foggy due to the higher stratus layer which is basically fog elevated above the ground, the one good thing about it being that it prevents fog at the surface. However, in any clear spots there could be patchy fog of a rather shallow variety in valleys.

    Somewhat colder by about Sunday 21st as the high weakens but a new one forming out to the west of Ireland will bring in northwest winds, so it is likely to be a few degrees cooler for a day or two, before perhaps slowly warming back into the lower teens even near the end of the final week of November.

    My local weather on Friday was overcast and just slightly milder than recent days so that any light precipitation was falling as rain here, still snowing on higher slopes around us though. Highs reached about 5 C. Hoping for some clear skies at times mid-week as there will be a total eclipse of the Moon on the night of the 18th-19th, around midnight to 0100h here, but for western Europe, just starting to happen close to sunrise as the moon sets in the dawn twilight.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 14 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    The mild and mostly dry trends continue. ...

    TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals possible in the south, with a few outbreaks of very light rain or drizzle, not much accumulation anywhere and most places dry. Mild again with highs near 14 or 15 C.

    TONIGHT will see the onset of some occasional light rain from a weak front that will drift into the western counties through the early evening and may reach the midlands and Ulster by about midnight. This may bring 1-3 mm of rain to some places. It will continue to drift further east towards morning and a few showers will reach the east coast; even smaller amounts are likely there. Lows 7 to 10 C.

    MONDAY will see the last of this weak band of rain or drizzle moving into the Irish Sea and breaking up completely there. Skies may brighten a bit towards mid-day and during the afternoon although the mild southwest winds will continue to bring in a rather monotonous low cloud deck that the weak sun at this time of year cannot easily break up through heating from above, when it's mild at the surface too. Highs will reach about 15 C. Winds will increase gradually and some coastal areas could see strong wind gusts by afternoon and evening, to 80 km/hr, although it will probably be much less windy inland for the midlands and most of Leinster.

    TUESDAY will become rather cold in the north after a band of rain moves through in the early morning hours, followed by variable skies and a few passing showers, westerly winds 50-80 km/hr and both lows and highs in a narrow range of 6 to 9 C. Further south the band of rain will once again weaken as it moves further inland and it may be showery at times with some brief sunny intervals too, with only a slight drop in temperatures, morning lows near 8 C and afternoon highs 12 to 14 C.

    WEDNESDAY the milder Atlantic air will quickly return to all areas and skies will be mostly cloudy but essentially dry, with patchy drizzle near coasts. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue breezy and very mild with highs 14 or 15 C. By this time in November, normal daytime highs are closer to 10 or 11 degrees. These will be largely dry days but some rain could spread into the north by late Friday.

    SATURDAY will start out mild and may stay that way in the southern coastal counties but elsewhere a gradually developing cold front will pass during the day dropping temperatures from near 12 C ahead of the front, to 6-7 C behind it, as winds turn more northerly. It looks like a fairly dry frontal passage but a few bands of showers will likely form. Winds becoming northwest to north 50-70 km/hr.

    SUNDAY and MONDAY will be much colder days although nothing too drastic as the main thrust of really cold air of arctic origins will be across the North Sea into central Europe. Daytime highs in Ireland will likely stay in the 6-8 C range with overnight lows near freezing. There could be some mixed wintry shower bands forming with the wintry portions mainly over hills.

    This colder spell will gradually relent to milder conditions as another high drifts in from the west and replaces the one that will be controlling the weather this week. By the end of the week (of 22nd-26th) it will probably be around 10-12 C again.

    My local weather on Saturday was cloudy but dry in the daytime, rather cold with highs near 4 C. Snow began to fall at sunset and has continued at varying rates with 15 cms on the ground now, and temperatures near 0 to 1 C. This may change over to rain at elevations from here down into the valleys, and will continue as heavy snow on higher terrain where 30-40 cm amounts are predicted in some mountain pass locations. Meanwhile, a rather small frontal system managed to flare up into severe winds over the New York City region and some small tornadoes were reported on Long Island doing a bit of damage consistent with F-1 tornadic cells.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 15th November, 2021 ____ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS remain similar with a very mild and largely dry week ahead, except for some coastal areas which may see small amounts of rain in the 10 to 25 per cent of normal range. Not overly windy for this time of year.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be cloudy with some brighter intervals, scattered outbreaks of light rain but only small amounts where it does take place, and moderate southwest winds. Very mild with highs 14 to 16 C.

    TONIGHT some rain will move in from the northwest, as winds increase a little to southwest 40-60 km/hr in exposed locations. Mild with lows near 9 C.

    TUESDAY rain will continue to move further south, followed by partial clearing and then bands of showers affecting mostly the northern half of Connacht and most of Ulster. It will feel colder there in brisk westerly winds and highs 8 to 11 C, but further south changes will be slight and highs will once again reach at least 12 to 14 C.

    WEDNESDAY to about SATURDAY morning, the mild and dry pattern will continue with highs each day 13 to 16 C and overnight lows generally staying well above normal too (7-10 C) although in the inland south one or two spots could see slightly colder morning temperatures if skies clear.

    By late Saturday into SUNDAY a colder northwest to north wind with isolated showers (some mixed wintry falls possible on high ground) will drop temperatures to around 7-9 C by day, and -2 to +3 C at night. This cold spell will be moderate but a change in previous guidance on some model runs indicates potential for more severe wintry weather after a brief milder turn middle of the last week of November, so that by end of the month into early December there could be some cold and snow potential. Details won't firm up much for a few days on that.

    My local weather is going into hyper-active mode as a major Pacific storm moves inland overnight. Coastal areas have seen very heavy rainfalls and there are ongoing flood and mudslide problems, highway closures, and reports of water rescues underway as 150-250 mm rainfalls combined with higher elevation snow melt send small rivers and streams over their banks and forming new paths, in one case down a mountain highway (fortunately nobody was swept away in that apparently and the highway is now closed). Where I live further inland, our recent snow was melting all day in a mild and so far gentle light rainfall, temperatures near 7 C, but this low unlike most is deepening as it moves into Alberta and we are expecting a sudden onset of damaging winds here late Monday with most of the snow melted by then. Will let you know how all that goes in tomorrow's report (if I have electric power).

    The best analogue for this west coast weather pattern seems to be November 1981. That combined with the apparent signal picked up by the European modelling (from several sources) combines to make me more optimistic (or concerned) about wintry potential -- I was saying earlier that I was moderately optimistic about some snow and cold although it might be a borderline situation, but perhaps these new developments shift that more towards considerable optimism for stronger winter weather patterns at times, and starting earlier to include some spells in December as well as January already under watch. In plain language, it could be a fairly severe winter then, and some evidence of that may show up within two or three weeks (not this coming week however).



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 16 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 16-22 Nov 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg above normal although by the end of this interval there will likely be a steady fall towards below normal.

    -- Rainfalls will average 10 to 25 per cent of normal as the rather dry trend continues.

    -- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal values.

    -- Moderate westerly winds will be fairly constant to the weekend then somewhat stronger northwest to north winds will develop.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY some light rain at times in Ulster and nearby parts of Connacht, Leinster, becoming more showery by afternoon, slightly cooler than recent days there with highs 12-13 C. Winds southwest to west 40-60 km/hr. Further south, partly cloudy to overcast with isolated light showers possible, little accumulation likely, highs 13-15 C.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast and mild with moderate westerly winds, some light showers of rain in the north at times, lows near 7 C.

    WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will bring quite mild weather with some brighter intervals at times in the south, and some very light rainfalls possible in the north. Moderate westerly winds and highs each day 13-16 C, overnight lows 6-9 C.

    On SATURDAY this milder air mass will linger to mid-afternoon across parts of the south as colder air gradually pushes into the north and then central counties. Winds will slowly turn more northwesterly and temperatures will likely be steady around 12 C until the front arrives then will fall off to about 7 or so by late afternoon.

    SUNDAY will be breezy to windy and rather cold with northerly winds, partly cloudy skies and isolated showers possible (wintry on higher terrain where they do occur). Morning lows 1-4 C and afternoon highs 6-9 C.

    MONDAY and TUESDAY are also looking rather cold, generally dry with variable skies and isolated wintry showers possible, highs 5-8 C and slight frosts inland as overnight lows will be in the range of -2 to +3 C.

    The various forecast models are having quite a difficult time resolving how this evolves with quite cold air starting to edge further south towards northern Scotland, this more modified cold not seeming to be in much of a hurry to give way to that, but also the milder Atlantic flow pushing against both varieties of cold to try to regain the dominant position. As a result of this uncertainty, different models have quite varying outcomes beyond the middle of next week so we'll just have to adopt a wait and see position as it could range from quite cold to a back-to-milder scenario. Hoping to see clearer guidance by tomorrow perhaps.

    The local weather unfolded about as expected with a mild day ending with strong winds that thankfully have not resulted in any local power outages. The situation has become quite dire in parts of the coastal regions of British Columbia with widespread flooding, mudslides and road closures, and a few cases where people are either trapped on highways between two mudslide zones, or may have been swept off highways into the surrounding rugged terrain. The result of that can be anywhere from catastrophic to just being stranded in vehicle off the side of the road until rescuers can get in or the stranded travelers can get out. At the moment there are a few situations that have unknown outcomes there but in general it's more of a property damage disaster than a mass casualty event.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 17 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 Nov 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average near normal as the first half of the interval is quite mild then the second half equally cold, so two distinct periods, one about 3-4 deg above normal, the second one closer to 3-4 below normal.

    -- Rainfall will be fairly light in general and most of what does fall is expected around Saturday afternoon and evening. It may amount to 5-10 mm which is less than a quarter of a weekly average amount at this time of year.

    -- Sunshine could be somewhat above normal as the colder half of this interval should be reasonably bright, even if the first half remains fairly cloudy.

    -- Winds will be moderate westerly until the change in the weather then moderate northerly backing to northeast at times.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals in the south mainly, and continued quite mild with highs around 12 to 14 C. Winds west-southwest at about 40-60 km/hr. There could be a few light showers near the north coast of Ulster spreading a bit further south at times.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and mild with lows near 7 C. Some mist and fog patches likely towards morning.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue without much change, although the southern counties may see a slightly less breezy outcome while the central and northern counties remain in the moderate westerly flow. Highs both days around 13 or 14 C. Morning lows on Friday near 6 C.

    SATURDAY a rapid change in the weather will be quite noticeable, as a front accelerates southward from Ulster in the morning hours, to central counties by mid-day and the south coast by afternoon. This front could contain a few rain showers more likely to give a brief spell of 3-5 mm rainfalls across the north then more hit or miss towards the southern counties. Once past, the winds will veer from west to north-northwest and become rather gusty at times in the 50-70 km/hr range. Temperatures are likely to stall at about 10-12 C before the front arrives then will fall rather steadily to near 5 C.

