Relaxation of restrictions Part II

FintanMcluskey · 03-05-2020 06:52PM

kippy wrote: »

I don't live in Sweden, amn't Swedish and don't know enough outside of their death rates to have a well formed opinion on Sweden.

Do you disagree with my maths?

I don't disagree that your basing maths on inherently flawed models.
Using your theory, double those numbers and compare them to Sweden using a quick google search.

Ginger n Lemon · 03-05-2020 06:53PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Were you there on the essential business of photoing them ?

You know he wasnt :P I am concerned that our population is slowly turning into stalkers and creeps. At this rate, we ll be more afraid of stepping outside because Bobs and Dicks and Harrys will be there waiting to take picture of us rather than covid19.

Bruthal · 03-05-2020 07:03PM

robinph wrote: »

Other than certain tasks there is a lot of things which can be done without people needing to be in close proximity to each other though. New ways of doing those tasks need to be figured out, or accept the risks, and the rest of us have to accept that building work will take longer than before as all the other tasks that can be done solo are going to take longer as you can only have one or two people in a room at a time.

Accept the risks will be the reality, while being told "zero risk, injury free" endlessly.
In reality, construction companies know that if a person picks up covid 19 and then goes home and kills others, they cant prove it was on the site they got it, and that is all that is cared about on sites now, the blame game.
They endlessly put out this "zero risk zero injury policy". But they dont mind this risk because it cant be proven the person picked up the virus on the site, even though there is clearly a much higher risk of it than if not on a site.

So, site work will continue as normal, with maybe reduced actual numbers by having shifts. But 2 meter distancing the whole time, fantasy stuff.

Or we stop building stuff because it's too complicated.

No, they just take the risk and broadcast that it is minimal risk.

There isn't going to be much call for new office buildings for a good few years anyway so no rush there, upgrading fibre links to people's houses is where the work is going to be now.

Most of the big construction jobs are in data centre, pharma, or chip manufacturing. There was going to be a shortage of skilled people just from those alone, I dont think that will change, nor will construction methods.

03-05-2020 07:11PM

I chose to quite strictly lockdown myself in March and most of April. I’ve finished lockdown now, but I’ll continue to stay inside the rules.

Instead of getting deliveries, I now go the shops myself. I’m happy to be out and about within a few KM of the house. Instead of ordering shopping online for my elderly father in law, I’ll go the shop and then drive down with the groceries. We’ll have a chat in the driveway for a good while. Then I might also drop some bits down to my own parents.

I was more careful before but I’m not breaking any rules.

There is no vaccine. It’s not going to be any safer in August. Government are just delaying because they don’t know what to do.

Bob24 · 03-05-2020 07:14PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Bob, they tried. But Garda closed Pheonix park.

Garda will shut down any form of public gatherings, there were 6 girls protesting against Debenhams on Henry street, easily 3 meters apart from each other, still told to get the hell out by our law enforcement.

Actually the park was closed with no-one left in it when I was walking back 15 minutes later - I suspect this is what happened as there were a few Garda cars around.

That is a shame: it could have remained open for people living in the local area and going their for a walk or a run, but because many don't feel the rules apply to them, it ended-up being closed even to those who would have followed them.

kippy · 03-05-2020 07:14PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I disagree with your maths. They've already proved New York's death rate of 0.12%. Slightly higher of flu.

Unfortunate Kippy people will die. Whether off flu or car crash or cancer or tuberculosis. Telling 99.8% of population to try to stay at home, miss out on vitamin D or actual social interaction, create 25% unemployment (10% permanent unemployment into next 3 years) and put 100 + businesses into bankruptcy is not the way to go.

How many of that 99.8 percent of the population will require hospitalisation and at what rate?
Let's look at your example of car crashes. People obviously die in car crashes. Thankfully it is not a contagious disease. But ignoring that for a minute do you think that more or less people would/do die in car crashes because of the various rules/restrictions and advances in technology than if we allowed people drive what they wanted, how they wanted with no legal or risk mitigation attached to it?

Edit, I'll take a look at the US number you provided later and respond.

kippy · 03-05-2020 07:14PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I don't disagree that your basing maths on inherently flawed models.
Using your theory, double those numbers and compare them to Sweden using a quick google search.

I'll have a look at the Swedish data when I get a chance later

Gynoid · 03-05-2020 07:16PM

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Why don't you go and gawk out the curtains to make sure no one's outside like a good lad.

Why don't you keep within the rules of posting on boards, there's a good lassie.

Ginger n Lemon · 03-05-2020 07:17PM

Bob24 wrote: »

Actually the park was closed with no-one left in it when I was walking back 15 minutes later - I suspect this is what happened as there were a few Garda cars around.

That is a shame: it could have remained open for people living in the local area and going their for a walk or a run, but because many don't feel the rules apply to them, it ended-up being closed even to those who would have followed them.

