Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring/Summer 2018

highdef · 28-05-2018 2:19pm

Couple of cells have flared up between Brighton and Portsmouth and more interestingly, another North of Swansea.

DOCARCH · 28-05-2018 2:23pm

highdef wrote: »

Couple of cells have flared up between Brighton and Portsmouth and more interestingly, another North of Swansea.

Noticed those....was just keeping an eye on the lightning detectors for the Welsh one.

pad199207 · 28-05-2018 2:30pm

highdef wrote: »

Couple of cells have flared up between Brighton and Portsmouth and more interestingly, another North of Swansea.

Those cells are forming on Sea Breeze Convergence.

28-05-2018 2:31pm

https://en.sat24.com/en

28-05-2018 2:33pm

A slight possibility of something tonight but only slight I'd say. Similar track as the other night.

highdef · 28-05-2018 2:39pm

Another cell near holyhead

28-05-2018 3:39pm

Look over the North of France, It would be nice if that made it's way over, it's certainly heading in the right direction.

highdef · 28-05-2018 3:42pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Look over the North of France, It would be nice if that made it's way over, it's certainly heading in the right direction.

Just saw that now. Would be very very nice indeed

pad199207 · 28-05-2018 3:53pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Look over the North of France, It would be nice if that made it's way over, it's certainly heading in the right direction.

Those French cells are heading West into Biscay

28-05-2018 5:52pm

highdef wrote: »

Just saw that now. Would be very very nice indeed

Sadly, now it looks like it's getting weaker as it heads for the sea.

highdef · 28-05-2018 6:31pm

Looking at satellite, it appears that there are a good few showers starting to build now, especially in Munster, as was the prediction anyway.

Meteorite58 · 28-05-2018 6:32pm

Latest ECM, not showing huge rainfall, very localized.

pad199207 · 28-05-2018 6:43pm

Live lightning storms on RTE TWO at the moment for the Irish match away in Paris

Burts Bee · 28-05-2018 7:48pm

A seriously dirty looking sky to the south east of me (north cork). Gotten very humid too...

MidMan25 · 28-05-2018 7:58pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Suddenly gone off Thunderstorms.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/lightning-strike-sets-house-ablaze-as-massive-electrical-storm-sparks-chaos-36952207.html

Few miles down the road from me :eek:

Meteorite58 · 28-05-2018 8:00pm

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 29 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 30 May 2018

ISSUED 19:42 UTC Mon 28 May 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

A complicated set-up with combination of mid-level instability drifting back into southern Britain and warm, humid conditions by the afternoon that will lead to surface based convection.

ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...

Southeastern England

Elevated convection that will drift in by the end of Monday night will bring the risk of some lighting across Kent, Essex and perhaps into parts of Suffolk and London, before weakening into mid-morning. This is marginal for lightning frequency post 06z on Tuesday.

DAYTIME...

Southwestern Ireland, southern England, southern Wales

Mid-level instability will be present across southern parts of England, but surface based convection will struggle to develop despite CAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg due to a capping inversion around 800mb along with some drier mid-level air. That being said, widely distributed isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern England and Wales. It should be stressed that most areas will remain dry. If a specific area can be highlighted more confidently an upgrade to slight may be made. The strongest signal for surface based thunderstorms will be across southwestern Ireland, and a slight risk has been issued for that area.

OVERNIGHT...

Southern England

A fresh round of mid-level instability will spread out of the continent from the southeast to northwest overnight. Mid-level convection is possible quite widely from southeastern England into East Anglia and the Midlands by the end of the night. It remains uncertain how electrically active this round of mid-level instability will be. A slight risk is included for the far southeast as it arrives, but further northwest the risk remains isolated for now.

pad199207 · 28-05-2018 11:20pm

Possible rerun of last weekend in regards to thunderstorms as we get closer to this weekend coming.

Thundery Low over France moving Northwards to effect Britain and Ireland. Will be watching it closely.

JCX BXC · 29-05-2018 8:32am

Kerry airport has a chance of thunderstorms in it's TAF from 3-4pm.