    SUNDAY will be breezy and quite cold with the chance of some streamers developing over the Irish Sea. These would be more likely to produce cold rain or hail showers than snow, although it could snow on higher parts of the Wicklow hills. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions with partly cloudy skies, winds north-northeast 50-70 km/hr adding a chill to daytime temperatures of only 5 to 8 C.

    MONDAY and TUESDAY will be cold and dry days with some sunshine and some cloudy intervals. If winds remain east of due north then the Irish Sea showers could reappear at times. Highs both days 4 to 7 C and morning lows -2 to +2 C with frosts in sheltered locations inland.

    The evolution beyond mid-week is rather uncertain with different guidance offering completely different outcomes. The two main possible outcomes seem to be these: (1) the modified cold air could remain in place for the rest of the week, then a reinforcement of colder air from the north would arrive, the transition could see wintry showers near the end of the month, or (2) the Atlantic will be invigorated by this shot of colder air and send back a series of rather strong lows that could drop considerable amounts of rain as milder air gets back into the circulation with those.

    As those are almost opposite outcomes, I will have to step aside and let nature decide which way to go (as always), but my hunch is that the second outcome is more likely even though the first one is more supported by the European model supported by the Canadian model, and the second one comes from the leading American model (GFS). The GFS has been performing better this past year than it had been relative to the competition and it has been right in other situations that involved this kind of contrasting outcome, but of course that's no guarantee it will happen again this time.

    It should be noted also that after that interval of the Atlantic punching back, colder air does arrive, so eventually the outcome is similar, although delayed into early December as a result of the battleground interval.

    We may of course have entirely different output showing up before we actually get to the period in question. This is sadly the state of affairs even today in this still-developing science.

    My local weather was windy and quite cold all day with the occasional flurry of snow leaving a new coating of 2-3 cms by late in the afternoon. Temperatures were around -1 C in our location and closer to +4 C in nearby valleys where the precip was not reaching the ground but could be seen overhead as "virga" but a few sleety mixtures were noted in between those two elevations.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday. 18 November, 2021 ____ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS remain similar to yesterday's discussion, mild to Saturday then colder although returning somewhat to mild or at least near average for a time before an even colder spell develops near the end of this coming week. It will be quite dry in general, and sunshine will not be much different from the seasonal average of 2-2.5 hours a day. Rather windy at times with the westerly dying out to be replaced by a strong northerly, with several later reinforcing shots.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy (south) to overcast (north) with westerly winds diminishing to quite light in the south, and 30-50 km/hr in the north. Highs near 14 C.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and mild with lows 5 to 9 C, some fog or mist patches forming after midnight.

    FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and mild with light westerly breezes, highs 13 to 15 C.

    SATURDAY a rapid change in the weather will be quite noticeable, as a front accelerates southward from Ulster in the morning hours, to central counties by mid-day and the south coast by afternoon. This front could contain a few rain showers more likely to give a brief spell of 3-5 mm rainfalls across the north then more hit or miss towards the southern counties. Once past, the winds will veer from west to north-northwest and become rather gusty at times in the 50-70 km/hr range. Temperatures are likely to stall at about 10-12 C before the front arrives then will fall rather steadily to near 5 C.

    SUNDAY will be breezy and quite cold with the chance of some streamers developing over the Irish Sea. These would be more likely to produce cold rain or hail showers than snow, although it could snow on higher parts of the Wicklow hills. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions with partly cloudy skies, winds north-northeast 50-70 km/hr adding a chill to daytime temperatures of only 5 to 8 C.

    MONDAY will be cold and dry with some sunshine and some cloudy intervals. If winds remain east of due north then the Irish Sea showers could reappear at times but with winds diminishing that process may end for a while by Monday afternoon. Lows -2 to +3 C with some frosts in sheltered inland locations, highs 5 to 8 C.

    TUESDAY will start out cold and frosty again but will turn a bit milder by afternoon, under a mixture of cloud layers and some breaks in the overcast. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

    WEDNESDAY will see a secondary cold front moving through with strong northwest winds developing, wintry showers possible, although mostly of the cold rain or hail variety except on higher slopes, winds 50-80 km/hr and temperatures steady near 4 or 5 C.

    THURSDAY will have somewhat less windy conditions and while cold again, it may try to turn a bit milder by afternoon, in advance of yet another reinforcing cold front. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

    FRIDAY and the weekend of the 27th-28th are likely to be quite cold and there will be some potential for at least localized snow showers, will be dealing with the details as we get closer, but as to the guidance split from yesterday, all forecast models seem to have converged on a similar outlook now (which is not to say they are all right either). If they are correct there will be temperatures not far from freezing and wintry falls from showers in some areas. That cold spell looks like it could moderate slightly before stormier weather develops in a renewed assault of the Atlantic but with remnants of this colder air still around to do battle.

    My local weather on Wednesday was cold (-2 C) and dry with a rather thick high overcast dimming the sun then greeting the rising full moon with a large halo this evening. The aforementioned total eclipse is tomorrow about this same time, looking like we might get glimpses of it through cloud layers. This was the first day of our developing winter season with a freeze all day and no sign of melting (although there are only small amounts of snow on the ground here and there, mostly bare still, and thin coverings on the hills around us). The recovery from the floods and mudslides further west in the province continues with some progress being made and a welcome break in the wind and rain for those working on the situation. It could be a week to a month before all the highways are re-opened which is starting to have a severe impact on the supply chains as Vancouver is the main port for most of western Canada. Meanwhile in the eastern parts of North America, a brief warm spell is ending with colder air rushing in from the west and northwest; some lake effect snow is expected near the Great Lakes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 19 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 Nov 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal, despite today remaining about 4 deg above normal.

    -- Rainfalls will be slight, 10 to 25 per cent of normal.

    -- Sunshine will be near average for this time of year.

    -- Winds will turn northerly and will then alternate between northerly and westerly spells.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and mild, with a bit of drizzle or light rain at times in the southwest. Light to moderate westerly breeezes, and highs 13 to 15 C.

    TONIGHT will remain mild, with some rain or showers moving into the north after midnight. Winds there will start to turn more northwesterly but elsewhere the moderate west-southwest breeze will continue, lows 7 to 9 C.

    SATURDAY will start out mild in the south, turning colder in stages from north to south. Winds will veer from west to north-northwest at about 40 to 70 km/hr and there will be an interval of showery rain with the frontal passage. Temperatures will start out near 8 C north, 10 C central and 12 C southern counties, make little upward progress before falling off to reach 4-7 C by late afternoon.

    SUNDAY will be breezy to windy and cold with bands of sea effect showers likely to form over the central Irish Sea moving into parts of Wicklow and Wexford mainly, with rain or hail showers there. A similar effect could occur in parts of Ulster and Connacht. Otherwise most places will remain dry, partly cloudy and cold with northerly winds 40 to 70 km/hr adding a chill to morning lows near 2 C and afternoon highs near 7 C.

    MONDAY will be less windy especially by afternoon, and it will turn a bit milder after quite a cold start with scattered frost and lows near -2 C; the afternoon highs will be in the 7 to 10 C range. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy.

    TUESDAY will remain rather dull and milder with lows near 3 C and highs near 11 C.

    WEDNESDAY another cold front arrives, this one a bit stronger with the risk of mixed wintry showers developing, especially over higher parts of the north and west, in moderate to strong north-northwest winds. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C but colder at times during heavier wintry showers.

    Once again, this insertion of colder air will be moderated fairly quickly by another turn of winds back to the west, so that Thursday should be slightly milder again, and Friday or Saturday another front will arrive and drop temperatures back to near freezing. This may be a somewhat longer cold interval but most guidance suggests it will be the last of the series before a change to more active and perhaps at times stormy conditions as deep lows begin to form in the Atlantic and move past Ireland towards Scotland. Into early December then it looks quite unsettled but with temperatures somewhat back up again into the 7 to 10 C range, and occasional strong winds expected.

    My local weather on Thursday was overcast with snow, and an accumulation of about 7-8 cms as it continues, making the lunar eclipse a no-show event here (it would just be starting to happen now). It will clear up here by morning but too late to view the eclipse.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 20 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 Nov 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 3 to 4 deg below normal, with the change to colder weather starting later today.

    -- Rainfalls will be slight, 10 to 25 per cent of normal.

    -- Sunshine will be near average for this time of year.

    -- Winds will turn northerly and will then alternate between northerly and westerly spells.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out mild in the southern and central counties, turning colder in stages from north to south. Winds will veer from west to north-northwest at about 40 to 70 km/hr and there will be an interval of showery rain with the frontal passage. Temperatures will start out near 8 C north, 10 C central and 12 C southern counties, make little upward progress before falling off to reach 4-7 C by late afternoon. Expect the cold front and attendant showers around 1-3 p.m. in most central counties and 3-5 p.m. on the south coast.

    TONIGHT will be windy and quite cold with mostly dry conditions but a few isolated showers of rain or hail, in brisk northwest to north winds of 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows around 2 to 4 C.

    SUNDAY will be breezy to windy and cold with bands of sea effect showers likely to form over the central Irish Sea moving into parts of Wicklow and Wexford mainly, with rain or hail showers there. A similar effect could occur in parts of Ulster and Connacht. Otherwise most places will remain dry, partly cloudy and cold with northerly winds 40 to 70 km/hr adding a chill to morning lows near 2 C and afternoon highs near 7 C.

    MONDAY will be less windy especially by afternoon, and it will turn a bit milder after quite a cold start with scattered frost and lows near -2 C; the afternoon highs will be in the 7 to 10 C range. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy.

    TUESDAY will remain rather cloudy and somewhat milder with lows near 3 C and highs near 11 C.

    WEDNESDAY another cold front arrives, this one a bit stronger with the risk of mixed wintry showers developing, especially over higher parts of the north and west, in moderate to strong north-northwest winds. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C but colder at times during heavier wintry showers.

    Once again, this insertion of colder air will be moderated fairly quickly by another turn of winds back to the west, so that Thursday should be slightly milder again, and Friday or Saturday another front will arrive and drop temperatures back to near freezing. This may be a somewhat longer cold interval but most guidance suggests it will be the last of the series before a change to more active and perhaps at times stormy conditions as deep lows begin to form in the Atlantic and move past Ireland towards Scotland. The first of those could arrive by about Monday 29th Nov and its track from the northwest could prolong the cold spell one or two more days with wintry showers in its wake Tuesday 30th, then into early December then it looks quite unsettled but with temperatures somewhat back up again into the 7 to 10 C range, and occasional strong southwest winds possible.

