Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring/Summer 2018

highdef

Looking at satellite, it appears that there are a good few showers starting to build now, especially in Munster, as was the prediction anyway.

Meteorite58

Latest ECM, not showing huge rainfall, very localized.

pad199207

Live lightning storms on RTE TWO at the moment for the Irish match away in Paris

Burts Bee

A seriously dirty looking sky to the south east of me (north cork). Gotten very humid too...

MidMan25

Storm 10 wrote: »

Suddenly gone off Thunderstorms.


https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/lightning-strike-sets-house-ablaze-as-massive-electrical-storm-sparks-chaos-36952207.html

Few miles down the road from me :eek:

Meteorite58

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 29 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 30 May 2018

ISSUED 19:42 UTC Mon 28 May 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

A complicated set-up with combination of mid-level instability drifting back into southern Britain and warm, humid conditions by the afternoon that will lead to surface based convection.


ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...

Southeastern England

Elevated convection that will drift in by the end of Monday night will bring the risk of some lighting across Kent, Essex and perhaps into parts of Suffolk and London, before weakening into mid-morning. This is marginal for lightning frequency post 06z on Tuesday.

DAYTIME...

Southwestern Ireland, southern England, southern Wales

Mid-level instability will be present across southern parts of England, but surface based convection will struggle to develop despite CAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg due to a capping inversion around 800mb along with some drier mid-level air. That being said, widely distributed isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern England and Wales. It should be stressed that most areas will remain dry. If a specific area can be highlighted more confidently an upgrade to slight may be made. The strongest signal for surface based thunderstorms will be across southwestern Ireland, and a slight risk has been issued for that area.

OVERNIGHT...

Southern England

A fresh round of mid-level instability will spread out of the continent from the southeast to northwest overnight. Mid-level convection is possible quite widely from southeastern England into East Anglia and the Midlands by the end of the night. It remains uncertain how electrically active this round of mid-level instability will be. A slight risk is included for the far southeast as it arrives, but further northwest the risk remains isolated for now.

pad199207

Possible rerun of last weekend in regards to thunderstorms as we get closer to this weekend coming.

Thundery Low over France moving Northwards to effect Britain and Ireland. Will be watching it closely.

JCX BXC

Kerry airport has a chance of thunderstorms in it's TAF from 3-4pm.

Meteorite58

Huge convection here in Tralee, big towers overhead.

SleetAndSnow

https://photos.app.goo.gl/HVCJ94EufCb785Aw5

Some highish clouds in Cork City.

weisses

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Huge convection here in Tralee, big towers overhead.

That all vanished looking at it from Dingle

Oscar Bravo

A few localised heavy showers near Killarney and Kenmare now.

pad199207

Strike near Glencar Kerry

weisses

Yeah ... building up nicely looking towards Killarney

JCX BXC

pad199207 wrote: »

Strike near Glencar Kerry

Looks like about 4 of them now.

Comhrá

Sferics are very poorly depicted on the new ME radar. The one South of Kilgarvan is very indistinct and hard to see. Amazingly bad graphics.

sryanbruen

I'm no thunderstorm expert but convection potential seems to keep increasing on the outlook going into June as the gradients and pressure remain slack with the easterlies continuing.

Thursday and Friday still looking like very showery days with lots and lots of showers coming up from the south and even pushing further northwards this time.

Oneiric 3

Ground to cloud lightning in the UK a couple of days ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27xCi8UuQEU

The Brits don't do anything by half.

John.Icy

That is incredible! You'd be forgiven for thinking it's CGI!

Cantona's Collars

Some serious thunderstorms,rain and hail over Holland.

Here's a couple of videos,lots more on the site.

https://www.dumpert.nl/mediabase/7441363/a15b19c8/vakantiegroetjes_uit_wuppertal.html

https://www.dumpert.nl/mediabase/7441281/40821b79/ondertussen_op_de_a2.html

I wish people would take videos in landscape as they're meant to be taken, it's so retarded taking video in portrait , why is that so difficult for people to get ?

Met Eireann's forecast for the week is not giving me much confidence.

tylercollins

Deleted User wrote: »

I wish people would take videos in landscape as they're meant to be taken, it's so retarded taking video in portrait , why is that so difficult for people to get ?

because most people now browse the internet on their phone in a portrait orientation e.g. snapchat, instagram stories, facebook stories etc

No because people don't know any better.....

M.T. Cranium

Short-term guidance already looking wonky, convection over north Wales looks to be heading for Wicklow-Wexford within four or five hours.

highdef

Heavy showers breaking out now in Cork and Kerry

pad199207

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Short-term guidance already looking wonky, convection over north Wales looks to be heading for Wicklow-Wexford within four or five hours.

It’s all just elevated moderate rain MT. Doubtful it will pep up as its crosses the Irish Sea.

Kermit.de.frog

I have my eye on Friday and Friday night to be an active day for storms in the east and northeast.

Comhrá

highdef wrote: »

Heavy showers breaking out now in Cork and Kerry

Interestingly in almost the exact same locations as 24 hrs. ago.

Haven't seen any lightning strikes so far though.

Meteorite58

Comhra wrote: »

Interestingly in almost the exact same locations as 24 hrs. ago.

Haven't seen any lightning strikes so far though.

Yea it would appear showers breaking out most where the convection is getting most lift from the mountains and high ground. Yesterday saw some huge clouds getting up to Congestus in size but many not even producing rain ( no rain here ) must have been too much dry air aloft to keep the convection going . I was speaking to someone from Killarney and they said that they had a fair bit of lightning and torrential rain yesterday evening. Not all sferics would show up on the radar for this part of Ireland, we must get a few more receivers on the network ( must start saving ! ). Yesterdays lapse rates were not great, similar to today, must keep an eye on that.

Got just over 25C here yesterday outside Tralee near the coast.

29-5-18