Meteorite58 · 29-05-2018 12:15pm

Huge convection here in Tralee, big towers overhead.

SleetAndSnow · 29-05-2018 2:40pm

https://photos.app.goo.gl/HVCJ94EufCb785Aw5

Some highish clouds in Cork City.

weisses · 29-05-2018 3:05pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Huge convection here in Tralee, big towers overhead.

That all vanished looking at it from Dingle

Oscar Bravo · 29-05-2018 3:50pm

A few localised heavy showers near Killarney and Kenmare now.

pad199207 · 29-05-2018 4:29pm

Strike near Glencar Kerry

weisses · 29-05-2018 4:37pm

Yeah ... building up nicely looking towards Killarney

JCX BXC · 29-05-2018 4:40pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Strike near Glencar Kerry

Looks like about 4 of them now.

Comhrá · 29-05-2018 8:12pm

Sferics are very poorly depicted on the new ME radar. The one South of Kilgarvan is very indistinct and hard to see. Amazingly bad graphics.

33831249_10213538868758349_8873224879587983360_o.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=a279d3a658bb994c6a16374e2d23e10e&oe=5BBAFB56

33831249_10213538868758349_8873224879587983360_o.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=a279d3a658bb994c6a16374e2d23e10e&oe=5BBAFB56

sryanbruen · 29-05-2018 8:27pm

I'm no thunderstorm expert but convection potential seems to keep increasing on the outlook going into June as the gradients and pressure remain slack with the easterlies continuing.

Thursday and Friday still looking like very showery days with lots and lots of showers coming up from the south and even pushing further northwards this time.

Oneiric 3 · 29-05-2018 11:05pm

Ground to cloud lightning in the UK a couple of days ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27xCi8UuQEU

The Brits don't do anything by half.

John.Icy · 29-05-2018 11:13pm

That is incredible! You'd be forgiven for thinking it's CGI!

Cantona's Collars · 30-05-2018 12:46am

Some serious thunderstorms,rain and hail over Holland.

Here's a couple of videos,lots more on the site.

https://www.dumpert.nl/mediabase/7441363/a15b19c8/vakantiegroetjes_uit_wuppertal.html

https://www.dumpert.nl/mediabase/7441281/40821b79/ondertussen_op_de_a2.html

30-05-2018 9:28am

I wish people would take videos in landscape as they're meant to be taken, it's so retarded taking video in portrait , why is that so difficult for people to get ?

30-05-2018 12:36pm

Met Eireann's forecast for the week is not giving me much confidence.

tylercollins · 30-05-2018 1:56pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I wish people would take videos in landscape as they're meant to be taken, it's so retarded taking video in portrait , why is that so difficult for people to get ?

because most people now browse the internet on their phone in a portrait orientation e.g. snapchat, instagram stories, facebook stories etc

30-05-2018 1:59pm

No because people don't know any better.....

M.T. Cranium · 30-05-2018 2:51pm

Short-term guidance already looking wonky, convection over north Wales looks to be heading for Wicklow-Wexford within four or five hours.

highdef · 30-05-2018 2:58pm

Heavy showers breaking out now in Cork and Kerry

pad199207 · 30-05-2018 3:01pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Short-term guidance already looking wonky, convection over north Wales looks to be heading for Wicklow-Wexford within four or five hours.

It’s all just elevated moderate rain MT. Doubtful it will pep up as its crosses the Irish Sea.

Kermit.de.frog · 30-05-2018 3:52pm

I have my eye on Friday and Friday night to be an active day for storms in the east and northeast.

Comhrá · 30-05-2018 4:55pm

highdef wrote: »

Heavy showers breaking out now in Cork and Kerry

Interestingly in almost the exact same locations as 24 hrs. ago.

Haven't seen any lightning strikes so far though.

Meteorite58 · 30-05-2018 5:36pm

Comhra wrote: »

Interestingly in almost the exact same locations as 24 hrs. ago.

