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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring/Summer 2018
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29-03-2018 4:59pm#1
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redsteveireland wrote: »Couldn't see this anywhere so no harm in starting a thread.
Nice high cloud tops here today with strange large ice pellets that are soft and flatten and melt when hitting any surface.
Scarily dark here, but only the odd fat drop of rain.
Edit, curious '+' shaped return just east of Galway at the mo:
New Moon
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Tues looks possible for Thunderstorms / heavy showers over Ireland with an upper vortex, cold upper temps and converging lower winds and at this stage looks like enough cape to produce some sparks, more so over the East. Temperatures about 10- 12C on Tues .
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Messy sky today but enough clear skies letting convection form to produce some lightning/hail after the occluded front went through .
NASSA Pic sometime around mid day. Nice looking convection forming around Portlaois / Carlow.
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Some small chance of thunderstorms tomorrow evening perhaps as cold uppers are drawn in after the fronts go through ( perhaps up along the Atlantic seaboard ?) .More of a chance on Sat with better diurnal heating under cold air aloft with convection bubbling up from late morning. Lapse rates look good with the possible addition of decent DLS more so on the Eastern side of the country perhaps. Should be good sunny spells to produce some big heavy slow moving showers.
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Brightening up more now in Tralee 12.1C with sunshine getting through, will be interesting to see if we get some convection /Thunder activity, more so along Atlantic coastal counties perhaps. The jet partially over Ireland today and some LLS available.
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http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-04-07
Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 07 Apr 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 08 Apr 2018
ISSUED 20:22 UTC Fri 06 Apr 2018
ISSUED BY: Dan
... ENGLAND / WALES ...
On the forward side of a sharp upper trough, which will continue to dig across Iberia, a frontal wave will drift northwards across England and Wales - bringing an area of rain across Wales and W England eventually into S Scotland. On the eastern flank, and points east, elements of medium-level instability will exist which may be sporadically destabilised in association with the passage of a shortwave, moving northeast through the morning/early afternoon. Some high-based showers will be possible, capable of producing lightning - though given rather marginal instability, confidence on lightning coverage is too low to upgrade to SLGT.
... REPUBLIC OF IRELAND / NORTHERN IRELAND ...
Under the upper trough, cold air aloft will produce some reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates. Diurnal heating will allow 400-800 J/kg CAPE to build, with topography and low-level convergence aiding the development of numerous heavy showers and a few thunderstorms for the afternoon and early evening hours.
Limiting factors will be a lack of shear, resulting in messy pulse-type convection in the main, and perhaps also a hang back of cloud associated with the frontal wave over England/Wales, which may serve to dilute insolation somewhat. Nonetheless, the strongest cells could produce hail up to 1.5cm in diameter, while low-level convergence could produce a couple of funnel clouds.0 -
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http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-04-15
Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 15 Apr 2018 - 05:59 UTC Mon 16 Apr 2018
ISSUED 14:00 UTC Sat 14 Apr 2018
ISSUED BY: Dan
Upper trough will approach from the Atlantic on Sunday, cold pool aloft serving to steepen mid-level lapse rates - primarily over Ireland. A couple of occlusion/trough features will provide the focus for bands of showery rain moving NE-wards through the day, turning increasingly convective in nature in response to some diurnal heating. Some sporadic / isolated lightning is possible from the strongest cells - particular focus is given to the north Midlands into Yorkshire / Lincolnshire (and perhaps Norfolk) where low-level convergence may enhance some forced ascent, but lightning coverage is not expected to be significant enough to upgrade to SLGT.0 -
Looks fairly low chance but could have a few sferics show up overland in the afternoon early evening I would have thought with some big showers, more chance perhaps in the Western half of the country.
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Looks like it could get lively over in the UK tomorrow . Interesting to watch it develop.
Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 21 Apr 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 22 Apr 2018
ISSUED 18:44 UTC Fri 20 Apr 2018
ISSUED BY: Dan
... SATURDAY MORNING ...
Elevated showers and thunderstorms may develop on Saturday morning over the English Channel and drift north, as high ThetaW airmass advects from France into S / SW England and begins to destabilise. There is some uncertainty as to how much destabilisation may take place at this stage of the day given only subtle forcing, and then the exact track of such storms given large model guidance spread - generally Devon and Dorset, but perhaps as far east as West Sussex and as far west as Cornwall. Any storms that do form will track to the N or NW with time, into S Wales / SW Midlands by late morning/midday, though possibly with a weakening trend.
... SATURDAY AFTERNOON ...
A complex picture, with ongoing elements of elevated convection drifting north associated with plume axis across Wales and the Midlands. Forecast profiles exhibit a capping warm nose around 850-900mb; however, provided there are enough cloud breaks to provide sufficient insolation, then there is scope to erode this cap and allow surface-based thunderstorms to develop. The focus is primarily over N + E Wales, N + NW Midlands into northern England, aided by developing low-level wind convergence and orographic forcing. This very much dependent on how much mid/upper level cloud will be present from earlier elevated convection approaching from the south. Uncertainty also exists over the north/south position of areas that may be affected, and the MDT issued may need to be adjusted southwards, depending on trends.
Shear is a little on the weak side, but given the degree of potential instability (800-1,200 J/kg CAPE) hail up to 2.0cm in diameter will be possible from any stronger thunderstorms, along with frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-50mph) and some localised surface water flooding given 25-30mm PWAT.
... SATURDAY EVENING / NIGHT ...
Stronger forcing will arrive during the evening hours as the Atlantic upper trough approaches from the W - this will likely result in an increasing coverage of (mostly elevated) thunderstorms as the ThetaW plume continues to destabilise. This will happen in a rather sporadic fashion along an eastward-advancing N-S orientated line, and hence difficult to pinpoint exact areas where thunderstorms are most likely to occur.
There is some model agreement for thunderstorms to erupt over the English Channel and drift NE across areas from Hampshire eastwards to Kent - given the magnitude of instability, lightning will be frequent with any thunderstorms that do develop, with the potential for some hail from the strongest cells. A MDT may need to be introduced to these areas if confidence improves a little.
It is possible some thunderstorms could develop as far north as E/SE Scotland, or at least offshore from there over the North Sea.0 -
There's a decent-looking thunderstorm formed North of Cherbourg just now:
https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/infraPolair
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Should produce lightning when it passes over the warm land.
https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/987723333851463680
https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/987732775418695680
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Record of lightning up until this morning moving up from France into Southern the UK and a band of convection moving into Wales and travelling up through Northern counties. . Thunderstorms now moving out over the North Sea . Possibility of thunderstorms again today , more so in the SE of the UK.
Some low possibility of a few sporadic thunder showers over the Northern counties of Ireland today.
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