FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Lumi · 02-03-2018 9:44am #1

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

Donegal Storm · 03-03-2018 11:29am

A few model runs hinting at the possibility of an extreme blizzard next weekend

MidMan25 · 03-03-2018 11:30am

Donegal Storm wrote: »

A few model runs hinting at the possibility of an extreme blizzard next weekend

Oh god, please no!

03-03-2018 11:54am

Donegal Storm wrote: »

A few model runs hinting at the possibility of an extreme blizzard next weekend

Atlantic origins for that easterly airflow though. Uppers wouldn’t be great, especially in the south. Snow weariness could be setting in after the last few days epic events.........

Donegal Storm · 03-03-2018 12:09pm

Yeah the chart I posted would probably be sleet transitioning to rain, just highlighting the possibility as the 12z ECMWF yesterday had a similar system. No point looking at exact track or finer details as it'd only take a slight shift in track for another all snow event

Highly unlikely it'll actually happen obviously and I sincerely hope it doesn't, warm and settled from now on please

03-03-2018 12:31pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Yeah the chart I posted would probably be sleet transitioning to rain, just highlighting the possibility as the 12z ECMWF yesterday had a similar system. No point looking at exact track or finer details as it'd only take a slight shift in track for another all snow event

Highly unlikely it'll actually happen obviously and I sincerely hope it doesn't, warm and settled from now on please

Speaking of warm, the 2m temp chart appears to show a brief invasion of spring into central & northern France for the same time.

pad199207 · 03-03-2018 2:33pm

Spring he says

Neddyusa · 03-03-2018 3:40pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Yeah the chart I posted would probably be sleet transitioning to rain, just highlighting the possibility as the 12z ECMWF yesterday had a similar system. No point looking at exact track or finer details as it'd only take a slight shift in track for another all snow event

Highly unlikely it'll actually happen obviously and I sincerely hope it doesn't, warm and settled from now on please

Whatever about warm. ...really hoping for some dry weather.

Many months now since we've had a decent spell of high pressure here in the West.

This cold spell is the only one i ever remember to drop a huge fall of snow without a period of HP building afterwards.

Any body able to find a decent anticyclone, even in FI??

03-03-2018 3:51pm

Neddyusa wrote: »

Any body able to find a decent anticyclone, even in FI??

The faintest of faint signals in far FI...........

sdanseo · 04-03-2018 6:42pm

No danger of a blizzard on the 6z (edit: 00z) ECM for next weekend, but 951mb! Worth keeping a close eye on, at the minute it tracks over Cornwall at 970mb a few hours later.

sryanbruen · 04-03-2018 7:33pm

UKMO 12z shows this low as deep as the above, seems like this low certainly needs monitoring!

Elmer Blooker · 04-03-2018 8:43pm

Let's get the show on the road ......... again!

ECM1-240.GIF?04-0

UKMO 12z shows this low as deep as the above, seems like this low certainly needs monitoring!

Could it drag down Arctic air behind it?

sdanseo · 04-03-2018 8:49pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Let's get the show on the road ......... again!

Could it drag down Arctic air behind it?

Maybe? 12Z ECM shows it crashing headlong into Normandy

Meteorite58 · 04-03-2018 8:54pm

ECM, ICON, GEM and GFS all showing that large area of LP skirt by the S keeping the strongest winds to the S of the system down around France on the present runs.

Have to see will it drift more North as they often do or keep a Southerly tract. Could have some heavy rainfall associated with this system.

The Jet looks fractured and weak atm, in general keeping to the S of Ireland. I cant see any clear pattern after that apart from a mix of mild and cold temps associated with LP systems as they go through. March Weather.

ys2gSGA.gif?1

Elmer Blooker · 05-03-2018 12:20am

Very similar to the ECM chart I posted earlier, unusual agreement so far out in FI land.

gfs-0-234.png?18

typhoony · 05-03-2018 11:43am

a succession of Low pressure systems travelling on a southerly course, a good distance south of Ireland then swinging up through northern france then into the UK, seen these synoptics before in March and they usually result in a dumping of snow for the Midlands of the UK. I think we'll have quite benign weather with a gradual warmup and more sunshine if the winds swing around to a light more west or north west

Nettle Soup · 05-03-2018 12:44pm

Neddyusa wrote: »

Whatever about warm. ...really hoping for some dry weather.

Many months now since we've had a decent spell of high pressure here in the West.