    My local weather on Friday was cloudy with a few glimpses of blue sky and sunshine on hills nearby, with the high barely above freezing, so we had no melting of the 10 cm snowpack but it became a bit sticky and heavy for shovelling. Clearing skies this evening gave a good view of the full moon which would have been more welcomed the previous night. Just a brief follow-up on our recent historic flooding rainstorm (further west than my location), the damage is gradually being repaired but recovery estimates range from days on some highways to weeks or months on others depending on how severe the damage was, and the flood waters that inundated the flat farming areas around Abbotsford will take a week to three weeks to pump out with dikes needing to be repaired -- and there's another significant rainstorm expected on Tuesday. This has made quite a mess of the movement of many commodities between the coast and the interior of the province and beyond into the prairie provinces.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 21 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS continue cold and dry with at least normal amounts of sunshine, and moderate wind speeds.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy and rather cold with northerly winds of 40 to 60 km/hr. A few showers, becoming mixed inland over higher ground, will feed in to parts of Ulster and Connacht, and could appear later in south Leinster although for the morning those will stay out over the Irish Sea. Many places will avoid these and remain dry with highs reaching about 5 to 7 C.

    TONIGHT will be clear and frosty in the south and some central counties, as cloud spreads into parts of the north, keeping overnight lows above freezing there. Lows -2 to +2 C in general.

    MONDAY will become mostly cloudy although some morning sunny breaks are likely across the south. It will turn somewhat milder and there could be outbreaks of light rain or drizzle near the north coast. Highs 7 to 10 C.

    TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with some brighter spells, local drizzle or mist near the Atlantic, and lows -1 to +4 C, highs 7 to 10 C.

    WEDNESDAY will become windy and temperatures will begin to drop around mid-day after reaching highs near 8 C. With northwest to north winds increasing to 50-70 km/hr, temperatures will fall to around 2-4 C and there will be some mixed wintry showers on higher terrain in the north.

    THURSDAY will be breezy to windy at times, and cold, with passing showers, turning mixed or wintry on hills. Lows near -1 C and highs near 6 C. winds northerly 40-60 km/hr.

    FRIDAY will see the winds backing more westerly for a time which could allow temperatures to rise as high as 8 or 9 C, and most shower activity would then be mostly rain only. Later in the day a cold front will arrive dropping temperatures back to the 2-5 C range and mixing the precipitation types again. Winds generally about 50-70 km/hr.

    The WEEKEND of 27th-28th is expected to remain cold and breezy to windy (northerly 50-70 km/hr) with mixed wintry showers, cold enough for snow to settle on higher slopes possibly, but showers remaining mixed rain and hail mostly near sea level, as daytime readings of 3 to 6 C will be rather marginal for snow at lower elevations. Slight frosts likely although wind and cloud will prevent much of a drop in temperature overnight.

    By Monday and Tuesday 29th-30th, the winds will once again back into a more westerly direction bringing temperatures back up slightly into the 7 to 9 C range. From then on, it seems that a similar pattern of brief cold spells and intervening near normal intervals will continue with previous signals for stronger winds and stormy conditions being removed from the longer range guidance for now. Those could return at some point though.

    My local weather on Saturday was overcast with temperatures steady near the freezing point, so that there has been no real melting of any recent snow but some settling and compaction reducing the depths to around 5-8 cms. In areas where recovery work is underway from recent severe flooding, they have about a day and a half of dry weather left before having to cope with the resumption of at least moderate amounts of rain, which will probably fall as snow inland towards my location by about Tuesday.

    So in short, the outlook for Ireland is a little more wintry but not expecting anything to rival 2010 at this point, although some will see a bit of snow mainly on higher slopes above their own elevations perhaps.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 22 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 Nov 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg below normal values.

    -- Rain (or snow) will produce rather small amounts of precipitation perhaps reaching 25 per cent of normal values.

    -- Sunshine may approach normal values with at least some sun expected most days.

    -- Windy at times from the north towards the middle and end of the week.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be sunny to partly cloudy across the southern and central counties with increasing cloud later, while further north it will soon turn mostly cloudy, with isolated wintry showers. Less windy than yesterday but about the same temperatures, if perhaps feeling a bit milder by afternoon with highs 7 to 10 C, after a cold and in some places frosty start. Watch out for black ice conditions on some roads in the midlands and central Leinster until about 0930h.

    TONIGHT will have a few clear intervals in the south where the frost may return, more cloud further north will keep temperatures a bit milder. Lows about -2 C in clear spots and 1 to 4 C elsewhere.

    TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with perhaps a bit of light rain or drizzle at times near the northwest coasts. Highs 7 to 10 C.

    WEDNESDAY will become rather breezy (northerly 40-60 km/hr) with a sleety cold rain expected in some areas for part of the morning, perhaps turning to wet snow on hills. Partial clearing will follow but this will mark the return of colder air from the north, so temperatures after overnight lows of about 1 to 4 C will only rise slightly to the 5 to 7 C range before falling back before the evening hours.

    THURSDAY will be quite cold to start, with morning lows -3 to +2 C, then slightly milder again by afternoon and evening as winds back into a more westerly direction while remaining fairly strong at 40-70 km/hr. Temperatures will edge back up to around 7 C or so. There could be some showers becoming wintry and mixed at times on higher terrain.

    FRIDAY and SATURDAY are currently looking quite wintry especially for Ulster and parts of Connacht, the north midlands and north Leinster, as a strong northerly flow arrives with a "polar low" indicated for Scotland. This may lead to bands of mixed wintry showers dropping considerable snow on hills in northern and some western counties. Temperatures will be in the 1 to 4 C range and winds northerly 50-80 km/hr, possibly gusts to about 100 km/hr in exposed coastal areas of Ulster and north Connacht. These conditions could moderate slightly for Munster and south Leinster but the mixed wintry showers could reach those areas briefly with partly cloudy skies and cold northerly winds otherwise, highs 3 to 6 C.

    By SUNDAY there should be a slight moderation as winds back to northwest, then west, allowing somewhat milder air to flow in raising temperatures a few degrees to the 6-8 C range. MONDAY may be quite mild by comparison to this coming week although given the volatility of the situation I don't really have high confidence in the guidance past about Friday at present. At any rate, especially for the northern parts of the country, expect some rather wintry conditions to develop towards the weekend. It will be significantly colder in all areas than the past two weeks.

    My local weather on Sunday was mostly cloudy with a few patches of blue sky in the distance (to the east) and low cloud hanging over hills to our west, probably dropping snow up there but nothing was falling at our elevation, with temperatures around -2 C. Snow is likely to spread in here later Monday and another 10 cms will probably fall Monday night into Tuesday.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 23 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 Nov 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal values, despite a rise to above normal expected on the 29th.

    -- Rain (or snow) will produce rather small amounts of precipitation perhaps reaching 25 per cent of normal values except for parts of the north which could see closer to 50 per cent.

    -- Sunshine will likely amount to about 75 per cent of normal values.

    -- Windy at times from the north towards the middle and end of the week -- Friday night into Saturday could see northerly gale force winds.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with perhaps a bit of light rain or drizzle at times near the northwest coasts. The inland south will start out frosty with perhaps some sunny breaks although fog may develop and caution advised for black ice lingering on roads in rural parts of west Munster currently below freezing. Temperatures have come up during the night in central counties but a few icy patches could persist in valleys. Highs 7 to 10 C.

    TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy, temperatures could fall slightly after sunset in the inland southeast but elsewhere will be steady at around 5 C until a band of rain arrives from the northwest towards morning.

    WEDNESDAY will become rather breezy (northerly 40-60 km/hr) with a sleety cold rain expected in some areas for part of the morning, perhaps turning to wet snow on hills. Partial clearing will follow but this will mark the return of colder air from the north, so that temperatures after overnight lows of about 1 to 4 C will only rise slightly to the 5 to 7 C range before falling back to around 2 C by the early evening hours.

    THURSDAY will be quite cold to start, with morning lows -3 to +2 C, then slightly milder again by afternoon and evening as winds back into a more westerly direction while remaining fairly strong at 40-70 km/hr. Temperatures will edge back up to around 7 C or so. There could be some showers becoming wintry and mixed at times on higher terrain, both early in the day and towards the middle of Thursday night.

    FRIDAY and SATURDAY are looking quite wintry especially for Ulster and parts of Connacht, the north midlands and north Leinster, as a strong northerly flow arrives with an intense "polar low" indicated for Scotland where winds could exceed 120 km/hr in places. This may lead to bands of mixed wintry showers dropping considerable snow on hills in northern and some western counties. Temperatures will be in the 1 to 4 C range and winds northerly 60-90 km/hr, possibly gusts to about 110 km/hr in exposed coastal areas of Ulster and north Connacht. These conditions would likely moderate slightly for Munster and south Leinster but the mixed wintry showers could reach those areas briefly with partly cloudy skies and cold northerly winds otherwise, highs 3 to 6 C. Travel may become dangerous through parts of Ulster and Connacht by Friday evening into Saturday morning. Conditions for the Irish Sea crossings will not be very good either with the gradient very strong all across Britain as the low drops further south. It will also be a situation of mixed wintry showers with snow on hills for most of Scotland, England and Wales.

    By SUNDAY there should be a slight moderation as winds back to northwest, then west, allowing somewhat milder air to flow in raising temperatures a few degrees to the 6-8 C range. Some sleety light rain may accompany this rise in temperatures, more likely in northern areas, where it could produce local stream flooding from melting snow on hills if enough snow accumulates during the colder spell.

    MONDAY looks quite mild by comparison to this coming week with highs 10 to 12 C, and this may continue into early Tuesday before a slight fall in temperatures sets in for the mid-week period starting around Wed 1st Dec, but this is currently projected to be a relatively tame cold outbreak not lasting too long before a longer mild spell sets in, possibly lasting for some time in the first half of December. There has been a tendency in the past few years for parts of months to resemble trends in previous months so this may indicate a late December wintry spell to arrive before the Christmas - New Year holiday period although mark that as speculation on my part.

    My local weather on Monday was cloudy and cold with no melting of the 5-10 cm snow pack we have now, and highs only around -2 C. Light snow has just begun to fall and should continue intermittently for most of the day to come.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 24 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Nov 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.

    -- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal (including some sleet or snow) in the west and north, 25 to 50 per cent east and south.

    -- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.

    -- Winds will be moderate to strong and mostly from a northwest to north direction, backing more westerly later in the interval.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a band of heavy showers making gradual progress southeast from west Ulster and Connacht, into the midlands and then Leinster and parts of Munster, where it will weaken by mid-day. Rainfalls of 5-10 mm are expected at first from this, diminishing to 2-5 mm as it weakens further east and southeast. There may be some partial clearing after this front passes, at least for parts of Connacht and west Ulster, as winds turn northwest to north 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 7 to 9 C with temperatures falling slowly after the frontal passage.

    TONIGHT will be breezy and cold with a few passing showers of cold rain near sea level, sleet on higher ground. Lows 1 to 3 C. Winds northwest to north 40 to 60 km/hr.

    THURSDAY will be breezy to windy and rather cold with a few outbreaks of light rain, turning sleety on higher ground. Winds northwest 50 to 70 km/hr will back further into the west by evening. Highs 5 to 8 C.

