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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Comments

  • #842
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,940 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Fils wrote: »
    Are you as qualified as Paul Reid and in similar salary?

    LOL great argument you've got there, we might as well just delete the entire forum thanks to you.

    Also wtf does salary have to do with anything???


  • #843
    Cal4567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 625 ✭✭✭Cal4567


    It's common to come out with that old gripe we are the laughing stock of the world, then almost remembering with my next thought that most of the world don't really know, or even care much about this little island perched of the north west coast of Europe.

    This should go down as the best example of weak governance and with what we've seen with successive governance, both elected and not (the civil service) that's saying something. We reap what we sow though.


  • #844
    normanoffside
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,228 ✭✭✭✭normanoffside


    M_Murphy57 wrote: »
    Apparently an FOI request turned up this gem:

    https://twitter.com/MarmaladeMax/status/1409777042237890564?s=19

    This guy Mark, a private citizen, has had the models for months through FOI and critiqued them. He Has been tagging journos etc.
    Now public mood has turned against the models the Journos are saying the models are secret because they haven’t been doing their work as journalists all along. They haven't been asking questions.


  • #845
    Ballynally
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 214 ✭✭Ballynally


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    I have posted this a couple of weeks ago on the vaccination thread. It is a trend that has been observed since February.

    Underlying material is here (table 4, page 12).

    Between Feb 1 and June 14 60,624 severe outcomes were attributed to the delta variant. Of which 73 lead to death (0.12%).

    Interesting are the vaccination cohorts in that group. 35,521 of those were unvaccinated leading to 34 deaths amongst them. Whereas 4,087 have fully vaccinated status leading to 26 deaths.

    Of course the average age of the fully vaccinated is obviously much higher than the competently unvaccinated. So it appeared that even vaccination didnt drive death rate of the old vaccinated (0.64%) below the death rate of the young unvaccinated (0.1%).

    Before anyone says those percentages still seem quite high it must be repeated this was amongst the recorded severe cases only. So I guess true IFR rates are anything between factor 10 or 20 smaller again. And then there are the undetected on top of it which could be factor 10 again after that.
    I guess thats why England expects to go ahead with the full abandonment of restrictions regardless. Overall threat assessment must be tiny.

    I've actually been wondering is this delta variant the one we've been talking about when it was said that the virus will eventually 'run out of steam' and peter out into relatively harmless strains.

    I am no longer discussion numbers/statistics on this thread but i will give you one insight.
    There still will be a number of people dying from SarsCov2, mainly older people who's immune systems are impaired and some younger people suffering fr the same. As the vaccines train the adaptive immune system those people will be less protected and newer, more transmissible variants might be more problematic. That also happens in influenza epidemics.
    However, the good news is that it seems that the new variants lead to less severe symptoms, cytokine storms, organising pneumonia and other immune system reactions that actually kill the patients as opposed to the virus itself.
    So, the link from infection to hospitalisation to deaths looks very different now.
    Together w vaccinations, a better use of hospital treatments w steroids/Ivermectin and general upcoming developing treatment methods we can handle this virus.
    Strange but i thought TH was on board with that like most 'experts' around the world. Maybe he still is but is totally focused on keeping the numbers down by any means possible. He has said repeatedly that his eye is on the new school season and protecting children. Im thinking he might be willing to sacrifice both the truth and everyone else to achieve his goal.
    But his job is actually advising the cabinet using current data, not tweaking the data to get a certain outcome because of your agenda. TH has been given power and it has gone to his head. I think the top politicians suspect that but have put him in that position and are now loathe to drop him.
    So, in those circumstances another committee will look at the whole thing again. More delay.
    I can see the politicians dilemma. Drop the CMO and admit culpability or keep him and be accused of unaccountability and a looming cabinet crisis.
    This thing is not going to go away..


  • #846
    _Kaiser_
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,252 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    As the Indo tells it, this all seems to be down to Micheal Martin being unable to make a decision himself, and Holohan - himself an arrogant dominating individual as we've seen in the pressers - taking advantage of this weak ineffectual man to push his agenda...
    At a tense Cabinet meeting yesterday morning, ministers lashed out at Nphet’s recommendation, which landed late the previous evening.

    Justice Minister Heather Humphreys said the advice amounted to being placed in a room with two doors – behind one was a blazing fire and behind the other were hungry lions.

    Public Expenditure Minister Michael McGrath said Nphet had “thrown a grenade on to their desks” with its call
    for a vaccine identification system.

    Culture Minister Catherine Martin, Education Minister Norma Foley and Higher Education Minister Simon Harris also raised concerns about how vaccine passes would work and the backlash they could cause.

    Taoiseach Micheál Martin told the Cabinet he asked chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan what his advice would be if the Government could not develop a vaccine pass for pubs and restaurants and said he was told indoor dining would have to be banned for the “foreseeable future”.

    Green Party minister of state Ossian Smyth told RTÉ Raidió na Gaeltachta the Government would be asking an independent body such as the World Health Organisation or the European Centre for Disease Control to review Nphet’s data on the Delta variant.