This cold spell is the only one i ever remember to drop a huge fall of snow without a period of HP building afterwards.

Any body able to find a decent anticyclone, even in FI??

It was very very dry for a week before the snows came. Lovely weather if a tad chilly.

Look at the water level drops here on the River Corrib during February alone;

https://waterlevel.ie/0000030098/0001/

sryanbruen · 05-03-2018 5:32pm

12z runs (plus ECM 0z) delay the low to Sunday instead of Saturday, also less deeper and further southwards, especially on the GFS.

06-03-2018 12:31am

A warm Paddy's Day may not be happening.

pauldry · 06-03-2018 2:43pm

No your right

Looking at the charts there isnt a warm regime at all showing. The cold temperatures are locked in but more a 4 to 7c type number of days than 0 to 3c.

However if that FI Paddys day came true it would be only 1c or 2c

Harry Palmr · 06-03-2018 6:19pm

I'm struck by just how "messy" the pressure patterns are, no real structured sturdy west to east pattern just a bunch of lows bumping into us and rotating for a few days.

Elmer Blooker · 06-03-2018 9:29pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I'm struck by just how "messy" the pressure patterns are, no real structured sturdy west to east pattern just a bunch of lows bumping into us and rotating for a few days.

Very messy. I looked at this chart earlier and scratched my head!

First of all look at the areas of low pressure between Greenland and Scandinavia, this normally means there "should" an Azores high but instead theres a complex area of low pressure and a very southerly jet. We're in the middle with no weather! Never seen anything like it.

fax72s.gif?0

CardinalJ · 07-03-2018 10:05am

Does anyone have more uo to date charts for 17th 18th? Need to know should I buy wedding insurance or not!

Hooter23 · 07-03-2018 11:49am

The bbc weather showed possible snow Saturday for parts of ireland...doubt it though

sryanbruen · 07-03-2018 8:23pm

Well out into FI at +240 hrs but ECM 12z shows the prospects here of a second easterly occurring at the end of March. This is a very unlikely occurrence at this stage but of course not impossible given the state of the zonal winds by then going into reverse.

nacho libre · 07-03-2018 11:24pm

graphe_ens3_php.png.5ba3bd69cc6c79664d9e5f44fe41591b.png

Another ecm phantom easterly incoming at day 10? A lot of you will be hoping so

I would love one more blast of cold before Spring gets going.

sdanseo · 07-03-2018 11:29pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Another ecm phantom easterly at day 10? A lot of you will be hoping so

I would love one more blast of cold before Spring gets going.

That chart is for 57N 24 E?

240hrs Op @ Ireland

ECU0-240.GIF?07-0

nacho libre · 07-03-2018 11:33pm

sdanseo wrote: »

That chart is for 57N 24 E?

240hrs Op @ Ireland

It's what might happen after that, there is cold building to the north east. It would be interesting to see the day 12 chart.

NAGDEFI · 08-03-2018 12:33am

I was always told March could come in like a lion and go out like a lamb, or, could come in like a lamb and out like a lion..

Maybe this year March will come in like a lion, have a brief siesta, and then go out like a lion:)

Kermit.de.frog · 08-03-2018 5:21am

Just some minor signs this morning that an easterly may be possible in the medium term. Just signals for now.

sryanbruen · 08-03-2018 1:06pm

The ECM 00z ensemble cluster at +360 hrs does show blocking of some sort later this month. Definitely no signs of Spring here. Either very wet, cool and potentially a bit stormy or cold and wet with the chance of snow.

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/971526479724138496

GFS 06z has backed off from the Siberian cold getting into Europe around the middle of March. Obviously don't take this as a new trend because it's one run and it's well out into FI, expect lots of turns. Nevertheless, it's still showing some deep cold going to take place over Siberia.

No changes really on the zonal wind speeds, a reversion is still expected to take place towards the third week of March. We still have very weak zonal wind speeds at the moment as you can see from the blue line (the actual zonal wind speeds) below the black line (the average zonal wind speeds).

sryanbruen · 08-03-2018 5:51pm

UKMO 12z is teasing an easterly to take place. High pressure is forming to the east of Europe trying to go up to Scandinavia as the low pressure stalls over Ireland.

GFS 12z gets here too by +240hrs.

Low pressure stalling over Ireland, Scandinavian High forming. Two precursors to an easterly, let's see how she goes.