    FRIDAY will start out with a strong west to northwest wind and outbreaks of rain, temperatures steady near 5 C. Later in the day winds will increase and turn more northerly, reaching 70 to 100 km/hr in exposed areas and 50 to 80 km/hr inland. The freezing level will gradually come lower turning some of the frequent cold rain to sleet or wet snow on hills. Some accumulations are likely above 300 metres in Ulster and possibly in the Wicklow mountains and higher portions of Connacht. Temperatures will be in the 2 to 5 C range during the worst of this wintry episode Friday evening and overnight.

    SATURDAY will bring a slow moderation from the harsh windy and wet conditions early on, as winds decrease to the 40-70 km/hr range, staying northerly to northwesterly. Further bands of showers are likely, with rain and hail becoming the main components as freezing levels slowly rise again. Temperatures will be in the 3 to 6 C range, somewhat milder further west.

    SUNDAY will become milder from west to east with bands of light rain marking warm fronts. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C east, 10 C west.

    MONDAY also looks rather mild with occasional light rain and moderate westerly winds, highs near 11 C.

    There will be a slight return to colder temperatures later Tuesday into Wednesday 1st of December but only by a few degrees as winds turn northwest, then milder air will return later in that week and into the weekend of 4-5 December.

    My local weather on Tuesday was overcast and somewhat misty with a bit of light snow in the morning, accumulations only around 1-2 cm, then freezing drizzle as temperatures edged up to near zero C.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 25 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the interval of 25 Nov to 1 Dec remain about the same as discussed for several days, rather cold to Sunday, milder thereafter, and the blend will average 1 to 3 deg below normal; precipitation will be somewhat heavier than we've seen in most recent intervals but still not reaching a normal amount except possibly in parts of the northwest; sunshine will be a little less than the meagre average expected in late November, and it will be quite windy, especially on Friday night.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy with some areas getting fairly generous amounts of sunshine, while a few showers feed into the north and make some progress into the midlands before dying out. Winds rather blustery from the north-northwest at 50-70 km/hr will back to the west by evening in advance of a frontal system. That will introduce the chance of rain in the north by late afternoon or early evening. Highest temperatures around 7 or 8 C but it may feel colder due to the wind.

    TONIGHT will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain, turning sleety on higher terrain. The cold front will arrive about 0300h in northern Ulster so most places will maintain a steady temperature of about 3-5 C and could see a slight rise before that front pushes south. Winds westerly 50-70 km/hr.

    FRIDAY will become colder from north to south around mid-morning to mid-day, but temperatures could struggle up to about 7 C in the south before the front hits there. Further north it is likely to stay around 3 or 4 C all day. Winds will be moderate from the northwest until mid-afternoon and then start increasing to strong or even very strong in exposed locations, as deep low pressure forms over eastern Britain and drops south along their east coast. Winds will veer to a more northerly direction and speeds will reach 60-90 km/hr in many places, 70-110 km/hr in exposed locations near coasts. There will be some bands of mixed wintry showers forming in this strong northerly flow and these could drop some snow on hills by Friday evening, as temperatures inland settle to around 1 or 2 C. The marine influence could keep readings closer to 4-5 C in coastal areas.

    SATURDAY will see the reverse sequence as the storm weakens and moves away into Belgium, so that by mid-day the northerly winds will have subsided back to the moderate 50-70 km/hr range. It will stay quite cold in most eastern counties with a very slight warming trend in the west, mostly due to the wind backing to a northwest direction off the Atlantic which is of course quite a bit warmer (8-10 C) than these air temperatures in the 2-5 C range. Any snow that accumulates on northern hills will partially melt but some will still be around by Sunday morning. Saturday night is likely to remain quite cold in the east while a foggy, drizzly warm front edges into the western counties.

    SUNDAY will become foggy and milder in most areas with light rain or drizzle at times. Highs may reach 8-10 C in the west but could be held down to around 4-6 C in the east, although it may get milder in the evening there.

    MONDAY will be quite mild, despite a change in wind direction from southwest to northwest, the feed of the air mass is from the central Atlantic so temperatures will be more similar then to the ocean temperatures of 8-10 C. TUESDAY will stay relatively mild with a colder end to the day as another rather cold wedge of arctic origin drifts past on Wednesday, perhaps dropping temperatures back a few degrees, but this won't likely be as cold as the weekend. After that, alternating mild and cold spells will probably average out near the early December normal temperatures.

    My local weather on Wednesday was overcast and chilly with a bit of freezing drizzle at times, so rather slippery underfoot and on side streets that have been plowed but have a slick snow cover. Temperatures were probably within a degree of freezing at all times. We are expecting a fairly heavy wet snow changing to rain as the next Pacific storm moves inland on Thursday. Flood ravaged areas in recovery are bracing for this impact, which by itself would just be a normal late November storm but they don't need that much rainfall (expecting 80 mm in places).



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 26 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 26 Nov to 2 Dec 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values, rather cold to Sunday especially eastern counties, then a little milder than average next week.

    -- Rainfalls will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal values in the north and west, decreasing to about 50 per cent for the east and south coasts.

    -- Sunshine will be rather sparse and could only reach half of the normal amounts.

    -- Very windy at times later today and early Saturday, after which mostly moderate northwest backing to west or southwest later in the period.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be windy with a gradual increase in wind speeds this afternoon although it is already quite windy now, northwest 50-80 km/hr may increase to northerly 60-100 km/hr. Passing showers will sometimes be rather squally and blustery, with brief brighter intervals too. Temperatures will slowly drop from current levels of 7-10 C to about 4-6 C by late afternoon. It will feel more like -2 C in the strong winds.

    TONIGHT the strong northerly winds will continue with strongest gusts near the east coast and across exposed (especially hilly) areas of the west and north. Winds northerly 70-110 km/hr, some minor damage possible, in part because these winds will be coming from a direction that strong winds do not often take, possibly stressing trees or small structures in unusual ways. Bands of mixed wintry showers may develop although most of the ongoing showers will remain as cold rain or hail. One or two showers could produce lightning too. Some accumulations of wet snow on higher terrain mostly above where most people live, but impacting mountain passes in west Ulster and north Connacht. Temperatures steady 4-6 C for most areas, could drop to 2-4 C at times near wintry showers.

    SATURDAY the wind will slowly moderate, staying in a north-northwest direction and back down to the current 50-80 km/hr range by mid-day. Temperatures will remain around 4-6 C for most, perhaps a bit higher on Atlantic coasts, but it will continue to feel much colder than that. Further mixed wintry showers on hills will transition back to all rain later. Closer to sea level, rain or hail showers are more likely. Some sunny breaks will also be in the mix, especially further west. Note: this has been named storm "Arwen" by the UK Met Office and parts of Britain will have more severe impacts than Ireland, in particular the east coast where tidal surges may inundate some areas, and winds could gust to 130 km/hr. Wales will also feel strong impacts from this event. Irish Sea crossings for Friday and Saturday will be rough with strong crosswinds.

    SUNDAY will be less windy and slightly milder at least in western counties. A small and not very well organized "slider" event could drop down from the northwest along the nearly stalled front and produce sleet or wet snow for a time on higher ground in Connacht and Ulster. There will be fog, mist and drizzle closer to the southwest coasts. In the southeast this precipitation may only be patchy and late in arriving, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs will range from about 4-6 C in the north and east, to 8-10 C in the southwest. All areas will have morning lows in the 2-5 C range.

    MONDAY and TUESDAY will be breezy and relatively mild with outbreaks of light rain but also some brighter spells, in west to northwest winds of about 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

    WEDNESDAY will turn a few degrees colder again with northwest winds veering northerly for a time, isolated showers and highs 6-8 C. THURSDAY will see milder air working its way back in from the west, with somewhat cooler temperatures holding on in Ulster and parts of Leinster, highs there in the range of 7-9 C, but near 11 C west and south.

    The first two weeks of December are currently looking somewhat variable but generally a bit milder than average, with alternating cool spells and near normal to mild days. For this time of year, it does not look overly wet or active, but a more active spell is likely after about the 10th peaking in intensity towards the 20th of December.

    My local weather on Thursday was overcast with a few intervals of wet snow by afternoon, perhaps 2-3 cms new accumulation but this snow is sleety and looks set to change to rain or ice pellets for a while before the whole mess clears off to our east later Friday. Quite cold on the east coast of the U.S. and through the Great Lakes region for the "black Friday" shopping phase of American thanksgiving. Snow is expected in parts of interior New England and near the lower Great Lakes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 27 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    Most of the trends will average out near normal with variations more day to day. Will do the forecast blog format today ...

    Storm Arwen has proven to be a very strong windstorm in parts of Scotland and northeast England, even across the Pennines into Cumbria, Lancs and parts of Wales; gusts to 130 km/hr have been widespread in exposed areas, and a heavy wet snow has fallen over much of that area with some reports of 5-10 cm on the ground. The storm is going to rage on for most of today, extending the strong wind zone into the east Midlands, and threatening some parts of the east coast with damaging storm surges. But in Ireland, except for some parts of Ulster, the effects of Arwen have been relatively tame with winds peaking at most locations at around 80 km/hr (some exposed northern areas saw 100 km/hr and Malin Head topped 120 km/hr).

    There won't be much change for the rest of the day as Ireland remains in a moderately strong north-northwest flow, and further showers feed in from the Atlantic, having more impact on Ulster and parts of Connacht as their remnants further south will be brief. Any given shower cell could produce hail and some over hills could produce snow, one or two might release a bolt of lightning. But there will also be sunny intervals which may be fairly significant in the south today. Highs will reach about 4 to 6 C so it will feel quite cold due to the 50-80 km/hr winds.

    Tonight and Sunday, the cold air is going to prove rather stubborn to leave most of Ulster, the midlands, and Leinster, despite a weak push of milder air into west Munster and coastal Connacht. A weak disturbance moving southeast along this frontal boundary could bring intervals of sleet (mixed rain and snow) but there would only be small accumulations and mostly on higher ground. Temperatures overnight and Sunday will remain fairly steady in the range of 2 to 5 C, but the strong winds will relent and that will ease the chill somewhat. Milder air will bring temperatures up gradually in west Munster and coastal Connacht to around 7 to 9 C; some fog, light rain or drizzle is likely with that warming trend.

    Monday the colder air over eastern counties will finally be shoved east and any lingering sleet or wet snow should change to intermittent light rain as temperatures warm to around 9 C. Further west it could reach 11 C with occasional outbreaks of light rain possible, but partly cloudy intervals also. The winds on Monday will pick up again to westerly 40-60 km/hr. Tuesday the first half of the day will be mild and dry, then a frontal band of rain will sweep in from the northwest, 5 to 10 mm likely, and winds will begin to veer more to the northwest by evening, staying in the 40-60 km/hr range. Highs on Tuesday generally around 10 C.

    Wednesday will become quite cold again in a brisk northwest wind reaching 50-70 km/hr. There will be passing showers of rain or hail, more persistent near the Atlantic coasts. Highs 5 to 7 C.

