COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

12-03-2021 12:25AM

Just looking at Novovax, they don't actually appear to be scaling production yet, they expect to be able to deliver 110m doses to the US in July, with some doses going to the UK before that.

I'd have my doubts that the US will even need them by July and can't understand why there hasn't been a bigger ramp up sooner.

ACitizenErased · 12-03-2021 12:28AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

No ACE .. It's in the actual article so I was highlighting it as not made clear in MnC's twitterfeed
Its 48.6% efficacy overall with the first South African trial among healthy adults .
For some reason it' s 55.4% among the second smaller group of HIV positive adults .
But both results are pretty good against the SA variant just not as good as we are now expecting given the high rate of efficacy we have from others .

You've misread - Among HIV-negative participants, 55.4% efficacy was observed

A complete analysis of vaccine efficacy among 147 PCR-positive cases (51 cases in the vaccine group and 96 in the placebo group) demonstrated an overall efficacy of 48.6% against predominantly variant strains (95% CI: 28.4, 63.1). The vast majority of cases circulating during the efficacy analysis were due to the B.1.351/501Y.V2 variant circulating in South Africa. All five cases of severe disease observed in the trial occurred in the placebo group. Among HIV-negative participants, 55.4% efficacy was observed (95% CI: 35.9, 68.9). The complete analysis shows that vaccine-induced protection began 14 days after dose 1 (42.7% 95% CI: 25.0, 56.3), although increased efficacy was observed 7 days after dose 2, the primary endpoint for the study.

https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-confirms-high-levels-efficacy-against-original-and

12-03-2021 12:33AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

No ACE .. It's in the actual article so I was highlighting it as not made clear in MnC's twitterfeed
Its 48.6% efficacy overall with the first South African trial among healthy adults .
For some reason it' s 55.4% among the second smaller group of HIV positive adults .
But both results are pretty good against the SA variant just not as good as we are now expecting given the high rate of efficacy we have from others .

There haven't been any proper studies of efficacy against the SA strain for most of the others. Novovax was in trials in South Africa during a period where the variant became prevalent but the sample is too small to make a determination either way. The other vaccines are presuming effectiveness against the strain based on in vitro studies.

A very small study had AZ's vaccine at 10% efficacy against the strain but again too small to actually make a conclusion.

Still nothing to suggest they won't be effective in preventing severe disease, but plenty of unknowns.

Melanchthon · 12-03-2021 12:46AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

EU was in talks for 200 million doses but they haven’t concluded yet

Novaxax bought a plant in the Czech Republic last year, I think they have capacity in Halle Germany (but is it certain place can make both Pfizer/Biontech and Novaxax??).
www.reuters.com/article/idUSL8N2JO32D

And there is the UK plant at Tee-side. It seems likely that the UK production will all be there, and production may have started in February as they have been gearing up for a while.
https://fujifilmdiosynth.com/about-us/press-releases/novavax-and-uk-government-announce-collaboration-and-purchase-agreement-for-novavax-covid-19-vaccine-candidate/

Probably big capacity already built up in the USA as they got a big lump of cash from operation warp speed (1.6 billion. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-10-29/inside-operation-warp-speed-s-18-billion-sprint-for-a-vaccine).

https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-and-fujifilm-diosynth-biotechnologies-initiate-large

They have a deal with the Serum Institute.

https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-announces-memorandum-understanding-gavi-cumulative

What I am wondering is what stockpiling has been done outside of the USA. And what's going to happen contractwise.

https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-announces-covid-19-vaccine-manufacturing-agreement-serum

Lists the manufacturing sites,

The antigen component of NVX-CoV2373 is being manufactured at Novavax CZ in Bohumil, Czech Republic (formerly Praha Vaccines), as well as at the following partnered manufacturing sites:

Biofabri in Spain
FUJIFILM Diosynth Biotechnologies (FDB) in both North Carolina and Texas in the United States
FDB in the United Kingdom
SIIPL in India
SK Bioscience in the Republic of Korea
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited in Japan

The thing is in terms of contracts, they've got them with a number of countries already and there's nothing yet about an EU deal. Take Australia, New Zealand 60 million doses already ordered, Canada has 76 million ordered and the agreement relating to building up manufacturing capacity in Canada is a later seperate deal.

https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-announces-memorandum-understanding-produce-covid-19

The EU is the odd one out in that it's got manufacturing but no deal (at least visible of the companies own Covid related press releases). What's going to happen in terms of them signing a deal with the EU at this stage if they have higher priority existing contracts they need to fulfill and signing jeopardizes the supply they were going to use (they were hoping for 2nd quarter delivery to Canada AFAIK).

Is this why there was a bit of talk about the EU negotiating a deal in Dec/Jan but it's gone quiet for over a month despite their trial data getting better and better?

Gael23 · 12-03-2021 12:49AM

What does this mean for the rollout plan?
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0311/1203502-astrazeneca-ireland/

marno21 · 12-03-2021 12:55AM

https://twitter.com/huffpostpol/status/1370155666808082433?s=21

Good news. Once the US stop banning exports the amount of vaccines available increases dramatically.

