Provisional Vaccine Allocation - updated 31/03/21

Beasty · 08-12-2020 11:14pm #1

As it's likely to be subject to quite a lot of discussion, and it may change as the effectiveness of new vaccines across different categories become clearer I think a dedicated thread is warranted

Today's provisional allocation:
1 People aged 65 years and older who are residents of long-term care facilities (likely to include all staff and residents on site)
2 Frontline healthcare workers
3 People aged 70 and older
4 Other healthcare workers not in direct patient contact
5 People aged 65-69
6 Key workers
7 People aged 18-64 with certain medical conditions
8 Residents of long-term care facilities aged 18-64
9 People aged 18-64 living or working in crowded settings
10 Key workers in essential jobs who cannot avoid a high risk of exposure
11 People working in education sector
12 People aged 55-64
13 Other workers in occupations important to the functioning of society
14 Other people aged 18-54
15 People aged under 18 and pregnant women

More information here

Beasty · 08-12-2020 11:17pm

One of the interesting questions is how many people fall into each Group. I suspect the age categories will be relatively easy to establish based on Census data. I wonder if the HSE or Government will provide estimates of each Group

JP Liz V1 · 09-12-2020 12:01am

I just hope it is rolled out soon and is a success

touts · 09-12-2020 12:16am

Its a fairly meaningless PR stunt of a list. They need to share the plan to vaccinate 4.5 million people if they even have such a plan Where will the vaccines be administered. what capacity is there weekly, monthly etc. How will they track who got it and who didn't. They just have not shared any details and that is very worrying.

Knowing you're 13th/14th on the list isn't so bad if you can also see that they expect to get to those people in say February or March. But it's a right kick in the bollocks if it turns out to be next October or November. Given the lack of ANY details of the rollout plan and the track record of the HSE I suspect I will be vaccinated closer to the latter than the former.

_Kaiser_ · 09-12-2020 12:22am

So I'm in group 14 per the above - mid-40s, no underlying conditions, rarely get any sort of illness, office job working from home since March.

As I'm not deemed a priority, I assume that's confirmation that I'm low risk to or from anyone.

Can I get back to living so?

gooseygander · 09-12-2020 12:29am

Prisoners and incarcerated criminals (group 9) will be vaccinated before teachers (group 11). Criminals should be very last in the queue in my opinion. I mean if we are making a list surely they should be at the bottom. Am I wrong here ??, if so please tell who should be last for the jab, and why.

ceegee · 09-12-2020 12:51am

gooseygander wrote: »

Prisoners and incarcerated criminals (group 9) will be vaccinated before teachers (group 11). Criminals should be very last in the queue in my opinion. I mean if we are making a list surely they should be at the bottom. Am I wrong here ??, if so please tell who should be last for the jab, and why.

A prison outbreak is highly likely to spread due to close conditions, taking up hospital resources. It's also pretty much impossible for prison guards to social distance from prisoners.

The aim of the list is to minimise the strain on our health system, not a list of who you like.

astrofool · 09-12-2020 12:58am

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

So I'm in group 14 per the above - mid-40s, no underlying conditions, rarely get any sort of illness, office job working from home since March.

As I'm not deemed a priority, I assume that's confirmation that I'm low risk to or from anyone.

Can I get back to living so?

No, because until 1-13 are vaccinated, you're a vector for spreading the disease to those more vulnerable than you.

gooseygander · 09-12-2020 1:03am

ceegee wrote: »

A prison outbreak is highly likely to spread due to close conditions, taking up hospital resources. It's also pretty much impossible for prison guards to social distance from prisoners.

The aim of the list is to minimise the strain on our health system, not a list of who you like.

I am not talking about the prison guards, I class them as front line and should be a priority for early vaccination. But prisoners/ criminals should be last. I mean they are mostly in a controlled environment and prison visits are currently not permitted. Leave them until last please.

astrofool · 09-12-2020 1:09am

gooseygander wrote: »

I am not talking about the prison guards, I class them as front line and should be a priority for early vaccination. But prisoners/ criminals should be last. I mean they are mostly in a controlled environment and prison visits are currently not permitted. Leave them until last please.