Haven't seen any lightning strikes so far though.

Yea it would appear showers breaking out most where the convection is getting most lift from the mountains and high ground. Yesterday saw some huge clouds getting up to Congestus in size but many not even producing rain ( no rain here ) must have been too much dry air aloft to keep the convection going . I was speaking to someone from Killarney and they said that they had a fair bit of lightning and torrential rain yesterday evening. Not all sferics would show up on the radar for this part of Ireland, we must get a few more receivers on the network ( must start saving ! ). Yesterdays lapse rates were not great, similar to today, must keep an eye on that.

Got just over 25C here yesterday outside Tralee near the coast.

29-5-18

FhxWcAN.png?1

Wanderer78 · 30-05-2018 5:48pm

Meteorite58 wrote:

Yea it would appear showers breaking out most where the convection is getting most lift from the mountains and high ground. Yesterday saw some huge clouds getting up to Congestus in size but many not even producing rain ( no rain here ) must have been too much dry air aloft to keep the convection going . I was speaking to someone from Killarney and they said that they had a fair bit of lightning and torrential rain yesterday evening. Not all sferics would show up on the radar for this part of Ireland, we must get a few more receivers on the network ( must start saving ! ). Yesterdays lapse rates were not great, similar to today, must keep an eye on that.

How much would it cost to setup a lightning detector system?

Comhrá · 30-05-2018 6:01pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

How much would it cost to setup a lightning detector system?

Was just about to ask the very same question! If it weren't too costly, I'd be interested in looking into it.

Meteorite58 · 30-05-2018 6:01pm

How much would it cost to setup a lightning detector system?

Was just about to ask the very same question! If it weren't too costly, I'd be interested in looking into it.

Something along the lines of these I would imagine. I think Danno might still have one of these. http://www.laoisweather.com/lightning.php

https://www.weathershop.co.uk/shop/elements/storm/ld350-lightning-detector

http://www.boltek.com/catalog/long-range-systems#prodlist

pad199207 · 30-05-2018 6:40pm

Keeping an eye on precip just exiting Liverpool. Seems to be still fairly convective. Ac cas clouds visibie here too.

Meteorite58 · 30-05-2018 6:44pm

The next 4 days showers/ thunder gets a mention in Met Eireann's forecast.

Mentioning Northern counties earlier in the day tomorrow and Western areas in the afternoon early evening. Very humid sticky night tomorrow night especially where it rained and under cloud cover. Wondering if the W looks like the most potential tomorrow evening after the heat of the day a few cb's might mature there perhaps ? .

Meteorite58 · 30-05-2018 7:00pm

Pad and Kermit mentioning Friday's potential. I would agree that it has the potential to become lively . Charts look like producing heavy rain / thunderstorms more so in the Northern half of the country at this stage with the passage of a trough and shallow LP drifting over us . Best Temperatures in the Northern half of the country and big CAPE readings coming in. Higher lapse rates and some DLS present which has been more or less non existent lately in the slack upper airs.

MidMan25 · 30-05-2018 7:19pm

Still can't quite believe what we witnessed in east Cork last Saturday. It's amazing to have experienced (by Irish standards) three extreme and completely different weather events in little over half a year.

highdef · 30-05-2018 7:19pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Keeping an eye on precip just exiting Liverpool. Seems to be still fairly convective. Ac cas clouds visibie here too.

It does seem to be intensifying as it crosses just to the north of the North Wales coast. Maybe something to keep an eye this evening although I've probably gone and jinxed it now!

Reckless Abandonment · 30-05-2018 7:45pm

highdef wrote: »

It does seem to be intensifying as it crosses just to the north of the North Wales coast. Maybe something to keep an eye this evening although I've probably gone and jinxed it now!

It's really growing on the satellite www.sat24.com

patneve2 · 30-05-2018 8:12pm

Those showers look like making it across the Irish Sea intact. North Dublin to Louth? Nothing amazing intensity wise but better than nothing. Another decent batch close to the IOM also.

Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring/Summer 2018

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