I hope the powers that be here are prepared for a massive glut in vaccines in the summer.

Apogee · 12-03-2021 01:13AM

Apogee wrote: »

NPHET Briefing

Butler/NIAC: Updated advice has been forwarded to acting CMO regarding use of AZ (for over 70s).

"NIAC recommends use of AstraZeneca vaccine for over 70s"
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0311/1203502-astrazeneca-ireland/

Goldengirl · 12-03-2021 01:13AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

You've misread - Among HIV-negative participants, 55.4% efficacy was observed

https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-confirms-high-levels-efficacy-against-original-and

Yes you are right there ACE , that is why I couldn't understand it .
Bedtime I think :pac:

Godot. · 12-03-2021 08:30AM

Any news yet about what the Moderna boys are up to? Ursula is a fan of ordering more and more off them anyway.

SusanC10 · 12-03-2021 08:33AM

Is there any update on trials for children ? Specifically the age 12+ (12-16) cohort ?

is_that_so · 12-03-2021 08:37AM

GSK/VIR antibody candidate with impressive results so far and they are moving for approval with the FDA and others.

...
an interim analysis of data from 583 patients enrolled in the COMET-ICE trial, which demonstrated an 85% (p=0.002) reduction in hospitalisation or death in patients receiving VIR-7831 as monotherapy compared to placebo

...

https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/vir-biotechnology-and-gsk-announce-vir-7831-reduces-hospitalisation-and-risk-of-death-in-early-treatment-of-adults-with-covid-19/

JacksonHeightsOwn · 12-03-2021 08:54AM

Godot. wrote: »

Any news yet about what the Moderna boys are up to? Ursula is a fan of ordering more and more off them anyway.

She'd make ordering a pizza from domino's into an ordeal......

dominatinMC · 12-03-2021 09:00AM

On a dark, dreary Friday, more than one year into this mess, it finally feels like the end is truly nigh. Each day there is more good news than bad, there are murmurings and whispers of returning to normal (eventually), "new normal" seems to have vanished from the lexicon, talk of variants has abated, only to be superseded by vaccine supply issues. And that in itself is both refreshing and reassuring. Amidst all the madness, we should recognise and appreciate the magnitude of this scientific achievement. Approximately 365 days since Covid-19 hit our shores, we have four working vaccines. The effectiveness of which appears to be improving by the day, with more emerging "real word" evidence from Israel, UK, etc.

People are frustrated, despondent, maybe even apathetic to the vaccine rollout, but I think those feelings are borne out of the fact that people know the end is in sight. Compare that to when we first heard of this disease, and we had a plethora of doomsdayers (given soapboxes by our own national broadcaster) claiming no return to normal, new normal, etc. How dim those voices seem now. And it won't be long more before their names are nothing but a distant (bad) memory. Keep the faith!

12-03-2021 09:31AM

marno21 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/huffpostpol/status/1370155666808082433?s=21

Good news. Once the US stop banning exports the amount of vaccines available increases dramatically.

I hope the powers that be here are prepared for a massive glut in vaccines in the summer.

Really impressive from America, I didn’t realise they were going so quickly!!

Hopefully that is good news for the EU in the months to come and allows us to catch up a bit quicker.

IRISHSPORTSGUY · 12-03-2021 09:42AM

Godot. wrote: »

Any news yet about what the Moderna boys are up to? Ursula is a fan of ordering more and more off them anyway.

Initial contract was 80m,signed off in November https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_20_2200

And the EU rubbed stamped an option for an extra 75m, for a total of 150m doses in total on February 17th 2021. An option for a further 150m in 2022 which will probably not be taken up.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_21_655

Well the good news is their European plant in Switzerland has been scaling up and deliveries here have increased recently. Also, relatively few countries in the world are on their order books because it's so expensive. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/tracking-covid-19-vaccines-around-the-world/

When Biden relaxes the US vaccine export ban, whenever that is, that'll be a big help because they are able to produce it at scale there (47m Moderna jabs there given to date according to OurWorldInData).

is_that_so · 12-03-2021 09:44AM

Research on B.1.351(501Y.V2 sequence) - SA variant, suggesting positive cross-reactive immune responses to other variants including the Brazilian P1 variant and that vaccines targeting that variant might cover everything else.

Collectively these data suggest that the antibody response in patients infected with 501Y.V2 has a broad specificity and that vaccines designed with the 501Y.V2 sequence may elicit more cross-reactive responses.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.06.434193v2

is_that_so · 12-03-2021 09:47AM

SusanC10 wrote: »

Is there any update on trials for children ? Specifically the age 12+ (12-16) cohort ?

They are all testing. J&J are even considering infants.

Sanjuro · 12-03-2021 09:55AM

My apologies if this has been asked before. As I'm sure it has. But is there a date for the approval of the Curevac and Novavax vaccines?

is_that_so · 12-03-2021 10:02AM

Sanjuro wrote: »

My apologies if this has been asked before. As I'm sure it has. But is there a date for the approval of the Curevac and Novavax vaccines?

