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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Lumi

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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sryanbruen

The ECM 00z ensemble cluster at +360 hrs does show blocking of some sort later this month. Definitely no signs of Spring here. Either very wet, cool and potentially a bit stormy or cold and wet with the chance of snow.

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/971526479724138496

GFS 06z has backed off from the Siberian cold getting into Europe around the middle of March. Obviously don't take this as a new trend because it's one run and it's well out into FI, expect lots of turns. Nevertheless, it's still showing some deep cold going to take place over Siberia.

No changes really on the zonal wind speeds, a reversion is still expected to take place towards the third week of March. We still have very weak zonal wind speeds at the moment as you can see from the blue line (the actual zonal wind speeds) below the black line (the average zonal wind speeds).

Kermit.de.frog

Just some minor signs this morning that an easterly may be possible in the medium term. Just signals for now.

NAGDEFI

I was always told March could come in like a lion and go out like a lamb, or, could come in like a lamb and out like a lion..

Maybe this year March will come in like a lion, have a brief siesta, and then go out like a lion:)

nacho libre

sdanseo wrote: »

That chart is for 57N 24 E?

240hrs Op @ Ireland

It's what might happen after that, there is cold building to the north east. It would be interesting to see the day 12 chart.

sdanseo

nacho libre wrote: »

Another ecm phantom easterly at day 10? A lot of you will be hoping so

I would love one more blast of cold before Spring gets going.

That chart is for 57N 24 E?

240hrs Op @ Ireland

ECU0-240.GIF?07-0

nacho libre

graphe_ens3_php.png.5ba3bd69cc6c79664d9e5f44fe41591b.png

Another ecm phantom easterly incoming at day 10? A lot of you will be hoping so

I would love one more blast of cold before Spring gets going.

sryanbruen

Well out into FI at +240 hrs but ECM 12z shows the prospects here of a second easterly occurring at the end of March. This is a very unlikely occurrence at this stage but of course not impossible given the state of the zonal winds by then going into reverse.

Hooter23

The bbc weather showed possible snow Saturday for parts of ireland...doubt it though

CardinalJ

Does anyone have more uo to date charts for 17th 18th? Need to know should I buy wedding insurance or not!

Elmer Blooker

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I'm struck by just how "messy" the pressure patterns are, no real structured sturdy west to east pattern just a bunch of lows bumping into us and rotating for a few days.

Very messy. I looked at this chart earlier and scratched my head!

First of all look at the areas of low pressure between Greenland and Scandinavia, this normally means there "should" an Azores high but instead theres a complex area of low pressure and a very southerly jet. We're in the middle with no weather! Never seen anything like it.

fax72s.gif?0

Harry Palmr

I'm struck by just how "messy" the pressure patterns are, no real structured sturdy west to east pattern just a bunch of lows bumping into us and rotating for a few days.

pauldry

No your right

Looking at the charts there isnt a warm regime at all showing. The cold temperatures are locked in but more a 4 to 7c type number of days than 0 to 3c.

However if that FI Paddys day came true it would be only 1c or 2c

[Deleted User]

A warm Paddy's Day may not be happening.

sryanbruen

12z runs (plus ECM 0z) delay the low to Sunday instead of Saturday, also less deeper and further southwards, especially on the GFS.

Nettle Soup

Neddyusa wrote: »

Whatever about warm. ...really hoping for some dry weather.

Many months now since we've had a decent spell of high pressure here in the West.

This cold spell is the only one i ever remember to drop a huge fall of snow without a period of HP building afterwards.

Any body able to find a decent anticyclone, even in FI??

It was very very dry for a week before the snows came. Lovely weather if a tad chilly.

Look at the water level drops here on the River Corrib during February alone;

https://waterlevel.ie/0000030098/0001/

typhoony

a succession of Low pressure systems travelling on a southerly course, a good distance south of Ireland then swinging up through northern france then into the UK, seen these synoptics before in March and they usually result in a dumping of snow for the Midlands of the UK. I think we'll have quite benign weather with a gradual warmup and more sunshine if the winds swing around to a light more west or north west

Elmer Blooker

Very similar to the ECM chart I posted earlier, unusual agreement so far out in FI land.

gfs-0-234.png?18

Meteorite58

ECM, ICON, GEM and GFS all showing that large area of LP skirt by the S keeping the strongest winds to the S of the system down around France on the present runs.

Have to see will it drift more North as they often do or keep a Southerly tract. Could have some heavy rainfall associated with this system.

The Jet looks fractured and weak atm, in general keeping to the S of Ireland. I cant see any clear pattern after that apart from a mix of mild and cold temps associated with LP systems as they go through. March Weather.

ys2gSGA.gif?1

sdanseo

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Let's get the show on the road ......... again!

Could it drag down Arctic air behind it?

Maybe? 12Z ECM shows it crashing headlong into Normandy

Elmer Blooker

Let's get the show on the road ......... again!

ECM1-240.GIF?04-0

UKMO 12z shows this low as deep as the above, seems like this low certainly needs monitoring!

Could it drag down Arctic air behind it?

sryanbruen

UKMO 12z shows this low as deep as the above, seems like this low certainly needs monitoring!

sdanseo

No danger of a blizzard on the 6z (edit: 00z) ECM for next weekend, but 951mb! Worth keeping a close eye on, at the minute it tracks over Cornwall at 970mb a few hours later.

[Deleted User]

Neddyusa wrote: »

Any body able to find a decent anticyclone, even in FI??

The faintest of faint signals in far FI...........

Neddyusa

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Yeah the chart I posted would probably be sleet transitioning to rain, just highlighting the possibility as the 12z ECMWF yesterday had a similar system. No point looking at exact track or finer details as it'd only take a slight shift in track for another all snow event

Highly unlikely it'll actually happen obviously and I sincerely hope it doesn't, warm and settled from now on please

Whatever about warm. ...really hoping for some dry weather.

Many months now since we've had a decent spell of high pressure here in the West.

This cold spell is the only one i ever remember to drop a huge fall of snow without a period of HP building afterwards.

Any body able to find a decent anticyclone, even in FI??

pad199207

Spring he says

[Deleted User]

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Yeah the chart I posted would probably be sleet transitioning to rain, just highlighting the possibility as the 12z ECMWF yesterday had a similar system. No point looking at exact track or finer details as it'd only take a slight shift in track for another all snow event

Highly unlikely it'll actually happen obviously and I sincerely hope it doesn't, warm and settled from now on please

Speaking of warm, the 2m temp chart appears to show a brief invasion of spring into central & northern France for the same time.

Donegal Storm

Yeah the chart I posted would probably be sleet transitioning to rain, just highlighting the possibility as the 12z ECMWF yesterday had a similar system. No point looking at exact track or finer details as it'd only take a slight shift in track for another all snow event

Highly unlikely it'll actually happen obviously and I sincerely hope it doesn't, warm and settled from now on please

[Deleted User]

Donegal Storm wrote: »

A few model runs hinting at the possibility of an extreme blizzard next weekend

Atlantic origins for that easterly airflow though. Uppers wouldn’t be great, especially in the south. Snow weariness could be setting in after the last few days epic events.........

MidMan25

Donegal Storm wrote: »

A few model runs hinting at the possibility of an extreme blizzard next weekend

Oh god, please no!

Donegal Storm

A few model runs hinting at the possibility of an extreme blizzard next weekend