I don't think you understand what prisons are like, and thus have formed a bad opinion.

gooseygander · 09-12-2020 1:14am

astrofool wrote: »

I don't think you understand what prisons are like, and thus have formed a bad opinion.

Incorrect assumption. To date there have been no outbreaks in any Irish prision and the single digit positive cases have been controlled with very strict procedures. I am not putting them to the back of the queue because I want any person to suffer but because I believe teachers and key workers are more at risk in crowded classrooms and dealing with large masses of the public.

astrofool · 09-12-2020 1:29am

gooseygander wrote: »

Incorrect assumption. To date there have been no outbreaks in any Irish prision and the single digit positive cases have been controlled with very strict procedures. I am not putting them to the back of the queue because I want any person to suffer but because I believe teachers and key workers are more at risk in crowded classrooms and dealing with large masses of the public.

What you're saying then is that you want teachers to be put above those who work in crowded settings and key workers with essential jobs, or you want a classroom to be re-classified as a crowded setting (it isn't when compared to actual crowded settings).

Atlantic Dawn · 09-12-2020 1:38am

Will there be a way to bypass the ranking system by paying €250 or so to skip the q? Can't see people who pay their way in the world waiting to the back of the q for 1 year plus.

gooseygander · 09-12-2020 1:45am

astrofool wrote: »

What you're saying then is that you want teachers to be put above those who work in crowded settings and key workers with essential jobs, or you want a classroom to be re-classified as a crowded setting (it isn't when compared to actual crowded settings).

No I am not saying that, I have already stated I believe that prison officers and prison staff are frontline workers and should be treated as such. I have said I believe teachers should get jab before incarcerated prisoners who I believe are in a more controlled environment with restricted movement and no visits permitted from “ outside world”. Please read posts before telling me what I am saying.

vrusinov · 09-12-2020 1:50am

touts wrote: »

Knowing you're 13th/14th on the list isn't so bad if you can also see that they expect to get to those people in say February or March. But it's a right kick in the bollocks if it turns out to be next October or November. Given the lack of ANY details of the rollout plan and the track record of the HSE I suspect I will be vaccinated closer to the latter than the former.

Reading some articles estimating manufacturing capacities, my expectations it'll take over a year to vaccinate everyone willing.

However I'm hoping to see reduction of hospitalization rates soon, and gradual reduction of cases once frontline workers are vaccinated.

Unknownability · 09-12-2020 1:54am

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Will there be a way to bypass the ranking system by paying €250 or so to skip the q? Can't see people who pay their way in the world waiting to the back of the q for 1 year plus.

Agreed once there is no issue with supply of the vaccine, just the government's botched roll out then I don't have any moral objections to people purchasing it privately.

It will inadvertently release pressure on the public roll out and others will as a byproduct get it quicker.

Atlantic Dawn · 09-12-2020 1:56am

vrusinov wrote: »

However I'm hoping to see reduction of hospitalization rates soon, and gradual reduction of cases once frontline workers are vaccinated.

Yes if you vaccinate those in nursing homes, those over 65, those working in healthcare, others vulnerable the impact on everyone else of the virus is negligible. I'd guess this group of people is circa 1.5million or so, given they need 2 doses it's a lot at 3 million.

We do 2 million NCT tests a year that take circa 15 minutes plus each, should be far simpler to stick a syringe in an arm once stocks allow, 5 minute task at most, certainly can be done.

beachhead · 09-12-2020 2:07am

gooseygander wrote: »

I am not talking about the prison guards, I class them as front line and should be a priority for early vaccination. But prisoners/ criminals should be last. I mean they are mostly in a controlled environment and prison visits are currently not permitted. Leave them until last please.

