Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring/Summer 2018

Wanderer78 · 30-05-2018 6:48pm

Meteorite58 wrote:

Yea it would appear showers breaking out most where the convection is getting most lift from the mountains and high ground. Yesterday saw some huge clouds getting up to Congestus in size but many not even producing rain ( no rain here ) must have been too much dry air aloft to keep the convection going . I was speaking to someone from Killarney and they said that they had a fair bit of lightning and torrential rain yesterday evening. Not all sferics would show up on the radar for this part of Ireland, we must get a few more receivers on the network ( must start saving ! ). Yesterdays lapse rates were not great, similar to today, must keep an eye on that.

How much would it cost to setup a lightning detector system?

Comhrá · 30-05-2018 7:01pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

How much would it cost to setup a lightning detector system?

Was just about to ask the very same question! If it weren't too costly, I'd be interested in looking into it.

Meteorite58 · 30-05-2018 7:01pm

How much would it cost to setup a lightning detector system?

Was just about to ask the very same question! If it weren't too costly, I'd be interested in looking into it.

Something along the lines of these I would imagine. I think Danno might still have one of these. http://www.laoisweather.com/lightning.php

https://www.weathershop.co.uk/shop/elements/storm/ld350-lightning-detector

http://www.boltek.com/catalog/long-range-systems#prodlist

pad199207 · 30-05-2018 7:40pm

Keeping an eye on precip just exiting Liverpool. Seems to be still fairly convective. Ac cas clouds visibie here too.

Meteorite58 · 30-05-2018 7:44pm

The next 4 days showers/ thunder gets a mention in Met Eireann's forecast.

Mentioning Northern counties earlier in the day tomorrow and Western areas in the afternoon early evening. Very humid sticky night tomorrow night especially where it rained and under cloud cover. Wondering if the W looks like the most potential tomorrow evening after the heat of the day a few cb's might mature there perhaps ? .

Meteorite58 · 30-05-2018 8:00pm

Pad and Kermit mentioning Friday's potential. I would agree that it has the potential to become lively . Charts look like producing heavy rain / thunderstorms more so in the Northern half of the country at this stage with the passage of a trough and shallow LP drifting over us . Best Temperatures in the Northern half of the country and big CAPE readings coming in. Higher lapse rates and some DLS present which has been more or less non existent lately in the slack upper airs.

MidMan25 · 30-05-2018 8:19pm

Still can't quite believe what we witnessed in east Cork last Saturday. It's amazing to have experienced (by Irish standards) three extreme and completely different weather events in little over half a year.

highdef · 30-05-2018 8:19pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Keeping an eye on precip just exiting Liverpool. Seems to be still fairly convective. Ac cas clouds visibie here too.

It does seem to be intensifying as it crosses just to the north of the North Wales coast. Maybe something to keep an eye this evening although I've probably gone and jinxed it now!

Reckless Abandonment · 30-05-2018 8:45pm

highdef wrote: »

It does seem to be intensifying as it crosses just to the north of the North Wales coast. Maybe something to keep an eye this evening although I've probably gone and jinxed it now!

It's really growing on the satellite www.sat24.com

patneve2 · 30-05-2018 9:12pm

Those showers look like making it across the Irish Sea intact. North Dublin to Louth? Nothing amazing intensity wise but better than nothing. Another decent batch close to the IOM also.

ninebeanrows · 30-05-2018 10:03pm

patneve2 wrote: »

Those showers look like making it across the Irish Sea intact. North Dublin to Louth? Nothing amazing intensity wise but better than nothing. Another decent batch close to the IOM also.

We wishing for rain now? :pac:

highdef · 30-05-2018 10:11pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

We wishing for rain now? :pac:

I certainly wouldn't say no to some overnight rain. My waterbutt is almost empty and I'd rather not use tap water for the garden.

Danno · 30-05-2018 10:48pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Something along the lines of these I would imagine. I think Danno might still have one of these. http://www.laoisweather.com/lightning.php

https://www.weathershop.co.uk/shop/elements/storm/ld350-lightning-detector

http://www.boltek.com/catalog/long-range-systems#prodlist

I wouldn't go Boltek, the kit that is used for the lightningmaps.org would probably be the best way to go as the Astrogenic/Boltek project seems stalled/abandoned.

The kit is here: http://en.blitzortung.org/cover_your_area.php

By the way, the best map on my site is here: http://www.laoisweather.com/nexstorm.php the other link requires Java.

30-05-2018 10:54pm

I think a decent thunderstorm like last weekend won't happen this week at least, maybe just a few thunder showers with a few flashes and rumbles and that's it.

pad199207 · 30-05-2018 11:01pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think a decent thunderstorm like last weekend won't happen this week at least, maybe just a few thunder showers with a few flashes and rumbles and that's it.

