Provisional Vaccine Allocation - updated 31/03/21

ShineOn7

speckle wrote: »

the provisional schedule link

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/39038-provisional-vaccine-allocation-groups/

I'm glad this says "provisional"


Because if people with Downs Syndrome and other conditions don't get it before people with "body mass index >40" (PC speak for "people who didn't look after themselves") then there'll be fúcking uproar

astrofool

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'm glad this says "provisional"


Because if people with Downs Syndrome and other conditions don't get it before people with "body mass index >40" (PC speak for "people who didn't look after themselves") then there'll be fúcking uproar

Why would we give it sooner to people less at risk of the disease? The goal is to prevent deaths, not to decide who is worthy or not to receive a medicine that will save their life.

ShineOn7

astrofool wrote: »

Why would we give it sooner to people less at risk of the disease? The goal is to prevent deaths, not to decide who is worthy or not to receive a medicine that will save their life.

So the Government are right to give it to those overweight before those with Downs Syndrome?

Nonsense.

There will be ructions over this

CIARAN_BOYLE

ShineOn7 wrote: »

So the Government are right to give it to those overweight before those with Downs Syndrome?

Nonsense.

There will be ructions over this

Who is at higher risk of death if infected?

The obese or those with downs syndrome? Genuine question.

Also did the trials include people with downs syndrome?

average_runner

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'm glad this says "provisional"


Because if people with Downs Syndrome and other conditions don't get it before people with "body mass index >40" (PC speak for "people who didn't look after themselves") then there'll be fúcking uproar

But there is people with body mass that size due to medical reasons also

average_runner

ShineOn7 wrote: »

So the Government are right to give it to those overweight before those with Downs Syndrome?

Nonsense.

There will be ructions over this

In fairness it depends on the science. Which category is at more risk with the virus? I don't know.

bush

Are down syndrome people high risk?

Sconsey

Beasty wrote: »

One of the interesting questions is how many people fall into each Group. I suspect the age categories will be relatively easy to establish based on Census data. I wonder if the HSE or Government will provide estimates of each Group

637,000 over 65 years of age (2016 census)
210,000 total HCW from HSA in 2006...I would up this to about 250,000 today on the assumption that it does not include care home workers and some increase in HSE numbers.


So ballpark figure of 887,000 to cover the first 5 groups on the list.

Who knows how many key workers there are really. Very difficult to figure numbers out based on statistics after the groups 6 and 7.

Amirani

ShineOn7 wrote: »

So the Government are right to give it to those overweight before those with Downs Syndrome?

Nonsense.

There will be ructions over this

No there won't. Vaccinating higher risk individuals sooner is not going to cause any ructions, because it's the sensible and ethical thing to do. It's also the same thing most of the developed world has indicated that they're going to be doing.

Amirani

touts wrote: »

Its a fairly meaningless PR stunt of a list. They need to share the plan to vaccinate 4.5 million people if they even have such a plan Where will the vaccines be administered. what capacity is there weekly, monthly etc. How will they track who got it and who didn't. They just have not shared any details and that is very worrying.

Knowing you're 13th/14th on the list isn't so bad if you can also see that they expect to get to those people in say February or March. But it's a right kick in the bollocks if it turns out to be next October or November. Given the lack of ANY details of the rollout plan and the track record of the HSE I suspect I will be vaccinated closer to the latter than the former.

Given there hasn't been a single vaccine approved by the EMA yet, then giving a date for each group would be ridiculous and basically lying to people.

They haven't shared details yet because they don't know yet.

is_that_so

Amirani wrote: »

Given there hasn't been a single vaccine approved by the EMA yet, then giving a date for each group would be ridiculous and basically lying to people.

They haven't shared details yet because they don't know yet.

Early January is the commonly touted point for the EU and the EMA will have an answer on Pfizer by Dec 29 and Moderna a week or so later. I reckon the first four groups will be blitzed in a few weeks.

astrofool

ShineOn7 wrote: »

So the Government are right to give it to those overweight before those with Downs Syndrome?

Nonsense.

There will be ructions over this

The government will be right to give the vaccination to those most at risk of getting the disease and of the diseases consequences, regardless of who they are or why they are at risk. That is the moral path to choose.

I say this as an individual who will likely be in the last group, but have friends and family in multiple other groups.

The risk drives the priority, otherwise it descends into mayhem with everyone declaring their life as more important than someone else's, which is ethically wrong.

CIARAN_BOYLE

is_that_so wrote: »

Early January is the commonly touted point for the EU and the EMA will have an answer on Pfizer by Dec 29 and Moderna a week or so later. I reckon the first four groups will be blitzed in a few weeks.

I would be shocked and amazed (in a good way) if the first four groups are done in a few weeks. My own suspicion is the first 2 groups will be done for dose one in 3 weeks and most of the next 3 weeks will be spent giving them their second shot.

is_that_so

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I would be shocked and amazed (in a good way) if the first four groups are done in a few weeks. My own suspicion is the first 2 groups will be done for dose one in 3 weeks and most of the next 3 weeks will be spent giving them their second shot.

