Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Tuesday, 17 August, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, near normal temperatures, rather dry despite occasional drizzly light rainfalls, and rather cloudy, with winds staying rather light.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks mostly in the south, and also a few outbreaks of light drizzly rain, mainly over western and northern counties. Amounts will be slight (1-2 mm at most). Highs 18 to 21 C.

TONIGHT will remain mostly cloudy with a few more drizzly showers in places, lows 11 to 14 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with some light rain late in the day in parts of west Munster, highs near 19 C.

THURSDAY will be overcast with outbreaks of light rain in the south, lows near 14 C and highs near 19 C.

FRIDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers or intervals of light rain (3-7 mm expected), lows near 15 C and highs near 20 C.

SATURDAY will remain partly to mostly cloudy with showers, highs near 19 C.

The pattern from SUNDAY to late the following week will not change dramatically but could feature somewhat more sunshine and longer dry intervals, while bringing in the occasional band of showers this time from a southeasterly direction, as a weak upper level disturbance competes with a rather disorganized broad ridge of higher pressure for control of the weather over the region. If you're looking for exciting weather it would appear you might have to wait a while or look elsewhere.

My local weather turned cooler in stages on Monday and some light rain has arrived with temperatures now down to 18 C, and we're hoping for some heavier bursts to develop in a stalled frontal band but these are not evident on radar yet. However there's still about 12-18 hours of this set-up to go before another dry spell begins.

Little change on the tropical storm front with Fred moving inland and about to die out, Grace south of Hispaniola and gaining some intensity over the open water, and Henri now plodding west but not forecast to do very much after a few days of meandering around east of the American coastline.

Thursday, 19 August, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 Aug 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near or slightly above normal values.

-- Rainfall will average about 25 to 50 per cent of normal, with the exception of some eastern counties that may see briefly heavy rainfalls on Saturday adding enough to bring their totals to near normal.

-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, with a slightly improving trend as the first few days will be quite cloudy.

-- Winds will continue rather light most of the time.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks in the north and midlands at times. There will be some outbreaks of light rain in the inland south by mid-day and afternoon. Only about 1-3 mm totals likely. Highs near 20 C.

TONIGHT will be cloudy, mild and humid with occasional light rain heavier at times further west, lows near 14 C.

FRIDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with outbreaks of showery rain (3-7 mm likely), lows near 14 C and highs near 19 C.

SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter spells developing in the west and north, but scattered light showers across the south and east will gradually become locally rather heavy with risk of thunderstorms, especially in the inland southeast counties. Lows near 14 C and highs around 19 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with only a few isolated showers, lows near 13 C and highs near 21 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny with lows near 12 C and highs near 22 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will likely be a bit warmer still with sunny intervals and highs near 24 C.

This warmer spell may continue for some time with partial interruptions across the south from offshore weak disturbances, in a generally settled easterly flow.

My local weather featured some bright sunshine, highs near 22 C, and smoke-free skies for a change, thanks to east winds and a general reduction in the smoke levels from regional fires after cooler weather and rain recently. This has continued into tonight with clear skies and midnight temperatures of about 10 C.

Meanwhile, Grace has reached hurricane status as the storm approaches the eastern Yucatan peninsula. It is expected to weaken somewhat crossing that land mass but then redevelop into a hurricane before a second landfall not far from Veracruz in east-central Mexico. Remnants of this storm in the form of heavy rainfalls could impact Mexico City. Meanwhile, Henri is slowly approaching hurricane intensity well off to the east of the U.S. coast; models then diverge on outcomes, with some showing a strong hurricane impact on southern New England and Long Island in about three or four days; other guidance keeps Henri further out to sea and no threat to land. So without a lot of lead time forecasters are having to alert many millions of people that they could be in harm's way but it's not a sure thing yet.

Saturday, 21 August, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 August 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will average about half of normal, in some parts of the east and midlands, to one quarter elsewhere, and all of that is expected today, so the trend after today is basically dry.

-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal values. Some places could reach 50 per cent above normal.

-- Very light winds will become more easterly by mid-week after a spell of rather variable breezes at first.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy except for some brighter spells in the afternoon in some parts of the southwest. More outbreaks of rain are expected and some may become heavy with thunder and hail over some parts of Leinster and the midlands. Local amounts of 20-30 mm possible, but in general more like 5-15 mm. Highs near 19 C.