Prisoners and guards live together.a prison is about as controlled as a so called wet bar.Only difference is the guards get outside the walls for a short time.

Geuze · 09-12-2020 2:40am

An alternative approach to allocation:

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/12/free-market-vaccines.html

ShineOn7 · 09-12-2020 9:33am

This Friday, is the plan to still announce how they're going to do this? Or was yesterday their vaccine announcement a few days early?

They can't just put out a list and not say how they're going to do upto 8 million vaccinations (Pfizer shot x 2)

I realize we're using more than Pfizer and it could be more like 4-5 million vaccinations, but Mr Trampoline still needs to announce the action plan

stephenjmcd · 09-12-2020 9:59am

ShineOn7 wrote: »

This Friday, is the plan to still announce how they're going to do this? Or was yesterday their vaccine announcement a few days early?

They can't just put out a list and not say how they're going to do upto 8 million vaccinations (Pfizer shot x 2)

I realize we're using more than Pfizer and it could be more like 4-5 million vaccinations, but Mr Trampoline still needs to announce the action plan

Government to get the action plan on rollout from the taskforce by Friday, to go to cabinet for approval next Tuesday.

Yesterday was just the provisional list of allocation preference

is_that_so · 09-12-2020 10:05am

vrusinov wrote: »

Reading some articles estimating manufacturing capacities, my expectations it'll take over a year to vaccinate everyone willing.

However I'm hoping to see reduction of hospitalization rates soon, and gradual reduction of cases once frontline workers are vaccinated.

It really shouldn't take that long at all. You'd expect them to blitz the first 4 groups by March, that 1m Donnelly has been talking about. From then on, supplies should rise quickly and we may also have a few more vaccines to add. By mid-summer we may have more than we need, so the rollout plan coming on Friday is crucial. I think it will take 12 months and more worldwide but we should be done by September.

JeffKenna · 09-12-2020 10:10am

Strange how pregnant women are so far down the list no?

is_that_so · 09-12-2020 10:11am

JeffKenna wrote: »

Strange how pregnant women are so far down the list no?

I think it's because they haven't really tested on that group.

banie01 · 09-12-2020 10:27am

JeffKenna wrote: »

Strange how pregnant women are so far down the list no?

As is_that_so has posited, pregnant ladies are low on the list due to an abundance of caution.

It's assumed the vaccine is safe for them, but there is no data to support the assumption given:
1, that the virus is in circulation only a year. And.
2, that the trial data to date only covers an @6month window and pregnant women are excluded from trials.

Data on pregnancy and any after effects will build as women who were unknowingly pregnant at time of their vaccination report any Ill effects.

Regarding prisons, I'd be very much of the opinion that vaccination there takes place as soon as possible.
Prison in Ireland is ostensibly a means of reform.
Currently prisoners are on extended lockdown, restricted interaction and mixing and minimal visits.
Yes,the reasons for that caution are valid in that they are measure to prevent the virus entering a contained and highly spreadable population.
We should not however use the fact that someone is a felon, to bump them down the list.
If the purpose of Prison is to reform? Treating prisoners as 2nd class completely undermines that approach.
We are better than that, I hope.

I'm in group 7, and look forward to my jab.
I won't be trying to jump the list, nor arguing that anyone above me is denied the opportunity to avail of it.
Stay safe and well folks!
The end of this shítshow is nigh!

Bicyclette · 09-12-2020 11:07am

Already I see an error in this:

This is the provisional order in which people in Ireland will be vaccinated against COVID-19.

1 People aged 65 years and older who are residents of long-term care facilities (likely to include all staff and residents on site)
2 Frontline healthcare workers
3 People aged 70 and older
4 Other healthcare workers not in direct patient contact
5 People aged 65-69
6 Key workers
7 People aged 18-64 with certain medical conditions
8 Residents of long-term care facilities aged 18-64
9 People aged 18-64 living or working in crowded settings
10 Key workers in essential jobs who cannot avoid a high risk of exposure
11 People working in education sector
12 People aged 55-64
13 Other workers in occupations important to the functioning of society
14 Other people aged 18-54
15 People aged under 18 and pregnant women

6 is Key workers.
10 is Key workers in essential jobs who cannot avoid a high risk of exposure.