    Thursday will start out cold and in some places a bit on the frosty side but milder air will slowly seep in from the west, so that temperatures by evening could be back up around 8 to 10 C. This mild wedge will remain over Ireland until mid-day Friday when a slightly colder flow will arrive, so temperatures will remain mild until then, dropping back to 4-6 C later Friday. Although it will try to warm up slowly in a weak southerly flow next weekend, the main energy of the jet stream will split around a developing blocking high over Scandinavia, and this may stall the warming trend at around 7 or 8 C and then allow a slight drop as some of that colder air seeps in (very gradually as the gradients will be very slack) around Monday or Tuesday (6th-7th Dec). No really wintry cold will develop although there could be one or two frosty mornings, but then the Atlantic will regain energy and come blasting back in towards the end of that week with the potential for strong or even severe winds indicated (for around Friday 9th into the weekend of 11th-12th).

    My local weather started out with a shower of snow pellets and low cloud, in fact going down into the Columbia valley cloud was based lower than our local elevation here, but down there almost no snow had accumulated over the past few days and there were light rain showers before a clearing trend set in. Highs reached about 6 C in the valley and 3 C up here, with a bit of our snow melting but more of a slushy impact. Another strong storm is moving in from the Pacific and will last through the weekend on the coast, the outcome here will be intervals of sleet and cold rain perhaps ending with some snow again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 28 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 28 Nov to 4 Dec 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values, possibly a bit below in the east and slightly above in the west.

    -- Rainfalls will average about 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

    -- Sunshine will average near normal.

    -- Winds generally moderate and from west to northwest directions much of the time.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of sleety light rain in central counties, trending to mist and drizzle further west. It will remain rather cold in the east and north with highs 4 to 6 C. Somewhat milder by afternoon in the west and parts of the south, highs 8 to 10 C. Some wet snow or sleet on hills.

    TONIGHT the weak warm front will make limited progress and may be pushed back west for a time, so that temperatures will remain divided, 2 to 4 C in the east, and 5 to 8 C in the west. Some further drizzle or light sleet possible.

    MONDAY will see the frontal boundary slowly pushing back to the east, expelling the last remaining cold air by afternoon from the east and north. By late in the day all areas should be in a milder air mass with occasional outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, highs near 10 C.

    TUESDAY will start out dry and mild, with highs near 10 C. Then a frontal band will move in with an interval of showery rainfalls (5-10 mm), as temperatures drop steadily to near 4 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be windy and colder with passing showers of hail or sleet, morning lows 1-3 C and afternoon highs 5-7 C.

    THURSDAY the colder air will hold on for a time, as milder air seeps into western counties, so that by mid-day temperatures will be typically 4-6 C in the east but 8-10 C further west. Some light rain could develop, followed by a steady rainfall overnight in milder southwesterly winds.

    FRIDAY a slight cooling trend will return and temperatures will fall back slowly to around 7 C with outbreaks of light rain, but brighter spells by afternoon.

    The following weekend should see fairly mild conditions in the west, and cold in the east, as a chilly air mass over central and northern Europe extends its influence slowly west for a while, in advance of a rather stormy interval that is expected to develop in the following week. Details on that are quite sketchy at this early stage but there may be quite a bit of cold air around to interact with these stronger Atlantic disturbances which could lead to frontal boundary snowfalls for some parts of Ireland, more likely north and east.

    My local weather on Saturday started out overcast and rather foggy with temperatures near +1 C. Wet snow began at mid-day and was largely melting on contact, so the accumulations were quite slushy and since sunset this has changed over to light rain as temperatures edged up to +3 C. Heavy rain is falling in the areas recently hit by floods and mudslides, crews are working at a fever pitch to reinforce some dikes in the worst hit areas. The outcome of that will not be known until later tomorrow. Then there's a brief break before yet another rainstorm hits on Tuesday.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 29 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values with a cold interval mid-week, but milder both early and late in the period.

    -- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

    -- Sunshine will also average about 50 to 75 per cent of normal.

    -- Moderate wind speeds most of the time, often west to northwest in direction.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, with a few outbreaks of light rain or drizzle in the east this morning until a warm front slowly pushes through. Temperatures will edge upwards to about 10 or 11 C in many areas by afternoon and remain fairly close to that in the evening hours.

    TONIGHT will see a bit of light rain or drizzle and mist, with lows 4 to 7 C.

    TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with a dry start, then intervals of rain, heavy at times in Ulster and north Connacht where 15-25 mm could fall but more showery in the 5-10 mm range further south, also the rain will be mostly during the overnight hours in the south and east. Highs 10 to 12 C.

    WEDNESDAY will become rather cold with northwest winds of 40 to 70 km/hr and passing showers, some with hail and thunder, and a touch of snow on some hills. Morning lows 2 to 5 C and afternoon highs 5 to 8 C.

    THURSDAY will have a cold and frosty start in the east and midlands, lows near -3 C. Highs will reach about 8 to 10 C as milder air slowly returns from the west. Showers or intervals of rain by evening. Temperatures will stay fairly mild overnight then drop gradually towards morning.

    FRIDAY will become slightly colder again with partly cloudy to overcast skies and highs near 8 C.

    The pattern from then on will be rather variable with some cold days, and some closer to average, but probably not getting very mild as winds will keep turning west to northwest soon after any slight warmings take place.

    My local weather on Sunday turned quite mild (8-10 C) with a bit of light rain at times, slushy now as snow begins to melt gradually.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 30 November, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the week of 30 Nov to 6 Dec 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.

    -- Rainfall will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal values.

    -- Sunshine will average near normal.

    -- Winds will be moderate west to northwest much of the time, potential exists for strong winds near end of the interval.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be cloudy and mild, with outbreaks of rain starting soon in Ulster, spreading by afternoon into north Connacht and parts of the midlands. This rain will then quickly overspread most of Leinster and Munster this evening. Becoming rather windy with the rain's arrival, southwest to west at 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs 10 to 12 C.

    TONIGHT will see the showery band of rain quickly moving south, followed by colder northwest winds 40-70 km/hr, and some wintry showers in parts of the north by morning. Lows 2 to 5 C, mildest south coast.

    WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy and cold with passing showers, often turning to hail with snow on higher slopes. Winds northwest 40-70 km/hr adding a chill to daytime highs of only 4 to 8 C.

    THURSDAY will start with a widespread frost and lows near -3 C. The middle portions of the day will be dry, breezy and mostly cloudy with temperatures slowly rising through the 4 to 7 C range. Temperatures may peak near 9 C in the evening when it begins to rain.

    FRIDAY the early morning rain will quickly move east, and as winds become more northwesterly, somewhat colder air will arrive, so that temperatures will be around 5 C by daybreak, and only rise slightly to about 7 C during the day, with winds west-northwest 50-80 km/hr, and by afternoon or evening there could be an outbreak of rain turning to sleet on higher ground, as a disturbance forms in this northwesterly flow. Some coatings of snow may develop on hills Friday night.

    SATURDAY will continue quite cold and breezy (west-northwest 40-60 km/hr) with some brighter spells and passing wintry showers, lows near -1 C and highs near 4 C.

    SUNDAY will be less breezy and there may be widespread dry intervals but with some sleety light rain approaching western counties by afternoon. Lows near -3 C and highs near 6 C.

    MONDAY there will likely be a sleety rainfall during the overnight and morning hours, with partial clearing to follow. Highs near 7 C.

    The outlook for the rest of next week is somewhat uncertain, with some guidance showing very strong southwest to west winds developing around mid-week, but this is too far off to expect much agreement among various models. The pattern beyond that possible event looks like a continuation of the rather cold and windy west to northwest flow of modified arctic air much of the time, so the long range forecast for December currently looks like this, frequently rather cold and showery, occasionally stormy, likely to see a lot of mixed wintry showers and probably a snowfall or two eventually, with temperatures 1 to 2 deg below normal and precipitation 25 to 50 per cent above normal.

    My local weather on Monday started gloomy with light rain and mild temperatures. The cloud base came down so low that we found ourselves in dense fog driving down into the Columbia valley, breaking out of that near the river. Then that low overcast began to break up and by afternoon back up top the weather had turned sunny, with an interval of odd looking fog clouds draped across the valley below, a very bright white colour with grey scud in the distance obscuring any hills in that direction, but turned around the view was blue skies and hills covered in snow, although most of the snow has melted in the town now (there was never much down in the valley and that had all gone by lunch time). Highs were close to 10 C. At the coast this break represented the gap between the departing rainstorm and the next one incoming, as the fight against further flooding continues. Expecting a sleety wet snow to begin here later Tuesday turning to rain overnight.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 1 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 Dec 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg below normal values.

    -- Rainfalls will average about 75 per cent of normal; there is some chance of a heavier total for west Munster (see forecast discussion Tues-Wed)

    -- Sunshine will average near normal, which is only about 2 hours a day now.

    -- Winds will continue moderately strong from the northwest, sometimes backing westerly. Again, there is a chance of an interval of very strong winds, see the same discussion.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy, breezy and cold with passing showers, often turning to hail with snow on higher slopes. Winds northwest 50-80 km/hr adding a chill to daytime highs of only 4 to 8 C.

    TONIGHT the winds will moderate and showers will die out, with a resulting risk of frost in many places, lows -3 to +1 C.

    THURSDAY will start with a widespread frost and lows near -3 C. The middle portions of the day will be dry, breezy and mostly cloudy with temperatures slowly rising through the 4 to 7 C range. Temperatures may peak near 9 C in the evening when it begins to rain.

    FRIDAY the early morning rain will quickly move east, and as winds become more northwesterly, somewhat colder air will arrive, so that temperatures will be around 5 C by daybreak, and only rise slightly to about 7 C during the day, with winds west-northwest 50-80 km/hr, and by afternoon or evening there could be an outbreak of rain turning to sleet on higher ground, as a disturbance forms in this northwesterly flow. Some coatings of snow may develop on hills Friday night.

    SATURDAY will continue quite cold and breezy (west-northwest 40-60 km/hr but 60-90 km/hr in Ulster and some parts of coastal Connacht, west Munster) with some brighter spells and passing wintry showers, lows near -1 C and highs near 4 C in the north, 6 C south.

    SUNDAY will be less breezy and there may be widespread dry intervals but with some sleety light rain approaching western counties by afternoon. Lows near -3 C and highs near 6 C north, 8 C south.

    MONDAY there will likely be a sleety rainfall during the overnight and morning hours, with partial clearing to follow. Highs near 7 C.

    TUESDAY we are faced with a large spread of guidance from various forecast models. Two sources (European, Canadian GEM) develop a very strong low west of Ireland and that would track across Munster into northern France. The results of that would be strong winds mostly from the east to northeast (possibly westerly for Kerry, Cork coasts) and a sleety but heavy rainfall that would turn to heavy snow on hills. Other models including U.S. (GFS), UKMO, and Japanese (JMA) do not develop this storm and continue with moderate westerly flow and temperatures in the same range of 6 to 9 C. Yet other models do not go past Monday but looking at the end of their guidance I don't get much of a hint of this storm's sudden appearance. This situation will no doubt converge on one solution by tomorrow. The GFS model comes with an "ensemble" of thirty possible outcomes run from slightly different biases, and those tend to split 2:1 in favour of the no storm outcome, but the uncertainty factor is high by Tues-Wed with a difference of over 30 mbs shown for the ensembles near Ireland by then. You'll notice that Met Eireann are also uncertain about this possible outcome and say that it may become windy later Tuesday.