    “We will be looking at it again independently on the figures outside of Nphet. We will ask them [an independent authority] to look at the figures independently,” he said.

    However, his comments came only hours after the Taoiseach ruled out reviewing
    Nphet’s figures.

    “The idea of setting up alternative, different pools of advices and researches, would lead to incoherence in the short term,” Mr Martin said.

    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/scramble-to-save-summer-ministers-incensed-at-nphet-race-on-to-develop-vaccine-id-amid-shock-advice-40596602.html

    .... It almost reads like an abusive relationship between them to be honest. One of them has to get out.


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  • #847
    FlubberJones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 911 ✭✭✭FlubberJones


    Cal4567 wrote: »
    It's common to come out with that old gripe we are the laughing stock of the world, then almost remembering with my next thought that most of the world don't really know, or even care much about this little island perched of the north west coast of Europe.

    True, it should be laughing stock of Europe... Speaking to all my family back home in the UK, they are baffled at what is going on here.. As am I.

    Just ridiculous... Don't do this, don't do that... do what we say. bull****


  • #848
    agoodpunt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 544 ✭✭✭agoodpunt


    robbiezero wrote: »
    This. Id have normally voted for one of the arse cheeks, but the ineptness, cowardice, lack of vision and arse covering of this Government has changed that for a long time.

    It would also make you wonder about some of the things that one takes almost for granted in an election:

    Health Service cant be fixed no matter who gets elected.

    Housing issues are a legacy of the comstruction bust of last decade and will take a long time to fix.

    Nothing can be done about our massive economic dependence on multinationals and FDI.

    Transport system creaking at the seams.

    Justice system Etcetera.

    You couldnt have any faith in the zoo that is the current Governement parties to bring anything other than rabid conservatism and cowardice to bear on any of the major problems faced by the country or to bring a bit of vision to things like WFH which could be a real boon to some of the issues above.


    Agree with most of what you say but I am not a fan of WFH as an urban deweller it has impacted unevenly on big cities making them wastlands overnight and increasing house price inflation on rural areas.

    Many WFH have fled the country, and so have some of the benefits of FDI

    Banning construction in level 5 is causing major problems now in material and manpower resourses inflating costs in building sector being felt now.


  • #849
    _Kaiser_
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,252 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    Varadkar on NT now and for someone who is normally so comfortable in the media, he's stumbling badly to stand over this one.

    Totally unconvincing - even more than usual.


  • #850
    _Kaiser_
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,252 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    Doctor Jimbob wrote: »
    For the first bit you’ve bolded, the response from Martin should have been “then we need to implement antigen testing like other countries using such a pass are doing”. I’d imagine the actual response was more along the lines of “yes, your majesty”.

    And that's my point. This all seems to boil down to Holohan being able to dominate their conversations and Martin being too weak and cowed to stand his ground.


  • #851
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Varadkar spoofing on Newstalk

    Never heard him say aam as much

    Trying to defend the indefensible


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  • #852
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,940 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    Varadkar on NT now and for someone who is normally so comfortable in the media, he's stumbling badly to stand over this one.

    Totally unconvincing - even more than usual.


    Shane coleman really putting it to him. Really like the point that if the UK dont fall apart in the next 3 weeks then NPHET have no credibility.

    Also someone earlier on there also made the great point that if their projections turn out true this would have happened anyway, indoor dining isnt going to be the singular cause of it so if we close indoor dining and theres no spike they still lose their credibility.


  • #853
    _Kaiser_
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,252 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    Ahhh, ummm... *talk rapidly and nervously*

    All you need to know about Leo's attempt to justify and stand over this as I type


  • #854
    Relax brah
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Relax brah


    It’s disappointing for many but let’s be honest comparing ourselves to other countries is abit ridiculous - our drinking culture is the real issue. It’s a lack of trust from the government and you can’t blame them, anyone who frequents Dublin City centre will know this


  • #855
    paw patrol
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,312 ✭✭✭paw patrol


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    Varadkar on NT now and for someone who is normally so comfortable in the media, he's stumbling badly to stand over this one.

    Totally unconvincing - even more than usual.

    he doesn't believe it himself - he knows NPHET are insane.

    Do they (FF) have more dirt him ? Remember he took Tony H to task and then the trouble with the leaks came. It was well known he agreed to pipe down in return for FF support and hasn't strayed much since from the Michael Martin line.

    if he had any balls he'd put it up to Martin or the FF party - and threaten to take down the government.

    Time to actually act or time for a heave against MM within FF- hopefully the FF back benchers know it's time to save their seats.

    I know I've been banging the anti restriction drum for a year but yesterday was momentous in terms of utter gob****ery and I'm seeing a huge change in attitudes which is good to see.


  • #856
    RGS
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 787 ✭✭✭RGS


    Leo is really so poor for a normally suave media performer. He doesn't believe what he is saying.