Oh no, i was referring to a protest gathering at 2 pm in Pheonix park yesterday. Garda closed Phenonix park. You know, probably renovating.

normanoffside · 03-05-2020 07:23PM

Bob24 wrote: »

They clearly aren't further than 2 meters from each other on the picture of the street. They kind of are in the park, but which of the allowed reason to leave home would you say they fall into? (I'd say none)

For what reasons are you allowed to leave home?

kippy · 03-05-2020 07:23PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I disagree with your maths. They've already proved New York's death rate of 0.12%. Slightly higher of flu.

Unfortunate Kippy people will die. Whether off flu or car crash or cancer or tuberculosis. Telling 99.8% of population to try to stay at home, miss out on vitamin D or actual social interaction, create 25% unemployment (10% permanent unemployment into next 3 years) and put 100 + businesses into bankruptcy is not the way to go.

Just so we are using the same baseline.can you link to where you get that figure from.

RobbingBandit · 03-05-2020 07:25PM

Noticing several house parties in my area in Finglas Friday Saturday and today very loud one last night music playing well into am hours crazy big Garda station in the village but no response to these parties.

LiquidZeb · 03-05-2020 07:26PM

Gynoid wrote: »

Why don't you keep within the rules of posting on boards, there's a good lassie.

Why don't you look outside at all the happy people enjoying the weather and take a leaf from their book like a good boy.

Bob24 · 03-05-2020 07:28PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Were you there on the essential business of photoing them ?

If you read my posts again, you will see I was doing my first walk in a while, within 2km of home as per the rules and that I didn't even enter the park (I just took a quick snap while waiting to cross the street).

I mean I get people are frustrated, but it is very clear that the current health policies don't accommodate for hundreds of people to lie in the park (and as a matter of fact many countries have closed parks).

I can see a few rather aggressive answers to my posts form people who obviously don't like those policies and are trying to make it personal. I think they should rather discuss the policies and why they don't like them.

normanoffside · 03-05-2020 07:28PM

Bob24 wrote: »

No need. I was taking a walk within 2km of my home without anyone closer than 2 metres from me (I wasn't in the park, just taking a zoomed picture from the street). Not lying in the park with a big crowd.

Peeping Bob

normanoffside · 03-05-2020 07:29PM

Bob24 wrote: »

If you read my posts again, you will see I was doing my first walk in a while, within 2km of home as per the rules and that I didn't even enter the park (I just took a quick snap while waiting to cross the street).

How are you going to cope when the rule changes to 5k on Tuesday?

people from all over will be coming to sunbathe in your park and it will be very hard for you to police.

Ginger n Lemon · 03-05-2020 07:30PM

kippy wrote: »

Just so we are using the same baseline.can you link to where you get that figure from.

I cant provide hyperlinks unfortunately as i am a new user. But you can google Irish times article from 24th of April "one in five New Yorkers may have had covid19", in there you can read the following

In New York City, about 21 per cent tested positive for coronavirus antibodies during the state survey. The rate was about 17 per cent on Long Island, nearly 12 per cent in Westchester

21% of New York city is 1.8m, deaths at 24th of April were under 10k. So at 24th of April, covid19 death rate in new york city was less than 0.6%. Deaths there now are higher I appreciate, but then 21% is probably 30% or even 35%. New york city has 8.4m people.

stephenjmcd · 03-05-2020 07:31PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Oh no, i was referring to a protest gathering at 2 pm in Pheonix park yesterday. Garda closed Phenonix park. You know, probably renovating.

They closed it yesterday because a few head bangers tried to have a protest

yosemitesam1 · 03-05-2020 07:32PM

kippy wrote: »

How many of that 99.8 percent of the population will require hospitalisation and at what rate?
Let's look at your example of car crashes. People obviously die in car crashes. Thankfully it is not a contagious disease. But ignoring that for a minute do you think that more or less people would/do die in car crashes because of the various rules/restrictions and advances in technology than if we allowed people drive what they wanted, how they wanted with no legal or risk mitigation attached to it?

Edit, I'll take a look at the US number you provided later and respond.

The real hospitalisation rate is under 1.5%, flu is circa 1% for comparison

FintanMcluskey · 03-05-2020 07:33PM

RobbingBandit wrote: »

Noticing several house parties in my area in Finglas Friday Saturday and today very loud one last night music playing well into am hours crazy big Garda station in the village but no response to these parties.

If the parties are in a "home" is that not protected under law, as in without a warrant the gardai cant enter?

Penfailed · 03-05-2020 07:33PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Government are just delaying because they don’t know what to do.