    If the strong low did materialize, its effects would be felt for most of Wednesday before clearing from the north, and a brief interval of cool east winds, then back to the chilly westerly flow off the Atlantic later in the week. If the storm fails to materialize, then the chilly westerly pattern would simply continue on all week. Here again, hoping to have a bit more certainty on this odd situation by tomorrow's forecast message.

    It could be that the compromise solution that all models might wander towards would be a moderately strong low that tracks more west to east and brings an interval of stronger westerly winds. Not saying this is my forecast for those two days, but something has to give when the normally reliable model suite goes into this mode of warring factions. In such cases, solutions are usually fairly close to what one camp is saying, but you can also get third option compromises sometimes.

    My local weather remained mild and damp all day with temperatures in the 5-7 C range. They continue to deal with localized flooding problems in coastal parts of BC but the good news is that a pattern shift is expected once this present low moves on late today, and the new trend will be a colder and drier pattern where only small amounts of precipitation will occur and much of that would be snow except right along the coast. That should allow all of the currently raging rivers to subside back to more normal flows within a week.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 2 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 Dec 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal.

    -- Rainfalls will average near normal and possibly a little above normal in parts of Munster.

    -- Sunshine will average about 25 per cent above normal.

    -- Winds often moderately strong northwesterly may become gale or storm force at times next week, from west or southwest.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be less windy and the passing showers have pretty much died out for the time being. After some brighter spells this morning, around mid-day increasing cloud will signal the approach of a disturbance for the overnight hours, with winds slowly increasing again. Highs 7 to 9 C.

    TONIGHT will become rather windy and cold with outbreaks of rain turning to sleet over northern hills, lows 2 to 5 C. Winds increasing to westerly 40 to 70 km/hr then northwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

    FRIDAY will see a temporary decrease in these strong winds and brief dry intervals before outbreaks of rain in the south, turning sleety on hills there. Northern counties may remain dry but then a second disturbance will move in there by late afternoon. A few places in between these two will be waiting for any rain to begin up to almost midnight. Highs will reach about 7 to 9 C. By Friday night, the northern disturbance will drop southeast into the Irish Sea and will drag along some mixed wintry showers in a strengthening northwest wind reaching 50-80 km/hr by morning. Lows near 2 C.

    SATURDAY will be windy and quite cold with passing mixed wintry showers, some hail and thunder likely at lower elevations, snow on some hills. Winds northwest 60-90 km/hr will bring a chill along with the temperatures steady near 4 C. These strong winds will abate slowly overnight into early Sunday.

    SUNDAY there will be some dry intervals and slightly milder temperatures around 7 to 9 C again, followed by outbreaks of light rain, lasting into early Monday with temperatures steady 3 to 5 C.

    MONDAY will likely be a fairly unsettled day in moderate southwest to west winds, with highs near 7 C.

    TUESDAY the models now have reached more or less agreement on stormy weather being likely, but those models with the southeast track and east winds have phased more into the zonal flow and southwest to west winds eventually, although as the disturbance approaches the strong winds could start off southeasterly for a time. Details are still emerging on this rather complex set up but there seems to be potential for a strong wind event to develop in some parts of the country with different models now showing different regions under that threat, so at this point it looks like at least some parts of Ireland will have gale or even storm force wind gusts, probably from a southwest to west direction. Temperatures seem likely to stay in the same range as previous days, 7 to 10 C. Heavy rain is possible with this disturbance too. It could be a two-day event lasting well into Wednesday before it moves off to the east or northeast.

    There are still indications of further storm development after that one comes and goes, but the details that far out can be shelved for now as we await a better understanding of what this first storm is going to do.

    My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy and mild with highs near 10 C. Some valley locations further west got well up into the teens and even hit 20 C in a few places in the Okanagan valley setting date and even all-time December records. We're having a pretty memorable weather year here. This is the last gasp of the parade of Pacific storms which will now relax for a while and let high pressure take over, eventually we will see a drop below freezing from the current mild levels.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 3 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS may indeed be similar to those discussed yesterday, but there is so much uncertainty about the details of Tuesday's potential stormy weather that we can't really be very precise about these trends beyond Monday.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter spells most likely in north central counties. An area of light rain will overspread the southern half of the country later this morning and will then move out during the afternoon after dropping 5-10 mm rainfalls and some sleet on hills. Parts of the north will escape this altogether. Then a separate frontal system approaching from the northwest will arrive in western and northern counties towards late afternoon with increasing wind speeds and showery rainfalls. Highs for most areas around 8 or 9 C.

    TONIGHT will become windy and colder with rain turning to sleet on northern higher ground. Winds will increase to northwest 50-80 km/hr before daybreak. Lows 1 to 3 C.

    SATURDAY will be windy and cold with passing showers of hail or in some higher areas, sleet. Some lightning may be produced by these showers. There will also be bright sunny intervals between the showers. Winds northwest 60 to 90 km/hr, and highs 4 to 6 C.

    SUNDAY will start out rather cold and frosty but may turn a bit milder by afternoon as the cold northwest winds relax and back to west then southwest. A few outbreaks of light rain will be mostly confined to western coastal counties. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 6 to 10 C.

    MONDAY will have some early morning rain from a weak frontal wave moving through, then fresh westerly winds and temperatures steady in the range of 5 to 8 C.

    By Monday night into TUESDAY, we have the full range of model uncertainty on display and you can choose any forecast you want. Most of the guidance shows rather intense low pressure near Ireland and there is every chance of a named storm and damaging wind gusts for at least coastal areas. But there are other solutions offered that show this powerful storm developing further south and moving into any part of England or even France, outcomes that might give a considerably less intense scenario for Ireland ranging from variable wind directions and heavy rain, to no stormy weather at all. The highest probability outcome is probably the one where low pressure intensifies west of Ireland and tracks through Ulster into the north Irish Sea, then possibly southeast or at least east-southeast across parts of England. That would bring intervals of very strong winds 80 to 120 km/hr and bursts of heavy showery rain with temperatures in the 7 to 10 C range. The more southerly tracks could bring heavier rainfalls and less intense winds with temperatures a bit lower especially in the north and west on the colder side of that kind of storm.

    Once this disturbance comes and goes, another front will likely follow in from the Atlantic by mid-week with further rainfalls and moderate southwest to west winds. There could be a reload situation for a second storm within a few days of that too. Quite a volatile weather pattern is developing, driven by a tight jet stream being forced further south across the Atlantic by developments in North America where the storm track is also intensifying and dropping southward.

    My local weather on Thursday featured sunshine and patchy high clouds, with mild temperatures near 6 C. Under clear skies it has become quite cold now and a much colder week lies ahead with snow at times along the U.S. border as lows will now track into the region across WA and OR into southern Idaho and Wyoming. This will put an end to the flooding and give crews better conditions to complete recovery work but the one problem may be that any lingering floodwater could freeze. The snowfalls should be relatively light, in the 5-10 cm range for most places. The first of these will start in coastal areas later today and spread into my neck of the woods by Saturday morning. Another one is due on Tuesday or so, in between clear and quite cold.

    If I see anything resembling guidance consensus for Tuesday, whatever that turns out to be, I will post an evening update, otherwise perhaps there will be a clearer idea where this potential storm is going by tomorrow morning's ramble.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 4 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 Dec 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal.

    -- Rainfalls will average 25 per cent above normal.

    -- Sunshine will average near normal values with a mix of sunny and cloudy days.

    -- Winds will often be rather strong and could be very strong at times on Tuesday (as well as today in places).


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will become very windy from north to south this morning, with squally showers of hail and even snow on some higher ground. The northwest winds of 60 to 100 km/hr will make the already cold temperatures feel bitter as current values fall back to around 3-4 C with wind chill values around -3 C. Some accumulations of hail or snow on roads could make for some hazardous driving conditions and bright sunlight nearby won't help matters. Be prepared for sudden changes in the weather if you plan to be out today, especially if travelling through central or northern counties.

    TONIGHT will see these strong winds gradually moderating and bands of wintry showers will slowly die out, leading to some local frosts under partly cloudy skies. Lows -2 to +3 C.

    SUNDAY will be much less windy and temperatures will moderate slightly, so it will feel considerably milder at 6-8 C. Winds moderate northwest at first will back to west then southwest as a trough approaches by evening. Rain will spread into the west around sunset.

    MONDAY will start with moderate southwest winds and intervals of rain (3-5 mm) then partial clearing for a time, still rather moderate winds backing to southerly, morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs 7-9 C.

    By MONDAY night stormy weather will spread into many areas with southwest winds 70-110 km/hr likely, and rain in many areas, 10-20 mm expected by morning. Overnight temperatures steady around 8 C.

    TUESDAY, the most likely outcome appears to be that the low will move into northern counties during the morning and then move southeast. This will expose west Munster and the south coast to the strongest winds and gusts to 130 km/hr are possible there. At the same time, this track will mean that parts of Connacht might see the opposite trend, the strong overnight winds might be reduced to near calm for a while as the centre of the low moves across, to be followed by gusty northeast to northerly winds later. Leinster and Ulster will see winds backing to southeast as the low tracks past them to the south, with bands of rain or even sleet likely to be persistent there. Some squally showers and thunderstorms could develop in the southeast. Eventually most places will see temperatures falling after any brief incursions of milder air from the Atlantic (could be 10-12 C in west Munster for part of the day), and by afternoon and evening temperatures will be 3-6 C. Rainfalls of 20-40 mm are possible, and some accumulating wet snow on hills.

    While this is my best guess as to how the storm plays out, it could track further north and drag strong winds and milder temperatures further into the midlands or even central and south Leinster, or it could drop southeast earlier and have a less windy outcome for most regions but a more wintry mixed precipitation field too. I expect further changes in the guidance so that no forecasts for Tuesday and Wednesday can be called more than moderately confident at this point.

    By WEDNESDAY with the storm drifting off towards Cornwall and/or France, Ireland will be left in a rather brisk northerly flow. The further evolution remains in some doubt, one possible outcome would be that the winds would back around to northeast and east for a time. Another model solution shows another weaker system pushing in behind the Tuesday storm and keeping the weather unsettled with another round of southeast winds and rain or sleet. Either way it seems like temperatures from Wednesday to about Friday could be rather cold, in the 4-7 C range. Beyond that almost anything could happen and I am taking a wait and see approach, as blocking high pressure and an active Atlantic storm track will have further battles to fight, with perhaps quite a range of weather as a result.