TONIGHT will see partial clearing, fog and mist patches, and lows near 11 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals, and this may become more like sunny with cloudy intervals later in the day, with highs 19-22 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be sunny and quite warm with light breezes, some local sea breeze cooling on south and east coasts mainly, lows about 8-11 C and highs 21-24 C.

WEDNESDAY to about SATURDAY 28th will continue dry, warm and at least partly sunny each day, with light to moderate easterly breezes developing which will tend to cool Leinster to around 19-22 C but warm up the inland west and even parts of the west coast to near 25 C.

The northerly spell we were discussing yesterday still shows up by about Monday 30th so that Sunday next (29th) could be a transitional day, still a bit warmer than average, but with gusty northeast to northerly breezes developing. The cooler turn is not expected to last very long as the high will return to near Ireland later in the week around Wed 1st September, bringing another few days of warm and perhaps sunny weather then.

My local weather saw increasing cloud and highs around 27 C. Hurricane Grace has intensified in the Gulf of Mexico to almost cat-4 intensity as it bears down on eastern Mexico where a landfall is expected Saturday morning. It is far enough north of Veracruz that impacts there should be moderate, but it will miss Tuxpan just to the south which might lead to storm surge problems there. Meanwhile Henri could slowly edge into cat-1 hurricane intensity after maintaining roughly 60 knot winds most of the last few days, but it has made the turn north where warmer waters lurk, so even cat-2 is not ruled out for it, whether it can sustain that to landfall near Rhode Island remains to be seen. This landfall would be around Sunday afternoon local time. The range of possible landfall locations is probably New York City to Boston, although with higher probability from central Long Island to southeast MA. Stronger hurricanes have hit this region in the past so if it remains in the cat-1 or high end TS range the impacts while serious may be relatively moderate. About 200 mm of rain may fall inland in central CT and western MA on the most likely track for Henri.

Monday, 23 August, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS -- This will be a generally warm (2-4 deg above normal) and dry week with at least average amounts of sunshine, probably greater than average except in some cloudier coastal areas of the west and north. Winds will be very light.

FORECASTS --

TODAY will be sunny and warm in most areas, and where cloud is prevalent at first, that may begin to burn off by mid-morning to leave hazy and partly cloudy to sunny skies. Highs 22 to 25 C, with a few coastal areas perhaps closer to 20 C. There is always a slight chance of localized shower activity near sea breeze boundaries inland.

TONIGHT will have clear intervals, followed by some low cloud, mist or fog in a few places, notably near west and north coasts. Lows 8 to 12 C.

From TUESDAY into next WEEKEND (28th-29th) this pattern will see little change for most of Ireland. There will be slight variations between easterly and northerly breezes that could change the details for parts of the north mainly, as northerly breezes would tend to extend the marine influence near the north coast into parts of Ulster. These variations are going to be rather small and subtle. The general theme is a warm and dry week with at least reasonably good sunshine, if not quite up to the standards of the July warm spell with its many cloudless days. Highs through the week are likely to be similar each day at various locations, the highest readings will probably be in the midlands and inland west or even right out to the west coast at times, with 27 C probably about the peak we might expect (but can't rule out one or two higher readings). Large parts of the east and south will have a slight marine influence and may top out around 23 or 24 C. The seas are not all that cold at this late stage of summer so that sea breeze cooling is less of an issue than it would be in a similar spell in May or June. Nights will be rather warm except towards sunrise when overnight lows of 8 to 12 C will be recorded, so there will be some relief from daytime warmth available but it may be somewhat slow to materialize during some of the nights especially in urban areas that take longer to cool down. The shower factor remains quite low in general and some days will not record any at all.

So that's the picture through to about Monday 30th when the warm spell may slowly begin to disappear as a slight northerly flow establishes and perhaps becomes stronger by mid-week (Wed 1st of September), dropping temperatures down considerably into the 15-18 C range. The current guidance suggests the warmer air may return after a few days of this cooler weather, although perhaps with more cloud limiting highs to the low 20s in that instance.

My local weather was cloudy and somewhat foggy most of the day, with an interval of heavy rain in the evening and highs only around 15 C. After all the severe heat we suffered through, this should feel wonderful but I am starting to feel that it's now too cold for a summer month. Meanwhile, Henri made its landfall near the Rhode Island - Connecticut border around noon local time on Sunday; winds were around 110 km/hr in a few spots and there was some tree damage and localized flooding, but most seem to think the region got off rather lightly from this event, in fact the worst weather was probably over around Brooklyn, NY into northern NJ from associated bands of heavy rain (local reports of 250 mm of rain over the two days).

Wednesday, 25 August, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain same as discussed yesterday, very warm, sunny and dry for at least a week, with light winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see any morning fog or low cloud giving way to hazy sunshine in most places, and most of the day will be sunny and quite warm with highs 22 to 26 C. There could be some cooler temperatures in a few coastal areas especially in the north.

TONIGHT will be back to clear skies with a risk of fog or mist by early morning, lows 9 to 13 C.

THURSDAY will be sunny and very warm, highs 24 to 27 C.

FRIDAY is likely to turn slightly cooler in some eastern and northern counties but it won't be a big change, 21 to 24 C for those areas, and staying near 25 C further south and west.

The WEEKEND will continue much the same with highs 20 to 24 C for most, at least partly sunny in most areas. Nights will remain comfortable in the 8 to 12 C range.

This fine spell of weather seems destined to last into the first day of September (Wed) after which there will likely be a gradual return to more active weather systems including some cloud, rain and wind at times. The current guidance suggests that the warm spell will break down completely by Friday 3rd of September but there could be traces of it returning from time to time although not quite as well defined as this current spell, so the first half of September might turn out close to average but slightly on the warm and dry side of normal.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with a few clouds and highs reached 19 or 20 C. This is the most pleasant weather we have had in ages here which is not that great a feat since we've had record heat, dense smoke, and a week of chilly wet weather. The bar was low anyway.

Friday, 27 August, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 27 Aug to 2 Sep 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal, higher values in the western counties and midlands.

-- Most places will remain dry, a few locations could see 1-2 mm total rainfalls.

-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal values.

-- Light to moderate east winds will prevail.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny, hazy and very warm in central and western counties. There may be more persistent low cloud or mist this morning in some parts of the east and north, and possibly also near the south coast. Most of this should yield to intervals of hazy sunshine later. Highs 23 to 26 C in the central and western counties, 19 to 22 C in the east and north. There is a slight chance of isolated showers briefly forming over inland southwest counties.

TONIGHT will be clear at first with haze, then fog and mist may become fairly widespread at least in the east and north. Lows 10 to 14 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will continue similar to today, perhaps about a degree cooler in most areas, and in the north there may be more persistent cloud at times with isolated outbreaks of drizzle or light rain. Lows 9 to 13 C for Sunday morning, and highs both days 22 to 25 C in central and western counties, 18 to 22 C east and north.

MONDAY to THURSDAY will continue this fine spell of weather although there could be a very gradual decline in temperature back towards more normal values, but even so, highs 21 to 24 C are possible in some parts of the west, south and midlands. Highs 17 to 20 C will be more typical for Leinster and Ulster, at least closer to the coasts. Overnight lows may get a bit chillier through the week and could be reaching into the 5 to 8 C range well inland by mid-week.

The dry spell looks set to break down to a more mobile westerly flow around Friday 3rd or the following weekend. Temperatures would likely be close to normal values, highs 18 to 21 C.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy by afternoon and some virga has appeared on radar but so far no measurable rain here, some further west and north seems likely to reach us soon, and we expect a bit of rain at times through Friday.

The Caribbean tropical storm (now T.S. Ida) formed first and is still predicted to intensify to hurricane status in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend with a landfall most likely in Louisiana on Sunday. The mid-Atlantic low is still being watched but now there's a third one east of the Windward Islands that may beat it to named storm status. That one could move into the western Atlantic later next week.

Sunday, 29 August, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 29 Aug to 4 Sep 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal to 1 deg above normal in parts of the inland west, midlands.

-- Rainfall will average very close to zero throughout. Some rain could resume around Sunday 5th however.

