Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

MOR316 · 26-11-2020 8:41pm

pjohnson wrote: »

Who said 10,000,000 cases a day then?

Seems like a generalisation. Kinda like the person calling Ireland a nation of alco's.....

But there literally has been people saying there'll be thousands of cases a day.

That's not a generalisation, that's a fact! Go through any of the Covid threads, you'll see them. Most are the same people, some were just WUMs

D.Q · 26-11-2020 8:43pm

I've been as guilty of it as anyone but there has been an incredible amount of energy expended between both sides bickering on here haha

None of what we post matters a toss and it's been going on for 9 months straight haha.

We won't affect any decision made and I don't think either side of the argument has conceded an inch. Brutal trench warfare.

We'll need a Christmas day truce with a kickabout

Eod100 · 26-11-2020 8:46pm

D.Q wrote: »

I've been as guilty of it as anyone but there has been an incredible amount of energy expended between both sides bickering on here haha

None of what we post matters a toss and it's been going on for 9 months straight haha.

We won't affect any decision made and I don't think either side of the argument has conceded an inch. Brutal trench warfare.

We'll need a Christmas day truce with a kickabout

I think the government is hoping covid gives is all a Christmas day truce tbh ha

pjohnson · 26-11-2020 8:47pm

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's called sarcasm.

Mr the Frog pulled the 1000 cases per day by Christmas eve card when posting earlier.

Ah maybe you missed the explanation as to how 1000 cases is a possibility.

You had your theory which is a bit hazy and certainly lacking any data or numbers.......but hey you do you.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Blah blah blah exponential growth blah blah blah level 3 didnt work blah blah blah “end zone” blah blah

But heres the mathematical explanation. You used to post some modified stats day by day so surely you could follow the below post helpfully explaining how its possible?

Benimar wrote: »

We first hit 1,000 cases on October 10th. 28 days earlier we had 196 cases.

We have 300+ cases today. What’s 28 days time? Yep, Christmas Eve.

It’s not impossible that if we open too much up we could hit 1,000 cases in a month.

MOR316 wrote: »

But there literally has been people saying there'll be thousands of cases a day.

That's not a generalisation, that's a fact! Go through any of the Covid threads, you'll see them. Most are the same people, some were just WUMs

Havent heard thousands for a few months but how it can reach a thousand is broken down by Benimar.

Ohmeha · 26-11-2020 8:48pm

Richard Hillman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1332041083451285505?s=19

All the numbers today suggest today's numbers were an anomaly. Tests down massively, around 1/3rd. Numbers up massively, again by about 1/3rd. Something ain't right.

Numbers will regularly go above the respective daily 7 day rolling averages when cases are on a falling trajectory, no significant outliers/anomalies and NPHET/Tony Holohan aren't fiddling the numbers which will disappoint some on this forum

Here's all the numbers since Level introduction on October 22nd, by my count 11 out of 36 days where daily numbers were above the 7 day rolling average