    My local weather on Friday was overcast, rather cold but dry, with temperatures near -2 C. Snow is moving in tonight. We're expecting about 15 cms by late Saturday here.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 5 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    ADVANCE ALERT issued for stormy conditions in some parts of the country on Tuesday, southwest and south coast should be on high alert despite a lot of guidance showing the storm tracking into Connacht; strongest winds will be south of the storm track in any case, but there are some shifts towards the south in guidance overnight, with other elements holding to previous indications. We cannot rule out very strong winds in any region yet, so be alert for further forecast updates.

    TRENDS remain similar to yesterday, rather cold, unsettled, some sunshine in the mix, and very windy at times.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will see a welcome drop in wind speeds and this will make it feel warmer even though temperatures are only going to recover slightly with highs around 7 to 9 C, partly cloudy to overcast skies, and some isolated outbreaks of light rain. A more organized rainfall will begin in the west towards the end of the daytime hours.

    TONIGHT will bring rain and stronger winds again, for a time, southwest to west 50-70 km/hr. Lows near 3 C. About 5-10 mm of rain expected.

    MONDAY is definitely the "calm before the storm" with winds remaining moderate until evening, backing to southerly by afternoon. Some sunny intervals and a scattering of showers near Atlantic coasts mainly, highs 7-10 C.

    MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY a powerful Atlantic storm will develop rapidly off the coast and move in by Tuesday morning. The track is still not certain and all parts of the Atlantic coast should be on alert for a risk of strong and possibly damaging wind gusts. The chances seem somewhat higher in central and southwest regions as many sources of guidance indicate a landfall near Galway and the strongest winds are always some distance south of the landfall in these storms. But that could change closer to the time. In any case, what seems fairly certain is that all regions will see increasing south to southwest winds reaching 60-100 km/hr, rain becoming heavy at times, and temperatures steady 8-10 C, during the storm approach.

    By mid-day TUESDAY some areas will be feeling the force of 90-130 km/hr winds from a westerly direction as the low moves inland (probably), and there is even some potential for gusts into the 150 km/hr range and localized need for red alerts. That could be anywhere from about Galway Bay south to the Kerry-Cork coastal regions and including the Shannon estuary. If the storm came inland over Clare then there is greater potential for damaging winds to extend inland as they did with Darwin in Feb 2014. But that is a hypothetical consideration at this stage. Coastal flooding is quite likely where the strongest winds occur as the tidal range will remain high for several more days. Temperatures would likely start to come down slowly towards 5 C, and areas north and east of the low's track would see much less windy conditions and a steady rainfall of 10-25 mm. Squally showers and localized thunderstorms could occur south of the low's track.

    By TUESDAY night into WEDNESDAY, the storm will be in a slowly weakening phase and likely moving through some part of Britain, possibly in a southeast direction, which will mean that winds could come around to a northeast direction fairly quickly in parts of Ulster and Leinster, more north to northwest for Connacht and Munster. With this wind shift will come rather cold temperatures in the 2-5 C range and sleety bands of rain, hail and local hill snows. Winds will be in the 50-80 km/hr range once the core of the storm has passed.

    By THURSDAY a secondary disturbance will be pushing in against whatever force of east winds remains, possibly not very much so that another interval of southeast to southwest winds will develop, but this disturbance will only produce moderate wind gusts in the 50-70 km/hr range, and 5-10 mm rainfalls with temperatures likely to edge up to around 7 C.

    The pattern beyond that looks more settled and somewhat milder, but with a low confidence attached since this powerful storm needs to play out its full hand before the models can really get a grip on those further developments.

    My local weather on Saturday was overcast with about 8 cms of snow by 1100h, after which it slowly cleared up with temperatures steady around -3 C. It looks lovely outside now with all the bare ground and dirt covered up for the time being. Meanwhile, your Tuesday storm is currently a fast-moving "wave" of low pressure south of Newfoundland close to a very strong gradient in sea surface temperatures, with the 20 C contour being close to 40 deg N latitude in the western Atlantic. The low pressure wave will continue to move steadily east, slowly gaining intensity today and Monday, and is expected to undergo explosive development around 25 to 20 W longitude near 52N latitude. The M6 buoy will hopefully give us indications of what is happening out there on Monday night. But forecasts could change before that, stay tuned.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 6 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland


    ALERT for very strong winds across most southern counties, especially strong for west Munster, developing Tuesday morning and peaking around early afternoon. Widespread moderate to heavy rainfalls of 20 to 35 mm are expected also, all in association with storm Barra. Some squally showers with hail and thunder may sweep through the south and some central counties. Coastal flooding is likely in Galway Bay, and various other exposed areas of the southwest and south coasts. Impacts somewhat more moderate for Dublin and most of Leinster, Ulster.

    TRENDS remain the same, rather cold, somewhat above normal rainfalls, and little by way of sunshine, with moderate to strong winds most of the time.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will see an improving trend after morning showers and gusty westerly winds abate, with some pleasant sunny intervals to follow, and just moderate westerly breezes backing to southerly later. Highs 7 to 9 C.

    TONIGHT will become windy around midnight after some eastern counties see a brief frosty interval, and temperatures will slowly rise in most areas or remain steady further west, in advance of stronger winds developing towards morning, south to southwest 70-110 km/hr in exposed south and west coast locations, and 40-70 km/hr for most other locations.

    TUESDAY will become stormy across the south with southwest winds veering to west-northwest during the course of the day, 90 to 130 km/hr and risk of even higher gusts in exposed coastal areas of west Munster. Squally showers and thunderstorms with total rainfalls 10-20 mm in the south. Further north, as storm Barra approaches the Galway Bay area, most of Connacht and parts of the midlands will see winds abating for several hours as the slack central portion of the system moves in. Before that happens rather windy and wet with south winds backing in some places to southeast then east at about 40-70 km/hr, rainfalls 20-35 mm, and some sleet or snow on hills. Temperatures will be steady in the 7-9 C range for most places, although closer to 5 C over northern counties, as storm Barra is not going to bring in particularly mild Atlantic air, but will quickly be encircled by rather cold air that will become progressively colder as the low moves further east. In summary, considerable potential for disruption and damaging winds, coastal flooding likely. The effects are expected to be worst in west Munster but that could extend into parts of Galway and the inland southeast at times.

    By Tuesday night a somewhat weakened storm Barra will be centered near Belfast with the remnants of its strong westerly winds reaching the east coast but only gusting to about 80-100 km/hr by then. Similar northwest winds will be buffeting most of Connacht and west Ulster, reaching the midlands by about midnight. It will turn cold enough for hill snow to begin in some areas, 2-5 cm could accumulate in higher parts of Connacht and Ulster. So for those in Dublin and many parts of the midlands and Ulster, this should be a less impactful storm than further south or west, although it may even so be able to do some minor damage in places. Be on high alert and avoid travel in Munster, south Connacht and possibly the inland southeast and coastal south Leinster also.

    WEDNESDAY will remain overccast, windy and cold with sleet or wet snow on hills, cold rains near sea level, with 5-10 mm additional accumulation expected. Lows 2-5 C and highs 7-8 C.

    THURSDAY will be overcast with occasional rain and highs near 7 C.

    The weather is expected to remain rather cold through next weekend and could become a few degrees milder next week.

    My local weather on Sunday was sunny and very cold with highs near -5 C. It is clouding over now with snow moving into coastal regions and arriving here by afternoon, 5-15 cm expected from this system. Much milder in the central and eastern states but with this cold air mass pushing in rapidly behind another strong low developing in northern Ontario heading for Quebec. A gusty cold front will race east and hit the east coast cities by this evening with possible severe wind gusts there also.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 7 December, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland

    ALERTS continued for very strong winds in most regions, southwest to west 110-140 km/hr across Munster and some parts of south Leinster, southeast 90-130 km/hr southeast in most other regions, then later this afternoon through the overnight hours into parts of Wednesday morning, very strong northwest winds 80-120 km/hr (locally 100-140 km/hr in Clare, Kerry). Some further heavy rainfall for east and north, squally showers likely at times in west Munster spreading in behind the departing steady rainfalls. Some higher elevations will see 3-6 cm snow accumulations, slushy mixtures at lower elevations of Connacht and west Ulster, some parts of inland Leinster.

    FORECAST UPDATE

    Storm Barra has tracked as expected towards the Aran Islands with the centre at 0830h estimated to be about 100 miles west of Loop Head in southwest county Clare. It is estimated that the centre will make a landfall near Galway around 1300h today after tracking across the Aran Islands, and then will move east-north-east towards southeast Ulster by this evening and into the north Irish Sea overnight. Very strong southwest winds will intensify within the next 2-4 hours across most of Munster, reaching speeds of 110-150 km/hr in exposed locations, with considerable damage potential. High seas and battering waves will produce storm surge conditions in some south and west facing bays and inlets. Squally showers and thunderstorms are possible. These conditions will only begin to moderate slowly by this evening with a gradual shift in wind direction to west-northwest. County Clare may then see an increase in their wind speeds to the 110-150 km/hr range since being closer to the centre this morning they may have somewhat lower wind speeds then. Highs today 7-10 C ... For most of Connacht, the currently strong southeast winds and rain with hill snow will give way to an interval of less windy weather around the time of landfall (1200-1400h) as the slack gradients near the centre of storm Barra move through, then winds will likely increase rapidly from the northwest to reach 90-130 km/hr, from the coast inland over the afternoon hours. Highs 4-7 C. Some slushy accumulations of snow are likely by late afternoon. ... For Leinster, the midlands and most of Ulster, the current strong southeast winds and rain will continue for several more hours with some increase in wind speed to 80-120 km/hr, then some partial clearing will develop as winds veer to southwest at similar speeds, or with a drop to 50-80 km/hr closer to the centre of the storm. Temperatures will be steady 4-7 C. About 10-20 mm further rain is likely.

    TONIGHT most areas will be under a strong northwesterly flow with bands of mixed wintry showers, some slushy accumulations of snow likely, and winds northwest 80-120 km/hr with some stronger gusts possible. Lows 1 to 3 C.

    WEDNESDAY the strong northwest winds will only begin to moderate slowly by afternoon from southwest to northeast, and the extent of mixed wintry showers will also be reduced by later in the day, but some accumulations of snow in the 3-6 cm range are possible especially over somewhat higher parts of the north, west and higher parts of the southeast. High temperatures 2 to 5 C. Feeling closer to -3 C in the strong winds.

    THURSDAY will bring a secondary disturbance with rain, sleet and wet snow at different elevations, moderate west to northwest winds, lows near 2 C and highs near 6 C. Winds in the 50-80 km/hr range

    The pattern remains unsettled for several more days with a slightly milder trend by next week.

    My local weather on Monday was overcast with light snow and very cold with highs barely above -10 C. Strong winds developed on the east coast of the U.S. and snow squalls in the lower Great Lakes in association with another strong low moving through eastern North America.

