Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring/Summer 2018

pad199207

DOCARCH wrote: »

Dirty big cloud over me, in Dublin 16, for the last hour or so (blocking the sun), coming off the Dublin Mountains. A few rain drops from it.

Looking at it from here now the cap might be broke

Meteorite58

Bucketing down in Tralee.

Edit: torrential!!!

Kermit.de.frog

Decent convection to my immediate west and southwest here near Santry in Dublin.

With winds going more off shore tomorrow could well be seeing fireworks and some impressive storms particularly later in the day.

Not ruling out the odd rouge import later tonight but a long shot.

pauldry

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Bucketing down in Tralee.

Edit: torrential!!!

This type of weather is a mare for ME

They have so many stations on the met summary but there will be little or no rain on the Valentia or Sherkin ones making the outside observer believe...ah well it was dry in Kerry yesterday.

I remember them going on about how dry it was in the NW one time but in Tubbercurry and Letterkenny there was flash floods so these escaped the ME monthly summary.

JCX BXC

Shower east of Abbyfeale went from nothing to immense in 20 minutes.

Kermit.de.frog

Off shore wind bringing the east in to things tomorrow...



Convergence zones in the east could help spice things up as well.

pad199207

Looks like if any thunderstorms that do develop could be quite slow moving.

JCX BXC

That thunderstorm potential today was a complete flop over London.

Oscar Bravo

Knock and Shannon forecasting Thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon as well as Aldergrove(Belfast)
Aldergrove forecasting a chance some intense thunderstorms TEMPO 0110/0118 5000 +SHRA +TSRA BKN012CB(Heavy rain showers and heavy thunderstorms with rain). Should be an interesting day

Kermit.de.frog

Low cloud has swept in to Dublin.

Usually a positive sign in this area some activity is nearby or developing ironically enough.

JCX BXC

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Knock and Shannon forecasting Thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon as well as Aldergrove(Belfast)
Aldergrove forecasting a chance some intense thunderstorms TEMPO 0110/0118 5000 +SHRA +TSRA BKN012CB(Heavy rain showers and heavy thunderstorms with rain). Should be an interesting day

Shannon's Thunder forecast is for this evening, not tomorrow.

pad199207

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Low cloud has swept in to Dublin.

Usually a positive sign in this area some activity is nearby or developing ironically enough.

I dont think we will get any imports tonight K. Welsh stuff is all mush or surface based.

Bsal

UK met office is forecasting precipitation along the east from ~0800z tomorrow morning

Meteorite58

Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 01 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 02 Jun 2018

ISSUED 17:50 UTC Thu 31 May 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

Another day of widespread convection across the British Isles...


The focus of shower and thunderstorm development will shift further to the north and west on Friday, with unstable air pushing northwards through Scotland during the day. CAPE values in excess of 700 J/kg, and some pockets up to 1000 J/kg will be possible by the afternoon. Upper air profiles across northern Wales, northwestern England and into Scotland are fairly moist with PWATs of around 30mm. Drier air in the mid-levels will become a problem across southern parts of Britain, and while heavy showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible there, they will likely be isolated, and forced by weak surface convergence. Topography will also aid convective development on Friday.

Like previous days shear will remain weak, and mean that showers/thunderstorms will remain messy and pulse variety. The steering flow will take showers and thunderstorms only slowly northwards once they develop, and in western parts of Britain they may train over the same areas, giving the risk of localised flooding. Like with previous days rain totals in 1-2 hours could exceed 50mm in places giving the potential for localised flooding. Updrafts will not last particularly long so hail size will likely remain below 1cm, although cannot be ruled out.

Meteorite58

I think the AROME has been handling this kind of weather very well lately. Looks like we are in for a very lively and wet day.

Rock Lesnar

How delightful, meath looks like getting it from the east and then the south. I hate rain

jacksie66

This post has been deleted.

Meteorite58

Could be some huge rainfall totals running up along the central counties.

Gonzo

I hope this turns out to be very little rain, but I have a feeling we're not going to get off lightly. I'm far more confident of seeing heavy torrential rain rather than thunder/lightning unfortunately.

Kermit.de.frog

Couple of active cells at the moment over north west Wales moving out in to the Irish sea, likely to die out in the next couple of hours. If it was night time right now you would probably just about see the flashes in the distance from Dublin.

pad199207

I’ve a feeling tomorrow will be what they had today in England. Just a few pulse type storms but the risk of some very heavy rain but without the thunder and lightning.

50mm of Rainfall can fall in one hour in a torrential cell without thunder and lightning.

jimmynokia

Dont be putting dampners on it lads ... this could be fun, Still cant believe I missed saturday nights storm as I was still up drinking:D

average_runner

pad199207 wrote: »

I’ve a feeling tomorrow will be what they had today in England. Just a few pulse type storms but the risk of some very heavy rain but without the thunder and lightning.

50mm of Rainfall can fall in one hour in a torrential cell without thunder and lightning.

Hope so, we are going camping tomorrow

JCX BXC

Very little sprung up today outside of a bit in Kerry. Hopefully tomorrow has more convection.

Iancar29

A very messy situation tomorrow in terms of thunderstorm activity.

Good cape/instability but little to null wind shear to organise cells.

So slow moving pulse cells with low to medium lightning rates and lots of rain.

Skew T chart for midlands tomorrow showing a very moist, relatively unstable porfile.


Gonna be hard to choose a target area tomorrow for anyone heading out!

Oscar Bravo

Many parts of Mayo,Galway,Clare,Kerry will escape with a nice day tomorrow as well as the east coast

Gonzo

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Many parts of Mayo,Galway,Clare,Kerry will escape with a nice day tomorrow as well as the east coast

I hope your right, but I've a feeling the east coast could have it bad during morning rush-hour to about lunchtime?

Oscar Bravo

could well happen,but with regards lightning/thunder im gonna say places up around Enniskillen mid afternoon will have best chance. Probably will end up way off haha

MidMan25

Fair bit of Cork looks dry too including the city?

JCX BXC

No airports in ROI are currently forecasting thunder.