To be honest man if we get one as good or better as last weekends this season we would be VERY lucky

30-05-2018 11:12pm

pad199207 wrote: »

To be honest man if we get one as good or better as last weekends this season we would be VERY lucky

Indeed, compared to the 80's early 90's something has definitely changed , those of us old enough to remember some massive storms of the 80's and early 90's would tell the younger folk that last weekends storm was nothing by comparison , good by all accounts and very exciting , had me awake all night, went to bed at 5 am lol.

Hopefully this year will produce some storms to remember that will stick in the minds of the younger storm lovers.

I'm glad I captured some of last weekends storm on video, I might post it, the best bit was towards the end but it was raining so had to take it standing in the porch so couldn't get good shots of lightning.

Meteorite58 · 30-05-2018 11:18pm

Looks like a big day of storms in the UK tomorrow.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-05-31

Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 31 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 01 Jun 2018

ISSUED 21:17 UTC Wed 30 May 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

A widespread thunderstorm outbreak is expected across southern Britain on Thursday.

Mid-level instability will spread into southern England during the morning sparking the potential for thunderstorms by mid-morning across parts of Kent, Sussex and areas south of London. As the day progresses thunderstorms will develop more widely across southern England and eventually into Wales, the Midlands and parts of East Anglia.

These storms will experience several different forcing factors. The aforementioned mid-level instability will spread further northwards into the Midlands, but should mix with surface based instability into the afternoon in response to daytime heating. CAPE values >1000 J/kg are forecast quite widely through the MDT and much of the SLGT area with PWATs in the low 30s mm. Both low-level and deep-layer shear will be weak, meaning storm modes will be messy, and largely pulse variety. Development of thunderstorms will likely occur in response to weak surface convergence, that is noted in the surface wind fields in the model, particularly from London across Bucks, Oxfordshire and Glocs.

Weak steering flow will mean that thunderstorms likely sit over the same locations for an extended time, leading to the risk localised flooding. Some areas could receive in excess of 50mm of rain in less than 1 hour. The larger thunderstorm updrafts may also be capable of supporting hail to 2.5cm.

Some uncertainty over MDT risk area as extensive low-level cloud during the morning could limit temperatures into the afternoon, and lead to lower CAPE values than the models are suggesting.

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in northwestern Scotland as well, with CAPE values over 700 J/kg forecast, however dry-midlevel conditions and capping at around 750mb will limit potential there.

pad199207 · 31-05-2018 8:59am

Met Eireann stating a high risk of thunder in East and SE tomorrow.

pad199207 · 31-05-2018 10:53am

Severe thunderstorms likely to develop later on today over Southern England and likely to transfer to SW England and Wales. I wouldnt rule out chances of some thunderstorm activity overnight tonight into the SE and E. Frequent Lightning could be a possibility again in a few areas.

Keeping an eye on it.

highdef · 31-05-2018 11:20am

Big thunderstorm is about to hit Amsterdam....this webcam could be interesting to watch....no audio though

https://webcam.nl/amsterdam/

pad199207 · 31-05-2018 11:49am

Yellow warning out now for intense rainfall. If you get as much as 50mm in the space of an hour that can easily lead to serious flash flooding.

STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Ireland
High intensity rainfall amounts in scattered thunderstorms during Friday, leading to spot flooding. As much as 50mm possible in a short time.

Issued:Thursday 31 May 2018 10:00
Valid:Friday 01 June 2018 12:00 to Friday 01 June 2018 22:00

Tomorrows Forecast "Many of the showers will be heavy, with localised severe thunderstorm activity, spot flooding and lightning strikes. "

Im surprised its not an orange warning given those rainfall predictions.

Storm 10 · 31-05-2018 11:55am

Skyline webcams are brilliant for the UK, here is one for Brighton which will probably have a storm or two.

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/united-kingdom/england/brighton/brighton.html

Newlyn

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/united-kingdom/england/newlyn/newlyn.html

St Ives

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/united-kingdom/england/st-ives/st-ives.html

jimmynokia · 31-05-2018 12:56pm

Weather on the news sounded encouraging

Meteorite58 · 31-05-2018 1:05pm

This looks like the big weather event for tomorrow. The warnings could easily step up. Will make for dangerous testing driving conditions. Power could very easily be knocked out in places. One to watch closely.

JCX BXC · 31-05-2018 1:17pm

Strike in North West Kerry, looking south it looks quite cloudy with well developed convection.

Meteorite58 · 31-05-2018 1:24pm

Yea getting dull here for the first time in days as the clouds are tending to merge, what gaps are there can see high convection. Can see on radar heavy rain a few Km's away but dry here in Tralee. Humid and warm, no readings but 20+ I'd imagine.