    Will probably issue an updated forecast around 1200h to fine tune the details. I would strongly recommend sheltering in place in many parts of the country for the rest of today and possibly overnight into early Wednesday, avoid all travel if possible.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday 7 Dec 1630h __ Forecast Update

    The centre of storm Barra has tracked into the midlands as expected and is currently over Westmeath (957 mbs). A large area of the midlands and inland Connacht remain in a zone of slack gradients and light winds. The west coast of Connacht, and county Clare, have recently been swept by stronger northwest to north winds with gusts to 110 km/hr in Connacht and 130 km/hr in Clare. Most of west Munster otherwise has seen bands of very strong winds with somewhat more moderate intervals between them, and all of those zones are shifting gradually with the further motion of the storm to the east-northeast. Most of Leinster has been in a more moderate wind zone apart from some very strong coastal gusts this morning but now the inland southeast is beginning to feel some of the stronger westerly gusts which are the tail end of even stronger bands further west. This is somewhat similar to storm Darwin in 2014 but probably not to the same intensity so tree damage in south central counties should be isolated rather than widespread.

    The forecast element of this message is simply to say that the very strong northwest flow setting in behind Barra will slowly increase its coverage this evening and by about 8 p.m. it will probably have overspread most of Connacht and the northwest parts of Leinster. Bands of sleety mixed precipitation will form, with slushy accumulations likely in many areas, settling snow above about 200 metres asl. Temperatures will be around 2-4 C and winds north-northwest 80-120 km/hr in exposed areas, and 50-80 km/hr more generally. These conditions may be particularly severe around north coastal Mayo and Sligo, and parts of Donegal by later this evening. A modified version of these conditions will eventually reach coastal Leinster with wind direction more west-northwest, temperatures 2-4 C, mixed precipitation mostly by elevation around the Wicklow Hills, and wind speeds 50-80 km/hr with some higher gusts. The areas that have had strong westerly winds most of the day will see a gradual moderation with some variations hour to hour, but a general downward trend in wind speeds to reach the 50-80 km/hr range later tonight. Temperatures will be around 3-4 C in low elevations and 1-2 C on higher ground where some snow may accumulate, otherwise mixed wintry showers are likely.

    The unpleasantly cold and unsettled conditions will persist well into Wednesday with further slushy accumulations of snow, before there is much improvement and that will be short-lived ahead of another disturbance expected to arrive on Thursday, with a brief moderation of temperatures late in the day, to be followed by quite a cold day with some snow showers in the mix for Friday.

    Stay safe, and remember that after dark driving will be more hazardous in some areas even if the weather seems to be moderating, because of unseen hazards that may be on the roads, and the lag time between rain in hilly areas and runoff. There could also be another round of coastal flooding later in areas that saw this earlier today as well as new areas being exposed to onshore winds for the first time in the storm such as north Connacht and parts of Ulster where winds might have been from a land direction in some cases.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 8 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 Dec 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average near normal or slightly above as a warming trend sets in by this weekend; until Friday it will remain colder than average then after that it should warm to around 3-5 deg above normal for about a week.

    -- Rainfalls will be near average in general.

    -- Sunshine will be 75 to 100 per cent of normal in this cloudiest part of the year where normal is barely two hours a day.

    -- These current strong winds will subside to more moderate levels and the trend over the coming week to two weeks seems to be a gradual reduction in wind speeds to a temporary return to the mid-November pattern with slack winds under high pressure at times. That will take at least this coming week and probably longer though.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will continue very windy in parts of Ulster, Connacht and north Leinster, with northwest winds of 80 to 120 km/hr gradually moderating to the 60 to 90 km/hr range. There will also be bands of cold sleety rain with some slushy accumulations of wet snow possible especially over higher parts of the region. Highs 3 to 6 C and feeling closer to -1 C in the strong winds. For the south and west, it will also remain quite windy, northwest 50-80 km/hr for most areas, with a few passing showers but longer bright intervals too. Highs 5 to 8 C.

    TONIGHT will become partly cloudy to clear and less windy for a time, with local frosts, lows -2 to +2 C.

    THURSDAY will quickly turn rather windy again, although not a strong storm, with an interval of rain and temperatures briefly pushing up to 7 to 10 C, then falling back steadily by afternoon and evening as winds turn northwesterly increasing to about 50-80 km/hr, with temperatures by evening 2-4 C.

    FRIDAY will be windy and cold with passing wintry showers, some accumulations of snow possible on hills, winds northwest 50-80 km/hr and morning lows around -1 C, afternoon highs 3-6 C.

    SATURDAY will become milder in stages with sleety light rain in the morning in some eastern counties, a faster warming trend for the west, and eventually a rise in temperatures to near 10 C in all areas, with fog and drizzle.

    SUNDAY will continue rather mild with further outbreaks of light rain (about 5-10 mm potential) and moderate south to southwest breezes in the 40 to 60 km/hr range. Lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

    By MONDAY and TUESDAY the rain could become showery and somewhat colder air will try to push in at times perhaps dropping temperatures in parts of the north while having less effect on mild readings in the south.

    Beyond that, high pressure may start swelling up over Britain and the North Sea region, with a mild southeast flow into Ireland, somewhat colder at times at night though, but this interval will be running up against a predicted energy peak around the 19th to 23rd where it could quickly turn rather stormy again, although at this distance the models are not picking up much of that signal yet. I think it will show up in forecasts within a few days, unless the energy splits and allows the high to control the weather longer, in which case I would not be surprised if it became colder in stages around Christmas.

    My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with somewhat less bitter temperatures around -5 C, and no new snow. We have a rather thin covering but it is well established with the recent chilly temperatures.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 9 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 Dec 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal. The trend will be steadily upwards to Monday then slightly down towards normal.

    -- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

    -- Sunshine will average near normal values.

    -- Not as windy as recently, more frequently moderate and turning more southerly after Friday.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, mild for a while around late morning and mid-day, then turning slightly colder as winds veer from southwest to northwest 40-70 km/hr. Highs 8 to 10 C. Temperatures falling off slowly this afternoon especially over western counties.

    TONIGHT will become partly cloudy, windy and cold with passing mixed wintry showers, winds west-northwest 40-70 km/hr. Lows 1 to 3 C.

    FRIDAY will start out quite cold and windy with passing wintry showers, temperatures slow to recover at first, then somewhat milder by afternoon, temperatures continuing to rise in many areas into the evening hours when it may be closer to 8 C.

    SATURDAY will bring occasional light rain and mist, rather mild with lows near 5 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

    SUNDAY will be overcast with occasional light rain, mild and becoming windy by afternoon, southerly 40-70 km/hr. Lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.

    MONDAY will see the light rain becoming more drizzly, then gradual clearing, highs near 8 C.

    Most of next week will be relatively mild but as high pressure builds up later in the week, nights could turn rather chilly with fog and some frosts. Highs most days around 7 to 10 C. There are signals for a much colder interval starting right around Christmas so that will be interesting to watch.

    My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with a few brighter intervals during the afternoon, highs near -4 C.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 10 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 Dec 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg above normal despite today starting off rather cold.

    -- Rainfalls will average 25 per cent of normal values.

    -- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal.

    -- Wind speeds will be generally moderate at first, briefly strong later Sunday, then rather light for most of next week.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy and cold with passing mixed wintry showers. Winds northwest 40-70 km/hr and highs 5 to 7 C.

    TONIGHT temperatures will remain steady with a tendency to rise slowly after midnight, with occasional light rain. Lows 5 to 7 C.

    SATURDAY will be breezy and milder with a few intervals of light rain or drizzle across parts of the north, trending to partly cloudy further south. Highs 10 to 13 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and mild. It will turn very windy at times by late afternoon and evening, especially in parts of Connacht and west Ulster, where south to southwest winds of 70 to 110 km/hr are expected. Elsewhere this breezy interval will be more moderate, 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 5 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

    MONDAY will be partly cloudy with some early morning outbreaks of light rain, as winds gradually ease to southwest 30-50 km/hr. Somewhat colder with temperatures steady near 8 C.

    TUESDAY will see a return to milder weather and occasional light rain, highs near 11 C.

    After that weak frontal passage in some parts of the north and west, higher pressure will take over the weather for several days. It should stay rather mild although nights could be closer to freezing than during the breezy mild spell. Highs will remain around 10 C. Eventually the high will drift somewhat further west allowing colder air to seep in from the northeast. This could be quite gradual over the days leading up to Christmas, then it could start to turn quite cold as northerly winds develop. Details will remain sketchy for a while yet, and so far there are no indications of severe cold but it may not be all that far away by the holiday week.

    My local weather on Thursday was overcast with light snow but little accumulation, highs reaching about -3 C.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 11 December, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

    TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 Dec 2021 --

    -- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal values.

    -- Rainfall will range from 25-50 per cent of normal values in the north and west, to 10-25 per cent in the south and east.

    -- Sunshine values will be near average or slightly above.

    -- Rather windy at times late Sunday, otherwise most of this week will feature rather light winds for this time of year.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy and mild, with some persistent light rain in parts of the north (5-8 mm), more isolated showers further south, with brighter intervals developing. Highs 10 to 13 C.

    TONIGHT will be misty with fog patches forming, lows 5 to 7 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with light winds at first, then a stronger southerly flow will develop. A rather small and fast-moving disturbance will race by Connacht and west Ulster late in the day, leading to a brief increase in wind speeds there to the 70-110 km/hr range. This will not affect most other counties or regions as much with only an increase to 40-60 km/hr likely. Highs 10 to 13 C.

    SUNDAY NIGHT the strong winds should ease after midnight, with some light rain moving through parts of the north and west, lows near 6 C.

    MONDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few intervals of light rain possible in the south and east, lows near 6 and highs near 9 C.

    TUESDAY will be milder again with some rain at times in the west and north. There could be dense fog in the morning. Lows 3-6 C and highs 9-12 C.

    From WEDNESDAY to the end of next week, the weather will be increasingly controlled by high pressure building up over Britain and parts of western Europe. This will lead to several days with light winds and the potential for dense fog to form, which could affect daytime temperatures, as nights will be rather cool in this settled interval. However, many places will manage to get enough air movement to allow mild temperatures to return for the daytime hours, so for most, the range will be about 1-4 C overnight lows to 7-10 C daytime highs. But in a few places it could be a bit colder than that if fog or low cloud persists. This high will eventually weaken and allow a more northeasterly flow to develop, but details are rather sketchy about whether or not this will lead to any large change in the temperature pattern, or perhaps just maintain it around normal values. There is some potential for it to turn considerably colder around the Christmas to New Year interval but this is not settled yet.

    My local weather on Friday continued overcast and rather cold with a bit of light snow at times, no real accumulation, and temperatures near -5 C. Severe storms erupted over the central U.S. with a spring-like disturbance forming and dragging in some very warm and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico, which will be over the eastern states for part of the weekend, and will return after this system's cold front moves through and a second storm takes a similar path next week. Eventually temperatures could reach 20-24 C in parts of the eastern U.S. in a few days, but colder air will replace that eventually. The pattern is likely to remain rather cold over western Canada which is generally good for the recovery efforts after the severe flooding, although the cold, snow and ice formation are making some parts of that more challenging. It is probably better than having a lot more rain however.



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