Surely 10 and 6 are transposed.

I'm considered an essential worker, working from home. Half our team are working from home, half in the office. If our frontline team become unwell, we will be called in to person the desks. And I'm over 55. Not sure where I will fit in!!

And absolutely, when the vaccine is made available for me, I will take it. Of course there will be a level of trepidation. But at my age the risk of not taking it is far greater than the risk of taking it.

paw patrol · 09-12-2020 11:16am

JeffKenna wrote: »

Strange how pregnant women are so far down the list no?

In the literature - from the vaccine developer

they advise that they have completed no testing on fertility and women should test as not pregnant prior to taking the vaccine and should not get pregnant within 2 months post vaccine

from uk gov

Here are the key points you should consider until we have more evidence:

if you are pregnant you should not be vaccinated – you can be vaccinated after your pregnancy is over
if you think you may be pregnant you should delay vaccination until you are sure you are not
if you are planning to get pregnant in the next 3 months, you should delay your vaccination
if you know you are not pregnant you can start the two-dose course now and you should avoid getting pregnant until at least 2 months after the second dose
if you have had the first dose and then become pregnant you should delay the second dose until after the pregnancy is over

given women who get pregnant are of a younger age (little risk) I wouldn't bother if I was them.

speckle · 09-12-2020 11:32am

I see one glaring ommision and one potentially unusual placement that I woukd like to see the data behind the choice.

One if a country has a limited supply of doses should people who have had covid and amounted an acceptable antibody response not be put further back to free up doses for those in higher risk groups?

Two yet again those who are high risk and younger seem very low down (like most of the time during this) maybe that should be split in two depending on their co morbiditys. eg only severe asthma has a higher risk. I thought (maybe incorrectly) that apart from age and HCws that it really depends on what co morbidities you have how high risk you are? With over 91%+ of 80+ year olds surviving now are they especially if not in a nursing home still higher risk than a younger person with cancer diabetes or heart issues?

Really the should not release a list without giving the data to backup the reasons why/risk assement and then the public would be much clearer. And that information does exist. Typical.

speckle · 09-12-2020 11:35am

paw patrol wrote: »

...
given women who get pregnant are of a younger age (little risk) I wouldn't bother if I was them.

Agree unless they have a high risk co morbidity... then they need to talk to their gp and make an informed decision one way or the other.

astrofool · 09-12-2020 12:03pm

gooseygander wrote: »

No I am not saying that, I have already stated I believe that prison officers and prison staff are frontline workers and should be treated as such. I have said I believe teachers should get jab before incarcerated prisoners who I believe are in a more controlled environment with restricted movement and no visits permitted from “ outside world”. Please read posts before telling me what I am saying.

We let the risk of exposure and consequences of exposure determine the order people get the jab, not who or what they are. While the list doesn't mention prisoners specifically at all, those who are in not crowded setting will likely be below those who are in crowded settings.

astrofool · 09-12-2020 12:05pm

Bicyclette wrote: »

6 is Key workers.
10 is Key workers in essential jobs who cannot avoid a high risk of exposure.

Surely 10 and 6 are transposed.

I'm considered an essential worker, working from home. Half our team are working from home, half in the office. If our frontline team become unwell, we will be called in to person the desks. And I'm over 55. Not sure where I will fit in!!

And absolutely, when the vaccine is made available for me, I will take it. Of course there will be a level of trepidation. But at my age the risk of not taking it is far greater than the risk of taking it.

I'd imagine there's a *detail key missing that better describes each group, otherwise 10 and 6 don't make sense as 10 is a sub group of 6.

Provisional Vaccine Allocation - updated 31/03/21

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