Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

caveat emptor · 24-10-2020 11:14AM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Nobody knows what the reproductive value is. We can only estimate it using a variety of different statistical models, using the latest available data.

The 777 number while nice looks a bit like an outlier. We'll know if a few days I guess. The problem with looking just at the R value is that one returning couple from a weekend away (which they are perfectly entitled to take) can blow up your R number in one weekend. Restrictions at level 5 help reduce the probability of these events but it remains to be seen.

You can see in the LEA data that a local area can get bad very quickly. My intuition is that schools being open will offset any effect of adults restricting movements etc. Hope I'm wrong. Probably resulting in steady state.
I'd expect a dip due to midterm.

Fr_Dougal · 24-10-2020 11:14AM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

The reproductive rate has dropped to 1, and the schools are open.

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Nobody knows what the reproductive value is. We can only estimate it using a variety of different statistical models, using the latest available data.

Will you just give up. Christ.

MerlinSouthDub · 24-10-2020 11:15AM

6 wrote: »

Surely someone knows.

What model do they use? It's hardly top secret I'd imagine!

They use 5 different models, all the information is published. But my point is that they are models, they are only estimates. The reproductive rate will vary depending on the part of population infected, humidity, temperature, number of contacts etc. All we can ever do is estimate it, it will change over time for lots of reasons.

niallo27 · 24-10-2020 11:18AM

I actually genuinely think there will be people disappointed in here if the cases are not back over 1k today.

Blondini · 24-10-2020 11:19AM

niallo27 wrote: »

I actually genuinely think there will be people disappointed in here of the cases are not back over 1k today.

Don't be so stupid.

MerlinSouthDub · 24-10-2020 11:20AM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Will you just give up. Christ.

I apologise for saying the rate had dropped to 1 when I meant the latest estimate of the rate had dropped to 1.

Paddygreen · 24-10-2020 11:21AM

The Gardaí have discovered a shebeen down in Clare. Taps, kegs, a pool table, a dart board, beer mats, Beer, a moonlighting barman trying to get out a bathroom window. What absolute vermin. Setting up a drinking den where the only thing you are guaranteed to be served with your libation is death wearing the grim cloak of covid19. When will people realize they fun + Covid19 = agonising Death. The science is settled.

cnocbui · 24-10-2020 11:23AM

suicide_circus wrote: »

I think the majority of people on here questioning the rolling lockdown model are still largely complying with the restrictions as it's the only show in town really.

It's not the only game in town.

Is this the alternative to lockdowns? Poland tells over-70s and the vulnerable to stay at home and will deliver food to their homes as Europe sees cases double to 200,000 in ten days

Sweden aren't panicking the way we are.

Boggles · 24-10-2020 11:24AM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I apologise for saying the rate had dropped to 1 when I meant the latest estimate of the rate had dropped to 1.

You mean your latest estimate which is based on primarily a fundamental lack of understanding of how the reproductive number is actually calculated.

niallo27 · 24-10-2020 11:24AM

Blondini wrote: »

Don't be so stupid.

People love saying I told you so, don't be so naive.

prunudo · 24-10-2020 11:24AM

niallo27 wrote: »

I actually genuinely think there will be people disappointed in here if the cases are not back over 1k today.

Tbh, given the swab numbers yesterday I'd be surprised if they're under 1k today. Not that i don't want them to be, just don't think we'll see true a reduction so quickly. Minimum a week before we see any meaningful trend.

niallo27 · 24-10-2020 11:25AM

Paddygreen wrote: »

The Gardaí have discovered a shebeen down in Clare. Taps, kegs, a pool table, a dart board, beer mats, Beer, a moonlighting barman trying to get out a bathroom window. What absolute vermin. Setting up a drinking den where the only thing you are guaranteed to be served with your libation is death wearing the grim cloak of covid19. When will people realize they fun + Covid19 = agonising Death. The science is settled.

Any address for this place so I can make sure its closed.

cnocbui · 24-10-2020 11:26AM

Paddygreen wrote: »

The Gardaí have discovered a shebeen down in Clare. Taps, kegs, a pool table, a dart board, beer mats, Beer, a moonlighting barman trying to get out a bathroom window. What absolute vermin. Setting up a drinking den where the only thing you are guaranteed to be served with your libation is death wearing the grim cloak of covid19. When will people realize they fun + Covid19 = agonising Death. The science is settled.

Dying from a 'whoops, to late, sorry' cancer diagnosis is an even more agonising death.

Blondini · 24-10-2020 11:27AM

Paddygreen wrote: »

The Gardaí have discovered a shebeen down in Clare. Taps, kegs, a pool table, a dart board, beer mats, Beer, a moonlighting barman trying to get out a bathroom window. What absolute vermin. Setting up a drinking den where the only thing you are guaranteed to be served with your libation is death wearing the grim cloak of covid19. When will people realize they fun + Covid19 = agonising Death. The science is settled.

Packed up to the rotten decaying rafters with boozed up bog monkeys line dancing to the Saw Doctors.

froog · 24-10-2020 11:28AM

niallo27 wrote: »

People love saying I told you so, don't be so naive.