Day Month Date Deaths Weekly 7 Day Av ROI Weekly 5 Day Av 5 Day % 7 Day Av 7 Day % 14 Day Av 14 Day %
Thursday October 22nd 3 33 4.71 1,066 8,092 1,163.20 7.96% 1,156.00 26.85% 1,033.64 135.61%
Friday October 23rd 7 37 5.29 777 7,869 1,062.00 -9.37% 1,124.14 16.37% 1,045.07 127.44%
Saturday October 24th 4 33 4.71 859 7,452 1,027.60 -11.34% 1,064.57 6.06% 1,034.14 101.17%
Sunday October 25th 0 30 4.29 1,025 7,194 978.80 -16.47% 1,027.71 -4.02% 1,049.21 93.76%
Monday October 26th 3 33 4.71 939 7,102 933.20 -22.57% 1,014.57 -7.78% 1,057.36 84.67%
Tuesday October 27th 5 25 3.57 720 6,553 864.00 -25.72% 936.14 -19.68% 1,050.86 73.82%
Wednesday October 28th 6 28 4.00 675 6,061 843.60 -20.56% 865.86 -26.36% 1,020.86 56.54%
Thursday October 29th 6 31 4.43 866 5,861 845.00 -17.77% 837.29 -27.57% 996.64 41.04%
Friday October 30th 6 30 4.29 772 5,856 794.40 -18.84% 836.57 -25.58% 980.36 31.68%
Saturday October 31st 5 31 4.43 416 5,413 689.80 -26.08% 773.29 -27.36% 918.93 16.05%
Sunday November 1st 2 33 4.71 552 4,940 656.20 -24.05% 705.71 -31.33% 866.71 1.07%
Monday November 2nd 2 32 4.57 767 4,768 674.60 -20.03% 681.14 -32.86% 847.86 -5.18%
Tuesday November 3rd 5 32 4.57 322 4,370 565.80 -33.04% 624.29 -33.31% 780.21 -18.21%
Wednesday November 4th 8 34 4.86 444 4,139 500.20 -37.03% 591.29 -31.71% 728.57 -26.68%
Thursday November 5th 3 31 4.43 591 3,864 535.20 -22.41% 552.00 -34.07% 694.64 -32.80%
Friday November 6th 8 33 4.71 499 3,591 524.60 -20.05% 513.00 -38.68% 674.79 -35.43%
Saturday November 7th 5 33 4.71 355 3,530 442.20 -34.45% 504.29 -34.79% 638.79 -38.23%
Sunday November 8th 2 33 4.71 542 3,520 486.20 -14.07% 502.86 -28.74% 604.29 -42.41%
Monday November 9th 1 32 4.57 270 3,023 451.40 -9.76% 431.86 -36.60% 556.50 -47.37%
Tuesday November 10th 16 43 6.14 270 2,971 387.20 -27.65% 424.43 -32.01% 524.36 -50.10%
Wednesday November 11th 2 37 5.29 362 2,889 359.80 -31.41% 412.71 -30.20% 502.00 -50.83%
Thursday November 12th 1 35 5.00 395 2,693 367.80 -16.82% 384.71 -30.31% 468.36 -53.01%
Friday November 13th 7 34 4.86 482 2,676 355.80 -26.82% 382.29 -25.48% 447.64 -54.34%
Saturday November 14th 6 35 5.00 456 2,777 393.00 -12.94% 396.71 -21.33% 450.50 -50.98%
Sunday November 15th 1 34 4.86 378 2,613 414.60 7.08% 373.29 -25.77% 438.07 -49.46%
Monday November 16th 5 38 5.43 456 2,799 433.40 20.46% 399.86 -7.41% 415.86 -50.95%
Tuesday November 17th 11 33 4.71 366 2,895 427.60 16.26% 413.57 -2.56% 419.00 -46.30%
Wednesday November 18th 12 43 6.14 379 2,912 407.00 14.39% 416.00 0.80% 414.36 -43.13%
Thursday November 19th 4 46 6.57 429 2,946 401.60 2.19% 420.86 9.39% 402.79 -42.02%
Friday November 20th 8 47 6.71 330 2,794 392.00 -5.45% 399.14 4.41% 390.71 -42.10%
Saturday November 21st 4 45 6.43 344 2,682 369.60 -14.72% 383.14 -3.42% 389.93 -38.96%
Sunday November 22nd 1 45 6.43 318 2,622 360.00 -15.81% 374.57 0.34% 373.93 -38.12%
Monday November 23rd 0 40 5.71 252 2,418 334.60 -17.79% 345.43 -13.61% 372.64 -33.04%
Tuesday November 24th 6 35 5.00 226 2,278 294.00 -26.79% 325.43 -21.31% 369.50 -29.53%
Wednesday November 25th 6 29 4.14 269 2,168 281.80 -28.11% 309.71 -25.55% 362.86 -27.72%
Thursday November 26th 3 28 4.00 335 2,074 280.00 -24.24% 296.29 -29.60% 358.57 -23.44%

crossman47 · 26-11-2020 8:49pm

Duke of Url wrote: »

With the exception of healthcare workers and care homes, I would simply like to know how the f**k 100s of people are catching COVID-19 on a daily basis.

Face-masks, hand sanitizer and social distancing. Are people really having difficulty with the basics?

Yes they are. There are many, many people with no concept of social distancing happily meeting others in their house (and I don't mean parties, just social calls).

jobeenfitz · 26-11-2020 8:50pm

The HSE are a shambles. They have been for decades, from memory. They have overpaid consultants, middle and top management. They know we have less capacity that most Euro members.

They are covering their holes by laying the blame on the people. Overpaid cowards.

They have being dragging sick people through courts for ever. People who are telling the truth.

NPHET are the HSE. Tony is one of these cowards!

Im not surprised.

I can't see the government agreeing with their recommendations. If I'm wrong and they do the people won't take this crap, the majority IMO.

almostover · 26-11-2020 8:55pm

The biggest failure of the government's living with COVID plan is that it isnt reflective of human nature. People will not comply with an expectation where they must have no social interactions outside of their household, it's just not feasible over an extended period of time. We would get much more buy in if each of the 5 levels was associated with a number of cases per 100k and an R number of a certain value. Human nature loves targets and achieving them. There would be far more public buy in and adherence to the guidelines if people knew that getting cases number down would result in the reward of more businesses open and greater opportunity for social interactions. That for me has been the single biggest failure of government policy in relation to COVID, it's all stick and no carrot!

Ficheall · 26-11-2020 8:57pm

almostover wrote: »

The biggest failure of the government's living with COVID plan is that it isnt reflective of human nature. People will not comply with an expectation where they must have no social interactions outside of their household, it's just not feasible over an extended period of time. We would get much more buy in if each of the 5 levels was associated with a number of cases per 100k and an R number of a certain value. Human nature loves targets and achieving them. There would be far more public buy in and adherence to the guidelines if people knew that getting cases number down would result in the reward of more businesses open and greater opportunity for social interactions. That for me has been the single biggest failure of government policy in relation to COVID, it's all stick and no carrot!

Agreed, in general, but can you imagine the accusations of number-manipulation that would bring?

Fr_Dougal · 26-11-2020 8:59pm

We all need to go out into our front gardens and sing Ireland’s Call.

Ireland, Ireland Together standing tall
Shoulder to shoulder
We'll answer Ireland's call

mandrake04 · 26-11-2020 9:06pm

Open the Pubs wrote: »

I'd say NPHET saved and tacked on a couple hundred extra cases just for today. It's a running theme with them, usually do it whenever restrictions are to be lifted.

Why would they do that? How could they or society benefit from that? The only theme is conspiracy theories because people can’t accept what’s going on around the world.

CalamariFritti · 26-11-2020 9:07pm

pjohnson wrote: »

Well you've fellas on here claiming cases are being purposefully held back to further the lockdown
Jog along.

Tbh whether they're massaging those numbers or not is immaterial as those numbers are rubbish to begin with.

The only yardstick that isn't totally flawed are hospitalisations and deaths. And both of those would have to be strictly "from" and not "with".

The only thing we're actually excelling at is collecting useless case numbers and fogging up the only real hard numbers we could have in order to send 'the right message'.

Its so bad and its so persistently bad that I can hardly blame people for jumping on the CT bandwagon any more.

caveat emptor · 26-11-2020 9:10pm

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Your taking me up the wrong way here.

It was billed as 6 weeks, numbers came down, relax a little for a few weeks and most accept another short time period will be required for higher restrictions, I feel its inevitable either way really.

But after 6 weeks you expect a little something to be given back and what NPHET want is crumbs realistically.

If your not seen to give a little back you'll have rules broken anyway, no inter county travel to start with.

Give a little for a few weeks you get more co operation back in return in January.

You weren't saying anything beyond the pale and were more reasonable than most hence my reply to you. I see what you are saying. That's fair enough.

Yeah It would be great if after the six weeks we had lower numbers. I guess the point I see is if we open up like august or whatever the numbers will increase at 4-5% per day and won't be long until we are back in lockdown. I think it's different than summer and we can't get the numbers down to those levels given human behaviour in the winter and the impact of cold / dry environments on the spread.

Very hard either way. Everyone fed up. Blaming NEPHET for a recommendation is like blaming a doctor for telling you to give up smoking after a stroke. You can do it but it is unlikely to help your situation or outcome. It's as if some people hope that if we get rid of NPHET we'll be grand. No other country has NEPHET and they are not grand so I can't see any use in pummelling people who are just doing their job. Again I'm not saying you are saying this but it is the general tone on here of late.

ACitizenErased · 26-11-2020 9:11pm

pjohnson wrote: »

Ah maybe you missed the explanation as to how 1000 cases is a possibility.

You had your theory which is a bit hazy and certainly lacking any data or numbers.......but hey you do you.

But heres the mathematical explanation. You used to post some modified stats day by day so surely you could follow the below post helpfully explaining how its possible?

Havent heard thousands for a few months but how it can reach a thousand is broken down by Benimar.

There's zero formula given there, but whatever floats your boat, you do you.

DulchieLaois · 26-11-2020 9:12pm

We had 6 weeks lockdown and yet cases are still high....obviously lockdown is not working

KrustyUCC · 26-11-2020 9:14pm

DulchieLaois wrote: »

We had 6 weeks lockdown and yet cases are still high....obviously lockdown is not working

so whats the solution then?

Even more harder lockdown?

froog · 26-11-2020 9:15pm

this thing starts ending in january when the at risk start getting vaccinated. that is actually going to happen. can people seriously not wait a few more months of no pints and keeping contacts to a minimum?

what a shame for covid to end with a bang instead of a whimper.

Hulk Hands · 26-11-2020 9:16pm

eagle eye wrote: »

No, the loudmouth alcoholics and spoilt little children in the bodies of adults are shouting loud but there many more than them that just want to be safe and not lose a loved one to this virus. Most people I'm talking to are planning to stay at home for Christmas. My sister is one of those spoilt little children in an adults body, she's going to my parents house regularly with her children from crèche and school.
The rest of my family intend to go to the house on Christmas day but stay outside and chat to my parents, myself included.

Funny how you took out the second part of my post, which specifically says it's the average previously pro-lockdown person who seems to be angry tonight

Stop wishing your sad little idea of a Christmas on other people

eagle eye · 26-11-2020 9:16pm

BeefeaterHat wrote:

I'm sure Tony will visit you on Christmas to tell you you're the best boy in the class and give you a gold star.

Deleted User wrote:

Did I miss your reply to my response?

Yes I put it up.

Plumbthedepths · 26-11-2020 9:17pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Thanks to the national mitigation measures.

We need to keep up the good work though and redouble the efforts.

Redouble the efforts of level 5 would be level 10?. How will that work? Shoot everyone , no host for the virus, prehaps?
Surely some people are laughing as they hit send on the drivel they write.

Arghus · 26-11-2020 9:18pm

ACitizenErased wrote: »

1000 per day by Christmas eve I swear some on here wear NPHET t-shirts. It’s alright lads, ye can disagree with Tony, he won’t hurt ya.

Let's hope this one doesn't age badly.

26-11-2020 9:19pm

froog wrote: »

this thing starts ending in january when the at risk start getting vaccinated. that is actually going to happen. can people seriously not wait a few more months of no pints and keeping contacts to a minimum?

what a shame for covid to end with a bang instead of a whimper.

It's also arguable you are better off beginning a vaccination program when cases are low. Otherwise you might end up wasting a significant number of doses.

BeefeaterHat · 26-11-2020 9:19pm

froog wrote: »

this thing starts ending in january when the at risk start getting vaccinated. that is actually going to happen. can people seriously not wait a few more months of no pints and keeping contacts to a minimum?

what a shame for covid to end with a bang instead of a whimper.

I'd be very dubious of this ending in a couple of months. NPHET will find any old excuse to drag the arse out if this

WoollyRedHat · 26-11-2020 9:19pm

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There's zero formula given there, but whatever floats your boat, you do you.

What is your opinion on the fact cases went to a thousand at a lower threshold than we are at now, back in September? The formula is there, more people, mixing of people in riskier environments equals an increase of cases after incubation periods, the data is there if you look at it, both at a national and European level

Plumbthedepths · 26-11-2020 9:22pm

froog wrote: »

this thing starts ending in january when the at risk start getting vaccinated. that is actually going to happen. can people seriously not wait a few more months of no pints and keeping contacts to a minimum?

what a shame for covid to end with a bang instead of a whimper.

You seriously think the fatigue with restrictions is due to the desire of a pint? You may not realise it but alcohol has been available throughout. Your condescending comment serves no purpose other than to incite a reaction off others, perhaps that's the purpose.

froog · 26-11-2020 9:22pm

BeefeaterHat wrote: »

I'd be very dubious of this ending in a couple of months. NPHET will find any old excuse to drag the arse out if this

whats the current theory from you lot - NPHET want a permanent lockdown until the end of time and to abolish pubs as well as building their media profiles for who knows what. and something about the world economic forum illuminati for good measure.

is that about right?

eagle eye · 26-11-2020 9:23pm

ACitizenErased wrote:

There's zero formula given there, but whatever floats your boat, you do you.

Show us your formula and your projections for Christmas

BeefeaterHat · 26-11-2020 9:24pm

froog wrote: »

whats the current theory from you lot - NPHET want a permanent lockdown until the end of time and to abolish pubs as well as building their media profiles for who knows what. and something about the world economic forum illuminati for good measure.

is that about right?

Never said that, you can go through my post history to see for yourself but I admire your skill with building strawmen.

26-11-2020 9:24pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Show us your formula and your projections for Christmas

everything = grand

KrustyUCC · 26-11-2020 9:25pm

Nphet also told Government it should reconsider easing rules near Christmas on household visits if it decides to allow restaurants and gastro pubs.

Nphet said household visit restrictions could be lifted between December 21 and January 2 if restaurants remained closed.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/restaurants-and-pubs-should-only-be-allowed-to-offer-takeaway-over-christmas-nphet-says-39796129.html

That's the either or NPHET presented to government

Bit strange wanting to increase restrictions on a Saturday

Monday to Monday would be more natural

Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

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