I think they have already the infrastructure to do the first two groups very quickly, plus we'll have a 2nd and probably 3rd vaccine in January along with increased vaccine supplies. It's certainly not pie in the sky to imagine they can do it very fast.

Gael23

I’m in 7 and on medication that weakens my immune system, I expected to be much higher up the list. What they haven’t said is how long they expect to take to get through each group.
There’s also no mention of young people on cancer treatment or dialysis for example with serious illness who would likely die if they get the virus

Sconsey

Gael23 wrote: »

I’m in 7 and on medication that weakens my immune system, I expected to be much higher up the list. What they haven’t said is how long they expect to take to get through each group.
There’s also no mention of young people on cancer treatment or dialysis for example with serious illness who would likely die if they get the virus

Impossible to put timelines on it when they don't know what vaccines will be available when, we just have to wait an see.

Anyone under 65 that is at any kind of risk is group 7, doesn't matter how high the risk is. I'm not impressed with that myself, I think there are far more people at a much higher risk than a healthy person that happens to be over 65 years of age.

Beasty

Sconsey wrote: »

Impossible to put timelines on it when they don't know what vaccines will be available when, we just have to wait an see.

I'm in category 12. Bit cheesed off my 60th counted for nothing:pac:

Seriously though, there will obviously be a clamour in the early days assuming Pfizer gets the green light. However there are suggestions that different vaccines may be better suited to different categories of individual. It may well be the Moderna or Astra Zeneca or indeed one of the others is better for a healthy individual of my age. In a sense being a bit further down the priority list could result in a "better" vaccine being used, while those at the top of the list may end up with something that is not their best option.

positivenote

Hi all,
Any timeline on when the vaccine will be available for my mum who has been cocooning since April. She is 75 and has COPD and is eager to get it
Thanks

is_that_so

positivenote wrote: »

Hi all,
Any timeline on when the vaccine will be available for my mum who has been cocooning since April. She is 75 and has COPD and is eager to get it
Thanks

Probably Group 3 but check with GP and ask. That is likely to be February.

Beasty

Threads merged

grassylawn

The vaccine rollout plan has a category "certain medical conditions".

Have they published a list of what these conditions are?

Otherwise I assume they are the same as those conditions they have listed as placing people at higher risk.

CIARAN_BOYLE

From the roll out plan you referred to.


**Chronic heart disease, including hypertension with cardiac involvement; chronic respiratory disease, including asthma requiring continuous or repeated use of systemic steroids or with previous exacerbations requiring hospital admission; Type 1 and 2 diabetes; chronic neurological disease; chronic kidney disease; body mass index >40; immunosuppression due to disease or treatment; chronic liver disease.

Beasty

Threads merged

Gael23

How will verification for that group 7 work?

Zaph

Gael23 wrote: »

How will verification for that group 7 work?

Well for people with certain conditions, diabetes for example, they will be signed up to the Long Term Illness scheme, so it should be pretty straightforward to identify that particular group. Hard to say though how they would go about identifying everyone with a BMI >40, for instance.

PhoenixParker

I'd imagine we'll be looking at the Astra Zeneca vaccine distributed by GPs and pharmacies at that point. GPS will presumably be the gate keepers.

Gael23

Zaph wrote: »

Well for people with certain conditions, diabetes for example, they will be signed up to the Long Term Illness scheme, so it should be pretty straightforward to identify that particular group. Hard to say though how they would go about identifying everyone with a BMI >40, for instance.

I’m on immune suppressant medication for something which isn’t on the long term illness scheme though

Dhenalau

Link provided from Irish Examiner and other online newspapers:
https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/ireland-vaccine-queue
Example for me (no health issues and 60yo)

---

Based on your profile, there are between 1,286,753 and 1,581,026 people in front of you in the queue for a COVID vaccine across Ireland. 📅 Given a vaccination rate of 42,000 a week and an uptake of 74%, you should expect to receive your first dose of vaccine between 8/16/2021 and 10/4/2021.

You should then get your second dose by between 9/6/2021 and 10/25/2021.

---

Please step on it Ireland!

o1s1n

Yeah I just used that calculator myself and was rather shocked with the results!

flower tattoo

You’re lucky
I could be May 2022!!

I actually did something similar using a UK address and I’d be looking at April this year

TheChizler

So you put in a slow rate and are giving out about the result? Is there any reason to believe we'll be stuck at 42,000 per week forever?

CIARAN_BOYLE

42000 vaccines a week.

When we receive 40000 a week from pfizer and rhats expected to double in q2.

When we receive vaccines from Moderna (started yesterday rate unconfirmed). Expected to start around 10,000 a week.

When Oxford is expected to be approved within the next month (a bigger order than Pfizer).

Theres your problems.

Your calculator may be wrong. Just a bit.

ixoy

*drink*

There's more vaccines being approved and a greater supply of existing approved vaccines coming. We're getting through the vaccines largely as they come in.
42k is the current dosage rate, not the rate we will always be vaccinating at, especially if/when the likes of Oxford/AZ get approved.

TheChizler

TheChizler wrote: »

So you put in a slow rate and are giving out about the result? Is there any reason to believe we'll be stuck at 42,000 per week forever?

Yes, we have the HSE.

noodler

TheChizler wrote: »

So you put in a slow rate and are giving out about the result? Is there any reason to believe we'll be stuck at 42,000 per week forever?

We could be getting a million a month by May FFS

Terrible website

is_that_so

Anyone in Group 12 onward will be waiting till the summer anyway. There is, of course, a question of what they might do with the 18-34s, they could be moved up over other groups.

_Kaiser_

Based on your profile, there are between 1,581,026 and 2,944,914 people in front of you in the queue for a COVID vaccine across Ireland.
�� Given a vaccination rate of 42,000 a week and an uptake of 74%, you should expect to receive your first dose of vaccine between 04/10/2021 and 19/05/2022.

You should then get your second dose by between 25/10/2021 and 09/06/2022.



... absolute nonsense!

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes, we have the HSE.

Who do flu vaccinations every year, including 1.3m last year.

Atlantic Dawn

If any stocks of vaccines go stale from not being used because they are administered from 9.30 to 5pm Monday to Friday heads need to roll.

is_that_so

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Based on your profile, there are between 1,581,026 and 2,944,914 people in front of you in the queue for a COVID vaccine across Ireland.
�� Given a vaccination rate of 42,000 a week and an uptake of 74%, you should expect to receive your first dose of vaccine between 04/10/2021 and 19/05/2022.

You should then get your second dose by between 25/10/2021 and 09/06/2022.



... absolute nonsense!

And wrong. We will get to 100K a week comfortably when supplies increase.

Lantern Jaw

is_that_so wrote: »

Anyone in Group 12 onward will be waiting till the summer anyway. There is, of course, a question of what they might do with the 18-34s, they could be moved up over other groups.

Ahead of who?

Atlantic Dawn

is_that_so wrote: »

Who do flu vaccinations every year, including 1.3m last year.

You can half that capability as Covid vaccine requires 2 doses.

is_that_so

Lantern Jaw wrote: »

Ahead of who?

That depends on those coordinating it. My guess is they could possibly be at the head of the queue of the 18-54 group.

noodler

is_that_so wrote: »

Who do flu vaccinations every year, including 1.3m last year.

Specifically, 1.2m done between September 2020 and Jan 2021. All at pharmacy and GP.

I thought everyone knew we are waiting for decent quantities of Moderna and Astra (astra approval first tho) before we can utilize that network?

It's been two weeks FFS.

Edit: obviously flu vaccine is a one dose jab so need to recalculate accordingly for Covid19

is_that_so

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

You can half that capability as Covid vaccine requires 2 doses.

The point is it's not new to them and they do that many shots annually over a number of months and this will be a longer period, of up to 9 months. The HSE has its issues but I really don't get why some people seem so keen to see it fail on this.

Dr Turk Turkelton

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Based on your profile, there are between 1,581,026 and 2,944,914 people in front of you in the queue for a COVID vaccine across Ireland.
�� Given a vaccination rate of 42,000 a week and an uptake of 74%, you should expect to receive your first dose of vaccine between 04/10/2021 and 19/05/2022.

You should then get your second dose by between 25/10/2021 and 09/06/2022.



... absolute nonsense!

I'm the same. Time to let people pay for it and let the private sector get it sorted.

is_that_so

noodler wrote: »

Specifically, 1.2m done between September 2020 and Jan 2021. All at pharmacy and GP.

I thought everyone knew we are waiting for decent quantities of Moderna and Astra (astra approval first tho) before we can utilize that network?

It's been two weeks FFS.

Edit: obviously flu vaccine is a one dose jab so need to recalculate accordingly for Covid19

Knowing and being rational about it are not necessarily linked.

L1011

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

If any stocks of vaccines go stale from not being used because they are administered from 9.30 to 5pm Monday to Friday heads need to roll.

There's currently no need to go beyond that timeframe because there is not even sufficient supplies to take that entire timeframe.

When the two adrenovirus / non-frozen ones come on stream it'll likely be 7 days, 8-8 or longer and in vastly more places.

Dr Turk Turkelton wrote: »

I'm the same. Time to let people pay for it and let the private sector get it sorted.

The HSE has experience in delivering millions of vaccinations a year

The private sector have absolutely diddly squat. Few tens of thousands of tropical travel vaccines a year maybe.

is_that_so

Dr Turk Turkelton wrote: »

I'm the same. Time to let people pay for it and let the private sector get it sorted.

Do you have anyone in the private sector in mind?

Bicyclette

A friend works in the biomedical field. Knows a bit about the vaccines. Reckons the Government is being clever in not rushing into things.

The AZ vaccine is the easiest to use and the least likely to have side effects. Its much easier to produce, cheaper. And its a one shot only.

The Pfizer and Modena vaccines are unknowns. By letting the UK steam ahead, any potential issues are flagged there in time to be cautious here. The army, pharmacists, practice nurses, dentists etc can all be rolled out quickly in a mass vaccination when we get the supplies of AZ.