George Sunsnow · 08-03-2018 5:56pm

We’d be much better off if the fledgling azores high to the southwest on that ukmo model ridged northeast
Snow and cold with all due respect can Feck off now
That’s my hopecast based on that chart
Low teens next week anyway,that’s a start

patneve2 · 08-03-2018 6:24pm

The trend is for a quite decent pooling of frigid air over far NE Europe with 1 or maybe 2 final cold waves coming down somewhere in Europe before winter is over. Anybody fancy some nice April snow? Funnily enough it was a snowfall in mid April 1999 that ignited my passion for cold and snowy weather. 6cm in Dublin airport that morning, melted by midday.

George Sunsnow · 08-03-2018 8:15pm

I don’t disagree on the probability whilst the jet is into Morocco
However when that rebounds back to where it’s supposed to be,any residual cold will move further east into Russia never hopefully to bother Ireland at least (maybe briefly east anglia) untill next winter
I’d expect that by the time further artic leakage occurs that the jet will be back hopefully before

nacho libre · 08-03-2018 8:37pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I
I’d expect that by the time further artic leakage occurs that the jet will be back hopefully before

Hopefully not. As when the zonal winds reverse it will take some time for the jet to return to normal. Bring on a late Match or April snow storm, ala 1917:D
If the possibility of an Easterly is mentioned in the latest UKMO update then it might be time to take notice.

George Sunsnow · 08-03-2018 8:43pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Hopefully not. As when the zonal winds reverse it will take some time for the jet to return to normal. Bring on a late Match or April snow storm, ala 1917:D
If the possibility of an Easterly is mentioned in the latest UKMO update then it might be time to take notice.

The jet isn’t going to stay barreling into Morocco for 4 or 5 weeks on the trot,it would be unprecedented ,the Sahara would flood
No nature I expect will say enough is enough and the jet will move more north
You’d need the jet down there for at least another fortnight for Siberian balls to be played
Highly unlikely,it’s a scientists fantasy in my opinion and it better be only that
I never rule out anything

nacho libre · 08-03-2018 9:04pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The jet isn’t going to stay barreling into Morocco for 4 or 5 weeks on the trot,it would be unprecedented ,the Sahara would flood
No nature I expect will say enough is enough and the jet will move more north
You’d need the jet down there for at least another fortnight for Siberian balls to be played
Highly unlikely,it’s a scientists fantasy in my opinion and it better be only that
I never rule out anything

While it's unlikely, as you say can't we rule anything out. Nature has been flipped on its head at the moment.
We are in unprecedented territory with the major straospheric warming followed by an even more extreme Canadian warming(which has never happened before in February) - without which our easterly would likely have failed.
As a result we have seen bizzare charts in the last couple of weeks.
Also as i mentioned in the other thread after December 2010, you'd have probably said it was highly unlikely you'd see an event akin to 1982 within 8 years.
Whatever happens strat experts will be studying the year 2018 for years to come. It seems we have a long way to go in fully understanding what goes on up there.

nacho libre · 08-03-2018 9:26pm

Close to round 2, albeit not as severe, if this verifies.

Also I notice the UKMO are in fact hinting at the possibility.

BLIZZARD7 · 08-03-2018 9:37pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Close to round 2, albeit not as severe, if this verifies.

Also I notice the UKMO are in fact hinting at the possibility.

Yeah I always thought that 2-3 weeks after the initial blast we would see some sort of reload, how severe that may be is anyone's guess. It would be very unusual to see another potent blast but given the unusual strat developments I wouldn't rule it out. The Jet is all over the place still.

Paddy's weekend/following week to turn cold to very cold under a flow somehwere North of East is my call. Winter to have atleast one more go at us.

George Sunsnow · 08-03-2018 9:44pm

They may be studying rare events but they’re also studying normality
I haven’t had a 1982 since 1982
Long time

2010 was fine it happened in winter at the start of winter
I see no evidence that this episode will continue into summer as some fringe lunatics (none here) would like
So expect me to look for signs of spring in this thread tbh and only comment on wintry weather if it’s at greater than 50% probability
Currently I’d put it at 10

BLIZZARD7 · 08-03-2018 9:55pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

They may be studying rare events but they’re also studying normality
I haven’t had a 1982 since 1982
Long time

2010 was fine it happened in winter at the start of winter
I see no evidence that this episode will continue into summer as some fringe lunatics (none here) would like
So expect me to look for signs of spring in this thread tbh and only comment on wintry weather if it’s at greater than 50% probability
Currently I’d put it at 10

Yeah to be fair I would also enjoy warmer weather at this stage but I never turn my back on snow. I would go for a 50% chance of a colder spell before months end and a 10-15% chance of it being severe. Only basing this on our highly unusual current setup from a northern Hemisphere point of view and also I'm expecting this blank sun to really start to show its hand in the coming months.
It would not surprise me if we end the month with An IMT close to March 2013.