  • #857
    Relax brah
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Relax brah


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Varadkar spoofing on Newstalk

    Never heard him say aam as much

    Trying to defend the indefensible

    People are quick to forget that he was the only one who went against NPHET’s advise last year, bet your life he’s struggling to stand over yesterday’s decision


  • #858
    paw patrol
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,312 ✭✭✭paw patrol


    Relax brah wrote: »
    It’s disappointing for many but let’s be honest comparing ourselves to other countries is abit ridiculous - our drinking culture is the real issue. It’s a lack of trust from the government and you can’t blame them, anyone who frequents Dublin City centre will know this

    our drinking culture is very similar to most northern european countries
    its' not unique.


  • #859
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Relax brah wrote: »
    It’s disappointing for many but let’s be honest comparing ourselves to other countries is abit ridiculous - our drinking culture is the real issue. It’s a lack of trust from the government and you can’t blame them, anyone who frequents Dublin City centre will know this

    Yeah cause our drinking culture is so different to the UK which is fully open

    Having lived in Belgium they love their sessions too

    It's a BS excuse


  • #860
    plastic glass
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 322 ✭✭plastic glass


    What I find surprising is that the opposition hasn’t really come out in opposition of this. They are talking more about opposing the vaccine passport to dine in than anything.
    I reckon they will have to allow antigen tests. That will be the compromise
    Crazy that we are opening travel before indoor dining. Absolutely crazy. Things like this are going to push semi normal people to the extreme right. Or left


  • #861
    Shelga
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,050 ✭✭✭Shelga


    Leo just said on RTÉ radio 1: “even in level 5, the most restrictive time, we were not preventing people from serving food in pubs”- yes but in level 5, we weren’t allowed to go more than 5km from home and had to have a written reason for staying in a hotel. Now, anyone can just rock up, yet many restaurants and pubs remains unable to open. Total clown show of a government.


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  • #862
    suicide_circus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,802 ✭✭✭✭suicide_circus


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    Varadkar on NT now and for someone who is normally so comfortable in the media, he's stumbling badly to stand over this one.

    Totally unconvincing - even more than usual.

    He sounded incredibly weak and hesitant, very different to the usual Leo, even with Shane Coleman softballing him throughout.


  • #863
    greensausage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 221 ✭✭greensausage


    RGS wrote: »
    Leo is really so poor for a normally suave media performer. He doesn't believe what he is saying.

    Of course he doesn't, he seems to have at least some common sense around the whole lot as we've seen when he publicly disagreed with nephet in the past.

    Not much he can do now, Tony has made his decision, MM is just going to do whatever he says so unless Leo fancies collapsing the government over it he's going to have to toe the line over it.


  • #864
    JRant
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,137 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    I would like someone to review my interpretation of the data in this post.

    But it appears that NPHET modelling is not taking into account real word findings on delta from England.

    The obvious answer to this is NPHET have completely ignored real world data in favour of their own modelling.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • #865
    agoodpunt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 544 ✭✭✭agoodpunt


    NPET dosent want an exit because HSE will be back to waiting trollies in corridors where it was before covid


  • #866
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Varadkar sounds so unconvincing trying to push this corona pass terrible idea.


  • #867
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    While he's stumbling through the interview on morning Ireland the point he's made on both Newstalk and Morning Ireland is essentially in 3 or 4 weeks if the UK haven't seen anything major from a spike in cases then this will all have to be revisited.

    Now that's just my reading of it, he's referenced them as being further down the Delta road a few times and how they'll be watching them. Might be just a kop out answer but you'd hope if the hospitals don't come under any real pressure over there that the NPHET models would be thrown out the window and remodeled by someone independent.

    It's quite clear he doesn't believe what he's saying either


  • #868
    ThunbergsAreGo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,399 ✭✭✭✭ThunbergsAreGo


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    Varadkar on NT now and for someone who is normally so comfortable in the media, he's stumbling badly to stand over this one.

    Totally unconvincing - even more than usual.

    I honestly don't think he (or many of them) believe in what has happened.

    Which makes it all the worse


  • #869
    ThunbergsAreGo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,399 ✭✭✭✭ThunbergsAreGo


    Relax brah wrote: »
    It’s disappointing for many but let’s be honest comparing ourselves to other countries is abit ridiculous - our drinking culture is the real issue. It’s a lack of trust from the government and you can’t blame them, anyone who frequents Dublin City centre will know this

    UK is the exact same


  • #870
    Cienciano
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,132 ✭✭✭✭Cienciano


    Relax brah wrote: »
    It’s disappointing for many but let’s be honest comparing ourselves to other countries is abit ridiculous - our drinking culture is the real issue. It’s a lack of trust from the government and you can’t blame them, anyone who frequents Dublin City centre will know this

    They could have done indoor dining with no alcohol then.


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  • #871
    Relax brah
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Relax brah


    paw patrol wrote: »
    our drinking culture is very similar to most northern european countries
    its' not unique.

    That’s simply not true.


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