Or maybe people repeatedly being told "it's grand" using all kinds of lies and incorrect assumptions for the last few months has led to a lot of the complacency that has us in the middle of a lockdown tight now.

maebee · 24-10-2020 11:29AM

Paddygreen wrote: »

The Gardaí have discovered a shebeen down in Clare. Taps, kegs, a pool table, a dart board, beer mats, Beer, a moonlighting barman trying to get out a bathroom window. What absolute vermin. Setting up a drinking den where the only thing you are guaranteed to be served with your libation is death wearing the grim cloak of covid19. When will people realize they fun + Covid19 = agonising Death. The science is settled.

It's in Athy, Co. Kildare

caveat emptor · 24-10-2020 11:29AM

Paddygreen wrote: »

The Gardaí have discovered a shebeen down in Clare. Taps, kegs, a pool table, a dart board, beer mats, Beer, a moonlighting barman trying to get out a bathroom window. What absolute vermin. Setting up a drinking den where the only thing you are guaranteed to be served with your libation is death wearing the grim cloak of covid19. When will people realize they fun + Covid19 = agonising Death. The science is settled.

Looks fairly civilised to me? Why the moral outrage paddy. I don't see people getting so wound up about similar illicit activities like craic dens or bordellos. Main thing is we don't all do it.

Beanybabog · 24-10-2020 11:31AM

kwestfan08 wrote: »

Me either tbh. Like if you get your positive test do you just throw your phone out the window? I'd like to think if I had it I'd ring or text people I was in contact with over the previous couple of days and give them the heads up.

My OH tested positive and now a relative has. One gave it to the other, no idea who had it first, but based on the 48 contract tracing the relative wouldn’t have been tested and thought they had a cold. But because contact tracing had fallen apart we took liberties and got them to get a test

cnocbui · 24-10-2020 11:33AM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Will you just give up. Christ.

Will someone please start a thread for people like you where the only type of post tollerated is one in support of the official Oirish pan(dem)ic response.

If you want a high five, bro, echo chamber of like minnds, have at it.

24-10-2020 11:35AM

For balance here is the Germany situation today:
R=rate 1.23
6000 infected in Hospital of which 1000 are in intensive care
8000 intensive beds are free so no panic.

Plenty of free beds means no hysteria.
People are still eating out, going to the gym, shopping, etc.
There are just reasonable restrictions like masks in shops, public transport and pedestrianized zones.

Paddygreen · 24-10-2020 11:36AM

niallo27 wrote: »

Any address for this place so I can make sure its closed.

No idea, but I think if we do find out where a shebeen is for sure a few concerned posters such as myself and maybe yourself should mask up, rent a minibus and go down to wherever it is to remind them about the guidelines. We could stop in Aldi or somewhere enroute to get some refreshments. I’m fairly sure that educating others about the dangers of Covid19 would cover us for making the essential journey.

24-10-2020 11:37AM

Yay. Further staff self isolating. Relying on bank nursing here. We are running out of single rooms to keep the covid patients in as well.

mean gene · 24-10-2020 11:40AM

Blondini wrote: »

Packed up to the rotten decaying rafters with boozed up bog monkeys line dancing to the Saw Doctors.

your point still relevant now its Kildare not Clare?

maebee · 24-10-2020 11:41AM

Paddygreen wrote: »

No idea, but I think if we do find out where a shebeen is for sure a few concerned posters such as myself and maybe yourself should mask up, rent a minibus and go down to wherever it is to remind them about the guidelines. We could stop in Aldi or somewhere enroute to get some refreshments. I’m fairly sure that educating others about the dangers of Covid19 would cover us for making the essential journey.

https://www.newstalk.com/news/gardai-raid-suspected-shebeen-pub-co-kildare-1095624

zinfandel · 24-10-2020 11:44AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Yay. Further staff self isolating. Relying on bank nursing here. We are running out of single rooms to keep the covid patients in as well.

would it not be better having all the covid patients together and keeping the single rooms for non covid?

mloc123 · 24-10-2020 11:45AM

Blondini wrote: »

Keeping out my personal fcucking space in a deli queue qualifies as "harsh restrictions" ?

Thought it was just good solid civilised human behaviour myself.

Ignoring covid... in general, why do people insist on invading your personal space in a queue? It is almost like they think standing on your heels will speed up the process.

mloc123 · 24-10-2020 11:46AM

mean gene wrote: »

your point still relevant now its Kildare not Clare?

Its Athy.. if anything, that is more accurate :pac::pac:

normanoffside · 24-10-2020 11:49AM

Paddygreen wrote: »

The Gardaí have discovered a shebeen down in Clare. Taps, kegs, a pool table, a dart board, beer mats, Beer, a moonlighting barman trying to get out a bathroom window. What absolute vermin. Setting up a drinking den where the only thing you are guaranteed to be served with your libation is death wearing the grim cloak of covid19. When will people realize they fun + Covid19 = agonising Death. The science is settled.

It was in Athy Co Kildare Paddy

caveat emptor · 24-10-2020 11:51AM

prunudo wrote: »

Tbh, given the swab numbers yesterday I'd be surprised if they're under 1k today. Not that i don't want them to be, just don't think we'll see true a reduction so quickly. Minimum a week before we see any meaningful trend.

Yeah 777 was the biggest divergence with the trend in last 100 days. Hopefully it is the start of a prolonged decrease but we'll have to wait and see. Certainly looks like an outlier.

US2 · 24-10-2020 11:51AM

Any reason why yesterday's numbers were so low, is level 3 kicking in or what. How many positive swabs yesterday

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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