Anyway time will tell, hopefully our summer ends up dry and sunny and not like every other recent summer of years ending with the number 8.

nacho libre · 08-03-2018 10:16pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

They may be studying rare events but they’re also studying normality
I haven’t had a 1982 since 1982
Long time

There are people in your county who say last week was equivalent to what happened in 1982. One thing is for certain, despite our love to complain, we are better equipped now to handle major snowfall now than we were back then. So perhaps your perception has been altered.

I do however agree such events are rare here. Some of us, if not most of us posting here, will more than likely be dead before an event like last week happens again.

George Sunsnow · 08-03-2018 11:15pm

Oh I had more snow than in 1982
That’s just because Emma dropped more moisture into the cold
The drifts in 82 lasted a month though because they were twice the size of Emma’s and had a week long freeze before a thaw
They won’t this time
Why were they smaller drifts?
Because here anyway Emma ripple drifted
It dropped drifts in the middle of fields aswell as at ditches meaning it’s drifts weren’t as high but they could have been

If the jet returns north, and it will, artic spillage will be muted on our side of Europe
It would be very unusual for it to stay put that far south outside of the norm for a month which it would be in 2 weeks time

nacho libre · 08-03-2018 11:27pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

If the jet returns north, and it will, artic spillage will be muted on our side of Europe
It would be very unusual for it to stay put that far south outside of the norm for a month which it would be in 2 weeks time

The zonal winds are very weak now, and they are set to reverse after the third week in March, it would be unlikely the jet can return to its normal abode before April. It's not a certainity but it's very unlikely. As i keep saying we are in unprecedented territory. A few days of an easterly or a north easterly is not the form horse, more likely a continuation of the current situation, but when the UKMO mention the possibility it's worth taking note of.

JCX BXC · 08-03-2018 11:31pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Why were they smaller drifts?

Because the snow was wetter? Here in West Clare all drifts stopped when the temperature snook a little above 0c.

George Sunsnow · 09-03-2018 12:41am

JCX BXC wrote: »

Because the snow was wetter? Here in West Clare all drifts stopped when the temperature snook a little above 0c.

Oh I agree as one explanation where that was the case in an area too
I don’t think the temp went above zero during the entire storm here,even the wet bulb
The snow never went flakey either
I just think in this area it was sheer quantity of snow
I walked across a 20 acre field during the storm Friday morning and I was Wellington deep,knee deep waist deep Wellington deep knee deep etc at various stages (and there was snow underneath that,I wasn’t sinking full depth)
The wind wasn’t fit to blow it all
Hence it’s still around today in great measure a week later despite several rains and lots of warm sunshine
That storm truly was a taste of Boston at home

Anyway we better shut up! This is the model output thread

nacho libre · 09-03-2018 4:33pm

Judah Cohen @judah47

It is late in the winter but this latest #PolarVortex forecast is supportive of yet another drainage of #cold air from Siberia towards Europe. #BeastFromTheEast, the sequel.

Ding. Ding.

Kermit.de.frog · 09-03-2018 5:28pm

There are signals there I pointed out the night before last. Seeing this drift in to some of the models. UKMO in particular but the GFS as well in upping thise heights over Scandinavia again...

gfs-0-192.png?12

Delicate evolutions though...

nacho libre · 09-03-2018 7:01pm

gfs-1-240.png.220d601fa93abffc9daf17d36a05ad7f.png

Getting Closer.

Hopefully M.T. Cranium is wrong, and it makes its way to Ireland in time for Easter:D

With April snowfall in mind, here is an article from the late Philip Eden about a snowfall in April 1908:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/The-1908-snowstorm.htm

Elmer Blooker · 09-03-2018 7:10pm

I've noticed that we could have a very cold second half of March but I'm not sure if I have the energy or interest for another chase.
The SSW and the most exciting charts we've seen in years had this forum buzzing and all for what? - a three day cold snap. Time for a break and here's hoping for next winter.

FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST