Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Chisler2

as always………..my thanks for your superb analysis and forecasts.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 3 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Just scattered light showers today and Wednesday, then heavier rain more widespread Thursday-Friday, back to the showery pattern by the weekend, winds almost constantly east to southeast and moderate, temperatures near or a little above normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY some persistent rain near Dublin will edge further west all morning but it won't cover a large area of Leinster and many other places could have a fairly dry if damp day, with the odd brighter spell in mostly cloudy skies. Winds east-southeast 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 6 to 10 C.

TONIGHT a few scattered outbreaks of drizzle or light rain, lows 4 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY cloudy with showers, highs 7 to 10 C.

THURSDAY rain heavier at times, spreading from south into most other regions, 20-30 mm in south, 10-20 mm further north. Highs 8 to 11 C.

FRIDAY further outbreaks of rain becoming more showery, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK partly to mostly cloudy Saturday with isolated showers, highs 6 to 9 C, rain at times Sunday lasting through most of Monday, winds turning more southwesterly as blocking begins to break down, milder as a result, highs could peak around 11-12 C. Cooler in stages after that as a weak low stalls out near Ireland and allows colder air to seep in eventually, leading to a drop in temperature by mid-month to around 7-9 C.

My local weather on Monday continued cloudy and foggy with some wet snow melting on contact with the slushy surface, high again near 3 C. Despite being eight time zones apart it seems that we have equally depressing weather this winter, the excitement lies elsewhere. The eastern regions of North America have come out of the deep freeze for a while but a fresh shot of arctic air is due in for the weekend.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 4 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Showery with some longer outbreaks of rain at times, temperatures a little above normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with scattered showers, highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT outbreaks of rain from south into central counties, lows 4 to 7 C.

THURSDAY frequent showers, 5 to 15 mm of rain likely, highs 7 to 10 C.

FRIDAY rain heavy at times, gradually clearing late in the day, lows 4 to 7 C, highs 7 to 10 C.

SATURDAY variable cloud, showers more isolated, lows 2 to 5 C, highs 6 to 9 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy, showers heavier over eastern counties, lows 1 to 4 C, highs 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY further heavy rain possible, highs near 9 C.

Later next week there may be a trend to clearing skies and colder temperatures briefly, before a return to unsettled weather by the weekend of 14th-15th.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with a very low cloud ceiling, just up the hill from us it became very foggy, and highs were around 4 C. A very mild spell is developing for all of western Canada and the adjacent western U.S., in lower elevations it could reach 15 C, but here I am expecting 7 to 9 C and possibly more dense fog, the skies could clear in some places for some spring-like sunshine though. A much colder spell will develop further east.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 4 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Showery with some longer outbreaks of rain at times, temperatures a little above normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with scattered showers, highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT outbreaks of rain from south into central counties, lows 4 to 7 C.

THURSDAY frequent showers, 5 to 15 mm of rain likely, highs 7 to 10 C.

FRIDAY rain heavy at times, gradually clearing late in the day, lows 4 to 7 C, highs 7 to 10 C.

SATURDAY variable cloud, showers more isolated, lows 2 to 5 C, highs 6 to 9 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy, showers heavier over eastern counties, lows 1 to 4 C, highs 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY further heavy rain possible, highs near 9 C.

Later next week there may be a trend to clearing skies and colder temperatures briefly, before a return to unsettled weather by the weekend of 14th-15th.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with a very low cloud ceiling, just up the hill from us it became very foggy, and highs were around 4 C. A very mild spell is developing for all of western Canada and the adjacent western U.S., in lower elevations it could reach 15 C, but here I am expecting 7 to 9 C and possibly more dense fog, the skies could clear in some places for some spring-like sunshine though. A much colder spell will develop further east.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 5 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Heavier rain returns for today and parts of tomorrow. There will be less widespread showery rain on the weekend and some brighter intervals. Heavy rain returns yet again for Monday-Tuesday. After that, the trend is less certain, some suggestions of a gradual colder turn by later next week or the following weekend.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring outbreaks of heavy rain to the southeast, Wicklow and Waterford are under orange level alerts (expect 20-40 mm and local flooding risks) while most of the east and south have a less severe yellow warning level (10-20 mm). Highs 7 to 10 C with moderate east to southeast winds.

TONIGHT rain ending, drizzle or light showers, lows 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY another bout of heavier rain may be confined more to north Leinster and east Ulster with other regions having a more showery outbreak. Highs 7 to 10 C.

WEEKEND should enjoy some breaks from this frequent rainfall and just isolated showers with partly cloudy skies, until overcast builds up over the south late Sunday. Highs both days 6 to 9 C, nights 2 to 5 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY back to intervals of heavy rain, and rather strong east winds at times, temperatures 6 to 8 C.

The outlook is less certain but one suggestion would be very gradually cooling temperatures and occasional showers, winds turning more frequently to northeast then north and eventually northwest, bringing down wintry showers from up around Iceland. Highs could be only 3 to 5 C if this verifies with frosts returning at night.

It looks as though any colder spell would last three or four days then transition slowly to mild and dry, before any return to this current unsettled theme.

My local weather turned very mild as did the entire western third of the continent, with record values along the Oregon coast (near 22 C) and less remarkable 12-15 C widespread inland. It was near 10 C under broken cloud here which was allowing what little snow is left to melt away steadily, we will soon be down to a few plow remnants, but there is still about 20 cms higher up. A very cold weekend is in store for the eastern and central regions of the U.S. and Canada. Our mild spell will last through the weekend and transition to near average but still pleasant conditions after a bit of rain Monday.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 6 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … After another rather wet day today, the weekend will see slight improvements, then it's back to rain for several days next week, followed by colder weather and the risk of wintry showers and snow towards end of next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain moving west, heavier in some northern counties where 15-25 mm could fall. Highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT variable cloud, isolated showers, lows 2 to 5 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, isolated showers, highs 6 to 9 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy, isolated showers, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY icreasing cloud from south followed by rain, moderate east winds, lows 1 to 4 C, highs 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY rain heavy at times, lows 4 to 7 C, highs 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY continued unsettled, showers and highs 6 to 8 C.

FRIDAY 13th into WEEKEND 14th-15th gradually turning colder, winds northerly 30-50 km/hr, wintry showers or outbreaks of snow on northern hills. Highs 3 to 6 C and lows -2 to +2 C.

My local weather was foggy most of the day, the mild spell continued in many other locations but the fog kept temperatures closer to 5 C here. Very cold air is rushing south in Manitoba and towards Minnesota and will soon engulf the Great Lakes region and by tonight most of the eastern U.S. and Ontario. A strong storm will develop out to sea and head towards Europe arriving after the weekend (see Monday forecast above). This offshore storm may begin close enough to the coast to drop 5 to 10 cm of snow in parts of southern New England.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 7 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Some breaks in the persistent rain this weekend, then another wet interval next week, turning colder towards end of week. Quite variable after that with a second cold spell possible after a brief return to mild temperatures.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with mist and fog in places, and a few brighter intervals possible further west. Some rain will break out over the Irish Sea and head for east Ulster, it may brush locations on the coast north of Dublin at times. Otherwise, many places should have no more than trace amounts or 1 mm today. Highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT variable cloud, fog and mist patches, lows 2 to 5 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy at times, a few isolated brief showers can't be ruled out, and rain could spread into parts of the south by evening. Highs 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY rain could turn heavy at times, as it moves slowly north in several waves; a few brighter intervals could come and go between these wet periods too. Rainfalls of 15 to 25 mm widespread. This may return the risk of some local flooding. After a Monday morning low of 2 to 5 C, highs later Monday will reach 9 to 12 C and it will stay quite mild overnight into Tuesday with another high near or above 10 C then also.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY still rather unsettled but more showery with winds starting to turn more westerly for a time, more persistent rain in parts of Ulster where low pressure will stall out. Lows both days 3 to 5 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

FRIDAY and weekend of 14th-15th will turn quite cold with chance of wintry showers and snow on some hills, but also dry spells and some wintry sunshine at times. Highs 4 to 7 C (possibly lower on high ground) with slight frosts returning.

After that it may turn quite mild again for a day or two before a stronger push of cold air arriving towards the end of the month (2018 comes to mind).

My local weather stayed quite mild and we lost the fog after a while this morning, but it returned after sunset and is now quite thick. The high with a bit of sun getting through higher cloud was 8 C. The remarkable warmth of past days was somewhat reduced as coastal areas began to see an onshore breeze, and the chinook weakened too, but those zones were still close to 15 C. Very cold air has reached the east coast setting off brief heavy snow squalls along a cold front while a strong low forms off the coast. I was reminded that 46 years ago on Feb 6-7 1978 a severe blizzard struck New England and eastern New York state, totally paralyzing the road network for days. This was the third major storm of the winter but the previous one had brought blizzard conditions further west. I was living in Toronto during that event and we were just on the outer edge of the snowfall there, picking up perhaps 2 or 3 cm, but it was very cold.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 8 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … A few showers today and longer outbreaks of rain in coming days, mild. Turning colder towards the end of the week, some wintry showers possible. Frosts will return by Friday.

FORECASTS

TODAY variable cloud, a few showers across the south and east with longer dry intervals further north. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT a few clear intervals in the north, lows 2 to 5 C. Cloudy with occasional rain across the south, lows 5 to 8 C.

MONDAY rain will spread gradually further north with a few brighter intervals possible too, highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY occasional rain, mild, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY variable cloud, showers, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

THURSDAY turning colder at least in some parts of the north, outbreaks of rain spreading southeast, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY will be colder with scattered wintry showers and some sunny spells, frosts. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 4 to 6 C.

It will likely begin to turn milder again through Sunday 15th and Monday 16th, with another colder interval eventually.

My local weather turned a bit colder, and snow began during the afternoon, with a coating of 2-3 cm now on the ground; temperatures were near -1 C. Eastern regions were very cold and windy, with locally heavy snow in eastern New England, sunny with severe wind chills further west. That cold spell will continue to Monday before a moderating trend; the very mild air over parts of the west has sagged a little further south and has also begun to spread into the central plains states.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 9 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Frequent outbreaks of rain, mild to Wednesday, then turning cooler in stages, could lead to one or two wintry showers by Friday. Milder air will return by Sunday with more rain likely.

FORECASTS

TODAY outbreaks of rain moving north, some brighter intervals between showers, mild with highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT occasional light rain, some breaks in the cloud, lows 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY another surge of wet weather from the south, some heavy rain at times. Highs 9 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY variable cloud, moderate southwest winds, showers. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

THURSDAY intervals of rain, turning a bit colder, lows 3 to 6 C, highs 6 to 8 C.

FRIDAY breezy to windy, colder, some passing wintry showers more widespread in north. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 4 to 7 C.

SATURDAY cloudy with sunny intervals, cold. Lows -3 to +2 C, highs 5 to 8 C. Rain by evening or overnight.

SUNDAY milder with rain returning, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

It will turn a bit colder after that, details are probably too uncertain to dwell on at this point.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with highs near 2 C. Further south they had excellent weather for the Super Bowl in California and it was very warm all over the southwestern to central U.S. while remaining cold but clear in the east.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 10 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Unsettled for a few more days, temperatures very mild at first, turning colder in stages towards end of the week. Brighter when it turns colder, a few wintry showers possible Friday. Back to milder, wet weather by Sunday and Monday, but then quite variable with some signs of colder weather near end of February.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain developing across the south, drifting further north by afternoon. Mild with highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT mostly cloudy, showers or drizzle, lows 5 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY variable cloud, showers, highs 7 to 11 C.

THURSDAY rain or drizzle, turning colder, partial clearing later in northern counties as winds turn northeast to north there. Lows 4 to 7 C, highs 6 to 8 C with temperatures 2 to 5 C by evening.

FRIDAY partly cloudy to sunny, colder, isolated wintry showers more widespread in northwest especially near higher terrain. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 4 to 7 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, morning frosts, some sleet or rain arriving late afternoon or evening in western counties, lows -3 to +2 C, highs 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY milder with rain at times, foggy, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

MONDAY variable cloud, showers, lows 4 to 6 C, highs 7 to 9 C.

A rather variable regime is likely beyond that point, and model skill with timing details of such intervals is low, so the only point worth making is probably that temperatures will be up and down frequently during the latter portions of the month.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with cloud layers just above us making it foggy on hills nearby, a few snowflakes and highs near 2 C. It looks like a rather quiet weather pattern for us in coming days.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 11 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Turning colder after one more mild, showery day today. But the cold spell will only last two days before milder air returns with more occasional rain. Rather variable conditions will follow as air masses clash frequently.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers, longer intervals of rain developing across the north where it will gradually turn a bit colder too. Highs 4 to 8 C in Ulster, 8 to 12 C further south.

TONIGHT outbreaks of rain sinking further south as cooler air begins to edge south as well, lows 2 to 5 C north, 4 to 7 C south.

THURSDAY a chilly rain at first, becoming more showery later, with a few brighter intervals, as winds turn northeast then northerly. Highs 5 to 8 C for most, 3 to 6 C north.

FRIDAY a few wintry showers, snow on some northern hills, followed by afternoon sunny breaks, cold. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 4 to 7 C, except 2 to 5 C in parts of the north.

SATURDAY frosty to begin the day, some sun obscured by mid-day by higher cloud, chilly. Lows -4 to +2 C, highs during the afternoon 3 to 6 C. Staying around that temperature into the evening with sleet inland, rain spreading in from west coast overnight. Temperatures will slowly rise overnight too, reaching 10 C.

SUNDAY rain and mild, highs near 12 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy, showers, highs near 10 C.

Temperatures will likely fall off a bit for a day or two then become quite variable as strong lows track through Ireland. No severe storms are currently depicted on guidance but it wouldn't take much increase in intensity to be dealing with alert level windstorms in the pattern expected.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast and a bit milder with highs near 3 C. A little snow fell in parts of the Great Lakes and New England from a weak system tracking towards the Atlantic, and it turned a little milder further south.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 12 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Turning colder in stages but the cold spell will be short-lived, with a return to milder air by Sunday. Here again, another change back to colder weather seems possible although details are a bit uncertain, as colder air returns to at least some if not all regions around mid-week. From there it becomes quite variable through the rest of February.

FORECASTS

TODAY some chilly wet conditions in the north will gradually edge further south into some central counties, as it stays relatively mild in the south with a few showers. Highs 3 to 6 C north, 6 to 9 C central, 9 to 11 C south. Winds will become northeast to north 30-50 km/hr in the colder air mass.

TONIGHT a few wintry showers possible across many regions, as rain turns to sleet in parts of the south. Some clear intervals also, with moderate northerly winds. Lows -4 to +2 C.

FRIDAY breezy and cold with intervals of wintry sunshine and a few passing wintry showers in the mix. Highs 3 to 7 C.

SATURDAY after a sharp frost with lows -4 to +1 C, sunshine will fade behind higher cloud layers by mid-day, staying cold except in western counties by evening where milder air and rain will push in. Otherwise highs 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY overnight rain could be preceded by brief sleet or wet snow in the north. Turning milder with variable cloud and showers later. Highs 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY variable cloud, showers, breezy, a bit colder, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY it appears possible that a frontal boundary will become established across central counties with sleet or snow possible to the north, rain and strong southeast winds to the south. Temperatures could vary from 2 to 5 C north, to around 8 to 10 C near the south coast. This forecast could change in details before we get to that point still almost a week away now.

A variable regime will follow with some strong lows in the mix, but also some dry days. There could be quite a variety of temperatures again later in the month too.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with a seasonable high near +2 C.

Just a historical note to end today, it was on this date in 2014 that storm Darwin brought destructive wind gusts to parts of the south.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 13 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Colder weather will be taking over for a couple of days but mild air and rain return Saturday night. After that, we have a situation where guidance is divided on the storm track; some colder solutions suggest a few brief wintry episodes but generally cold conditions, while other guidance points to a dividing line between mild and cold air masses through north-central counties, placing heavier wintry falls over the north mainly. In the forecasts I will discuss how these two scenarios would play out, but it's going to be "wait and see" which scenario is more accurate.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become quite cold with some chilly rain turning to sleet or wet snow on higher terrain. There will be partial clearing behind this front but a few more wintry showers could also follow along with brighter intervals. Winds will be northeast to northerly 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 4 to 7 C, temperatures where snow falls could be held down even further to around 2 C.

TONIGHT will be clear with a few clouds, and very cold with a sharp frost, icy on some rural stretches of highways. Lows -4 to +1 C.

SATURDAY sunshine will fade behind high cloud by mid-day as frost gradually clears. Overcast with sleet or snow turning to rain, by late afternoon into the evening hours. Windy overnight with temperatures rising further from daytime highs of 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY rain will be followed by showers and strong westerly winds, temperatures peaking during the morning to mid-day interval at 10-12 C. Colder by late afternoon and evening. Winds becoming west-southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

MONDAY windy and cold with passing showers, winds northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 5 to 7 C.

TUESDAY is where we have the split in forecast guidance. A low pressure area will approach either the southwest or northwest counties. The further north it arrives, the more mild air could replace the cold, dry air mass in place overnight, so lows are likely to be below freezing in any case. Then it will be determined by the storm track whether milder air (8-10 C) can over-run any parts of the south or central counties. If it does not, some snow may fall there. If mild air does push in, the snow and sleet will be more likely to occur in north Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster.

This two-option situation will also apply further into the forecast period as another disturbance could follow a similar track. I suspect the models will come up with a better consensus by tomorrow anyway, so well before the event we should know with more certainty where the snow risk is greater.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy after a few sunny intervals early on, and it was rather cold at around 2 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 14 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … The very cold air mass that has recently arrived will be trying to spend more time over parts of Ireland but milder air will keep attacking and pushing it back north, with some uncertainty about the exact balance to be established in the coming week. It appears possible that there will be some snow coming and going on several occasions in parts of Connacht and Ulster, and possibly as far south as the midlands, but details will be rather low-confidence from anything but a short time range. After one final push of colder air late in the week, very mild air will have a go for a few days in the last week of February.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out bright and frosty with the frost slow to clear in shaded areas further north. Cloud will thicken rapidly after mid-day and sleet or snow could begin by late afternoon into the evening across parts of the north. The wintry falls may last part or even all of the night in places, while rain will be dominant further south, arriving towards early evening. Highs 3 to 6 C during the daylight hours, temperatures rising overnight in the south.

TONIGHT windy with rain across the south, sleet or snow may turn to rain on lower ground further north, with snow continuing on hills there. Lows 1 to 7 C as temperatures rise faster in the south.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with the morning rain followed by scattered blustery showers, some with hail and thunder. Temperatures will peak near 12 C late morning then start falling back as winds veer to westerly and increase to 50-80 km/hr. Temperatures will fall to around 5 C by late afternoon. Some parts of the north may only peak at around 5-8 C.

MONDAY windy and rather cold with passing showers, some wintry on hills. Lows 1 to 4 C, highs 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY there is still some uncertainty but a closer consensus now exists for rain in parts of the south and snow or sleet across the north. This precipitation could begin to edge south so that some places will see a changeover from rain to sleet. Temperatures steady near 7 or 8 C in the south, 2 or 3 C in the north.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY still some uncertainty remains with further disturbances setting up near this frontal boundary so there could be more snow further north and more rain across the south at times. When the last of these lows has moved past, strong northwest to north winds will bring in one final surge of quite cold air dropping temperatures towards Friday in all regions. So for this interval, we'll go with an estimate of temperatures around 5 to 10 C in most areas, possibly colder further north, dropping towards 1 to 4 C for a time late in the week.

After that, a gradual transition to milder weather will develop by about next weekend and there are indications of one or two quite mild days around 13 to 16 C coming along for the first part of the following week, with strong winds possible towards the end of that interval when temperatures drop back towards more normal values.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy and rather cold with highs near -1 C, and some snow has fallen since mid-afternoon, around 1-2 cm on the ground and continuing as a light snowfall now.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 15 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Windy and showery for several days, turning quite cold again. Some snow is expected late Tuesday and through Wednesday in some northern counties. Thursday will be wintry for a while too, before a warming sets in. Very mild temperatures will replace the cold regime by the weekend of 21st-22nd, into the early part of the following week. The end of that mild spell could become very windy.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be blustery with some potential for severe thunderstorms this morning across central counties. The track of this activity will likely be from Galway Bay where it has broken out already, towards Longford and Westmeath, probably tracking north of Dublin by around 0900h. Strong wind gusts to 100 km/hr and hail are possible with locally intense thunderstorms. Temperatures will peak this morning near 10 to 12 C and will start to drop off during the afternoon, with further squally showers. Winds generally westerly 50 to 80 km/hr with higher gusts. Some other clusters of severe storms could develop this afternoon also.

TONIGHT into MONDAY, continued windy and quite cold with passing showers, some with hail and thunder. Winds west-northwest 50 to 80 km/hr. The winds may ease for a time as a weak low forms in this flow, bringing an interval of steady rain to parts of the southwest. Lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

TUESDAY will be frosty to start and then with increasing cloud, some drizzle and sleet may break out, especially closer to Atlantic coasts. Southeast winds will be strong (50 to 80 km/hr) and raw feeling as lows near -3 C are followed by highs of only 2 to 5 C. It could be milder near the south coast.

By TUESDAY NIGHT into WEDNESDAY, snow or sleet could break out across Connacht, west Ulster, and parts of north Leinster, possibly at times further south also. Rain will be more likely near sea level in southern counties. This wintry mix will continue for most of the day, with some potential for 5-10 cm accumulations in parts of the inland north, central counties. Still quite windy at times from the southeast, temperatures steady 1 to 4 C in the wintry mix areas, and 4 to 7 C further south.

THURSDAY will continue rather cold and unsettled but with more showery precipitation and somewhat less windy, and some of the showers could continue to be wintry. Lows near 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

FRIDAY will start to turn a bit milder, as winds become strong westerly, but the main trend to milder readings will set in over the weekend, lasting to around Tuesday 24th. Highs could be into the range of 12 to 15 C with mild overnight lows due to the ongoing moderate southwest winds during the mild spell. The cold front ending this mild spell could produce strong westerly wind gusts. The mild weather should be relatively dry but some rain could come and go near northern coasts in particular.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with a few breaks, and the high was near 3 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 16 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Cold for a few days with some further showers and risk of snow in a few areas by Wednesday, then warming up gradually to the weekend when it may be very mild, lasting well into the following week. Longer term there could be further cold spells to come in March however.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy, windy and cold with frequent showery rain, some hail mixing in. This will tend to die off as winds (northwest 50-80 km/hr) ease during the afternoon, except in the southwest where a steady light rain could continue to early evening. Highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT clear intervals, very cold, frosts in most places. Lows -3 to +2 C.

TUESDAY some morning sun as frost dissipates, cloudy by afternoon with strong southeast winds developing. Drizzle or light rain across parts of Munster and south Leinster could turn to sleet on hills. Highs 3 to 6 C. Winds becoming southeast 40-70 km/hr. Snow may develop in higher central regions by late evening and overnight.

WEDNESDAY some uncertainty on details with guidance spread to some extent, much depends on how far north the sleety cold rain spreads because the further north it gets, the more likely it would be to turn to wet snow at elevations where people live. If it stays confined to Munster then it will probably just be on higher terrain there. But it could spread into parts of Connacht and the midlands, and higher ground in the southeast also. Locally heavy snow is possible above 400 m elevation. Highs 3 to 6 C, and winds southeast 40-70 km/hr.

THURSDAY still a few showers as chilly temperatures slowly moderate, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C. Not as windy as previous days.

FRIDAY breezy (southwest 40 to 70 km/hr) and milder with outbreaks of rain. Highs near 12 C.

WEEKEND into following week could be very mild at times, with some rain mostly further north, highs could reach 13 to 15 or even 16 C. There may be some quite spring-like conditions in the south and east at times. Before the end of the month this mild spell will likely end with strong westerly winds and a gradual fall in temperatures that could extend on into early March ending up back in the below average range again.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and rather cold with highs around +1 C. Our recent slight snowfall is just hanging on in shady spots but the longer term outlook looks colder than most of this past winter with more frequent chances for snow to accumulate. This will be good news because there's a major winter games scheduled to be held around our ski areas at the end of the month. New York City was getting some light wet snow overnight but just adding small amounts to what is turning out to be a near average total for them. This seems to be a general theme for eastern and central locations, away from the Carolinas where heavy snow fell on 31st Jan into 1st Feb. Most places have had a rather cold winter with average snowfalls, quite a bit better than some recent total "fail" winters (if you're a winter enthusiast).

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 17 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Cold with rain at times, mixing with wintry precipitation in some higher parts of the north and east. Turning milder in stages and becoming very mild at times Saturday to about Tuesday, then more variable.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cold and dry for most, except in the southwest where some occasional light rain or drizzle will fall. Increasing cloud and winds picking up by mid-day to southeast 40-70 km/hr. Highs 3 to 6 C.

TONIGHT rain will turn to sleet inland with snow on some hills, and this wintry mix will advance slowly north to cover most regions by morning. It could stay dry longer in north Leinster and east Ulster. Lows -2 to +3 C.

WEDNESDAY a cold rain will turn to sleet or wet snow on higher ground in the northwest and also around Wicklow. A few other very elevated locations could also see snow but most inhabited parts of the country will just get the cold rain sometimes mixing with wet snow in a few places. Highs 4 to 7 C south and west, 2 to 5 C north and east.

THURSDAY milder with showers, lows 1 to 4 C, highs 6 to 9 C.

FRIDAY breezy and mild with occasional rain. Lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

SATURDAY very mild, drizzle or light rain at times mostly in western and later northern counties. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy, perhaps a bit cooler but pleasant, with highs 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY very mild again with highs 13 to 15 C. Strong southwest winds developing.

The duration of the very mild spell seems to be fluctuating from one model run to the next, some recent guidance shortens it to just a few days and allows more seasonable temperatures back in by mid-week. I am not all that convinced the mild spell will be that short so we'll hold off on anything too definite about timing.

My local weather on Monday brought perhaps the heaviest snow of the winter, which was a rather low bar to exceed, at least 10-15 cm locally with a bit more on the way. Temperatures were steady near -1 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 18 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Turning milder with occasional rain to weekend, very mild for a few days then slowly falling temperatures later next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with occasional light rain, turning to sleet on some northern higher ground. Becoming milder near south and west coasts, highs near 10 C. Elsewhere, highs 5 to 7 C.

TONIGHT overcast with some fog and mist, drizzle, lows 2 to 5 C (5 to 8 C near southwest coast).

THURSDAY mostly cloudy, showers, highs 8 to 11 C.

FRIDAY windy and mild with rain at times, winds west-southwest 50-80 km/hr, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, a few showers mostly in morning hours, very mild. Lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY variable cloud, some outbreaks of light rain and sunny intervals later, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

MONDAY into early TUESDAY very mild, strong southerly winds developing, outbreaks of rain heavy at times when cold front arrives Tuesday. Winds 60 to 90 km/hr in exposed coastal locations. Lows near 8 C and highs 13 to 15 C.

Later in the week, it will be breezy and temperatures will be closer to 10 C at first. It may continue to cool down slowly as the source for the air masses becomes more northwest; eventually it may be a modified form of arctic air that has spent several days over the North Atlantic, so highs could be closer to 6 C and some frosts could return by early March.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with a bit more snow, temperatures near -1 C. This is the most wintry looking landscape we've had all winter but it is still a lot less snow than at peak times of recent winters. The east coast of the U.S. may see a snowstorm late this coming weekend into early Monday, but it could be a glancing blow according to some guidance. In any case, they will have some milder temperatures late this week before that storm develops over the Carolinas Sunday.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 19 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … A very mild spell will set in lasting to around Tuesday. Some rain will come and go during this very mild period. From later Tuesday through the rest of next week, temperatures will be back down to average and there will be occasional rain with this more westerly flow as well.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, and some showers will advance through the country this morning, leading to some longer intervals of rain. Not as windy except possibly near northern coasts. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy with some fog patches forming, lows 1 to 5 C.

FRIDAY becoming quite windy with outbreaks of rain, heavy at times. Very mild with highs near 12 C.

SATURDAY variable cloud, a few outbreaks of light rain mostly around late morning. Lows near 6 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, longer sunny intervals by afternoon. Lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

MONDAY will be very mild with strong south-southwest winds developing, outbreaks of rain increasing from the southwest by afternoon. Lows near 7 C and highs 13 to 15 C.

TUESDAY rain during the morning, staying very mild to early afternoon then clearing and turning a bit cooler. Morning lows 8 to 10 C and mid-day highs near 13 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY cooler with occasional rain, heaviest around Thursday 26th. Highs 7 to 9 C.

My local weather on Wednesday brought a little additional snow and temperatures were falling slowly all day as we get a little deeper into an extensive arctic air mass, readings were near -7 C mid-day and -10 C at present. Heavy rain is moving into central California with heavy mountain snows expected. This low will cross the southern U.S. Friday and Saturday, seeding a potentially powerful snowstorm near the New Jersey coast by Sunday.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 20 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … very mild for about five days now, with occasional rain and some brighter intervals. Turning slightly cooler mid-week and further rain likely.

FORECASTS

TODAY once the band of moderate rain pushes east this morning, variable cloud and further showers, one or two of them rather heavy. Milder with highs 10 to 12 C. Moderate southwest winds.

TONIGHT partly cloudy to overcast, a few showers, mild. Lows 4 to 8 C.

SATURDAY variable cloud, some outbreaks of rain, more persistent in west and north. Very mild, highs 12 to 14 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy to overcast, blustery southwest winds, showers more frequent in north, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy, very mild, strong southerly winds developing, some outbreaks of rain into south and west, lows near 7 C and highs 13 to 15 C.

TUESDAY another very mild day with patchy light rain, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY turning a bit cooler with passing showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY unsettled, near average temperatures (highs 6 to 9 C).

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with some light snow falling like a mist at times, very cold with highs only around -6 C. There is now some snow down in the lower elevations (2-5 cm) while we have about 15 cm on the ground. Snow is also falling from a low further south across higher parts of Utah and Arizona, western Colorado. This low will seed a rapidly developing east coast snowstorm on Sunday into Monday. At the present time, heaviest snow potential appears to be east of Philadelphia (30-40 cm in places). NYC as well as Washington DC could see 10-20 cm, New England a bit more. Some airport delays are likely around Monday morning.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 21 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … very mild into middle of next week, slowly cooling back to near average by end of week, frequent outbreaks of rain but also some pleasant spring-like brighter intervals.

FORECASTS

TODAY variable cloud, some outbreaks of rain developing later this morning, more persistent in west and north. Very mild, highs 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy, isolated showers, mild, lows 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy to overcast, blustery southwest winds, showers more frequent in north, and highs 8 to 11 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy, very mild, strong southerly winds developing, some outbreaks of rain into south and west, lows near 7 C and highs 13 to 15 C.

TUESDAY another very mild day with patchy light rain, lows near 7 C and highs 12 to 14 C. Best chance for sunny spells in the southeast.

WEDNESDAY variable cloud, some rain at times, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY breezy with outbreaks of rain, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

Turning slightly cooler later in the week and into early March, continued unsettled.

My local weather was cold and dry with extensive high cloud dimming the sun, highs near -5 C. It will gradually become milder here over the weekend. The chances of a significant snowstorm on the east coast appear to be increasing with the more aggressive guidance holding firm while less prolific models seem to be converging towards the higher amounts. The seed low for this storm is in a weakening phase crossing north Texas and Oklahoma today, after which new development takes place tonight over the Carolinas, and a powerful ocean storm explodes into existence Sunday morning near the tip of the Delmarva Peninsula. This is likely to drift north then east covering coastal states with 30 to 60 cm snowfalls during Sunday afternoon and overnight into Monday. Expect travel delays if heading to the eastern U.S. by plane (submarines advised not to surface, snow on the periscope not a good thing).

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 22 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Very mild and generally unsettled for several more days, then turning colder late in the week, perhaps a brief dry spell to follow.

TODAY … Partly cloudy, passing showers, some of them heavy with thunder (mainly northern and some central counties), moderate southwest winds, highs 8 to 12 C. Feeling rather cool in northern counties but the milder theme will continue in the south.

TONIGHT … partly cloudy to overcast, isolated showers, lows 5 to 7 C.

MONDAY … partly cloudy to overcast, outbreaks of rain moving through the country around mid-day,, strong southerly winds at times, very mild, highs 12 to 15 C.

TUESDAY … variable cloud, some rain at times, not as windy, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

WEDNESDAY … partly cloudy, isolated showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY … some rain at times, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY … breezy and a bit colder, passing showers, lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C.

With rather low certainty, the next stage may be a dry spell of a few days as slightly colder air moves in from the southeast as high pressure builds to the east of Britain. Temperatures could drop a few more degrees.

My local weather on Sunday was hazy with some sun at times, a bit milder near -2 C. The major storm is taking shape over the eastern states where blizzard warnings have been posted within 150 kms of the coast between Delaware and Massachusetts. Less impactful snow is expected further inland.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 23 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Very mild with some rain at times but also some pleasant spring-like bright spells, through to around Thursday which will likely be a wetter day, then a bit colder for several days, but with further showers.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few intervals of rain spreading north, typically lasting two or three hours before moving past. Highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT hazy with extensive higher cloud, mild, lows 6 to 10 C.

TUESDAY some sunshine at times in east, rain spreading gradually into west and north. Highs 12 to 14 C.

WEDNESDAY partly cloudy, a few showers, mild. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

THURSDAY intervals of rain, lows near 6 C and highs 10 to 12 C.

FRIDAY variable cloud, showers, cooler. Lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.

SATURDAY increasing cloud, rain by afternoon. Lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY variable cloud, showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

The regime will slowly become less unsettled into early March with some rather chilly nights returning as high pressure begins to form over the region. There are low-confidence suggestions of a colder spell to follow.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with light snow leaving a new covering of about 5 cm, still snowing now. Yesterday's report had Sunday for my local weather but that should have read Saturday. … The near-blizzard snowstorm struck with bands of heavy wind-whipped snow in parts of Delaware, New Jersey, eastern PA, southeast New York and is now moving into southern New England. It was a less impactful wet snow event for Baltimore and Washington DC. Snowfalls of 40-60 cm in total are likely and half of that has already fallen in NYC and points south.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 24 February, 2026 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Very mild for a few more days, some pleasant spells and occasional rain. Turning slightly cooler by Friday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with best chances for sunny spells in the east, as some light rain develops near the west coast and spreads slowly inland. Very mild, highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy east, occasional light rain west, mild. Lows 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY a few outbreaks of light rain, sunny spells in the mix, highs 13 to 15 C.

THURSDAY rain starting early to mid morning, mild. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

FRIDAY a little colder, sunny spells in the north, cloudy with occasional rain south. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

SATURDAY increasing cloud, rain by late afternoon, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

SUNDAY outbreaks of rain, some fog and mist, mild. Lows 7 to 9 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

MONDAY to THURSDAY (2-5 March) another cycle of mild, dry to showers and a cold front, highs 9 to 12 C.

Beyond that it could turn noticeably colder as high pressure builds up further north and sends northeast winds towards Ireland. Not quite a full-on arctic air mass but chilly, highs 6 to 9 C and frosts at night. (confidence only moderate on this time range)

My local weather on Monday was cloudy and rather mild with light rain turning recent light snow to slush, high near 4 C. The northeast U.S. had blizzard conditions for much of the day and some all-time record amounts, most notably nearly 95 cm at Providence (T.F. Green airport) as well as over 70 cm in central Long Island and some parts of northern New Jersey. Metro New York City had readings in the range of 50 to 60 cm.

Rodar08

Peter, we will miss you so much here. Thank you for all your dedication and hard work over the many years you focused on this little micro climate of ours. Your daily post was something so many of us came to rely on. Always dependable always accurate. RIP 🤍❄️

Igotadose

…💔💔💔💔💔

DOCARCH

Mod Note: For now, going to close this thread, and hopefully other members, in due course, can carry on MT's daily forecast legacy. An almost solo thread for 17 years!

A thread with, as far as I am aware, the most views of any single thread in Boards history and the most thanks on any single thread in Boards history!

A thread opened here to discuss M.T. Cranium

Shocked and very saddened at the news!

RIP Roger Smith (aka M.T. Cranium/Peter O'Donnell). Ar dheis Dé go raibh a anam.