Both are still testing but Curevac seem to think June and Novavax I think is for late summer.

average_runner · 12-03-2021 10:34AM

Martin now looking to meet the AZ CEO. Europe is so weak it is unbelievable.
After this, serious question needs to be asked of Europe. Because right now they are a weak little baby compare to the UK and USA.
Maybe the UK are right to jump ship.

Tacitus Kilgore · 12-03-2021 10:46AM

average_runner wrote: »

Martin now looking to meet the AZ CEO. Europe is so weak it is unbelievable.
After this, serious question needs to be asked of Europe. Because right now they are a weak little baby compare to the UK and USA.
Maybe the UK are right to jump ship.

yes, let's destroy our economy, prospects & future so we can 'rejoin' the UK and reaffirm our status in the world as a backwater.

All because of perceived issues with vaccine procurement. :rolleyes:

GTFOH with the Irexit nonsense, one (perceived) negative and we should toss out the toys.

I'll tell you something, the UK are fucked, it just hasn't set in yet.

Pablo Escobar · 12-03-2021 10:49AM

average_runner wrote: »

Martin now looking to meet the AZ CEO. Europe is so weak it is unbelievable.
After this, serious question needs to be asked of Europe. Because right now they are a weak little baby compare to the UK and USA.
Maybe the UK are right to jump ship.

Weak compared to the UK?

The UK is well on the way to becoming a failed state while most of the EU has barely noticed, such is the UK's 'strength'.

Yeah, lets copy that......

josip · 12-03-2021 10:53AM

dominatinMC wrote: »

On a dark, dreary Friday, more than one year into this mess, it finally feels like the end is truly nigh. Each day there is more good news than bad, there are murmurings and whispers of returning to normal (eventually), "new normal" seems to have vanished from the lexicon, talk of variants has abated, only to be superseded by vaccine supply issues. And that in itself is both refreshing and reassuring. Amidst all the madness, we should recognise and appreciate the magnitude of this scientific achievement. Approximately 365 days since Covid-19 hit our shores, we have four working vaccines. The effectiveness of which appears to be improving by the day, with more emerging "real word" evidence from Israel, UK, etc.

People are frustrated, despondent, maybe even apathetic to the vaccine rollout, but I think those feelings are borne out of the fact that people know the end is in sight. Compare that to when we first heard of this disease, and we had a plethora of doomsdayers (given soapboxes by our own national broadcaster) claiming no return to normal, new normal, etc. How dim those voices seem now. And it won't be long more before their names are nothing but a distant (bad) memory. Keep the faith!

Did anyone else start reading this to the tune of Hotel California ?

average_runner · 12-03-2021 11:05AM

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

yes, let's destroy our economy, prospects & future so we can 'rejoin' the UK and reaffirm our status in the world as a backwater.

All because of perceived issues with vaccine procurement. :rolleyes:

GTFOH with the Irexit nonsense, one (perceived) negative and we should toss out the toys.

I'll tell you something, the UK are fucked, it just hasn't set in yet.

Maybe long term they are but we do need to figure out why we are so weak right now.

This delay is costing lives, which is way more important than the EU saving a few coppers

average_runner · 12-03-2021 11:06AM

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

Weak compared to the UK?

The UK is well on the way to becoming a failed state while most of the EU has barely noticed, such is the UK's 'strength'.

Yeah, lets copy that......

Right now we are weak compare to the UK in the battle against Covid and you can't deny that.

Its costing more lives this delay, especially in the mental health area.

celt262 · 12-03-2021 11:11AM

average_runner wrote: »

Right now we are weak compare to the UK in the battle against Covid and you can't deny that.

Its costing more lives this delay, especially in the mental health area.

Is there many in the mental health area?

average_runner · 12-03-2021 11:13AM

celt262 wrote: »

Is there many in the mental health area?

Well i know of 4 people since the new year that started that have died due to mental health
And one life is too much to lose

CrabRevolution · 12-03-2021 11:14AM

average_runner wrote: »

Right now we are weak compare to the UK in the battle against Covid and you can't deny that.

Its costing more lives this delay, especially in the mental health area.

You're right, we'd have to double our death rate to catch up with them....

Tacitus Kilgore · 12-03-2021 11:14AM

average_runner wrote: »

Maybe long term they are but we do need to figure out why we are so weak right now.

This delay is costing lives, which is way more important than the EU saving a few coppers

average_runner wrote: »

Right now we are weak compare to the UK in the battle against Covid and you can't deny that.

Its costing more lives this delay, especially in the mental health area.

there are many people better read than me who can explain the vaccine situation to you. However, I know plenty about what being in the EU means to Ireland.

This pandemic is temporary, the EU will be there long after the pandemic goes away, do you honestly think *this is enough to throw away 40+ years of progress & prosperity?

*whatever this is

Again, yourself and the other 5 Irexiters (that aren't UK based) can go away with this nonsense. You are peddling bullshit.

Tacitus Kilgore · 12-03-2021 11:15AM

average_runner wrote: »

Well i know of 4 people since the new year that started that have died due to mental health
And one life is too much to lose

What does that have to do with EU membership? If they were in the UK they probably would have died of covid already.

COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

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