-- Sunshine will do well to reach average amounts with a bit more cloud in the mix this week.

-- Winds continue very light east to northeast for most places.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy compared to recent days, but some brighter intervals will develop rather hit or miss as cloud breaks up during the mid-day and afternoon hours. Where any good amount of sunshine develops, highs will reach about 22-23 C. Otherwise highs likely to be held to the 18-21 C range. Some rather persistent low cloud and light sea fog in some coastal areas.

TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy with a few clear intervals, fog patches thickening in some areas after midnight. Lows 7 to 12 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will likely be similar with rather cloudy skies but some patchy sunshine developing each day, probably more likely in parts of the west and north-central counties. Highs continuing in a similar range, near 22 C with sunshine, 17-20 C otherwise.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY may see more sunshine again but nights will likely turn rather cool, lows 3 to 8 C, highs 17 to 21 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY of next weekend will see mostly cloudy skies, holding fairly dry though, lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.

By SUNDAY 5th current indications are that a more active autumn weather pattern will become established and some remnants of tropical storms may be in that mix eventually. Highs will be in the 17 to 19 C range.

My local weather on Saturday was very pleasant, we have finally lost all traces of smoke from our local skies, and there was a mixture of clear skies and cumulus clouds with a high near 21 C.

Hurricane Ida continues a steady intensification approaching Louisiana and there could be some severe impacts near and west of New Orleans later today. Landfall is likely to be around 3 p.m. local time (9 p.m. Irish time). The other two tropical systems being watched have both received their numbers, tropical disturbance ten is to the east of the Windward Islands headed north, and tropical disturbance eleven is east of Bermuda heading northeast. Both of them are expected to become short-lived weak tropical storms.

Tuesday, 31 August, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain the same -- near normal temperatures and dry until mid-weekend, then some scattered rainfalls amounting to about half the normal weekly amounts. Not a lot of sunshine is expected, and winds will pick up gradually.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered outbreaks of drizzle near coasts, some sunny intervals developing inland mostly, and highs generally 17 to 21 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with lows around 6 to 10 C, some fog patches likely by morning.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will continue dry and rather cloudy with a bit of sunshine in the mix each day, and highs 17 to 21 C. Overnight lows could fall off slightly to around 4 to 9 C.

The WEEKEND will see a gradual increase in wind speeds from the southwest, and as cloud streams in from the Atlantic, some showers at times, with the risk of a brief interval of heavier rain, but details are still somewhat out of focus, this could amount to a rather minor event. Temperatures will stay around 17 to 20 C daytime, 8 to 11 C for overnight lows.

The following week looks rather variable and temperatures will remain near seasonal normals. A few more months of this and we won't have a weather forum at all.

My local weather on Monday was sunny with increasing high cloud, and pleasantly warm with highs around 24 C. Some scattered showers are expected with a weak front moving through later Tuesday.

Ida has been downgraded to a tropical depression but is still dropping a lot of rain in parts of the southeastern U.S.; meanwhile TD10 finally got itself a name (Kate) and that isn't expected to last very long either in the south-central Atlantic. A more promising tropical system has emerged from Africa and seems likely to get named within a day or so.

Thursday, 2 September, 2021 ____ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, temperatures near to 1.0 above normal, rather dry but with some potential for 50% of normal rainfall in some areas (most of that on the weekend), and sunshine returning to about 75 per cent of normal, with winds continuing rather light most of the time.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with some sunny intervals, and isolated drizzly showers not leaving much accumulation where they happen. Highs will be near 17 C east, to 21 C west.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with some fog patches, lows 6 to 10 C.

FRIDAY will bring increasing cloud and isolated showers, highs 17 to 21 C.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and scattered showers, some heavy in parts of the south and west by late in the day, lows around 10 C and highs around 19 C.

SUNDAY will see further showers generally heading out to the northeast, then some sunny breaks and a bit warmer with winds more southerly allowing highs to reach 19 to 23 C.

MONDAY and most of next week looking quite good now, with another high settling in, this one may not be quite as prone to easterly winds or low cloud but there is bound to be some leftover fog or mist in the mornings at this time of year, with highs generally in the low 20s. A more active pattern is likely by mid-month.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy with a high near 17 C.