They're delaying to avoid ICUs becoming overrun, not because they don't know what to do.

snotboogie · 03-05-2020 07:34PM

Anyone hear Newstalk this morning with the HSE executive? She made it clear that there is no timeline to end social distancing and that we will have to get used to a new normal. Annoyingly the host was intent on putting hand washing and social distancing in the same bracket "I guess we'll just all have to get used to washing hands and social distancing" as if they are one in the same. Hand washing is a minor inconvenience which has almost no downside, social distancing will force us to reconsider everything about our society and economy.

I've said it over and over and over but people are not grasping the drastic implications of long term social distancing. The restrictions being lifted are a sideshow, a non event for most people. The real question is when we won't need to be 2 metres away from anyone not in our household. Society cannot function anything like it did before with social distancing in place.

Ginger n Lemon · 03-05-2020 07:35PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

They closed it yesterday because a few head bangers tried to have a protest

Yes. Bob wanted people who dont agree with lockdown to voice their opinion rather than sit close to each other in the park. They couldnt. So Bob went to the park and started to take photos of families sitting close to each other.

Jesus. Would you have believed this is where we would be in terms of society this time 12 months ago? Garda breaking up protests, people taking photos of other people in the park.. whats next, Leo making announcements to the country without taking questions from journalists over his measures imposed?

FintanMcluskey · 03-05-2020 07:36PM

kippy wrote: »

I'll have a look at the Swedish data when I get a chance later

Do if you have time.
Essentially Sweden should now be seeing death rates of about 250k with doctors having to make decisions on who to save and let die. Triage seen in the trenches of WW1.

Ginger n Lemon · 03-05-2020 07:39PM

snotboogie wrote: »

Any hear Newstalk this morning with the HSE executive? She made it clear that there is no timeline to end social distancing and that we will have to get used to a new normal. Annoyingly the host was intent on putting hand washing and social distancing in the same bracket "I guess we'll just all have to get used to washing hands and social distancing" as if they are one in the same. Hand washing is a minor inconvenience which has almost no downside, social distancing will force us to reconsider everything about our society and economy.

I've said it over and over and over but people are not grasping the drastic implications of long term social distancing. The restrictions being lifted are a sideshow, a non event for most people. The real question is when we won't need to be 2 metres away from anyone not in our household. Society cannot function anything like it did before with social distancing in place.

You are correct. Society can't function with social distancing. Most amazing thing is, there are 10+ scientific papers peer reviewed and published out there that state that washing hands kills bacteria and is a good thing to do.

Do you know how many scientific published peer reviewed papers there are of effectiveness of preventing disease spread because of people walking 2 meters apart from each? I got bad news.

the kelt · 03-05-2020 07:39PM

That park picture again reiterates the stupidness of the 2k, 5k etc etc restriction and that blanket instruction for the entire country.

I could head off from my house and jog 2k, 5k or even 10k from my house this evening and not come even close to meeting another human being.

But put me in the middle of Dublin and that park and I quite possibly will meet or be in the vicinity of roughly the same amount of people living in my local town.

What’s sadder is there’s posters on here who would report me if they saw me out for that jog and declare me a pariah on society putting lives at risk.

Tenzor07 · 03-05-2020 07:39PM

Well, keep up the social distancing but this economy crushing lockdown is a waste of time and will cripple this state for the remainder of the 2020's!!

An immunologist has warned that keeping Ireland under lockdown is having only a modest impact in the fight against Covid-19.

Paul Moynagh, professor of immunology at Maynooth University, points to two studies that raise serious questions about the value of keeping Ireland behind closed doors.

In the first study, data across 24 countries, including Sweden, the Netherlands and Ireland, shows that the virus is following the same downward path - regardless of whether a country is in full lockdown, which suggests that social distancing is the key to suppressing the virus - not more extreme measures.

Ginger n Lemon · 03-05-2020 07:42PM

Penfailed wrote: »

They're delaying to avoid ICUs becoming overrun, not because they don't know what to do.

Get more ICUs? How many months government has had now to increase capacity? This is insane, we have 100 ICU beds, as a county of 5 million population we can't re open in case that capacity is reached/overwhelmed. Are we in lockdown forever then? Because I dont really see why ICUs wont be overrun in October... do you?

the kelt · 03-05-2020 07:42PM

Penfailed wrote: »

They're delaying to avoid ICUs becoming overrun, not because they don't know what to do.

Or they’re delaying to finally get the testing up to speed like they’ve been saying for weeks they were doing which coincidentally will now be up to speed within that extra 2 weeks.

Apparently

FintanMcluskey · 03-05-2020 07:44PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

whats next, Leo making announcements to the country without taking questions from journalists over his measures imposed?

That not going to happen, that would be as foolish as to suggest that
-The CMO would respond to a direct question about whats required regarding numbers with "as low as possible".
-The health minister with no idea what the 19 means in Covid 19
-The NPHET would refuse to publish the minutes of and refusing journalist access to the meetings with the CMO claiming they are "busy"

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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