The remnants of Ida did quite a number on the northeastern U.S. with reports of 250 mm rainfalls in New Jersey and tornado outbreaks near Philadelphia and Annapolis, MD. That system is heading for Atlantic Canada and eventually up towards Iceland and will be held off by next week's high pressure over Ireland. TD12 became Larry which looks capable of becoming a major hurricane but well out to sea as it makes a leisurely grand tour of the Atlantic. The current guidance says its remnants will be coming back towards Portugal and northwest Africa in about two weeks while a more ordinary low might be approaching Ireland but at that time range, Larry could be almost anywhere in the Atlantic basin ten days from now, so worth keeping an eye on its progress.

Saturday, 4 September, 2021 __ __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 Sept 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, higher in the west and north. Most of this will occur around mid-week.

-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal (which is now around 4 hours a day).

-- Wind speeds will remain quite light most days.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals in the southeast mainly, and possibly east Ulster. Some light rain will develop over the Atlantic coastal districts. Other areas are likely to stay dry. Highs 17 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will remain mostly cloudy with a few light showers staying mainly close to the Atlantic coast, lows near 13 C.

SUNDAY will see a few showers moving from west Munster and Connacht towards the midlands and Ulster. Parts of the southeast are likely to remain dry. Skies will be cloudy with sunny breaks, and it will feel rather warm and humid, lows near 13 C and highs 19 to 21 C.

MONDAY will become partly cloudy in the south with a few more outbreaks of light rain moving east through Ulster. Lows near 14 C and highs 19 to 22 C.

TUESDAY will feature some hazy sunshine in places and warm temperatures, lows near 14 C and highs near 24 C inland, 17 to 20 C closer to some coasts though.

WEDNESDAY will be similar in the east and north, but some cloud and scattered showers could move into the south and west. Lows near 14 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

THURSDAY will become gradually more unsettled with stronger westerly breezes at times, showers and highs near 20 C.

The further outlook is for somewhat more unsettled weather although not without the occasional dry day in the mix.

My local weather on Friday was sunny with a buildup of high cloud by evening, and highs near 24 C.

Hurricane Larry has already reached cat-3 intensity and is on its way well to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico towards Bermuda but exact details on its track near that island remain to be settled, and the current best guess is that it will now narrowly avoid a landfall in southeast Newfoundland and head into the central Atlantic. Some remnants of Larry could conceivably become part of the weather picture in Ireland by about the 14th-15th or so. There's nothing to be concerned about at this point though.

Monday, 6 September, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 Sep --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal.

-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, most of this on Thursday.

-- Sunshine will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal.

-- Wind speeds will remain rather light.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring a few more isolated showers in Ulster and north Connacht, otherwise, a fairly nice day with some breaks in the overcast appearing in many areas and possibly some longer hazy sunny intervals later, highs 20 to 23 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and very mild with lows 13 to 16 C.

TUESDAY will bring hazy sunshine except for more cloud near some coasts, in particular north and northwest, with highs 23 to 26 C for most, about 18 to 20 C in cloudier areas.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 14 C and highs near 23 C.

THURSDAY will become more overcast with heavier showers or thunderstorms possible, rainfalls generally 10-20 mm but possibly higher in parts of the midlands to south Ulster, lows near 13 C and highs near 19 C.

FRIDAY will see some clearing as high pressure rebuilds from the northwest, while rather cool it should be bright and pleasant, highs near 18 C.

The WEEKEND will continue partly cloudy to sunny with near normal temperatures, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 17 to 19 C. High pressure will build up to the north cresting over Scotland by about Monday. This will bring a somewhat cloudier southeasterly flow by Monday 13th and Tuesday 14th. Around that time, remnants of Hurricane Larry, still on the same general forecast track as described yesterday, will be trying to push into the region but guidance shows the high holding off Larry and forcing the remnants to split apart with most of the energy heading southeast towards Portugal and some shearing off towards the Faeroes. However there would be a slow increase in moisture in the southeast flow affecting Ireland through the week. It should be noted that other outcomes are possible though so it's something forecasters will be watching with interest.

My local weather on Sunday was mostly cloudy with highs near 22 C.

Wednesday, 8 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 September 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal with a gradual decreasing trend to near normal from current 3-5 above.

-- Rainfalls will generally average about half of normal values but a few parts of north Connacht and Ulster could see 125 to 200 per cent of normal on a local scale, see forecasts (most of this rain is coming later today into Thursday).

-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal values.

-- Winds will remain generally rather slack.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be quite warm and muggy with some sunshine at times despite increasing amounts of high to mid-level cloud. Some showers and thunderstorms may develop in western counties and possibly in a few parts of the midlands. Highs 22 to 24 C but feeling perhaps a bit warmer due to the humidity.

TONIGHT could see an outbreak of very heavy thundery showers over north Connacht spreading northeast towards south Ulster. Some guidance is giving indications of 50-75 mm rainfalls by morning with further amounts on Thursday. Elsewhere there could be some outbreaks of moderate thundery showers also but it will be quite hit or miss in other parts of the country. Very mild with lows 15 to 18 C.

THURSDSAY will continue cloudy, warm and humid although temperatures in heavy rainfall zones in the north will probably be capped at about 17 or 18 C. Elsewhere some breaks in the overcast and occasional thundery showers possible, highs near 21 C.

FRIDAY this disturbance will be pushing further northeast and remnant showers may not be nearly as heavy or widespread, but cloud will be slow to clear in the north. Lows near 11 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

The WEEKEND is looking fairly settled but there could be isolated showers in parts of Connacht. Lows both days around 8 C and highs around 16 C.

NEXT WEEK is likely to be fairly dry at first, with a few outbreaks of drizzle or light rain later, in mostly east to southeast winds. Temperatures could come up slightly for the first part of the week then drop back to mid-teens later.

Hurricane Larry remains on the earlier discussed track and will be very near Bermuda by tonight and Thursday morning, then over the Avalon peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday, heading for eastern Greenland. The Azores low won't get any support from Larry and will tend to spread east rather than northeast, drifting into Portugal by about this time next week.

My local weather was quite warm under mostly sunny skies, highs reaching about 28 C.

There should be a discussion starting up on the forum concerning this heavy rainfall potential, the GFS model shows 75 mm of rain over the grid point close to where Mayo, Sligo and Roscommon share a boundary, and then an axis of 30-50 mm rainfalls extending across Sligo into south Ulster. Much of this rain is supposed to fall after 9 p.m. and before noon Thursday. The thing to keep in mind is that the model may be quite accurate about the amount but off a bit on the location and that particular location is relatively low impact for the population aspects, but if the maximum happened to be a bit further south, east, or even west, it would have a larger impact on where more people live. So that's the main concern that I would have, seeing the potential for locally heavy rainfall that might actually set up closer to towns in Connacht.

Friday, 10 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 September --

-- Temperatures will average about 1.0 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will average near normal in some parts, and up to 50 per cent above normal in the south, midlands, and parts of the east, with a few showers most days but heavier rain expected Sunday into Monday morning now.

-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

-- Winds will continue rather slack, picking up gradually next week to moderate or even strong at times.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, humid with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy with isolated showers, lows 9 to 12 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY contnues under threat of a moderate to heavy rainfalls (20-40 mm) moving into the south and southeast, probably also the midlands, as the distant low pressure northeast of the Azores is expected to spin off a satellite disturbance heading for Ireland. It still might turn out fairly decent in some parts of Connacht and Ulster further away from this new low, at least for most of Sunday. Rain could reach Leinster and east Ulster by about late morning. Temperatures will be steady 12 to 16 C. Some moderate northeast winds could develop on the north to west side of this "inverted trough" feature when it intensifies, with gusts to 60 km/hr possible on Sunday afternoon or evening (north Leinster to the midlands and southwest counties are probably most in line for this, but the situation continues to evolve).

MONDAY will see this moderate to heavy rain pushing gradually to the northeast followed by partial clearing with a few leftover showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY may provide a few sunny intervals with just patchy cloud and isolated showers, highs near 18 C, as the last of this recent blocking episode fade away. Although Larry will die out near Greenland, a secondary low is set to develop closer to the main jet stream and that will promote a stronger southwest to west flow, as more frontal waves follow in its wake. The rest of next week will likely be increasingly unsettled and windy at times with near normal mid-September temperatures.

My local weather on Thursday was hazy and very warm (near 27 C) with some ambient smoke from fires down in Washington state, but by evening it had clouded over, and rain is due in late Friday and most of Saturday. Hot weather continues to spread east from the desert southwest into the central states but a trough on the east coast associated with Larry has somewhat cooler air flowing into it. Larry is set to cross southeast Newfoundland tonight (local time) and wind gusts to 140 km/hr are predicted with a 2-3 meter storm surge into south facing bays (but this is a region used to a large tidal range so there isn't too much built up very close to any tidal maxima. Another impact of Larry is that it will set up dangerous swells and rip currents on beaches along the eastern seaboard of the U.S.

Sunday, 12 September, 2021 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 September --

-- Temperatures will remain near normal to 1.5 deg above normal (inland, north, east).

-- Rainfalls will range from 75% of normal in the south to 25% of normal in the north.

-- Sunshine will be about half to 75% of normal.

-- Winds will pick up in speed later in the week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with sunny intervals further north, while outbreaks of rain make little progress beyond the south coast counties where about 5 to 15 mm could fall. Highs about 18 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with lows 7 to 10 C, still a few intervals of light rain or drizzle near the south coast.

MONDAY will start out generally dry then sporadic showers will develop in various areas, not as prevalent in Ulster however. Highs 16 to 18 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY are looking fairly settled with a mixture of cloud and hazy sunshine, lows 6 to 10 C and highs 17 to 20 C.

By THURSDAY there will be increasing cloud and a stronger southwest wind developing, lows near 10 C and highs near 19 C. Rain by evening.

FRIDAY the rain should move through most regions followed by clearing skies, lows near 13 C and highs near 20 C.

The outlook for the weekend of 18th-19th at this point is fairly promising, some sunshine with highs near 20 C, then a return to cloud and rain during the following week. The temperature trend looks static and will average 2 to 3 deg above normal later simply because a flat temperature trend will become relatively warmer than average at this time of year.

My local weather turned out okay after a damp start, skies tried to clear for a while but it has remained mostly cloudy and more rain is moving in late tonight. Highs were near 18 C. Two bear sightings in two different locations made it an interesting day (one large black bear in town and a cub wandering around near the golf course). This is a lot more bear activity than we had around here the previous two years.

Tuesday, 14 September, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 Sept 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal, mainly because nights will continue very mild, daytime readings not too far from mid-September averages.

-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal as the disturbances begin to acquire more moisture in coming days.

-- Sunshine will be held down to around 50 per cent of normal values.

-- Wind speeds will gradually increase back into a more typical autumnal range.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and scattered showers, one or two of which could become thundery and locally heavy, although many places will only see 2-5 mm of rain. Highs 18 or 19 C.

TONIGHT will be misty or foggy with patchy drizzle, lows near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY will have a few morning showers and some partial clearing later, rather warm at 19-20 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy in the eastern and central two-thirds, and overcast in the west where rain and strong south to southwest winds are likely to arrive during the late afternoon and evening. Lows 12-14 C and highs 18-21 C.

FRIDAY will see frequent and sometimes heavy showers with total rainfalls from late Thursday to early Saturday about 30-40 mm in some central counties, 20-30 mm more widespread. Lows near 11 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY there will still be one or two showers around but a gradual clearing trend for a time, followed by another surge of widespread rainfalls overnight into Sunday morning. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY will have the morning showers left over from the overnight frontal passage, then variable cloud and a few more showers likely, lows around 10 C and highs around 16 C.

Most of next week will be unsettled and sometimes rather windy, but there could be a very warm interval later in the week as southwest winds possibly in association with a tropical remnant further north (around Iceland) create a surge of subtropical air towards Ireland, so there could be one or two days into the low or even mid 20s before a more variable regime in west to northwest winds that may sometimes be quite strong towards the end of the month.

My local weather was quite nice with mostly sunny skies on Monday, and a high near 22 C. Nicholas is making landfall just west of Galveston TX and will drench the Houston region with 300-500 mm rainfalls during the next day or two. It became a minimal hurricane just before reaching the shoreline near Matagorda Bay.